The Relative Strength Index (RSI), is one of the most popular indicators used in Technical Analysis. Firstly Introduced in J. Welles Wilder’s book, “New Concepts in Technical Trading Systems”, the RSI is a momentum oscillator that measures the velocity of directional price movement and scaled between 0-100. In the classic view, security is thought to be overbought when its RSI reading is above 70 and oversold when its RSI reading falls below 30.submitted by Onah92 to technicalanalysis [link] [comments]
# How is it Calculated?The equation for the Relative Strength Index, RSI, is:
For the first calculation of the Relative Strength Index, RSI, we need the previous 14 day’s close prices. The initial RSI is calculated as follows:
# How to Use it CorrectlyIf used properly, the RSI can be a very valuable tool in interpreting chart movement.
Tops and Bottoms: These are indicated when the Index goes above 70 or below 30. The Index will usually top out or bottom out before the actual market top or bottom, giving an indication that a reversal or at least a significant reaction is imminent.
Failure Swings: When the RSI crosses down the 70 level and rebounds back up yet fails to reach the previous high. The low point made when the RSI rebounded is considered as a potential short entry point when the RSI moves below this level. Conversely, when the RSI crosses up over the 30 level and rebounds back down but fails to move as low as the previous low reading, it is a failure swing. The peak made when the RSI rebounded is considered a potential long entry point when the RSI moves above this level.
Support and Resistance: Areas of support and resistance often show up clearly on the RSI before becoming apparent on the bar chart. In fact, support and resistance lines drawn using the RSI points are often analogous to trend lines drawn using bar chart points.
Divergence: Divergence between price action and the RSI is a very strong indicator of a market turning point. Divergence occurs when the RSI is increasing while the price movement is either flat or decreasing. Conversely, divergence occurs when the RSI is decreasing price movement is either flat or increasing.
Here is an example of a bullish divergence on BTC/USD (Bitcoin) which signaled the bullish trend occurred after that:
As you can see, a bullish divergence formed in November-December of 19. The bullish divergence formed with Bitcoin moving to new lows in December and RSI holding above its prior low. The mid-December breakout confirmed improving momentum. Divergences tend to be more robust when they form after an overbought or oversold reading.
# SummaryThe Relative Strength Index (RSI), used in conjunction with a bar chart, can provide a new dimension of interpretation for the chart trader. No single tool, method or system is going to produce the right answers 100% of the time. A successful trader utilizes several different kinds of input into his decisions. The Relative Strength Index can be a valuable input to your toolbox and into your decision-making process.
Table 1: Days LeadOut of 1334 days in the analysis, Bitmex futures leads the discovery in 571 days or nearly 43% of the duration. Bitfinex leads for 501 days. Bitfinex's high number is due to its extreme dominance in the early days.
Table 2: Correlation between the close price and Exchange's dominance indexBinance, Huobi, CME, and OkCoin had the most significant correlation with the close price. Bitmex, Coinbase, Bitfinex, and Bitstamp's dominance were negatively correlated. This was very interesting. To know more, I captured a yearwise correlation.
https://preview.redd.it/0itz6rhbxs951.jpg?width=2400&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=ee51217e32d7e10f5510e86de00653161108f35asubmitted by Blockchain_org to BlockchainStartups [link] [comments]
Curious to know about cryptocurrency trading? Have you ever wondered how to do cryptocurrency trading? If yes, then you have landed on the right page. This article illustrates the concept of cryptocurrency trading.
Cryptocurrencies can be sold and bought through exchanges. Bitcoin is one of the most popular cryptocurrencies. There is no doubt that the demand for bitcoin certification is expanding day by day. The value of cryptocurrency is rising every day. The market sector of cryptocurrency is decentralized. Hence, there is no central authority like the government. The transactions of cryptocurrency are not managed by any financial institutions or banks. Cryptos operates across a network of systems.
What is Cryptocurrency?
A cryptocurrency is an encrypted form of decentralized digital money that can be transferred between individuals. It doesn’t exist as a physical object. This currency exists only in digital form. The nature of cryptocurrencies is volatile. They are totally unstable currencies. Each and every cryptocurrency is identified and coded based on complicated digital algorithms. It is basically a digital coin designed to do virtual transactions. Blockchain is the technology behind cryptocurrency. Blockchain technology is a digitally recorded register of data.
Top blockchain certifications in cryptocurrency will provide you deep insight into the cryptocurrency sector.
What is Cryptocurrency Trading?
Crypto training permits traders to buy cryptocurrency. The trading of crypto is the action of guessing on cryptocurrency cost movements through selling/buying coins or CFD trading accounts. CFD trading doesn’t take ownership of the coins. You need to put a small amount of deposit to gain exposure to the crypto market. You can sell or buy cryptocurrency through an exchange. A Certified Cryptocurrency Trader is a certified individual who understands the detailed working process of cryptocurrency trading.
Basic Tips For Cryptocurrency Trading
The market of cryptocurrency transforms very fast. Several new cryptocurrencies are born and others disappear. There are several different kinds of factors that push the cost of cryptocurrencies down or up. You should definitely consider the following points before you start trading Ethereum, Bitcoin or any other cryptocurrency.
Let’s discuss some of the basic tips for trading cryptocurrency
· The first and basic rule for cryptocurrency trading is to sell high and buy low
· The first thing you should keep in mind while doing crypto trading is that the cost is exceptionally volatile
· The two important factors to be examined before crypto tradings are fundamental analysis and technical analysis
· The fundamental analysis considers the vulnerability of the crypto market sector
· The technical analysis consist of research for financial assets
· It is very crucial to follow news on digital currency. This will further help to select the best cryptocurrency
· Select your trading platform based on leverage available, currencies available, minimum investment and trading features
How To Get Started Trading Cryptocurrency?
Cryptocurrencies are traded 24/7. The trading process of cryptocurrency is the same as that of fiat money except for the fact that there are Ethereum or Bitcoin instead of US dollars. Cryptocurrencies permit traders to modify their portfolio of investment. The price of cryptocurrency is analyzed by market supply, demand and sentiment.
Let’s discuss steps of how to get started crypto trading
We hope that we provide you the answers you were looking for. The market of cryptocurrency is constantly increasing and provides several opportunities for traders. You should be very careful while doing cryptocurrency trading. Crypto trading is not a game. The real money is involved in crypto trading.
If you want to explore more about masters in cryptocurrencies traders, then you can check out the website of Blockchain Council.
As the most anticipated blockchain project this year, the advantages of Polkadot (The token ‘s abbreviation is DOT, hereinafter referred to as DOT) in terms of technology and ecology are no need to repeat again in that a large number of articles have conducted in-depth analysis of this.submitted by SimonZhu666 to MXCexchange [link] [comments]
This article will try to analyze from a new perspective whether DOT has the potential to become a new financing method for the industry, and on this premise, analyze its development and prospects.
At the same time, this article will also point out how we ordinary investors can obtain the benefits of Polkadot and its related ecological projects.
Whether Polkadot Can Become A New Financing Method to Determine the Project Ceiling?
At present, the blockchain project's own business cannot generate cash flow. The circulating market value and token price are completely affected by the inflow and outflow of funds, resulting in business such as lock-up, token burning, and DeFi to stimulate the needs of buying.
Therefore, whether a project can become a new financing method will determine the ceiling value of the project's market value and token price.
For example, the emergence of Ethereum in 2017 led to the rise of ICO, which gave birth to a unique blockchain format that development after financing. For the ICO project based on ERC20, because the early development is based on the Ethereum public chain, its financing is conducted in Ethereum.
CoinMarketCap data shows that the price of ETH was $8.13 on January 1, 2017, and the highest price for the year was $879.12. On December 31, 2017, ETH closed at $726.56, an annual increase of 89.37 times, and the highest increase was 108.13 times.
Similarly, the IEO rose in 2019 has made the token of an exchange a new financing method. The platform token represented by BNB all achieved good gains in that year.
Can Polkadot Become A New Financing Method?
Polkadot has the potential to become a new financing method,which mainly from three aspects:
The relay chain is equivalent to the main building of the airport, and the slot is equivalent to the gate. The flight needs to be connected to the gate to realize passenger connection.
At present, there are four types of parallel chains managed by the Web3 Foundation:
More importantly, the number of Polka Slots is limited. The initial plan increased from 5 to 50, and gradually increased to 200 thereafter.
Besides, the Web3 Foundation behind Polkadot commits large fund to incubate projects. As of now, the Web3 Foundation has incubates more than 100 projects, and all of these projects will have the opportunity to be connected to the Polkadot cross-chain.
On a offline meetup with Gavin Wood, founder of Polkadot about Substrate parallel chain construction, he said it is able to release a new blockchain based on Substrate in 15 minutes at an offline event.
This not only means that Polkadot is powerful, but also that Polkadot will attract many projects that do not focus on technology.
In fact, not all blockchain projects are good at or focus on technology research and development. Instead, most projects actually pay more attention to scene realization or capital operation.
The release of a new blockchain based on Polkadot Substrate can help these projects save a lot of time and personnel costs. Therefore it is naturally attractive to these projects.
Based on the three reasons above, Polkadot has the potential to become a new financing method.
How do ordinary investors obtain Polkadot's cross-chain conceptual income?
First of all, investors who have participated in Polkadot private sale can choose to pledge DOT on the official website https://polkadot.js.org/apps/#/accounts to obtain the POS yield as verification node.
In addition, you can also claim DOT mainnet assets on MXC for trading. On June 29, MXC announced support for Polkadot (DOT) asset mapping. Successful mapping is regarded as receiving Polkadot mainnet assets.
According to the official introduction, users can visit the MXC official website homepage, find "Assets" at the upper right corner, click "My Assets", select "Deposit", choose DOT (Polkadot) and click to get deposit address and copy.In a later stage, MXC POS Pool will also launch DOT's Staking products. Related announcement: https://mxc-exchange.zendesk.com/hc/en-001/articles/360045593011
MXC, Huobi and BTCMAX and other trading platforms have used their own foundations to participate in the private sale of the Polkadot (DOT). Therefore, the DOT/USDT trading pair on MXC is not exactly the IOU token.
Users who did not hold DOT in the early stage can consider holding it according to their own situation.
On the other hand, Poka is expected to open the transfer function in August when it will be officially launched on major exchanges. At present, KSM, EDG, PCX, AKRO and other Polkadot ecological projects have been launched on major exchanges, as shown in the figure below.
(Please note that the transfer function of the DOT is not enabled, and MXC supports DOT main network asset mapping. therefore, It is recommended to trade on MXC.)
It can be seen from the figure that the MXC currently listed most Polkadot ecological projects and is currently the main trading field of the Polkadot projects.
When there is related progress in the construction of the Polkadot network, its ecological projects tend to show a trend of linkage. For example, with the favorable news that MXC support users to claim DOT, PCX, one of the project in Polkadot ecosystem rose 5% in 24 hours and it still stay strong momentum.
In summary, how to continuously attract capital is the determinant of the market value and price of blockchain projects. The concept of a hot market at a certain stage often exists as a financing method, such as ETH,platform token, and so on.
While the slot auction, Web3.0 Foundation project incubation, and the construction based on Substrate parallel chain will help Polkadot to become the next financing method.
Ordinary investors can make arrangement on DOT and its ecological projects in advance, or pledge the DOT to obtain staking yield in ways that participate in the dividend of Polkadot development. As far as the listing projects are concerned, MXC is currently list most Polkadot projects among all exchanges, so it is expected to become the main trading field of Polkadot.
﷽submitted by aibnsamin1 to Bitcoin [link] [comments]
The Federal Reserve and the United States government are pumping extreme amounts of money into the economy, already totaling over $484 billion. They are doing so because it already had a goal to inflate the United States Dollar (USD) so that the market can continue to all-time highs. It has always had this goal. They do not care how much inflation goes up by now as we are going into a depression with the potential to totally crash the US economy forever. They believe the only way to save the market from going to zero or negative values is to inflate it so much that it cannot possibly crash that low. Even if the market does not dip that low, inflation serves the interest of powerful people.
The impending crash of the stock market has ramifications for Bitcoin, as, though there is no direct ongoing-correlation between the two, major movements in traditional markets will necessarily affect Bitcoin. According to the Blockchain Center’s Cryptocurrency Correlation Tool, Bitcoin is not correlated with the stock market. However, when major market movements occur, they send ripples throughout the financial ecosystem which necessary affect even ordinarily uncorrelated assets.
Therefore, Bitcoin will reach X price on X date after crashing to a price of X by X date.
Stock Market CrashThe Federal Reserve has caused some serious consternation with their release of ridiculous amounts of money in an attempt to buoy the economy. At face value, it does not seem to have any rationale or logic behind it other than keeping the economy afloat long enough for individuals to profit financially and politically. However, there is an underlying basis to what is going on which is important to understand in order to profit financially.
All markets are functionally price probing systems. They constantly undergo a price-discovery process. In a fiat system, money is an illusory and a fundamentally synthetic instrument with no intrinsic value – similar to Bitcoin. The primary difference between Bitcoin is the underlying technology which provides a slew of benefits that fiat does not. Fiat, however, has an advantage in being able to have the support of powerful nation-states which can use their might to insure the currency’s prosperity.
Traditional stock markets are composed of indices (pl. of index). Indices are non-trading market instruments which are essentially summaries of business values which comprise them. They are continuously recalculated throughout a trading day, and sometimes reflected through tradable instruments such as Exchange Traded Funds or Futures. Indices are weighted by market capitalizations of various businesses.
Price theory essentially states that when a market fails to take out a new low in a given range, it will have an objective to take out the high. When a market fails to take out a new high, it has an objective to make a new low. This is why price-time charts go up and down, as it does this on a second-by-second, minute-by-minute, day-by-day, and even century-by-century basis. Therefore, market indices will always return to some type of bull market as, once a true low is formed, the market will have a price objective to take out a new high outside of its’ given range – which is an all-time high. Instruments can only functionally fall to zero, whereas they can grow infinitely.
So, why inflate the economy so much?
Deflation is disastrous for central banks and markets as it raises the possibility of producing an overall price objective of zero or negative values. Therefore, under a fractional reserve system with a fiat currency managed by a central bank – the goal of the central bank is to depreciate the currency. The dollar is manipulated constantly with the intention of depreciating its’ value.
Central banks have a goal of continued inflated fiat values. They tend to ordinarily contain it at less than ten percent (10%) per annum in order for the psyche of the general populace to slowly adjust price increases. As such, the markets are divorced from any other logic. Economic policy is the maintenance of human egos, not catering to fundamental analysis. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth is well-known not to be a measure of actual growth or output. It is a measure of increase in dollars processed. Banks seek to produce raising numbers which make society feel like it is growing economically, making people optimistic. To do so, the currency is inflated, though inflation itself does not actually increase growth. When society is optimistic, it spends and engages in business – resulting in actual growth. It also encourages people to take on credit and debts, creating more fictional fiat.
Inflation is necessary for markets to continue to reach new heights, generating positive emotional responses from the populace, encouraging spending, encouraging debt intake, further inflating the currency, and increasing the sale of government bonds. The fiat system only survives by generating more imaginary money on a regular basis.
Bitcoin investors may profit from this by realizing that stock investors as a whole always stand to profit from the market so long as it is managed by a central bank and does not collapse entirely. If those elements are filled, it has an unending price objective to raise to new heights. It also allows us to realize that this response indicates that the higher-ups believe that the economy could crash in entirety, and it may be wise for investors to have multiple well-thought-out exit strategies.
Economic Analysis of BitcoinThe reason why the Fed is so aggressively inflating the economy is due to fears that it will collapse forever or never rebound. As such, coupled with a global depression, a huge demand will appear for a reserve currency which is fundamentally different than the previous system. Bitcoin, though a currency or asset, is also a market. It also undergoes a constant price-probing process. Unlike traditional markets, Bitcoin has the exact opposite goal. Bitcoin seeks to appreciate in value and not depreciate. This has a quite different affect in that Bitcoin could potentially become worthless and have a price objective of zero.
Bitcoin was created in 2008 by a now famous mysterious figure known as Satoshi Nakamoto and its’ open source code was released in 2009. It was the first decentralized cryptocurrency to utilize a novel protocol known as the blockchain. Up to one megabyte of data may be sent with each transaction. It is decentralized, anonymous, transparent, easy to set-up, and provides myriad other benefits. Bitcoin is not backed up by anything other than its’ own technology.
Bitcoin is can never be expected to collapse as a framework, even were it to become worthless. The stock market has the potential to collapse in entirety, whereas, as long as the internet exists, Bitcoin will be a functional system with a self-authenticating framework. That capacity to persist regardless of the actual price of Bitcoin and the deflationary nature of Bitcoin means that it has something which fiat does not – inherent value.
Bitcoin is based on a distributed database known as the “blockchain.” Blockchains are essentially decentralized virtual ledger books, replete with pages known as “blocks.” Each page in a ledger is composed of paragraph entries, which are the actual transactions in the block.
Blockchains store information in the form of numerical transactions, which are just numbers. We can consider these numbers digital assets, such as Bitcoin. The data in a blockchain is immutable and recorded only by consensus-based algorithms. Bitcoin is cryptographic and all transactions are direct, without intermediary, peer-to-peer.
Bitcoin does not require trust in a central bank. It requires trust on the technology behind it, which is open-source and may be evaluated by anyone at any time. Furthermore, it is impossible to manipulate as doing so would require all of the nodes in the network to be hacked at once – unlike the stock market which is manipulated by the government and “Market Makers”. Bitcoin is also private in that, though the ledge is openly distributed, it is encrypted. Bitcoin’s blockchain has one of the greatest redundancy and information disaster recovery systems ever developed.
Bitcoin has a distributed governance model in that it is controlled by its’ users. There is no need to trust a payment processor or bank, or even to pay fees to such entities. There are also no third-party fees for transaction processing. As the ledge is immutable and transparent it is never possible to change it – the data on the blockchain is permanent. The system is not easily susceptible to attacks as it is widely distributed. Furthermore, as users of Bitcoin have their private keys assigned to their transactions, they are virtually impossible to fake. No lengthy verification, reconciliation, nor clearing process exists with Bitcoin.
Bitcoin is based on a proof-of-work algorithm. Every transaction on the network has an associated mathetical “puzzle”. Computers known as miners compete to solve the complex cryptographic hash algorithm that comprises that puzzle. The solution is proof that the miner engaged in sufficient work. The puzzle is known as a nonce, a number used only once. There is only one major nonce at a time and it issues 12.5 Bitcoin. Once it is solved, the fact that the nonce has been solved is made public.
A block is mined on average of once every ten minutes. However, the blockchain checks every 2,016,000 minutes (approximately four years) if 201,600 blocks were mined. If it was faster, it increases difficulty by half, thereby deflating Bitcoin. If it was slower, it decreases, thereby inflating Bitcoin. It will continue to do this until zero Bitcoin are issued, projected at the year 2140. On the twelfth of May, 2020, the blockchain will halve the amount of Bitcoin issued when each nonce is guessed. When Bitcoin was first created, fifty were issued per block as a reward to miners. 6.25 BTC will be issued from that point on once each nonce is solved.
Unlike fiat, Bitcoin is a deflationary currency. As BTC becomes scarcer, demand for it will increase, also raising the price. In this, BTC is similar to gold. It is predictable in its’ output, unlike the USD, as it is based on a programmed supply. We can predict BTC’s deflation and inflation almost exactly, if not exactly. Only 21 million BTC will ever be produced, unless the entire network concedes to change the protocol – which is highly unlikely.
Some of the drawbacks to BTC include congestion. At peak congestion, it may take an entire day to process a Bitcoin transaction as only three to five transactions may be processed per second. Receiving priority on a payment may cost up to the equivalent of twenty dollars ($20). Bitcoin mining consumes enough energy in one day to power a single-family home for an entire week.
Trading or Investing?The fundamental divide in trading revolves around the question of market structure. Many feel that the market operates totally randomly and its’ behavior cannot be predicted. For the purposes of this article, we will assume that the market has a structure, but that that structure is not perfect. That market structure naturally generates chart patterns as the market records prices in time. In order to determine when the stock market will crash, causing a major decline in BTC price, we will analyze an instrument, an exchange traded fund, which represents an index, as opposed to a particular stock. The price patterns of the various stocks in an index are effectively smoothed out. In doing so, a more technical picture arises. Perhaps the most popular of these is the SPDR S&P Standard and Poor 500 Exchange Traded Fund ($SPY).
In trading, little to no concern is given about value of underlying asset. We are concerned primarily about liquidity and trading ranges, which are the amount of value fluctuating on a short-term basis, as measured by volatility-implied trading ranges. Fundamental analysis plays a role, however markets often do not react to real-world factors in a logical fashion. Therefore, fundamental analysis is more appropriate for long-term investing.
The fundamental derivatives of a chart are time (x-axis) and price (y-axis). The primary technical indicator is price, as everything else is lagging in the past. Price represents current asking price and incorrectly implementing positions based on price is one of the biggest trading errors.
Markets and currencies ordinarily have noise, their tendency to back-and-fill, which must be filtered out for true pattern recognition. That noise does have a utility, however, in allowing traders second chances to enter favorable positions at slightly less favorable entry points. When you have any market with enough liquidity for historical data to record a pattern, then a structure can be divined. The market probes prices as part of an ongoing price-discovery process. Market technicians must sometimes look outside of the technical realm and use visual inspection to ascertain the relevance of certain patterns, using a qualitative eye that recognizes the underlying quantitative nature
Markets and instruments rise slower than they correct, however they rise much more than they fall. In the same vein, instruments can only fall to having no worth, whereas they could theoretically grow infinitely and have continued to grow over time. Money in a fiat system is illusory. It is a fundamentally synthetic instrument which has no intrinsic value. Hence, the recent seemingly illogical fluctuations in the market.
According to trade theory, the unending purpose of a market or instrument is to create and break price ranges according to the laws of supply and demand. We must determine when to trade based on each market inflection point as defined in price and in time as opposed to abandoning the trend (as the contrarian trading in this sub often does). Time and Price symmetry must be used to be in accordance with the trend. When coupled with a favorable risk to reward ratio, the ability to stay in the market for most of the defined time period, and adherence to risk management rules; the trader has a solid methodology for achieving considerable gains.
We will engage in a longer term market-oriented analysis to avoid any time-focused pressure. The Bitcoin market is open twenty-four-hours a day, so trading may be done when the individual is ready, without any pressing need to be constantly alert. Let alone, we can safely project months in advance with relatively high accuracy. Bitcoin is an asset which an individual can both trade and invest, however this article will be focused on trading due to the wide volatility in BTC prices over the short-term.
Technical Indicator Analysis of BitcoinTechnical indicators are often considered self-fulfilling prophecies due to mass-market psychology gravitating towards certain common numbers yielded from them. They are also often discounted when it comes to BTC. That means a trader must be especially aware of these numbers as they can prognosticate market movements. Often, they are meaningless in the larger picture of things.
Trend Definition Analysis of BitcoinTrend definition is highly powerful, cannot be understated. Knowledge of trend logic is enough to be a profitable trader, yet defining a trend is an arduous process. Multiple trends coexist across multiple time frames and across multiple market sectors. Like time structure, it makes the underlying price of the instrument irrelevant. Trend definitions cannot determine the validity of newly formed discretes. Trend becomes apparent when trades based in counter-trend inflection points continue to fail.
Downtrends are defined as an instrument making lower lows and lower highs that are recurrent, additive, qualified swing setups. Downtrends for all instruments are similar, except forex. They are fast and complete much quicker than uptrends. An average downtrend is 18 months, something which we will return to. An uptrend inception occurs when an instrument reaches a point where it fails to make a new low, then that low will be tested. After that, the instrument will either have a deep range retracement or it may take out the low slightly, resulting in a double-bottom. A swing must eventually form.
A simple way to roughly determine trend is to attempt to draw a line from three tops going upwards (uptrend) or a line from three bottoms going downwards (downtrend). It is not possible to correctly draw a downtrend line on the BTC chart, but it is possible to correctly draw an uptrend – indicating that the overall trend is downwards. The only mitigating factor is the impending stock market crash.
Time Symmetry Analysis of BitcoinTime is the movement from the past through the present into the future. It is a measurement in quantified intervals. In many ways, our perception of it is a human construct. It is more powerful than price as time may be utilized for a trade regardless of the market inflection point’s price. Were it possible to perfectly understand time, price would be totally irrelevant due to the predictive certainty time affords. Time structure is easier to learn than price, but much more difficult to apply with any accuracy. It is the hardest aspect of trading to learn, but also the most rewarding.
Humans do not have the ability to recognize every time window, however the ability to define market inflection points in terms of time is the single most powerful trading edge. Regardless, price should not be abandoned for time alone. Time structure analysis It is inherently flawed, as such the markets have a fail-safe, which is Price Structure. Even though Time is much more powerful, Price Structure should never be completely ignored. Time is the qualifier for Price and vice versa. Time can fail by tricking traders into counter-trend trading.
Time is a predestined trade quantifier, a filter to slow trades down, as it allows a trader to specifically focus on specific time windows and rest at others. It allows for quantitative measurements to reach deterministic values and is the primary qualifier for trends. Time structure should be utilized before price structure, and it is the primary trade criterion which requires support from price. We can see price structure on a chart, as areas of mathematical support or resistance, but we cannot see time structure.
Time may be used to tell us an exact point in the future where the market will inflect, after Price Theory has been fulfilled. In the present, price objectives based on price theory added to possible future times for market inflection points give us the exact time of market inflection points and price.
Time Structure is repetitions of time or inherent cycles of time, occurring in a methodical way to provide time windows which may be utilized for inflection points. They are not easily recognized and not easily defined by a price chart as measuring and observing time is very exact. Time structure is not a science, yet it does require precise measurements. Nothing is certain or definite. The critical question must be if a particular approach to time structure is currently lucrative or not.
We will measure it in intervals of 180 bars. Our goal is to determine time windows, when the market will react and when we should pay the most attention. By using time repetitions, the fact that market inflection points occurred at some point in the past and should, therefore, reoccur at some point in the future, we should obtain confidence as to when SPY will reach a market inflection point. Time repetitions are essentially the market’s memory. However, simply measuring the time between two points then trying to extrapolate into the future does not work. Measuring time is not the same as defining time repetitions. We will evaluate past sessions for market inflection points, whether discretes, qualified swings, or intra-range. Then records the times that the market has made highs or lows in a comparable time period to the future one seeks to trade in.
What follows is a time Histogram – A grouping of times which appear close together, then segregated based on that closeness. Time is aligned into combined histogram of repetitions and cycles, however cycles are irrelevant on a daily basis. If trading on an hourly basis, do not use hours.
Evaluating the yearly lows, we see that BTC tends to have its lows primarily at the beginning of every year, with a possibility of it being at the end of the year. Following the same methodology, we get the middle of the month as the likeliest day. However, evaluating the monthly lows for the past year, the beginning and end of the month are more likely for lows.
Therefore, we have two primary dates from our histogram.
1/1/21, 1/15/21, and 1/29/21
2:00am, 8:00am, 12:00pm, or 10:00pm
In fact, the high for this year was February the 14th, only thirty days off from our histogram calculations.
The 8.6-Year Armstrong-Princeton Global Economic Confidence model states that 2.15 year intervals occur between corrections, relevant highs and lows. 2.15 years from the all-time peak discrete is February 9, 2020 – a reasonably accurate depiction of the low for this year (which was on 3/12/20). (Taking only the Armstrong model into account, the next high should be Saturday, April 23, 2022). Therefore, the Armstrong model indicates that we have actually bottomed out for the year!
Bear markets cannot exist in perpetuity whereas bull markets can. Bear markets will eventually have price objectives of zero, whereas bull markets can increase to infinity. It can occur for individual market instruments, but not markets as a whole. Since bull markets are defined by low volatility, they also last longer. Once a bull market is indicated, the trader can remain in a long position until a new high is reached, then switch to shorts. The average bear market is eighteen months long, giving us a date of August 19th, 2021 for the end of this bear market – roughly speaking. They cannot be shorter than fifteen months for a central-bank controlled market, which does not apply to Bitcoin. (Otherwise, it would continue until Sunday, September 12, 2021.) However, we should expect Bitcoin to experience its’ exponential growth after the stock market re-enters a bull market.
Terry Laundy’s T-Theory implemented by measuring the time of an indicator from peak to trough, then using that to define a future time window. It is similar to an head-and-shoulders pattern in that it is the process of forming the right side from a synthetic technical indicator. If the indicator is making continued lows, then time is recalculated for defining the right side of the T. The date of the market inflection point may be a price or indicator inflection date, so it is not always exactly useful. It is better to make us aware of possible market inflection points, clustered with other data. It gives us an RSI low of May, 9th 2020.
The Bradley Cycle is coupled with volatility allows start dates for campaigns or put options as insurance in portfolios for stocks. However, it is also useful for predicting market moves instead of terminal dates for discretes. Using dates which correspond to discretes, we can see how those dates correspond with changes in VIX.
Therefore, our timeline looks like:
[Today's Hot Tips]submitted by LOEXCHANGE to u/LOEXCHANGE [link] [comments]
1. [Anonymous person completes registration of Bitcoin name and logo at the Spanish Patent and Trademark Office]
According to cointelegraph, the name and logo of Bitcoin have been registered in the Spanish Patent and Trademark Office. This process was witnessed by Ignacio Rubio Menendez, a compliance expert and lawyer specializing in commercial law. The registrant said: "I am a bitcoin salesperson, my idea is to protect Bitcoin and take responsibility, so that any new user can cooperate with me 100% safely, away from the scam named Bitcoin, use real Bitcoin." It should be noted that the file refers to a logo that contains a white letter "B" in an orange circle, which will be the official logo of Bitcoin.
2. [Payment giant PayPal may launch cryptocurrency transactions]
According to Coindesk news on June 23, three people familiar with the matter said that financial technology giant PayPal plans to sell cryptocurrencies directly to its 325 million users. One of the industry sources revealed that PayPal and Venmo will allow direct trading of cryptocurrencies. They will have some built-in wallet function, so users can store cryptocurrencies there. Industry sources said PayPal is expected to "work with multiple exchanges to obtain liquidity." Another source confirmed that PayPal is seeking to provide a cryptocurrency trading service and said the service is expected to be launched "in the next three months or earlier". It is reported that PayPal established a long-term cooperative relationship with Coinbase as early as 2016. As of now, PayPal official said it will not comment on rumors or speculation. Note: Venmo is a mobile payment service under PayPal, which allows users to transfer money to others using mobile phones or web pages.
3. 【The main forces of long and short appear all! Ten days to move 160,000 BTC trading directions exposed】
During the BTC shrinkage adjustment period, the 24-hour trading volume was not the lowest but only lower. On June 22, the trading volume shrank to $ 15 billion, indicating a significant reduction in trading heat. This time is the moment when investors pay attention to trading opportunities. The shrinkage did not affect the BTC's rebound rhythm, because at present, BTC is continuing to expand its growth.
Investigate the reason, you can pay attention to the changes in the amount of BTC flowing into and out of the exchange. As early as June 12, the total amount of BTC flowing into the exchange reached 40,000 BTC. In the past two days just past the weekend, nearly 120,000 BTC flowed out of the exchange, releasing a signal that the selling pressure has been greatly reduced.
[Today's market analysis]
Bitcoin (BTC)BTC has shown a shocking uptrend since early this morning; the first wave of pull-ups started around 0 o'clock, and then pulled up again around 4 o'clock after finishing sideways, reaching a maximum of 9785 USDT, and now slightly down below 9700 USDT. Mainstream currencies followed the day. BTC is currently reported at 9634.4 USDT at the LOEx Global, a 24h increase of 1.54%.
The current fundamental performance is very general, which is in stark contrast to Bitcoin's high sideways price, and the two are diverging. This state cannot last forever, there are two ways to break the game. The first is that the main force spends a lot of money to violently pull the market and attract funds. In this way, more people use it; second, the main force smashes down and waits for Bitcoin to find its place in a certain scenario. The fundamentals will come up, and then push up the price.
How likely is the former? Depends on the amount of funds to enter the market, according to this year's economic situation, I'm afraid not too optimistic. The possibility of the latter depends on the market demand of Bitcoin, a large number of people think that inflation of fiat currency is good for Bitcoin. However, there is currently no direct evidence to support this view.
Bitcoin's daily active addresses show a downward trend and recently hit their lowest level since April 26. The highest currency price on April 26 was $7,700, and today is $9,600. So compared, the fundamentals cannot support the current price. Is the price going to fall? Not necessarily, the relationship between the price and the value is the positional relationship between the dog and the owner. The dog runs for a while and runs behind. In the short term, price will deviate from value, and in the long term, price will follow value. The shock cannot continue indefinitely, so let's choose a compromise method. How about a slight Bitcoin callback?
Support level: the first support level is 9600 points, the second support level is 9400 integers;
Resistance level: the first resistance level is 9800 points, the second resistance level is 9900 points.
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