Economist Steve Hanke: Bitcoin Is Not a Currency, It's a
Economist Steve Hanke: Bitcoin Is Not a Currency, It's a
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Renowned Economist Tears Into Bitcoin, Calling it Bulls**t
Why Our Money Is Broken
I’m writing this because I wish to explain in layman terms why the global economy is broken. Most people intuitively feel that the economy is a mess and bad things are happening. Words like corruption, crony capitalism, money printing and bailouts are being tossed about as explanations why the economy is in trouble. While all these things are problems our economy is facing and deserve attention, they are all consequences of a fundamental problem that needs to be understood first and foremost. That is, money itself is broken. To understand how fiat money we use is broken, one should view money as a commodity just as you would any other good. Any economist would agree that setting a price for a good or service is a bad idea, but for whatever reason, mainstream economists (Keynesians) believe that money is exempt from the disastrous effects of price fixing. As a quick refresher why price fixing is never a desirable policy let’s take a look at the classic example of rent control. Let’s say the average cost of an apartment in your city/town is $1000. Your politicians say that this is outrageous and make a sweeping policy saying that no apartment can be priced above $100. Suddenly the supply for housing cannot come close to matching the demand at this price. Landlords no longer care about the upkeep of the apartment because even if the apartment turns into a shithole, someone will still take it for $100. People no longer have incentives to build new housing or renovate existing housing because they can no longer charge a market rate. The end result is a city in ruins. Try your logic at why price fixing doesn’t work with any good. The market is distorted. Supply and demand are unable to reach equilibrium and everybody loses. The price of money is the interest rate. When the Federal Reserve engages in interest rate targeting, this is price setting. The Fed will say that the cost of money is too high! We need to get more money into the hands of more people to stimulate the economy, so let’s set the price of money to zero. Take a minute to think about what this means. In a free market the interest rate is established by the supply of money (savings) and the demand for money (borrowing). The interest rate can never be zero. It can only approach zero if the supply (savings) is reaching infinity and/or the demand (borrowers) for money is reaching zero. When the Fed fixes the price of money, it is sending a false market signal across the whole economy about how much money is saved to properly be used for investment. This is where irrational economic behavior occurs on a macroeconomic scale. Strictly speaking, individuals are operating rationally. If the price of money is zero, it is only rational to borrow money and not save your money. The problem is not the individual but rather the Central Bank has distorted the reality of the most important commodity of them all, money itself. What are the consequences of setting the price of money so low? Think about how this affects borrowers. The economy is operating under the assumption that there are more savings available for investment then there actually are. This leads to malinvestments. Imagine your buddy says he has a million dollars saved and would be happy to lend you this money free of interest. Maybe you’d build a fancy new house or put down a lot of capital to start a business. Then halfway through building your house, your buddy says, sorry, I only had $100,000, not a million. You began building something you should never have started building had you previously known how much money was actually available. You have to scrap your project and you end up with a worthless half built project. How does this affect savers? Imagine if I had a million dollars in my savings account. With the interest rate so low, I’m being given very strong signals to not keep that money in the bank to be loaned out. If the price of money is zero, why in the world would I want to sell (loan) my money for no profit? You wouldn’t. Your money is losing value everyday it sits in the bank account because the Fed is pumping out more money and giving it to banks to keep the interest rate at zero. You need to buy something with that money. You end up buying a house, stocks or whatever commodity you think will increase in price because you don’t want to see the value of your cash inflated away. As investments are undertaken that should never have been started and commodities are purchased that should never have been purchased, asset prices rise and we see bubbles forming all over the economic landscape. By messing with price of money the whole economy has become infected. And unfortunately at this stage, there is no cure. We are in too deep. The financial system will implode and the dollar will collapse. Please protect yourself and buy bitcoin.
Reacting to the recent disappointing performance by Bitcoin in the crypto market, Prof Steve Hanke, American economist and prof at the Johns Hopkins University in Baltimore, Maryland, noted on Twitter that Bitcoin should not be confused as a means of legal tender because it is very speculative in nature. https://preview.redd.it/oq1jdrjnyz651.png?width=598&format=png&auto=webp&s=fb0b16134832ad34be1022f2b990dddf1ee2040d This is not the first time an influential figure is criticizing Bitcoin, as far back as 2019, Economist Nouriel Roubini said that he would gladly take the dollar over Bitcoin because he does not believe that it is a real store of value. Giving his take on Bitcoin, the Economist said,
"Maybe Bitcoin is a partial store of value but it’s not a unit of account, it’s not a means of payment, it’s not scalable [...] despite its rally earlier this year, it’s lost 60% in value since its peak, so I don’t see it going anywhere frankly."
Buttressing the point of Roubini, Billionaire, Warren buffet claims that Bitcoin is an illusion because it holds no real store of value.
“If you do something phony by going out and selling yo-yos or something, there’s no money in it — but when you get into Wall Street, there’s huge money," the billionaire said.
Bitcoin Stuck in Negative Zone After Failing to Make Resistance Break Talking about the recent disappointing performance of the coin, investor and analyst at Panda, Edward Moya said; “Bitcoin continues to consolidate in what many crypto fans are calling the typical accumulation phase that occurs after a halving event. The coin has struggled “despite an overall resilient appetite for risky assets."
Central Bank Digital Currencies: A Threat Or A Blessing?
Central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) have been in the rumors since 2013, with China allegedly developing in secrecy a government-issued centralized cryptocurrency to fight off increasingly popular Bitcoin. But it wasn’t until September 2015 when the Bank of England had publicly discussed for the first time the use of a blockchain-based central bank currency as a way to implement negative interest rates, and March 2016 when the phrase “central bank digital currency” had been coined. by StealthEX To be sure, CBDCs have been a scarecrow for the cryptocurrency community for quite some time now. But how real is the danger? And couldn’t it in fact turn out to be a blessing in disguise for Bitcoin and its brothers in arms over the long haul? A sober look into the reality of CBDCs and their seemingly brewing stand-off with cryptocurrencies is due and invited. A New Twist on an Old Tune As soon as CBDCs started to make headlines across major news outlets in 2019, a new wave of soothsayers has risen. This time, Bitcoin skeptics and haters alike have gotten something looking solid on the surface. CBDCs came in handy to scare the cryptocurrency public into fear and depression for being touted as an ultimate weapon that would destroy Bitcoin. Aside from the regular fear mongering that has been following cryptocurrencies through years, there are a few apparently rational considerations that could, at least in theory, herald the autumn of cryptocurrencies. As it happened, the first proposals on CBDCs were in fact inspired by Bitcoin and the idea of a distributed digital ledger underpinning it. Moreover, they were actually suggesting the use of blockchain technology in one way or another. Today, this is no longer the case, and the concept of a digital fiat currency as it presently stands has little to do with blockchain. But how much would then a CBDC be different from conventional fiat which is already digital almost everywhere but in a few exceptionally backward countries? A number of mainstream economists try to address this issue, with Nouriel Roubini, a professor of economics at New York University and former senior adviser to the White House council of economic advisers and the US Treasury, leading the assault on Bitcoin. He goes as far as to claim that CBDCs are going to replace most private digital payment systems like PayPal and its likes by allowing anyone to transact directly through the central bank. That would reduce the need for cash and make traditional bank accounts along with digital payment services obsolete and unnecessary. In his view, cryptocurrencies are no more than a pile of overhyped blockchain technologies promoted by a bunch of “starry-eyed crypto-fanatics”. Roubini reasons that once CBDCs arrive, they would instantly displace cryptocurrencies, which, as he senses them, are far from scalable, cheap, and secure, nor they are actually decentralised and anonymous according to him. Whether his prophecy of an impending doom for crypto has any real ground remains a matter of scrutiny, which takes us to the next part of this essay. Much Ado about Nothing The argument in favor of CBDCs taking over cryptocurrencies is essentially based on misunderstanding Bitcoin’s primary value proposition. Although the advantages and benefits of CBDCs may be real, to a varying degree, the idea of a central bank digital currency doesn’t part ways with the original idea of fiat money itself. In other words, CBDCs will always remain a somewhat enhanced or updated version of fiat. As such, every major flaw or fault that fiat has ever revealed can be rightfully ascribed to this form of a centrally-controlled currency. Most importantly, CBDCs don’t seek to address the arbitrariness of their governing bodies, that is to say, central banks, in the majority of cases. Whatever has been said positive toward CBDCs can be reversed through the misuse and abuse by the monetary authorities. It is just a matter of time till they start turning advantages of CBDCs into disadvantages as has always been the case in the past, but now more efficiently and with a vengeance. And this is in stark contrast to Bitcoin which sets forth a distinctively different governance model by removing any central authority from the equation. This point has been reiterated and emphasized by many notable and well-known figures in the cryptoverse. For example, Barry Silbert, the founder of venture capital firm Digital Currency Group and a major investor in the blockchain space, strongly believes that central banks won’t be capping the supply of CBDCs because they “love to print money”. In this manner, CBDCs aren’t going to fix broken monetary policies carried out by most, if not all, central banks. Then we are instantly back to square one. And that comes down to a simple but time-proven truth that fiat currencies, no matter what form they may take, are set to depreciate and lose value over time. There is no way around this, and CBDCs will be of little help here, if ever. On the other hand, these currencies allow central bankers to gain more power over financial activities of the general public by requiring common people to use the financial system based on a CBDC, and, by extension, subjecting them to other forms of control in their efforts to maintain state supremacy over money – in addition to its costs and restrictions. Put shortly, digital currencies issued by central authorities cannot on their own pose a real threat to Bitcoin and undermine its value proposition coming from its decentralized nature and capped supply, especially in the long term. But could it play out in an altogether different direction? Could CBDCs actually help, in some convoluted or even controversial way, non-central bank currencies such as Bitcoin, and contribute to their mainstream adoption and wider acceptance? As it turns out, it is not totally impossible, and this might be the most interesting piece of the CBDC puzzle. A Blessing in Disguise Now that we established that CBDCs are unlikely to hurt Bitcoin, it is time to explore the opportunities they could offer the crypto space. Barry Silbert says that the efficient and cost-effective infrastructure every financial institution will have to build in order to safely store and support CBDCs happens to be the same infrastructure that could be used to transact with and provide support to cryptocurrencies. Consequently, Bitcoin will benefit in the long run from the world’s central bankers issuing their own digital currencies – when these currencies start to fail at the end of the day, which is inevitable with any form of fiat money as many economists claim. At a fundamental level, CBDCs, if they kick off for real, are set to compete not so much with Bitcoin and the rest of the pack but rather with other central bank currencies, digital or otherwise. Whatever nation launches such a currency first, the others will quickly follow. You don’t exactly need a master’s degree in economics to understand who will benefit most from the dog-eat-dog fight that will without doubt ensue, just like fiat currencies benefit from cryptocurrencies competing with each other. And remember if you need to exchange your coins StealthEX is here for you. We provide a selection of more than 250 coins and constantly updating the list so that our customers will find a suitable option. Why don’t you check it out? Just go to StealthEX and follow these easy steps: ✔ Choose the pair and the amount for your exchange. For example ETH to BTC. ✔ Press the “Start exchange” button. ✔ Provide the recipient address to which the coins will be transferred. ✔ Move your cryptocurrency for the exchange. ✔ Receive your coins. Follow us on Medium, Twitter, Facebook, and Reddit to get StealthEX.io updates and the latest news about the crypto world. For all requests message us via [email protected]. The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision. Original article was posted onhttps://stealthex.io/blog/2020/07/21/central-bank-digital-currencies-a-threat-or-a-blessing/
On July 14, 2020, join Binance as we kick off our third anniversary with one of the biggest blockchain events of the year. Get the latest news and updates on all things blockchain and crypto, and take an exclusive look at what’s coming next at our “Off the Charts!” Virtual Conference, a blockbuster 10-hour live event with multi-regional programming that brings together 80+ influential speakers, including leading blockchain and crypto innovators, business and technology leaders, influential academics, and key policymakers. Expect to hear the latest insights on the blockchain ecosystem from some of the industry’s most prominent leaders and visionaries. Join our can’t-miss event with powerful talks, breakthrough panels, opportunities to win prizes, and much more. The “Off the Charts!” Virtual Conference will feature five segments with spotlights on regions making a significant impact in the space: Europe & the UK, Asia-Pacific, Russia & CIS, Africa & Middle East, and North America & LATAM. Discover an array of keynotes, panels, and fireside chats, on these following themes and more:
Powering Crypto Growth: Local blockchain trends and evolving technologies that are transforming crypto awareness and adoption.
Crypto Meets Traditional Finance: Exploring opportunities for integrated and parallel development.
Blockchain and Global Health: Crypto’s appeal in today’s volatile environment.
Policy and Regulation: Spearheading community initiatives through cooperation and investment.
Trading Strategies and Technical Analysis: Training and insights to improve your trading.
Hear from these speakers and more:
Akon - Chairman & Co-Founder, Akoin
Cliff Liang - Director of Solutions Architecture, Amazon
David Ferrer Canosa - Secretary for Digital Policies, Government of Catalonia
Don Tapscott - Executive Chairman, The Blockchain Research Institute
Oleksandr Bornyakov - Deputy Minister, Ministry of Digital Transformation of Ukraine
Perianne Boring - Founder and President, Chamber of Digital Commerce
Changpeng Zhao (CZ) - Founder & CEO, Binance
He Yi - Co-Founder & CMO, Binance
Aarón Olmos - Economist, Olmos Group Venezuela
Alex Saunders - CEO & Founder, Nugget's News
Anna Baydakova - Reporter, CoinDesk
Anton Mozgovoy - Head of Product, Jthereum
Apolline Blandin - Research Lead, Cambridge Centre for Alternative Finance
Beniamin Mincu - CEO, Elrond
Bobby Ong - Co-founder, CoinGecko
Brendan Eich - CEO & Co-founder, Brave Software
Bruno Diniz - Managing Partner, Spiralem Innovation Consulting
Calvin Liu - Strategy Lead, Compound Labs
Camila Russo - Founder, The Defiant
Carlos Rischioto - Client Technical Leader & Blockchain SME, IBM
Carylyne Chan - Interim CEO, CoinMarketCap
Catherine Coley - CEO, Binance.US
Charles Hayter - CEO, CryptoCompare
Charles Hoskinson - Founder, Cardano
Charlie Shrem - Host, UntoldStories.Com
Chimezie Chuta - Founder, Blockchain Nigeria User Group
Darius Sit - Partner, QCP Capital
David Ferrer Canosa - Secretary for Digital Policies, Government of Catalonia
Denis Efremov - Investment Director, Da Vinci Capital
Don Tapscott - Executive Chairman, The Blockchain Research Institute
Eric Turner - VP, Market Intelligence, Messari
Erick Pinos - Americas Ecosystem Lead, Ontology
Ernesto Contreras Escalona - Head of Business Development, Dash Core Group
Eugene Mutai - CTO, Raise
Genping Liu - Partner, Vertex Ventures
Hany Rashwan - CEO, 21Shares AG
Harry Halpin - CEO, Nym Technologies
Hongfei Da - Founder, Neo
Igor Runets - CEO, BitRiver
İsmail Hakkı Polat - Cryptocurrency & Blockchain Lecturer, Istanbul Kadir Has University
Jamie Burke - CEO, Outlier Ventures
Jiho Kang - CEO, Binance.KR
John Izaguirre - Europe Ecosystem Lead, Ontology
John Khenneth Parungao - COO, SwipeWallet, Inc.
Jon Karas - President & Co-Founder, Akoin
Jorge Farias - CEO, Cryptobuyer
Joseph Hung - Director of Market Strategy, Klaytn
Joseph Lubin - CEO, ConsenSys
Juan Otero - CEO, Travala.com
Justin Sun - Founder, TRON & CEO, BitTorrent
Kristina Lucrezia Cornèr - Managing Editor & Head of Features, Cointelegraph
Ken Nakamura - CEO, GMO-Z.com Trust Company
Konstantin Goldstein - Principal Technical Evangelist, Microsoft
Kyle Samani - Managing Director, Multicoin Capital
Thamim Ahmed - Researcher, University College London
Tom Lee - Head of Research, Fundstrat Global Advisors
Tyler Spalding - CEO, Flexa
Veronica Wong - CEO, SafePal
Viktor Radchenko - Founder, Trust Wallet
Winpro Yan - Chief Editor, Mars Finance
Yele Bademosi - CEO, Bundle Africa
Zhuling Chen - COO, Aelf Blockchain
Stay tuned as speakers and more themes are announced in the coming weeks! For more details, read our blog posthereand visit our event websitehere. During the livestream, we will be holding special #BinanceTurns3activities for viewers and giving away limited-edition prizes, swag, and collectible NFTs at various points throughout the livestream. Availability is limited! Register today! Binance Awards 2020 Join Binance as we celebrate the standout innovators and businesses that have made sizable contributions, both to our community and to our blockchain ecosystem. Winners will be announced during our live event, and results will be published on our blog afterwards. Register on Eventbrite today and tune in to the “Off the Charts” Virtual Conference on July 14, 2020, from 9:00 AM to 7:00 PM (UTC). -------- Thank you to our partners for helping make this event possible!
Hello, Bombinos. First of all, huge thanks to all the team, mods and people working on the project. I'm writing some suggestions aiming to organize and grow our community and increase awareness about the project. It's divided in three specific topics related to strategy, communities and marketing. But first, I'll suggest some aesthetic changes in this subreddit to make it look more friendly. A) The font color in the topic on the front page is too dark in my desktop screen. The background is black and the font is dark gray, making it almost unreadable. It has to be changed to a lighter tone. B) The text on the sidebar is incomplete. I made some alterations in the new text below. "Bomb, the original and first deflationary currency experiment, was born after an airdrop in the end of 2018 aiming to answer one simple question: Can a deflationary cryptocurrency work as a store of value? The Bomb currency works by destroying 1% from every transaction recorded in the Ethereum blockchain. Only 1,000,000 tokens were minted. There will never be newly minted tokens." C) The sidebar should include a price ticker similar to the one used in the Telegram group and include our etherscan address. D) The sidebar should also include links to the Telegram and other communities. 1- Strategy: A) First deflationary currency and importance of the Bomb Token against governments printing money. The economist Friedrich Hayek from the Austrian school, in his acceptance speech titled "The Pretense of Knowledge" at the Swedish Nobel Academy, emphasized the importance of letting the economy free of government interference, specifically in the case of a continuous injection of additional amounts of money at points of the economic system where it creates a temporary demand, which generates a future imbalance after the artificial demand ceases. We are seeing this today with the interference of governments on the economies after the coronavirus. Trillions of dollars are being given to companies that don't have any idea how the consumers will react when the economies restart. The irrationality of the human behavior must be considered in this case, because there's no scientific theory to guarantee how the people will react after the restrictions are over. With all this new money on the market, we are risking a long term inflation that devalues national currencies like we have never seen before. That's where a deflationary currency becomes important as a hedge against this anomaly created in the market and this enormous sum of new money. B) Increasing the network effect to protect the asset To have a chance against its competitors, Bomb must protect its network against copycats and bad actors. The best way to do this is to increase the number of holders and, subsequently, wallets, to squash the power of any holder to manipulate the price and even crash it. We have to protect our network the same way Bitcoin did, increasing the number of financially interested people to a point where it's not productive to manipulate the price. Bomb has another quality that makes it prone to manipulation and volatility. One person (or entity) holding a lot of tokens can game the system using an exchange that runs off-chain transactions to crash the price. We are seeing this today. The transactions are happening but there's no burn and the price keeps going down. The only way to protect against this kind of bad actor is to increase the network effect and spread the tokens to a lot more holders, people interested in defending the currency. C) Increase the total holders and wallets to improve liquidity in exchanges and awareness Increasing the total number of holders would reduce the capacity of bad actors to wash trade. More people interested means more transactions, more transactions generate smaller spreads. Smaller spreads make it harder for bad actors to manipulate the price through wash trading. D) Evaluate new listings or removing old ones Yes, we need at least on more good exchange like Kraken. We should first wait for more holders before going after new listings. And we should look forward removing Bomb from bad exchanges. 2- Communities: A) Focus decisions on Reddit and Telegram (only three communities: news, price discussion and Bombassadors) and sharing everything published on Facebook and Twitter. Voting and decisions should be centralized in only one place. We can share the discussions everywhere else, but the voting and decisions must be centralized to one platform. B) Elect mods to these communities to increase decentralization I don't know how the Bombassadors program work, but we need to keep the current mods and choose new ones to run things more smoothly. Reddit and Telegram take a lot of time and we absolutely need more people. 3- Marketing: A) Use the small war chest wisely because Bomb is deflationary and becomes more and more scarce by the minute. We have to extended the war chest as long as we can to reach a more valuable network. Any marketing campaign must consider the increase in the network effect. We should focus on campaigns that attract outside interest. Example: each 15 days somebody could be rewarded with 50 bombs for an article shared on Reddit, Twiter, Facebook and 4chan. The prize must be voted and awarded to the best article that was shared, not only published. Articles or content that eventually reach a lot of engagement could be awarded outside of this prize with 100 bombs, discretionarily, by the mods. B) Use the funds only in campaigns that bring new people to the project instead of distributing it in the existing community to produce meaningless burns. Again. Burning will not increase the network value. After meaningless burns we will have the same number of interested people, but less tokens on the market. This way Bomb will never reach the store of value status. C) Reward people that generate quality content (like Pedro's 3D printed bombinos) and people that share this quality content and generate a lot of awareness. D) All campaigns must answer positively the question: Does this increase the network effect and represents quality content? E) Kill proposals that value meaningless token burns to create pumps. F) Don't forget to have fun! Good memes could be rewarded every 15 days, after voting, with 20 bombs. Suggestions are welcome. Let's find some common ground and move forward. And thanks for reading!
We can't blame Bitcoin for the negative trend it has undergone in recent weeks because the crypto market is currently being rocked by volatility. Volatility in the crypto market is the phenomenon used to describe the unpredictable fast movements of assets in the market. Considering the coronavirus pandemic, it has further deepened the volatility of the digital asset.
Bitcoin needs to break out of $10,000 resistance to make a surge
Looking briefly at the buying and selling pressure indicator, the crypto index is being said to be stuck in a negative zone and currently heads away from the 400 level that acts as its point of resistance. After trying on numerous occasions to break past its resistance $10,000 resistance level, Bitcoin needs to be able to break past the level to be able to make a bearish move in the market. One of the major factors affecting Bitcoin is the sell-off that happened on March 12 after it witnessed a price reduction by half. Dubbed as the Black Thursday, Bitcoin went from a little bit over $7,000 to sell at around $3,000. https://preview.redd.it/miezh8epzz651.png?width=1143&format=png&auto=webp&s=54644b3b17c60fe8aa91f0e80a9bfa6f33f79dbc Talking about the recent disappointing performance of the coin, investor and analyst at Panda, Edward Moya said;
“Bitcoin continues to consolidate in what many crypto fans are calling the typical accumulation phase that occurs after a halving event. The coin has struggled “despite an overall resilient appetite for risky assets."
Moya further noted that if this trend continues, it would force most small scale miners out of the Bitcoin network as they would not be able to make a profit as a result of the halving of the rewards.
"Maybe Bitcoin is a partial store of value but it’s not a unit of account, it’s not a means of payment, it’s not scalable [...] despite its rally earlier this year, it’s lost 60% in value since its peak, so I don’t see it going anywhere frankly."
Buttressing the point of Roubini, Billionaire, Warren buffet claims that Bitcoin is an illusion because it holds no real store of value.
“If you do something phony by going out and selling yo-yos or something, there’s no money in it — but when you get into Wall Street, there’s huge money," the billionaire said.
Conclusively, most people believe that Bitcoin is a good venture, while others have a not so good perspective of the leading cryptocurrency. If Bitcoin continues on this spree and does not experience a major breakout soon enough, most traders would be forced to look elsewhere which is not a good thing for the venture. In the long term, Bitcoin could still make the surge but, in the short run, nothing is sure as of now.
edit - I came up with a far better title: Why I YOLO on LLOY I have held my Vanguard for three years and since then had read a few books (albeit badly) that inspired me to take some risks: Armchair economist, Freakonomics, Thinking Fast Thinking Slow, 80/20 Principle, Algebra of Happiness, Smarter Investing, somewhat through Intelligent Investor but it's a slow read. I had never experienced picking individuals and foolishly it was something which I wanted badly enough to open with AJBell this FY. Tbh I regret it so if you're already happy with your Vanguard offerings then I can't say I'm happy to own individual picks now. Hopefully I'll get onto the psychology of why later. So why did I pick LLOY? I'm not going to say that I'm ecstatic about it. It was painful to push the button on it. I am extremely bearish (in life not just investing!), this comes from being a millennial, and I am certain that there is a government/company waiting just around the corner to overcharge me for goods and services. I did do some quick maths from the tiny fraction my pea brain gleamed from Intelligent Investor: Assets - 1065.871bn Liabilities - 1000.070bn Long Term Debt - 143.312bn 1065.871 - (1000.070 + 143.312) = 1065.871 - 1143.382 = -77.511 Lloyds really doesn’t appear to be a good buy. But I did so anyway… Somewhat probably from thing's I've not fully understood from Intelligent Investor! Banks are out of favour. They have been out of fashion as long as I can remember.
The financial crisis. The government bailout, which when you look at it now has Barclays comment of 'never took a Govt. bailout' isn't as good after learning that LLOY bought HBOS after being strong-armed by the Govt. for them to learn that there was some weird accounting going on.
PPI Scandal - no idea how this got so out of control. It was an amazingly American style campaign that went on as far as reclaiming it went. It very much reminded me of when I was a child and would forever see compo ads on the telly.
The FinTech new banks. I have nothing bad to say about this bunch I love them, they are doing the lords work. The industry definitely needs shaking up, I remember the days where my banking app mandated a different keyboard from my Android phone for security purposes, fantastic way to 1. freak people out and 2. ruin the usability of your application. The innovation of usability and access which these FinTech's bring is fantastic. But I'm not going to take a loan out with them, my parents aren't going to be able to take a mortgage out with them, and my parents definitely won't get an account over and above their brick banks. When switching becomes even more effortless nobody will probably be with the same bank for more than a year.
Go on why did you buy it despite all this then? Intelligent Investors advice when looking for value is to find companies which are out of fashion but still adequately ran (probably a better word there for adequately). This isn't the 2008 financial crisis - we aren't in this mess because the Banks released a deadly virus. But that doesn’t mean that LLOY wasn't heading for failure before this. The stock was performing badly before this storm. The profits we're lower than expected but they had the PPI bill to pay. The bank is led by António Horta-Osório - he has led the bank since 2011, nearly 10 years of service. He even took time off for his mental health before it was cool to do so! They're even reducing their emissions by 50% by 2020. Forget Elon, this guy is as fellow kids as they come. I'm not worried about the FinTech's yet. I have a few fintech accounts and they're great. I rolled out my joint account in a few clicks. I use it for all my spending. One thing which I think the FinTechs will do better with is getting extremely rich data on their customers spending habits and will therefore be able to sell this to aggregators for a higher price. LLOY have a £3bn digital transformation project which should be completing next year, we'll have to see what they have come up with. (you can tell I started to give up here) LLOY is the leader in the Mortgage market. They even have the Tesco portfolio! Should the country not be able to afford their mortgage bill, I just can't see the government letting it all go. They helped fund this BTL nation through their mortgage interest write offs at the time when rental yields were far higher and so were interest rates! There won't be anyone around to buy the repossessions, all the elderly are dead from Corona, and the youth don’t have any money to buy the houses. I don't think prices can go down to the point at which GenX/Mil can pay for them regardless. The next Govt. handout I can see is an enforced mortgage readjustment by the Govt. to the lenders for as long as borrowers need. There is probably far more which might back this up, but that doesn’t matter because the answer is that this was a risky buy, I have no doubt there is 10 fold more rationale behind not buying this. Just look at the guy the other day who was selling his WH, 200% what a lucky sole, their website was absolute garbage in a time when everyone is betting online! Anyway finally, the psychology behind why I should have stayed with VG. There are no purchase fees! When I buy through AJ and I see that there is a £10 dealing fee I feel a loss. This is mentioned heavily in investment books but I want to talk about the psychology behind it. In Thinking Fast Thinking Slow there is lots of talk about how we as humans react to loss, there are lots of studies mentioned in the book and it is fascinating. The essential take-home point here is that we as humans see loss completely different to gains. You can feel ecstatic finding £5 on the floor but feel a huge sense of dread when a scooter taxi rips you off by £5 in Vietnam and you think about it for the rest of your life! If you can gleam one thing from the Bitcoin culture its HODL!
More Wall Street Breakfast Podcasts » "Despite several issues of importance - national riots, Chinese relations, an ongoing pandemic - the stock market is primarily focused on a single thing: the restart of U.S. and global economic activities," said Jim Paulsen, chief investment strategist at the Leuthold Group. The sentiment led S&P 500 futures to tack on another 0.6% gain overnight as Dr. Anthony Fauci expressed renewed "optimism" about a coronavirus vaccine. On the economic calendar, the ADP Employment Report today will give a fresh read on the extent of the COVID-19 pandemic, while oil climbed 2% on anticipated output cuts at the upcoming OPEC+ meeting. Come on and Zoom! A surge in video conferencing usage saw revenue growth at Zoom (NASDAQ:ZM) jump 169% to $328.2M as the company reported top and bottom line beats for Q1. Zoom also doubled its revenue guidance for the year, pushing up shares as much as 4.5% in AH trading on Tuesday. In keeping with its previous practices, the firm didn't disclose active user numbers, though analysts at Bernstein estimate Zoom's mobile app had 173M monthly active users as of May 27, up from 14M on March 4. Zuckerberg stands firm after walkout Facing internal unrest over the company's gentle approach to moderating posts from President Trump, Facebook (NASDAQ:FB) CEO Mark Zuckerberg told employees he stood behind his decision, one he called "tough" but "pretty thorough." Policies will be reviewed to see if they need to change for the future. Facebook employees particularly took issue with a post by Trump that threatened violence, including the words "when the looting starts, the shooting starts." Similar posts on Twitter (NYSE:TWTR) were flagged for violating policy. Apple is tracking looted iPhones Thieves who made off with iPhones from Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) retail locations in New York, Los Angeles, Minneapolis, Washington and Philadelphia quickly learned that they were loaded with special security software. On-screen messages displayed: "This device has been disabled and is being tracked. Local authorities will be alerted." The social unrest sweeping across the nation comes just as Apple is in the process of opening more than 100 stores following an extended closure due to the coronavirus pandemic. Digital taxes The Trump administration is opening a "Section 301" investigation into taxes on digital commerce - proposed by a range of trading partners - that could affect revenues booked by tech giants like Facebook (FB), Google (GOOG, GOOGL) and Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN). The move could ultimately lead to punitive tariffs and heighten the chances of another global trade dispute. France already agreed to postpone its new digital tax until at least the end of 2020 after the U.S. threatened to impose tariffs of up to 100% on imports like French wine, cheese, handbags and porcelain. Will negative rates be needed? Many have doubted that the U.S. could go negative like Japan and parts of Europe, but St. Louis Fed economist Yi Wen says that's what it would take to achieve a V-shaped economic recovery. "I found that a combination of aggressive fiscal and monetary policies is necessary. Aggressive policy means that the U.S. will need to consider negative interest rates and aggressive government spending, such as spending on infrastructure." Wen cited historical examples like President Roosevelt's aggressive fiscal stimulus package during the 1930s and huge surge in government spending once World War II began. Britain news roundup The Shanghai-London Connect program, years in the making, has so far produced only one listing - Huatai Securities (OTCPK:HUATF) - which raised $1.5B last June. China's market regulator has now approved a fresh listing for China Pacific Insurance (OTCPK:CHPXY), signaling a revival of the program. While the ties could bring the nations closer, other news overnight may go in the other direction. Boris Johnson pledged to let into the country nearly 3M Hong Kong citizens - who are British overseas passport holders - due to China's new national security law, and place them on a possible path to U.K. citizenship. Drug shortages One of the most widely prescribed antidepressant medications in the U.S. has fallen into short supply, according to a new list from the FDA. Pfizer (NYSE:PFE) said some versions of its name-brand Zoloft, such as 100 milligram tablets in 100-count bottles, were scarce because of higher demand during COVID-19, while generics faced shortages of certain ingredients. Zoloft prescriptions climbed 12% Y/Y to 4.9M in March, the most ever in the U.S., according to data compiled by Bloomberg, but receded to 4.5M in April. M&A activity French luxury goods group LVMH’s (OTCPK:LVMHF) $16.2B takeover of Tiffany & Co (NYSE:TIF) is looking less certain, according to Women's Wear Daily. It's the latest big merger said to be on the rocks amid a deteriorating situation in the U.S. market brought on by a COVID-19 pandemic and severe social unrest. Further challenges include spending pattern shifts, the collapse of international tourism and trade tensions between Washington and Beijing. 'Biggest Sale in the Sky' After postponing its annual Prime Day event due to COVID-19, Amazon (AMZN) is reportedly setting up a "summer sale" for June to boost sellers hurt by the outbreak and swimming in inventory. The company told brands it would launch a fashion sale June 22, to run anywhere from 7-10 days, and that participation in the event was "invitation only." It's building landing pages with a working title "Biggest Sale in the Sky," and has asked brands to meet an end-of-Wednesday deadline to submit deals with a discount of at least 30%. What else is happening... Sports betting to the rescue in California? Twitter (TWTR) names Pichette as new independent chairman. Google (GOOG, GOOGL) faces $5B lawsuit over 'private' internet use. FAA boss to testify at Senate hearing on 737 MAX (NYSE:BA). Lyft (NASDAQ:LYFT) trims loss forecast after May rides jumped 26%. Tuesday's Key Earnings Ambarella (NASDAQ:AMBA) -3.7% AH on light revenue guidance. CrowdStrike (NASDAQ:CRWD) +6.2% AH following a beat-and-raise. DICK'S Sporting Goods (NYSE:DKS) +3.7% as e-commerce sales rose 110%. Zoom Video (ZM) +1.4% AH posting Q1 beat, aggressive outlook. Today's Markets In Asia, Japan +1.3%. Hong Kong +1.4%. China +0.1%. India +0.6%. In Europe, at midday, London +1.5%. Paris +2%. Frankfurt +2.2%. Futures at 6:20, Dow +0.8%. S&P +0.6%. Nasdaq +0.5%. Crude +1.7% to $37.43. Gold -0.6% to $1724.40. Bitcoin -5.6% to $9527. Ten-year Treasury Yield +3 bps to 0.71% Today's Economic Calendar Auto Sales 7:00 MBA Mortgage Applications 8:15 ADP Jobs Report 9:45 PMI Services Index 10:00 ISM Non-Manufacturing Index 10:00 Factory Orders
Goldman Sachs Slams Bitcoin; Coinbase Welcomes High Rollers
Bitcoin enjoyed a slight rise this week, though it’s struggling to surpass $10,000, which has acted as a resistance level for every short-lived rally in May. With its momentum stalled, investors fear a pullback. Miners who needed the price to rise after the May 12 halving may have to sell more of their rewards to stay afloat, and open interest on futures exchanges is expanding, which often signals near-term volatility. Coinbase is acquiring fledgling startup Tagomi for between $75 million and $100 million, hoping to capitalize on its technology and talent. Tagomi, valued at $72 million in an early 2019 funding round, caters to deep-pocketed traders making transactions of more than $250,000. It’s linked to a dozen of the world’s largest exchanges, including Coinbase, and routes these trades to whichever venues offer the best prices. A source told Forbes that Tagomi’s three cofounders will help Coinbase accelerate Coinbase Prime, a trading platform for institutional investors announced in 2018. THUMBS DOWN FROM GOLDMAN In an invitation-only call hosted by a panel that included respected economists Jason Furman and Jan Hatzius, Goldman Sachs castigated bitcoin and cryptocurrencies, saying they’re “not an asset class” and “not a suitable investment for our clients.” The firm highlighted bitcoin’s use in illegal transactions and even drew parallels to the Dutch tulip bubble from 1634-37 that ended in an abrupt crash. Crypto loyalists unsurprisingly pushed back on social media, and the scathing presentation didn’t have much of an impact on bitcoin’s price. ENTERPRISE Swiss securities giant SIX Group is a bit more open to bitcoin than Goldman, leading a $14 million Series A investment into enterprise infrastructure provider Omniex to take a 12% stake in the startup. SIX hopes Omniex will connect its customers to more digital asset investment opportunities. Google Cloud announced a partnership with Theta Labs, a venture-backed blockchain company, which will offer a new service allowing users on the Cloud to run nodes of Theta’s blockchain network. Google will also operate a validator itself for Theta’s network servicing all of Europe. The news helped Theta’s cryptocurrency token rise more than tenfold in value from its March lows. Plus, Samsung revealed that its blockchain wallet added support for users of the Gemini exchange, headed by outspoken twins Cameron and Tyler Winklevoss. ALLEGED MONEY LAUNDERER INDICTED Vitalii Antonenko, who was arrested and detained at New York’s JFK Airport in March 2019, was indicted Wednesday on money laundering charges that carry up to a 20-year prison sentence. Antonenko and his co-conspirators allegedly sold stolen credit card information on the dark web via two bitcoin wallets that were used in transactions totaling $94 million.
Why the Covid-19-induced Economic Downturn Can be a Blessing in Disguise
https://preview.redd.it/ei56m90o8hz41.png?width=1024&format=png&auto=webp&s=b23062c417a8b87d8fd0f228165dabef2f6adf2f Chief Economist of the International Monetary Fund, Gita Gopinath has written a piece reporting and predicting the disastrous consequences of the Coronavirus pandemic on the global economy. Hoping that the economies will be able to restart by the 3rd quarter of the year 2020, this year will see a global GDP growth rate of -3%. This is not only worse than the 2008 financial crisis, Gopinath writes; it is the worst recession since the great depression of 1930s. The cumulative losses to the global GDP over 2020 to 2021 is predicted to be equivalent to approximately 9 trillion dollars, which is greater than the economies of Japan and Germany combined. How Can the Economy Bounce Back? All these assumptions will hold true if the economic institutions are able to bounce back properly. The labour markets and human capital development may be stunted with the crisis in the health and the education sector. So, one of the most crucial factors of production might be in scarce supply even after the economy restarts, in most countries. Investment is also likely to become a big problem as the investors are becoming increasingly risk averse in the wake of this crisis. This is particularly bad news for the developing economies, as they will be facing a lot of capital flight. This again will have negative consequences for the global economy. As a consequence there will be huge job losses, shutdowns and shrinking in the per-capita income. Even the stock and commodities markets are in an exceptionally bad state. On May 13, both stock and oil prices have taken a hit, as there is an increasing fear of a second wave of Covid-19. Indices across the globe plummeted, especially after the statement by Anthony Fauci, the Head of Center for Disease Control, United States, signifying the possible negative consequences of an early lifting of the lockdown, therefore indicating the prolongation of the economic lockdown. Can Digital Assets be the Answer to Global Financial Woes? In the light of these instabilities in the global economic system, it is not surprising that people are looking for alternatives, and are in fact being compelled to do that. In fact, the World Economic Forum, which is the vanguard of the global economic order, has passed been considering how blockchain technology could be used to improve the global supply chains, to make them more resilient in the face of crises like these. Similarly, the COVID-19 crisis has led to a 72% increase in the use of fintech apps in Europe. In late April, according to CoinMarketCap, Bitcoin prices rose by 23% to 9500 dollars in less than a day. This is indicative of a greater interest in cryptocurrencies; and also of the fact that how cryptocurrencies can be much more resilient in the face of a crisis, given that they are not subjected to policy changes, and other forms of market manipulation and direct exogenous forces affecting fiat and equities alike. Therefore in a globalised world they will show the way. Why Cryptocurrency Trading has Seen a Sharp Rise The uncertainty surrounding the current global economic scenario has renewed interest of many traders in the crypto sector. Almost all digital assets trading platforms, or cryptocurrency exchanges, have reported a sharp rise not only in number of new registrations, but in trading volumes as well. Even new traders, without any previous experience in trading either traditional assets, or digital assets, are also taking the plunge into crypto trading. While these are exciting times, there are also risks associated with volatility of digital assets. However, with some inside knowledge into how trading (in its different avatars) works, traders can be empowered to take informed decisions and protect their investments alongside making handsome profits. Leading digital assets trading platform, Bithumb Global, has introduced many innovative options which make trading easy in these times. For example in a time of capital shortage, margin trading can be a great way to leverage the opportunities of crypto trading to make profits. How Does Leverage Trading Work? While we have explained through a step-by-step guide on how new traders can register on the Bithumb Global platform for margin trading activities, let us explain the process and its intricacies a bit better. Bithumb Global margin trading adopts the full-position mode, and provides 5X leverage. At the same time, when the transaction is generated, the currency is automatically borrowed and returned, eliminating the steps of active borrowing and repayment. Considering you have registered onto the platform, or are logged in to it and have also transferred assets in your margin trading account, the system will automatically allocate funds based on the available assets in your margin trading account and leverage multiples. The borrowable value is the largest loanable asset that the user can currently borrow from the platform and it depends on how much asset the user hold in the margin trading account. For example, if the amount of assets in the margin trading account is 10,000 USDT (it will show on the page), the user can borrow a maximum of 38,000 USDT. Therefore, through margin trading, the maximum amount that the user can operate with is 10,000 + 38,000 = 48,000 USDT. Assuming that the price of BTC is 7000 USDT and you are bullish it will reach 8000 USDT, you can borrow USDT from the platform to buy BTC. Now, your USDT position is 10,000 USDT and your maximum loan limit is 38,000 USDT. When buying 5 BTC for a pending order, a loan will be generated immediately after the pending order is placed. The loan amount is: 5 * 7000–10,000 = 25,000 USDT. In the order operation area, click the loan summary to view the asset balance, loan amount and interest payable in each currency. When BTC rises from 7000 USDT to 8000 USDT, you sell 5 BTC at 8000 USDT and the profit is 5 * (8000–7000) = 5000 USDT. You open the position (your target of 8000 USDT per BTC) and once target price is reached, you need to close the position. Our platform provides users with three modes of operation: 1) Quick liquidate In the Quick liquidate mode, the system will automatically calculate the user’s openable quantity. The user only needs to enter the target price and click “sell” to realize the sale of the pending order with the number of openable positions, thus achieving the effect of one-key closing. 2) Close loan In the close loan mode, the system will automatically calculate the amount of money and interest payable by the user. The user only needs to enter the target price and the system will automatically calculate the amount to buy or sell. You can realize the pending order for the corresponding amount of loan repayment. 3) Normal orders After opening a position, in the normal order placing mode, click 100% of the amount to buy or sell to realize the reverse opening order. Let us take the long BTC as an example to understand the three modes. User buys 5 BTC at 7000 USDT, and closes the position when BTC rises to 8000 USDT. The user will automatically close the position by quick liquidate mode. The system will automatically calculate the number of BTC that the user can close. The user has to click “sell” after the BTC price reaches 8000 USDT, to generate a pending order to sell 5 BTC at 8000 USDT in the current commission area. In the close loan mode, the system will automatically calculate the 25,000 USDT and interest payable that the user needs to repay the loan. When user enters 8000 USDT and click on “Sell BTC” to close the loan, he can generate 8000 USDT in the current commission area for sale. In the normal order placing mode, the user enters 8000 USDT and clicks 100% to sell BTC. A pending order with a quantity of more than 5 BTC will be produced. After the pending order is completed, the position will be converted from long BTC to short BTC. In summary, it is recommended that users complete the liquidation operation through quick liquidate when repaying the transaction. In addition, closing a position can also be done by transferring assets. The user transfers the loan amount from spot trading account to margin trading account, and the system will realize automatic repayment. Conclusion You have used money from the platform as a loan, bought assets, opened a position and made a handsome profit when the target was achieved. After paying back the loan as well as the interest on the money that you used, the remainder is your net profit. Margin trading also protects your downside. Your investments are protected when the price of an asset goes down. There are stops placed at the lower end to help you minimize your losses. So it is imperative that you try out margin trading with a small amount to understand the nitty-gritties and feel confident about it. All in all, margin trading has helped thousands of traders on Bithumb Global to leverage the current bullish sentiments in the cryptocurrency markets to make profits and hedge their risks in digital assets. Will you be the next successful trader?
Some have argued that neoconservativism has been influenced by Schmitt Most notably the legal opinions offered by Alberto Gonzales, John Yoo et al. by invoking the unitary executive theory to justify highly controversial policies in the war on terror—such as introducing unlawful combatant status which purportedly would eliminate protection by the Geneva Conventions torture, NSA electronic surveillance program—mimic his writings.Professor David Luban said in 2011 that "[a] Lexis search reveals five law review references to Schmitt between 1980 and 1990; 114 between 1990 and 2000; and 420 since 2000, with almost twice as many in the last five years as the previous five"
Realpolitik World Order, by Henry Kissinger Liberalism/Social Democracy A Theory of Justice, by John Rawls Right-Wing Libertarianism Anarchy, State, Utopia by Robert Nozick Technocracy Zero to One, by Peter Thiel Marxism-Leninism Left-Wing Communism, and Infantile Disorder by Vladimir Lenin Recommended books: Israel/Palestine and the Middle East: Start off with: The Iron Wall by Avi Shlaim ★ Gaza: An Inquest Into Its Martyrdom by Norman Finkelstein Also Great ★ Fateful Triangle by Noam Chomsky Israel/Palestine: How to End the War of 1948 by Tanya Reinhart The Birth of Israel: Myths and Realities by Simha Flapan Between the Lines: Israel, the Palestinians, and the U.S. War on Terror by Tikva Honig-Parnass The Holocaust Industry: Norman Finkelstein Defending the Holy Land: A Critical Analysis of Israel's Security and Foreign Policy by Zeev Maoz Gaza: An Inquest Into Its Martyrdom by Norman Finkelstein The New Intifada: Resisting Israel’s Apartheid by Roane Carey, Alison Weir, and others The Battle for Justice in Palestine by Ali Abunimah American Foreign Policy: Start off with: ★ ★ ★ Understanding Power by Noam Chomsky Killing Hope: U.S. Military and CIA Interventions Since World War II by William Blum Also Great: Defeat: Why America and Britain Lost Iraq by Jonathon Steele A Different Kind of War: The Un Sanctions Regime in Iraq by Hans. C. Von Sponeck Al-Qaeda: Casting a Shadow of Terror by Jason Burke How America Gets Away with Murder: Illegal Wars, Collateral Damage and Crimes Against Humanity by Michael Mandel The Deaths of Others: The Fate of Civilians in America's Wars by John Turnam Talking to the Enemy: Faith, Brotherhood, and the (Un)Making of Terrorists by Scott Atran The Politics of Heroin: CIA Complicity in the Global Drug Trade by Alfred W. McCoy Ideal Illusions: How the U.S. Government Co-opted Human Rights by James Peck War Stars: The Superweapon and the American Imagination by Howard Bruce Franklin Next Time They’ll Come to Count the Dead: War and Survival in South Sudan by Nick Turse Tomorrow's Battlefield : U.S. Proxy Wars and Secret Ops in Africa by Nick Turse The Violent American Century: War and Terror Since World War II by John Dower Command and Control: Nuclear Weapons, the Damascus Accident, and the Illusion of Safety by Eric Schlosser The Hungry World: America's Cold War Battle Against Poverty in Asia by Nick Cullather Voices From the Other Side: An Oral History of Terrorism Against Cuba by Keith Bolender The Doomsday Machine: Confessions of a Nuclear War Planner by Daniel Ellsberg Tinderbox: U.S. Foreign Policy and the Roots of Terrorism by Stephen Zunes One Minute to Midnight: Kennedy, Khrushchev and Castro on the Brink of Nuclear War by Michael Dobbs Kill Chain: Drones and The Rise of the High-Tech Assassins by Andrew Cockburn First Do No Harm: Humanitarian Intervention and the Destruction of Yugoslavia by David Gibbs The Management of Savagery by Max Blumenthal Media and Propaganda: Start off with: Manufacturing Consent by Edward Herman and Noam Chomsky Propaganda by Edward Bernays The Record of the Paper: How the New York Times Misreports US Foreign Policy by Richard A. Falk Also Great: The Real Terror Network: Terrorism in Fact and Propaganda by Edward Herman The Politics of Genocide by Edward Herman Taking the Risk Out of Democracy: Corporate Propaganda versus Freedom and Liberty by Alex Carey American History and Culture: Start off with: ★ A People's History of the United States by Howard Zinn Also Great: Political Repression in Modern America: FROM 1870 TO 1976 by Robert Justin Goldstein No is Not Enough: Resisting Trump's Shock Politics and Winning the World We Need by Naomi Klein The Industrial Worker, 1840-1860: The Reaction of American Industrial Society to the Advance of the Industrial Revolution by Norman Ware Voices of a People's History of the United States by Anthony Arnove and Howard Zinn Violent Politics: A History of Insurgency, Terrorism, and Guerrilla War, from the American Revolution to Iraq by William R. Polk ★ With Liberty and Justice for Some: How the Law is Used to Destroy Equality and Protect the Powerful by Glenn Greenwald Strangers in Their Own Land: Anger and Mourning on the American Right by Arlie Russell Hochschild The Half Has Never Been Told: Slavery and the Making of American Capitalism by Edward Baptist The New Jim Crow by Michelle Alexander Slavery by Another Name: The Re-Enslavement of Black Americans from the Civil War to World War II by Douglas A. Blackmon Inferno: The World at War, 1939-1945 by Max Hastings The Politics of War: Allied Diplomacy and the World Crisis of 1943-1945 by Gabriel Kolko Labor History: The Fall of the House of Labor by David Montgomery Selling Free Enterprise: The Business Assault on Labor and Liberalism, 1945-60 by Elizabeth A. Fones-Wolf The Market Revolution: Jacksonian America, 1815-1846 by Charles Grier Sellers Sociopathic Society: A People’s Sociology of the United States by Charles Derber On the Rojava Experiment: Revolution in Rojava Struggles for Autonomy in Kurdistan A Small Key Can Open a Large Door Rojava: An Alternative to Imperialism, Nationalism, and Islamism in the Middle East Coming Down the Mountains To Dare Imagining: Rojava Revolution ★ Ocalan’s Prison Writings Anarchism, Socialism, Philosophy, and Science: Start off with: ★ Government In The Future(Talk) by Noam Chomsky Homage to Catalonia by George Orwell On Anarchism by Mikhail Bakunin The Limits of State Action by Wilhelm von Humboldt Also Great Progress Without People: In Defense of Luddism by David F. Noble Granny Made Me an Anarchist: General Franco, The Angry Brigade and Me by Stuart Christie Fashionable Nonsense: Postmodern Intellectuals' Abuse of Science by Alan Sokal Beyond the Hoax: Science, Philosophy and Culture by Alan Sokal A Theory of Power by Jeff Vail Workers' Councils by Anton Pannekoek The State: Its Origin and Function by William Paul On Anarchism by Noam Chomsky The Anarchist Collectives: Workers' Self-Management in the Spanish Revolution 1936-39 by Sam Dolgoff Anarchism by Daniel Guerin The Ancestors Tale by Richard Dawkins Demon Haunted World by Carl Sagan Memory and the Computational Brain: Why Cognitive Science WIll Transform Neuroscience by Randy Gallistel and Adam Philip King Vision: A Computational Investigation Into the Human Representation and Processing of Visual Information by David Marr Economics: Start off with: ★ ★ Bad Samaritans: The Myth of Free Trade and the Secret History of Capitalism by Ha-Joon Chang ★ Making Globalization Work by Joseph Stiglitz Capital in the 21st Century by Thomas Piketty Adam Smith and His Legacy for Modern Capitalism by Patricia H. Werhane Also Great: Democracy at Work: A Cure for Capitalism by Richard Wolff Das Kapital by Karl Marx Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith Affluence and Influence: Economic Inequality and Political Power in America by Martin Gilens America Beyond Capitalism by Gar Alperovitz The ABCs of Political Economy: A Modern Approach by Robert Hahnel ★ ★ Golden Rule: The Investment Theory of Party Competition and the Logic of Money-Driven Political Systems by Thomas Ferguson The Conservative Nanny State: How the Wealthy Use the Government to Stay Rich and Get Richer by Dean Baker Rigged: How Globalization and the Rules of the Modern Economy Were Structured to Make the Rich Richer by Dean Baker Unequal Democracy: The Political Economy of the New Gilded Age by Larry M. Bartels Understanding Capitalism: Critical Analysis From Karl Marx to Amartya Sen by Douglas Down Whose Crisis, Whose Future?: Towards a Greener, Fairer, Richer World by Susan George Business as Usual: The Economic Crisis and the Failure of Capitalism by Paul Mattock Jr. Greening the Global Economy by Robert Pollin Capitalism: A Ghost Story by Arundhati Roy Political Economy and Laissez Faire by Rajani Kannepalli Kanth The Great Transformation: The Political and Economic Origins of Our Time by Karl Polanyi Miscellaneous: ★ Discipline and Punish, by Michel Foucault Chasing the Scream: The First and Last Days of the War on Drugs by Johann Hari Controlling the Dangerous Classes by Randall G. Shelden Pedagogy of the Opressed by Paulo Freire The Verso Book of Dissent: From Spartacus to the Shoe-Thrower of Baghdad by Andrew Hsiao Don't Mourn, Balkanize!: Essays After Yugoslavia by Andrej Grubačić ★ Field Notes on Democracy: Listening to Grasshoppers by Arundhati Roy Voices from the Plain of Jars: Life under an Air War by Fred Branfman We by Yevgeny Zamyatin In Praise of Barbarians by Mike Davis Damming the Flood by Peter Hallward Hope and Folly: The United States and UNESCO, 1945-1985 by Edward Herman and Herbert Schiller Fanshen: A Documentary of Revolution in a Chinese Village by William Hinton The Egyptians: A Radical Story by Jack Shenker Welcome to the Revolution: Universalizing Resistance for Social Justice and Democracy in Perilous Times by Charles Derber Sociopathic Society: A People’s Sociology of the United States by Charles Derber The Black Jacobins by C.L.R. James Dark Money by Jane Meyers King Leopold's Ghost by Adam Hochschild Recommended YouTubers/Creators/Channels(with a linked video to get you started): Political Contrapoints | America: Still Racist ★ Philosophy Tube | The Philosophy of Antifa Existential Comics ★ ★ Chomsky’s Philosophy | Bakunin's Predictions HBomber Guy | Soy Boys: A Measured Response Shaun | How Privatisation Fails: Railways Badmouse Productions | Argument ad Venezuelum Three Arrows | Who is actually at fault for the refugee crisis? Gravesend Films (with Norman Finkelstein) | The Idea Of Utopia The Intercept | Greenwald and Risen debate Russiagate Non Political Lindsay Ellis - Film Criticism | The Ideology of the First Order The Great War - History | The Run For The Baku Oil Fields History Civilis - History | The Constitution Of The Spartans Numberphile - Mathematics | Perplexing Paperclips Computerphile - Technology | The Bitcoin Power Problem Vihart - Mathematics | Hexaflexagons 3Blue1Brown - Mathematics | How Cryptocurrencies Work PBS SpaceTime - Astronomy, Physics | The Blackhole Information Paradox Will Schoder - Video Essays | The Problem with Irony and Postmodernism Assorted Documentaries to get you started: ★ Manufacturing Consent - The seminal work on how the population is controlled in democratic societies ★ ★ Citizenfour - Edward Snowden, Glenn Greenwald and Laura Poitras in a Hong Kong Room. ★ ★ Risk - A deep look at Wikileaks - from the inside the embassy. The Murder of Fred Hampton - How the FBI brazenly assassinated an American citizen without any warrant or due process Weiner - An incredible look at how political campaigns function from the inside. The Corporation - What are corporations? The Shock Doctrine - Lectures by Naomi Klein, news-reel footage and analysis to explain the connection between politics and economics. ★ Hypernormalization - Explains not only why chaotic events happen - but also why we, and politicians, cannot understand them. Inside Job - A look at the cause for the financial crisis Podcasts Start off with: ★ ★ ★ Citations Needed Also Great: Intercepted Current Affairs Podcast Chapo Trap House Moderate Rebels Economic Update Protect Yourself: PrivacyToolsIO, Electronic Frontier Foundation
https://preview.redd.it/j0djo8qwty451.png?width=1343&format=png&auto=webp&s=f22a87463a1ba07c3c48fe40002e5cbd19745104 Hello everyone, thank you for your continued interest and support. In the past two weeks, various tasks of TokenClub have been progressing steadily. The product development and community operation progress this week are as follows: 1. TokenClub Events 1)TokenClub’s 2nd Token Circle Talent Show starts registration The second 2nd Token Circle Talent Show is coming, providing you with a big stage that you want to show yourself in the coin circle. 500,000 people will watch your performances here. This event takes part in the form of registration, and enters the selection competition after passing the preliminary screening of TokenClub. The trial will be promoted in the form of live PK. Winners will receive key support from TokenClub, self-media matrix, help create personal exclusive boutique columns, get the chance to talk with more heavyweight guests, and there will be TCT awards waiting for you! Friends, sign up now. https://preview.redd.it/f6s3axeyty451.png?width=1080&format=png&auto=webp&s=06513d733b2415c5550d6d34ca50b47dc3ae714e 2)June 1 activity ended successfully On the advent of “June 1”, the TokenClub team opened a new welfare activity for overseas communities. During the event, follow the team’s official Twitter and forward the event poster in real time, or participate in the topic interaction of the Telegram group to receive private red envelope rewards https://preview.redd.it/16ffpkqzty451.png?width=1080&format=png&auto=webp&s=dba7dc67a0864355bf4fd340f0ca4b0f77f16020 3)BTCGrandpa is invited to participate in the live broadcast of Golden Finance On June 3rd, Grandma Coin was invited to participate in the live broadcast of Golden Finance’s “Mining Double Coins” theme. Review link: https://m.jinse.com/live/topic?id=14268. https://preview.redd.it/aaoh8p81uy451.png?width=1080&format=png&auto=webp&s=ffc1e74ea72ce203f02363ca1efa627af29482a8 4)BTCGrandpa was invited to participate in the 499 Block community AMA On June 11, Grandpa Nina was invited to participate in the 499Block community AMA. The theme is “Coin Circle Big V Coin Grandpa takes you to see the market”, the article review link: https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/qCnwuaohiwi4BXcbRSJ1gw https://preview.redd.it/47hiynm3uy451.png?width=1080&format=png&auto=webp&s=380f4f0990dbd235e8b9e85bed44e6c83a762ee2 2.TokenClub Live 1) Summary Recently, Jianan Technology Senior Vice President Lu Xiaoming, OKEx CEO-Jay Hao, Founder of Litecoin Charlie Lee, Binance Vice President Lu Mai, Bitribe Founder-SKY, Luyin Agreement Founder-Wang Dong, Kubi CEO-Johnny Lyu , Co-Founder of BTW.com-Dylan, MYKEY & Coin Hu founder Guru, suterusu investor & Betterbit founder Richard, CasperLabs CEO-Mrinal Manohar, CasperLabs COO- Cliff Sarkin, DoraHacks partner & business leader-Yue Hanchao, former Silicon Valley Engineer & Early Blockchain User-Wu Weilong, Distributed Capital Partner and General Counsel Sun Ming, Ontology Founder Li Jun, Cardano Project Founder Charles Hoskinson, QuarkChain Founding Partner Anthurine, ARPA Co-Founder & Chief Growth Officials-Nogi, the well-known KOL Ke Haoran of the currency circle, the “Ancient” old leek who loves trading, One.Love, the early investor of Bicc & the founder of CC Capital & the co-founder of the three o’clock blockchain community Wang Xiaobin, Binance Angel Steven, Binance Angel Wu Mi, Binance Angel July, Injective Protocol Co-Founder and CEO-Eric Chen, BN Capital Senior Partner-Wayne Lin, and TokenClub Blockchain and Cryptocurrency Investment Strategy Senior Expert-Zao Shen Chat with everyone Those things of the blockchain~ On June 1, the global blockchain live festival “Stay Live, Stay Young”-Bitribe +499BLOCK hosted by 499Block and Bitribe was childlike and childlike, celebrating June 1st. A total of 18 industry heavyweights, Jay Hao, Charlie Lee, Mai Lu, SKY, etc., and many industry leading exchanges such as Binance, OKEx, Matcha, Kucoin, Bitribe, BTW, etc. were invited to participate in the live broadcast festival Including Luyin agreement, Harmony, Cortex, Beam, Wedifi, etc., the continuous airdrop of up to 6BTC. https://preview.redd.it/iiwbpnb5uy451.png?width=1280&format=png&auto=webp&s=9a31ff98d3fac926e0178dac969949db12e24b86 On June 1st, CasperLabs CEO-Mrinal Manohar, CasperLabs COO- Cliff Sarkin, DoraHacks partner & business leader-Yue Hanchao, former Silicon Valley engineer & early blockchain user-Wu Weilong was a guest at the TokenClub live room, sharing the theme: Ethereum 3.0: Casper Labs, a Silicon Valley star project, takes us to interpret Casper Labs together. On June 1, Binance Luna talked to Lu Xiaoming, senior vice president of Jianan Technology, and talked to us about the mine. Lu Xiaoming believes that blockchain has played a huge role in breaking the “data island” and other aspects, and he has confidence in the future of the industry. Just like the sentence he gave to everyone: “We still believe firmly, still believe, of course ,we still love you!” On June 2nd, Binance Yingge talked to the founder of MYKEY & Coin Hu. Around: “Is Stablecoin a killer application?” Speaking from the beginning of the coin circle to the first pot of gold to the establishment of MYKEY, Guru and shared with us the secrets of grasping so many value projects, investment experience, etc., and stability The key analysis was carried out. On June 3, Binance Sis talked with Sun Ming, Partner and General Counsel of Distributed Capital-”Sun Ming, Partner of Distributed Capital: The past of the currency circle of a lawyer.” Sun Ming is more optimistic about Ethereum than Bitcoin. Sun Ming believes that the easiest way to invest is to choose the most important project in the main track. On June 4, Charles Hoskinson, the founder of Cointelegraph Chinese and the Cardano project, gave a live broadcast and shared an in-depth discussion around the topic of “How to Cardano surpass Ethereum after five years of precipitation.” Charles Hoskinson, who was a close working partner with V God and BM, why did he leave Bitshares and Ethereum to create the Cardano project? There is an answer in the live room. On June 4, Binance Li Jiayi talked with Ontology founder Li Jun-”Ontology founder’s blockchain entrepreneurial experience”. For the future of the public chain, Li Jun believes that in the past two years of infrastructure construction, the public chain has paid more attention to technology. However, in the process of open source in the blockchain industry, technical homogeneity is gradually emerging. In the next stage, the public chain will pay more attention to the application of landing entities and offline scenarios, and new focus will appear, which is a good thing for the development of the public chain. On June 5, Binance Seven Seven talked to Binance Captains-Hard Candy, He Rensi, Deer Deer Captain, and three post-90s Binance Captains. Focusing on the topic of “Binan Captain chatting about “Cloud Stall” earning “after-sleep income”, I talked about how the entire currency circle has been following the wind in recent days, to see how the Captain Binance is lying and making money. On June 6, the post-modernist economist hard-core punkist master, Zao Shen, went online, with the theme of “street stalls in the city management area, and speculation of coins out of heaven.” “Street economy” has become the most popular word recently. In this issue, Zao Shen takes everyone to analyze: behind the promotion of the land stall economy, what are the trends and choices in national policies? And analyzed the recent stock market, currency circle, and international policies. On June 8th, Binance Luna talked to Anthurine, the founding partner of QuarkChain, focusing on the “challenges and opportunities of blockchain in the “new infrastructure””. Anthurine is interested in the development of China’s new infrastructure and the blockchain industry in the new infrastructure In order to play its role, how to participate, and the new infrastructure you think they need the underlying architecture of the blockchain and other issues have been shared in detail. On June 9th, Binance Yingge talked with ETC Asia-Pacific community manager Xu Kang Christian, and talked to everyone: the brother story of ETC and ETH. Xu Kang said that after 2016, a hard fork occurred in Ethereum. The newly forked chain is ETH, and the original chain is now ETC. Xu Kang believes that the most suitable native scenario for blockchain implementation is the financial field, followed by the alliance chain that the country has vigorously developed. On June 10th, ARPA co-founder & chief growth officer-Noki as a guest TokenClub live broadcast room and Gate brand public relations Yue Yue connection centered on “ARPA DeFi ideas and growth strategy” centered on the discussion. Nogi talked to you about some ARPA things, and shared her views on the future of the entire digital currency and blockchain industry. On June 10, Binance Li Jiayi talked to the well-known KOL Ke Haoran of the currency circle and One.Love, the “old” leek who loves trading. Both guests were Binance’s “bosses” (rebate partners). The two guests shared their respective stories in the currency circle and the stories they saw, and shared their own experience in currency speculation. On June 11, Wang Xiaobin, an early investor of Bicc, founder of CC Capital, and co-founder of the three o’clock blockchain community made a guest live sharing and shared about the BICC trading platform, recent industry hotspots, and blockchain technology. On June 11, Binance Qianjiangyue spoke to Binance Angels Steven, Wu Mi and July. Binance Angel is a volunteer team established at the beginning of Binance. This team exists as a real voice of community users. The three Binance Angels also shared their daily work in the live broadcast room. On June 12, Binance Sis talked with Injective Protocol co-founder and CEO-Eric Chen, BN Capital Senior Partner-Wayne Lin, and shared their experiences of speculating on coins around “Defi makes the market value of crypto assets tenfold” , Investment experience and experience, a hot discussion was held on blockchain technology and Defi ecology. On June 13th, the currency circle song king Zao Shen went live, and the theme was “Recovery of the Minority, Lost of the Most”. Mainly revolving around this Thursday’s plunge in the currency circle, US stocks have driven the currency market to chat. On the linkage of the US stocks & currency circle, the reasons for the collapse of US stocks, the following market trends and investment strategies were analyzed one by one. For more exciting content, please move to the live room. 3.TokenClub operation data -Live data: 17 live broadcasts in the past two weeks, with over 500,000 views. TokenClub hosted a total of 889 live broadcasts with a total of 45.78 million views. -Binary trade data: In the past two weeks, guess the rise and fall to participate in a total of 5274 times, the amount of participation exceeded 3 million TCT. At present, it is guessed that the rise and fall function has participated in a total of 1.12 million times, with a cumulative participation amount of 501 million TCT. -Chat data: In the past two weeks, a total of 10124 messages have been generated. A total of 4.88 milliom messages have been launched since the function was launched. -Mini-game data: The mini-game has participated in a total of 5069 times in the past two weeks. A total of 1,67 million self-functions have been online. -Cut leeks game data together: Since the game was launched, the total number of user participation in the game was 976086 TCT total consumption was 6.28 million gift certificate total consumption was 16.39 million and TCT mining output was 163812. -TokenClub KOL data: Over the past two weeks, the total reading volume of the BTCGrandpa article has been viewed by more than 300,000 people. -Social media data: At present, the number of Weibo official accounts is 18053 and the number of Twitter followers is 1822 and we have opened the official Medium account this week, welcome to follow. -Telegram official group data: In the past 2 weeks, there were 741 chats in the group, and the total number of Telegram official groups is currently 3113. -Medium data: Medium official account u/TokenClub has published 3 excellent articles, official announcements and updates are published in English, welcome to follow. 4.Communities 1)Overseas community On June 1, TokenClub organized an award-winning event for overseas users to participate in live broadcast interaction, retweet Twitter, and telegram group chat. At the same time, with the increase of live broadcast content, the telegram group is becoming more and more active, and the questions raised by overseas users who have just entered the telegram group are also answered in the first time. TokenClub has translated the high-quality live content of the past two weeks into English and released it to the Medium platform. Please pay attention. https://preview.redd.it/8x7dtqliuy451.png?width=1280&format=png&auto=webp&s=197e7304091805750d322b09fc469116e813fba5 TCT has been listed on Binance、Okex、Gate.io、ZB-M、MXC、Biki、Coinex、BigOne、Coinbene、Cybex、SWFT、Loopring、Rootrex etc. TokenClub website: www.tokenclub.com Telegram：https://t.me/token_club
"It would be naive to think that [this endeavor] would cause day-to-day volatility to change... My primary objective is not to increase the price, though it would likely be a secondary effect. My primary objective is to reduce the severity and duration of high inflation rates in our circulating supply to mitigate the effects this has on our network. One of those effects is downward pressure on our price. Another is long-term price instability (both upward and downward). So I'm not looking to find a band-aid solution to affect price. I'm trying to address one of the root causes. Dash can't have the best payment network if the token economics that the network uses are not competitive within the cryptocurrency markets. I am making the case for a set of changes that would make Dash more competitive. The price will continue to fluctuate based on many other factors, including adoption rates, technology delivery, and new services / integrations / utility added to the network."
Implement joint masternode shares rather than a new proof of stake system
"We evaluate[d] various forms of Proof-of-Stake. I challenged the team on whether ChainLocks or some derivation of them could make a PoS system adequately secure. My instinct is that the answer is "yes" but would constitute a monumental task that I think would take a very long time for the team to execute. Just look at how long it is taking Ethereum, and the risks that they nearly introduced. Given the resources and risks of a PoS implementation, I don't think we need to go that route. The more pragmatic approach is to rely on the basic proven technology that we already have, and simply tweek the economics of the system. We also evaluated hybrid consensus models, deterministic holder lists, shared masternodes, and various assumptions about transaction activity, fees, etc. as a means of "sensitivity testing" various potential economic scenarios. It is difficult to predict the future, but we've run many scenarios to test what is reasonable and what is unlikely to occur."
"I would personally advocate for masternode shares, which are also easier to implement [than adding proof of stake shares]. From discussions with the team, this would take time, but not compared to say ChainLocks."
Increase masternode and treasury share of block reward, reduce mining share
"My own vision for this is simple and simple to implement. Allow up to 20% of the block subsidy to go toward proposals [and] allow unused budget to flow through to the miner / masternode allocations, it ensures that masternodes would not simply approve frivolous projects because the funding would otherwise be "wasted"... they have skin in the game and would support only projects that should deliver value over the long-term."
"Excluding the proposal funding allocation, the current split is 50/50 miners / masternodes of the block subsidy and transaction fees. I believe that the allocation could very safely move, over a long period of time, to as high as 15/85. However, I don't think a change of that magnitude is needed to capture the majority of the benefit. A reallocation to 25/75 seems more prudent for a few reasons....The reallocation itself would take place over time. A rate of about 1% per quarter....I think we should make the system dynamic in SOME WAY. As discussed in my presentation last month, the rigidity of the current allocation leads to behavioral issues."
"With a reallocation, it gives us plenty of room to alter the proposal system. I think we could make it more flexible by allowing MNs to approve any amount up to say 20%, but unlike today the remaining amount would be allocated to the masternodes and miners. As an example, if the non-proposal funding were 25% miners and 75% masternodes and the budget approved 8% for the month, the non-proposal funding (92%) would get split 25/75. In other words, the split would vary each month, so a month like this would be 23% miner / 69% masternode / 8% proposals. In another month, it could be 20% / 60% / 20%. In this way, masternodes must truly think a proposal will generate value, because they need to be willing to adjust their own allocation to make it happen. It also means they wouldn't feel the need to "use the entire budget" even on low-value activities. It allows the network to invest when it needs to and reap the benefits if the budget / price grows larger than required to address the network's needs."
"One of the pros of "rolling over" the budget is that it provides some flexibility to use unallocated funds. However, at times of abundance there is still the hazard that the result is an even larger surplus of unused funds the following month. In other words, it would simply delay the behavior described in which masternodes feel compelled to overallocate to "use up" the budget. I think we'd see healthier results from allocating unused funds to the MN / miner allocations to create a healthy "trade off" dynamic for approving the use of funds. It would help ensure proposals would need to demonstrate value regardless of the price of Dash or the value of the budget."
"I think [the 10% treasury cap] should be lifted. I also think we should start small by only increasing the max to 20% (which was actually Evan's initial intended allocation before MNs questioned whether the proposal system would be effective... 10% was the compromise). There are some concerns that whatever the maximum is, the MNOs would blindly use, so to alleviate those concerns, I think 20% provides plenty of flexibility and help address the concerns. To expand a bit... I would be concerned about increasing the emission rate. If we lift the cap, it should come from MN and miner rewards. Predictable scarcity is one of the defining features of any cryptocurrency. Even those with inflation forever (e.g., 1% into perpetuity) has a defined limit within a person's lifetime. Unbounding the proposal system would risk abuse or loss of confidence over our future supply."
Keep X11 mining for now, ensure Dash dominates X11 hashing by 10x
"In my opinion - and this is just an opinion - we should aim to have X11 hashrate an order of magnitude (10x) or more than the rest of the X11 market combined. ChainLocks and InstantSend are the reason that we are treated by exchanges as "most secure", but perception issues if we had "too low" of a hashrate would likely crop up long before real risks were actually present. So IMO, there is a phycological level we need to maintain more than a mathematical one."
Block subsidy belongs to the network, to be used for all needs, not just mining
"I view the block subsidy and transaction fees are revenue that belongs to the network. It just so happens that Bitcoin and others allocate that toward mining in the protocol. Dash's allocation is much smarter, because it incentivizes all needs and the NETWORK is the one that decides how its revenue should be allocated. The NETWORK will decide if my proposal should be adopted. That's not a tax. That's the network making rational decisions about what activities it wants to incentivize and pay for. The block subsidy does not - by default - belong to the miners. It belongs to the network first and foremost."
Commentary on masternode ROI, plans to conduct and release supporting analyses
"One of the amazing things about the structure of the masternode rewards is that it changes based on demand. If operators shut down masternodes to lend instead, the returns for the remaining masternodes increase. There will always be a market because the ROI will always adjust to the rate demanded by the market. In fact, if you look at after-inflation ROI of operating a masternode, the ROI now is as high as it has ever been. In 2014, returns were above 20%, but inflation was 27% or so. Today, returns are 6-7%, but inflation of the supply is down to 7-8% currently."
"There are several analyses that we've conducted. I plan to share those with the community as part of a formal presentation in the coming weeks. Those analyses primarily establish the hypothesis from my presentation, and those include:
Statistical correlation between masternode ROI and masternode investments (both before and after the effects of inflation)
Establishing causation between masternode ROI and masternode investment (because correlation is not causation)
Establishing that net investment in masternodes effects "circulating supply"
Establishing that "circulating" supply inflation statistically contributes to price
Predictions and rationale for future ROI changes demanded by the MN network
Models of the effects of proposed solutions"
"Some of the interesting findings so far (some of which surprised me):
While the market tends to value "headline" ROI the most - that is to say the stated ROI before the effects of dilution from inflation - they are not nearly as irrational as I initially assumed. The masternode market increasingly is considering the post-inflation returns, which have have improved over time. In short, the masternode market is becoming more rational and taking into account the effects of inflation to a lesser degree than the "headline" ROI. This is healthy and means the issue is less severe than I initially thought. It also means that we don't need to take as drastic of steps to address the issue, which is also good news.
Masternode ROI is a leading indicator of masternode investment (no surprise there). In other words, if we allocate more rewards toward masternodes, that strongly encourages masternode creation.
Changes in "circulating supply" caused by masternode creation does impact the price.
Models suggest modest and slow reallocations are far better than making a dramatic change. Therefore, any changes are best conducted over a long multi-year period to avoid shocking the system."
Timing: discuss now, detailed proposals starting as early as next month
"It is through dialogue with the core developers, researchers (including other researchers at ASU), and economists that my own views have been shaped on what the right answer looks like, and establishing constraints on the potential solutions. I plan to ramp up community engagement to share more about key findings so far to make sure we collectively understand the dynamics of the system changes we'll be voting on as a community. This is critically important to reaching the right answer."
"I believe it is feasible that we would begin discussing detailed proposals [for block reward reallocation] within the next month. In terms of voting, we may need several rounds of voting to narrow any specific aspects of a solution with multiple potential options in a kind of a "bake off" toward a final proposal... similar to the process we followed last year when we had multiple PR firms competing."
The Intellectual Foundation of Bitcoin比特幣的智識基礎. By Chapman Chen, HKBNews
https://preview.redd.it/w6v3l8n3zxu41.jpg?width=2551&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=fb0338a36a1a321d3781f43ff5eb6929d8b92edc Summary: Bitcoin was invented by the anonymous Satoshi Nakamoto as recently as 2008, but it is backed up by a rich intellectual foundation. For instance, The 1776 First Amendment separates church and state, and contemporary American liberation psychologist Nozomi Hayase (2020) argues that money and state should similarly be separated. Just as Isaac Newton’s study of alchemy gave rise to the international gold standard, so has the anonymous creator Satoshi Nakamoto's desire for a “modernized gold standard” given rise to Bitcoin. Indeed, Bloomberg's 2020 report confirms Bitcoin to be gold 2.0. Montesquieu (1774) asserted that laws that secure inalienable rights can only be found in Nature, and the natural laws employed in Bitcoin include its consensus algorithm and the three natural laws of economics (self-interest, competition, and supply and demand). J.S. Mill (1859) preferred free markets to those controlled by governments. Ludwig von Mises (1951) argued against the hazards of fiat currency, urging for a return to the gold standard. Friedrich Hayek (1984) suggested people to invent a sly way to take money back from the hands of the government. Milton Friedman (1994) called for FED to be replaced by an automatic system and predicted the coming of a reliable e-cash. James Buchanan (1988) advocated a monetary constitution to constrain the governmental power of money creation. Tim May (1997) the cypherpunk proclaimed that restricting digital cash impinges on free speech, and envisioned a stateless digital form of money that is uncensorable. The Tofflers (2006) pictured a non-monetary economy. In 2016, UCLA Professor of Finance Bhagwan Chowdhry even nominated Satoshi for a Nobel Prize. Full Text: Separation between money and state The 1791 First Amendment to the U.S. Constitution enshrines free speech and separates church and state, but not money and state. "Under the First Amendment, individuals’ right to create, choose their own money and transact freely was not recognized as a part of freedom of expression that needs to be protected," Japanese-American liberation psychologist Nozomi Hayase (2020) points out (1). The government, banks and corporations collude together to encroach upon people's liberties by metamorphosing their inalienable rights into a permissioned from of legal rights. Fiat currencies function as a medium of manipulation, indulging big business to generate market monopolies. "Freedom of expression has become further stifled through economic censorship and financial blockage enacted by payment processing companies like Visa and MasterCard," to borrow Hayase's (2020) words. Satoshi is a Modern Newton Although most famous for discovering the law of gravity, Isaac Newton was also a practising alchemist. He never managed to turn lead into gold, but he did find a way to transmute silver into gold. In 1717, Newton announced in a report that, based on his studies, one gold guinea coin weighed 21 shillings. Just as Isaac Newton’s study of alchemy gave rise to the international gold standard, so has the desire for a “modernized gold standard” given rise to Bitcoin. "In a way, Satoshi is a modern Newton. They both believed trust is best placed in the unchangeable facets of our economy. Beneath this belief is the assumption that each individual is their own best master," as put by Jon Creasy (2019) (2). J.S. Mill: free markets preferable to those controlled by governments John Stuart Mill (1806-1873) the great English philosopher would be a Bitcoiner were he still around today. In On Liberty (1859), Mill concludes that free markets are preferable to those controlled by governments. He argues that economies function best when left to their own devices. Therefore, government intervention, though theoretically permissible, would be counterproductive. Bitcoin is precisely decentralized or uncontrolled by the government, unconfiscatable, permissonless, and disinflationary. Bitcoin regulates itself spontaneously via the ordinary operations of the system. "Rules are enforced without applying any external pressure," in Hayase's (2020) words. Ludwig von Mises (1958): Liberty is always Freedom from the Government In The Free Market and its Enemies, theoretical Austrian School economist Ludwig von Mises (1951) argues against the hazards of fiat currency, urging for a return to the gold standard. “A fiat money system cannot go on forever and must one day come to an end,” Von Mises states. The solution is a return to the gold standard, "the only standard which makes the determination of the purchasing power of money independent of the changing ideas of political parties, governments, and pressure groups" under present conditions. Interestingly, this is also one of the key structural attributes of Bitcoin, the world’s first, global, peer-to-peer, decentralized value transfer network. Actually, Bloomberg's 2020 report on Bitcoin confirms that it is gold 2.0. (3) Von Mises prefers the price of gold to be determined according to the contemporaneous market conditions. The bitcoin price is, of course, determined across the various global online exchanges, in real-time. There is no central authority setting a spot price for gold after the which the market value is settled on among the traders during the day. Hayek: Monopoly on Currency should End Austrian-British Nobel laureate Friedrich Hayek’s theory in his 1976 work, Denationalization of Money, was that not only would the currency monopoly be taken away from the government, but that the monopoly on currency itself should end with multiple alternative currencies competing for acceptance by consumers, in order "to prevent the bouts of acute inflation and deflation which have played the world for the past 60 years." He forcefully argues that if there is no free competition between different currencies within any nation, then there will be no free market. Bitcoin is, again, decentralized, and many other cryptocurrencies have tried to compete with it, though in vain. In a recently rediscovered video clip from 1984, Hayek actually suggested people to invent a cunning way to take money out of the hands of the government:- “I don’t believe we shall ever have a good money again before we take the thing out of the hands of government, that is, we can’t take them violently out of the hands of government, all we can do is by some sly roundabout way introduce something they can’t stop” (4). Reviewing those words 36 years hence and it is difficult not to interpret them in the light of Bitcoin. Milton Friedman Called for FED to be Replaced by an Automatic System Nobel laureate economist Milton Friedman (1994) was critical of the Federal Reserve due to its poor performance and felt it should be abolished (5). Friedman (1999) believed that the Federal Reserve System should ultimately be replaced with a computer program, which makes us think of the computer code governing Bitcoin (6).[\](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Criticism_of_the_Federal_Reserve#cite_note-:2-12) He (1970) favored a system that would automatically buy and sell securities in response to changes in the money supply. This, he argued, would put a lid on inflation, setting spending and investment decisions on a surer footing (7). Bitcoin is exactly disflationary as its maximum possible supply is 21 million and its block reward or production rate is halved every four years. Friedman passed away before the coming of bitcoin, but he lived long enough to see the Internet’s spectacular rise throughout the 1990s. “I think that the Internet is going to be one of the major forces for reducing the role of government," said Friedman in a 1999 interview with NTU/F. On the same occasion, he sort of predicted the emergence of Bitcoin, "The one thing that’s missing, but that will soon be developed, is a reliable e-cash, a method whereby on the Internet you can transfer funds from A to B, without A knowing B or B knowing A." (8) “Of course, Friedman didn’t predict the block chain,” summed up American libertarian economist Jeffery Tucker (2014). “But he was hoping for a trustless system. He saw the need.” (9). Bitcoin Computer Code as Constitution in the Buchananian Sense American economist cum Nobel laureate James Buchanan (1988) advocates constitutional constraints on the governmental power to create money (10). Buchanan distinguishes a managed monetary system—a system “that embodies the instrumental use of price-level predictability as a norm of policy”—from an automatic monetary system, “which does not, at any stage, involve the absolute price level” (Buchanan 1962, 164–65). Leaning toward the latter, Buchanan argues that automatic systems are characterized by an organization “of the institutions of private decision-making in such a way that the desired monetary predictability will emerge spontaneously from the ordinary operations of the system” (Buchanan 1962, 164). Again, "Bitcoin regulates itself through the spontaneous force of nature, flourishing healthy price discovery and competition in the best interest of everyone" (Hayase 2020). Shruti Rajagopalan (2018) argues that the computer code governing how the sundry nodes/computers within the Bitcoin network interact with one another is a kind of monetary constitution in the Buchananian sense. One of Buchanan's greatest inputs is to differentiate the choice of rules from the choice within rule (Buchanan 1990). One may regard the Bitcoin code as a sort of constitution and "the Bitcoin network engaging in both the choice of rules and choice within rules" (Rajagopalan 2018) (11). Tim May: Restricting Digital Cash may Impinge on Free Speech Cypherpunks are activists who since the 1980s have advocated global use of strong cryptography and privacy-enhancing technologies as a route to social and political liberation. Tim May (Timothy C. May [1951-2018]), one of the influential cypherpunks published The Crypto Anarchist Manifesto in September 1992, which foretold the coming of Bitcoin (12). Cypherpunks began envisioning a stateless digital form of money that cannot be censored and their collaborative pursuit created a movement akin to the 18th Enlightenment. At The 7th Conference on Computers, Freedom, and Privacy, Burlingame, CA. in 1997, Tim May equated money with speech, and argued that restricting digital cash may impinge on free speech, for spending money is often a matter of communicating orders to others, to transfer funds, to release funds, etc. In fact, most financial instruments are contracts or orders, instead of physical specie or banknotes (13). Montesquieu: Laws that secure inalienable rightscan only be found in Nature In his influential work The Spirit of Laws (1748), Montesquieu wrote, “Laws ... are derived from the nature of things … Law, like mathematics, has its objective structure, which no arbitrary whim can alter". Similarly, once a block is added to the end of the Bitcoin blockchain, it is almost impossible to go back and alter the contents of the block, unless every single block after it on the blockchain is altered, too. Cypherpunks knew that whereas alienable rights that are bestowed by law can be deprived by legislation, inalienable rights are not to be created but can be discovered by reason. Thus, laws that secure inalienable rights cannot be created by humankind but can be found in nature. The natural laws employed in Bitcoin to enshrine the inalienable monetary right of every human being include its consensus algorithm, and the three natural laws of economics (self-interest, competition, and supply and demand) as identified by Adam Smith, father of modern economics. Regarding mathematics, bitcoin mining is performed by high-powered computers that solve complex computational math problems. When computers solve these complex math problems on the Bitcoin network, they produce new bitcoin. And by solving computational math problems, bitcoin miners make the Bitcoin payment network trustworthy and secure, by verifying its transaction information. Regarding economic laws, in accordance with the principle of game theory to generate fairness, miners take part in an open competition. Lining up self-interests of all in a network, with a vigilant balance of risk and rewards, rules are put in force sans the application of any exterior pressure. "Bitcoin regulates itself through the spontaneous force of nature, flourishing healthy price discovery and competition in the best interest of everyone," to borrow the words of Hayase (2020). A Non-monetary Economy as Visualized by the Tofflers In their book, Revolutionary Wealth (2006), futurists Alvin Toffler and his wife Heidi Toffler toy with the concept of a world sans money, raising a third kind of economic transaction that is neither one-on-one barter nor monetary exchange. In the end, they settle on the idea that the newer non-monetary economy will exist shoulder-to-shoulder with the monetary sector in the short term, although the latter may eventually be eclipsed by the former in the long run. What both the Tofflers' The Third Wave (1980) and Revolutionary Wealth bring into question is the very premise of monetary exchange. The vacuum left over by cash in such a non-monetary economy may be filled up by Bitcoin as a cryptocurrency. Satoshi Nakamoto Nominated for Nobel Prize by UCLA Finance Prof. UCLA Anderson School Professor of Finance Bhagwan Chowdhry nominated Satoshi Nakamoto for the 2016 Nobel Prize in Economics on the following grounds:- It is secure, relying on almost unbreakable cryptographic code, can be divided into millions of smaller sub-units, and can be transferred securely and nearly instantaneously from one person to any other person in the world with access to internet bypassing governments, central banks and financial intermediaries such as Visa, Mastercard, Paypal or commercial banks eliminating time delays and transactions costs.... Satoshi Nakamoto’s Bitcoin Protocol has spawned exciting innovations in the FinTech space by showing how many financial contracts — not just currencies — can be digitized, securely verified and stored, and transferred instantaneously from one party to another (14). Fb link: https://www.facebook.com/hongkongbilingualnews/posts/947121432392288?__tn__=-R Web link: https://www.hkbnews.net/post/the-intellectual-foundation-of-bitcoin%E6%AF%94%E7%89%B9%E5%B9%A3%E7%9A%84%E6%99%BA%E8%AD%98%E5%9F%BA%E7%A4%8E-by-chapman-chen-hkbnews Disclaimer: This article is neither an advertisement nor professional financial advice. End-notes
The price of a Satoshi never changes. (coingeek conference subject)
It would take pages and pages to cover this topic but I am going to keep it real simple and just make a few statements that should point to why the statement made by the guest at the coin-geek conference is wrong. The economist said that to work as money you need to lock the price of bitcoin. He is correct in theory, but he didn't understand the following realities.
As the network grows fees should go down.
at full scale fees should be very low
What is the lowest possible fee??
One satoshi is the lowest possible fee, there is no smaller amount of money
What is the value or utility of this one satoshi??
The value is the ability to post one item on the ledger to either pay the fee or act as the anchor for an asset attached to that Satoshi.
It's hard to think of the world without money, so try to imagine the world with no dollars and only valued in gold. That is sort of easy. Now imagine the whole world valued in the ability to watch one movie. Harder, but possible. No imagine the world valued in "posting one item to the ledger". When you value the whole world and all of it's assets in the value terms of "posting one item to the ledger" then you start to see that the value of the satoshi doesn't change. It is the same now as it will be in 1,000 years. The value actuality is the ability to post one thing on the ledger, and I say this having fast forwarded to a point in time where the network has already expanded to near full adoption and reached a balance point. In order to have a good money the money can't be a part of the economy it tries to represent. How can gold be compared to circuit boards when it takes gold to make circuit boards?? The value becomes circular. (a point made by the guest) My thesis is that the value of bitcoin doesn't change, it's the rest of the things in the economy getting cheaper when compared to the only thing that matter, the ability to post to the ledger. Posting to the ledger is such an important power, and this ledger increases trust and reduces bad actors so much that everything just gets cheaper. The utility of dollars when compared to this ledger is laughable, so dollars may go down in value when compared to the ability to post to the ledger. One post to the ledger is worth one post to the ledger, and always will be worth one post to the ledger. To fully understand how the world will work if this network takes over you simply need to price everything compared to the one thing that matters....... the ability to post to the ledger. Without the ability to post to the ledger you are cut off from trade, and to be cut off from trade hurts. This value doesn't change, only the peoples perception changes. What people will trade for access to the ledger will be more and more but this is not the value of one post to the ledger going up, this is the value of other things dropping. Cooperation makes all things cheaper and this ledger is the most massive cooperation ever imagined. A new age of cooperation is about to begin. One post to the ledger will always be worth one post to the ledger, and in a world where everything is valued as "posts to the ledger" this value can't change. The smallest expense possible is one satoshi and this one satoshi can represent anything, and that power is just as valuable now as it will be in 1,000 years. The only difference is that in 1,000 years people will be willing to trade a lot more for that ability because everything we consume will get orders of magnitude cheaper when compared to "a post to the ledger". Sure it's a mind game, but a fun one to think through. Maybe a post to the ledger is the new measuring stick to value the rest of the world in. Once you make that leap you see that the price of a satoshi never changes.
https://preview.redd.it/o2yvybwn42j41.png?width=900&format=png&auto=webp&s=436cb9f83c8474a7823a7e6c4adf1ad471dab29c ‘Simply put, it is a machine for creating trust.’ This is the remark by The Economist when it first reported the blockchain in 2015. Now the blockchain has established a complete set of traceable and tamper-proof decentralized distributed ledgers based on the cryptography. Relying on its own unique consensus mechanism and incentives, the blockchain enables the quick establishment of trust between initially strange or even distrusted parties, thus greatly reducing the cost of mutual trust. Based on this, a great number of decentralized and trustless business models are now changing the collaboration mode of social and business economic activities, which in some way breaks the line between the maximization and the cost efficiency. The transparency and immutability of the blockchain have made itself ‘trustworthy.’ But whether is it really the case that all industries could follow suit by incorporating the blockchain, just like the sweeping ‘Internet +’ wave decades ago? In fact, it is not. When the banner of ‘blockchain +’ is held high in China and when we are discussing the integration of blockchain and the real economy, what are we really referring to? The Internet focuses on the transfer of information, and the blockchain deals with the transfer of value. Since the advent of the blockchain, there are about 22,500 domestic enterprises centering around the development and service of the blockchain technology, up to about 5% of the world. The scale of blockchain enterprises has risen from less than 80 at the beginning to more than 800 in 2016, and so on and so on all the way grown to more than 15,000 in 2018. The application of blockchain in China has been seen in more than 50 scenarios, such as finance, the cross-border payment, content services, forensic services, social interaction, and government affairs. The Internet focuses on the transfer of information, and the blockchain deals with the transfer of value. Since the advent of the blockchain, there are about 22,500 domestic enterprises centring around the development and service of the blockchain technology, up to about 5% of the world. The scale of blockchain enterprises has risen from less than 80 at the beginning to more than 800 in 2016, and so on and so on all the way grown to more than 15,000 in 2018. The application of blockchain in China has been seen in more than 50 scenarios, such as finance, the cross-border payment, content services, forensic services, social interaction, and government affairs. Among them are some enterprises chanting fancy technical concepts but are actually tricking the public. And of course, there are also some enterprises that really adhere to the essence of the blockchain. For example, some enterprises use blockchain in addressing the problems of traditional supply chain finance to achieve standardized on-chain processing of users’ information, including account receivables and credit data between individuals, and to alleviate some problems found in the traditional supply chain finance, such as the difficulty for small and micro enterprises to request loans. In addition, blockchain technology has also been applied in public welfare in such provinces of China as Guizhou and Guangdong. Also, blockchain applications are enabling the digital identity of managers and playing a role in the ownership and transaction information of real estate holdings to reduce fraud in the public sector. Therefore, finance on chain, retail on chain, and life on chain are binding the real economy and the blockchain closely together through data and contract trust to accelerate the implementation of blockchain applications, which also points to the future of the ‘blockchain +’ development. For the blockchain technology itself, it can be viewed as both an opportunity and a challenge if it is to demonstrate more application scenarios and empower a broader range of real economy. Looking back on the evolution of the blockchain technology, it is not difficult for us to find that although the business logic of the first generation of blockchain applications led by Bitcoin was very clear, the link between those applications and the real economy was rather weak. The reason behind this is that the large volatility, throughput limitations, and uncontrollable transaction costs of the applications have all prevented them as becoming useful payment tools, which as a result hindered the deep integration between them and the real economy. Therefore, how to achieve targeted and refined connection between on-chain assets and off-chain entities seems to be a conundrum laying in front of practitioners in the blockchain field. Apart from this, offline payments of the blockchain are also facing such issues as the need for performance improvement, privacy and data protection, and security supervision. But technological progresses do take time, without which the industry change can never occur. Although there are still many problems with the integration of blockchain and the real economy, efforts are unremittingly made by project teams. For example, the introduction of technologies, such as ring signatures and zero-knowledge proofs, is to verify user data and ensure user privacy. And the construction of multi-chain framework, lightning network and Segwit is also to boost the growth of TPS, which today is no longer two orders of magnitude. With the evolution of technology, offline blockchain payments, which have traditionally been considered difficult to implement, are becoming ever more possible. It is through the blockchain technology that Standard Chartered Bank can now complete a cross-border payment business in just 10 seconds. And at present, countries around the world are at full strength with the blockchain payment. Libra is challenging the global payment industry. And Chinese Internet giants, such as Tencent and Alibaba are also deploying blockchain payments, let alone DC and EP which are also joining. But we have to be clear that though the blockchain payment wants to replace the centralized payment system on a thorough basis, there are still many technical problems, including to-be-improved efficiency, privacy, and recoverability, that are impeding the implementation of this technology. For now, the blockchain payment needs to first find a small payment scenario to verify its feasibility so as to accelerate its landing, and then to provide references and implications for the blockchain payment as a whole. Regardless of the future, it is undeniable that under the current market, the model of ‘blockchain + payment’ is sure to drive the real economy to exploring new business scenarios. And it is particularly important for project teams and even countries to actively embrace innovative technologies and keenly ride development trends in this fast-changing era of the new digital economy. Lava is also actively promoting the development of blockchain payments and exploring the African market. There has been evidence that today’s Africa has become a new battlefield for cryptocurrencies. Some sub-Saharan African countries, including Ghana and Kenya, are seeing a large number of cryptocurrency users, with the total scale of them ranking the top 45 in the world. From the perspective of the new generation of Africans, cryptocurrencies are not only investment vehicles, but also an important method to address financial needs, such as the transfer of goods, transfer of services, and transfer of funds. Also, the promotion of blockchain payments cannot be separated from Lava’s vision, which is to build a decentralized ‘Root of Trust’ and ‘Top-level Indexing.’ It is true that the entire blockchain technology is by no means a single combat. It also needs to borrow infrastructure-level support from new-generation technologies, such as artificial intelligence, big data and cloud computing. The same is even more true for blockchain projects, which otherwise will only cause great waste of resources, waste of computing power, or waste of assets. And Lava wishes to do something worthwhile by building a trust consensus of global storage. To that vision and starting from the PoC consensus mechanism, Lava is doing its bit to build a trust consensus of global storage. It is steadily moving towards this goal by working on a system of solutions that include the 2-way peg cross-chain asset transaction technology, the script-based cross-chain atomic switch technology, the off-chain expansion plan, payment channels, and state channels. Lava Community Discord:https://discord.gg/uzxqe3P Telegram:https://t.me/lavatech
The Day Advances | Monthly FIRE Portfolio Update - January 2020
The day advanced as if to light some work of mine Thoreau, Walden This is my thirty-eighth portfolio update. I complete this update monthly to check my progress against my goal. Portfolio goal My objective is to reach a portfolio of $2 180 000 by 1 July 2021. This would produce a real annual income of about $87 000 (in 2020 dollars). This portfolio objective is based on an expected average real return of 3.99 per cent, or a nominal return of 6.49 per cent. Portfolio summary Vanguard Lifestrategy High Growth Fund – $813 282 Vanguard Lifestrategy Growth Fund – $45 802 Vanguard Lifestrategy Balanced Fund – $83 162 Vanguard Diversified Bonds Fund – $110 472 Vanguard Australian Shares ETF (VAS) – $178 121 Vanguard International Shares ETF (VGS) – $34 965 Betashares Australia 200 ETF (A200) – $272 399 Telstra shares (TLS) – $2 046 Insurance Australia Group shares (IAG) – $8 970 NIB Holdings shares (NHF) – $6 492 Gold ETF (GOLD.ASX) – $106 701 Secured physical gold – $17 252 Ratesetter (P2P lending) – $14 755 Bitcoin – $153 530 Raiz app (Aggressive portfolio) – $18 365 Spaceship Voyager app (Index portfolio) – $2 534 BrickX (P2P rental real estate) – $4 477 Total portfolio value: $1 873 325 (+$94 067) Asset allocation Australian shares – 42.8% (2.2% under) Global shares – 22.6% Emerging markets shares – 2.4% International small companies – 3.1% Total international shares – 28.1% (1.9% under) Total shares – 70.9% (4.1% under) Total property securities – 0.2% (0.2% over) Australian bonds – 4.5% International bonds – 9.5% Total bonds – 14.0% (1.0% under) Gold – 6.6% Bitcoin – 8.2% Gold and alternatives – 14.8% (4.8% over) Presented visually, below is a high-level view of the current asset allocation of the portfolio. Comments This month saw exceptional growth in the portfolio, with a net increase of $94 000 after a small fall last month. [Chart] This is the fastest growth in the past half year. It is also the second largest absolute increase in over three years of measurement. [Chart] As the histogram below - which counts the frequency of occurrences in a specified range of monthly value changes (with red denoting losses) - makes clear, this is one of the most positive outcomes in the three year record. [Chart] The sources of portfolio growth were generally buoyant global and Australian share markets. Just under half of the growth was also due to an increase in the price of both gold securities and Bitcoin. In addition, even bond holdings increased in value over the period. Distribution payments from the Vanguard retail funds, as well as the exchange-traded funds VAS, VGS and A200 were made through this month. These totalled around $14 000 and have begun to be gradually fed back into the portfolio. This is a process which will occur through to June - with new investments twice per month. So far this has led to additional purchases in Vanguard's Australian shares exchange-traded fund (VAS) to maintain the target allocation of Australian equities making up 60 per cent of all equity holdings. The bond allocation of the portfolio continues to be notionally under its target, but has not yet reached a position where further balancing investments are warranted. Fully excluding the value of Bitcoin, for example, it still sits on its target allocation of 15 per cent of the portfolio. If the same calculation is done for equities, they sit just above their target, at 77 per cent, and have drifted higher since early last year. Over the past months my position has been to take no portfolio balancing actions based purely on the volatile value of Bitcoin over time, and this remains my approach. There is no perfect answer to this issue - assigning no value to Bitcoin and ignoring it for asset allocation purposes is inconsistent with its role in the portfolio. Pushing either equity or bond allocations sharply out of target boundaries merely due to short-term Bitcoin movements is also not warranted. Taking a backcast 'moving average' approach might be one statistical solution, but I am not yet convinced it would do more than moderate the appearance of the issue. While expenditure has been higher over the holiday period, on average the gap between the rolling three-year average of distributions and credit card expenditure continues to close, and sits at just over a $300 per month gap at present. Flags of convenience - estimating hedging in the portfolio This month, out of a curiosity carried over from my recent review of my bond holdings, I have found the time to review of the overall currency hedging position of the portfolio. There are some excellent online research papers (pdf) and blog pieces, such as this one from Passive Investing Australia, for those interested in learning more about some of the associated issues. Currency risks have never previously been an object of much detailed thought on the journey. Rather, I had tracked a basic measure of broader exposure to foreign assets (including foreign equities, property securities, gold and more recently Bitcoin). The additional issue of whether my exposure to these assets was unhedged (meaning exposure to gains and losses from the relative movement in the Australian dollar and the foreign currencies) or hedged was not really front of mind. I suppose I had a dim awareness that some elements of the Vanguard retail funds that have until recently dominated the portfolio were hedged (for example, around 30 per cent of the Vanguard High Growth Diversified funds equity position is currency hedged), and judged that there was likely a well-considered rationale behind the amount of this hedging. The first step to understanding where any exposures exist is to understand and measure the current state of affairs. As of today, this is broadly as set out below:
Around 35 per cent of all portfolio assets are effectively unhedged - This includes Bitcoin, unhedged gold holdings, and unhedged international equities and bonds. All other things being equal, if the Australian dollar falls, the value of this part of the portfolio rises in relative terms.
The remaining 65 per cent of assets are either hedged or Australian-held assets - This includes Australian equities, Australian bonds, as well as international equities and bonds hedged back to the Australian dollar.
International equities are partially hedged - The portfolio has around $525 000 in international equities currently. Of this, around $140 000 is hedged back into Australian dollars - a hedging position of 27 per cent.
International bonds are nearly fully hedged - consistent with their portfolio role and discussed here.
The decision to invest in Vanguard's International Shares ETF (VGS), which is unhedged, is a significant event in this regard. The chart below shows the overall level of currency hedging in the international equity portfolio. Investments in VGS commenced from July 2019, and have started to affect the level of hedging. [Chart] As future contributions flow into VGS - absent any other action - a historically quite stable level of hedging will continue to fall. So far this is just a trend I am monitoring, until I have completed more research and thinking on the best approach in this area. There are many complicated, and some unknowable, issues to consider and balance in hedging decisions, such as the likely denomination of future costs, and the historical and future relationships between domestic currencies and equity markets. None avail themselves of short or easy answers. Until I have thought my way through them more fully, I remain hesitant to make any definitive decisions. Progress Progress against the objective, and the additional measures I have reached is set out below. Measure Portfolio All Assets Portfolio Objective – $2 180 000 (or $87 000 pa) 85.2% 115.9% Credit card purchases – $71 000 pa 103.9% 141.4% Total expenses – $89 000 pa 83.3% 113.3% Summary This month has seen rapid progress, propelling the portfolio closer to both old and new goals. The portfolio gains this month have already closed nearly half of the additional distance created by increasing my portfolio target at the beginning of the year. The psychological forward push from distributions performance across 2019 (including, pleasingly, seeing it recognised here) has added to this sense of momentum. Additionally, this month I have also crossed the threshold to the target portfolio size needed to achieve 'credit card FI', a long-standing measure I have tracked. The long summer break that has just ended in some ways seemed like a foretaste of what some versions of financial independence could feel like. With the minimum of planning there was time to read, rest, exercise and write largely as I pleased. Returning to work following this has been infused with an unusual sense of being a temporary visitor in a new workplace. There is a greater philosophical detachment, in observing its rituals and rhythms, and less of a desire to seek to shape or resist its minutiae. Rather, what I have focused on is seeking to more deliberately make use of the freedoms it does not constrain, and pursue the best and most interesting use of the time that is outside of work hours. Through these recent strong Australian and US equity markets, this article has been a useful reminder of the 'survivorship' risks of focusing a FI target too narrowly on past performance. This excellent recent piece from Aussie HIFIRE has also, from another direction, usefully focused on separating out the decisions that do, and do not, materially matter in planning and executing on a passive indexing strategy over the long-term. For a challenging and entirely heterodox view on the potential long-term movement of equity markets upwards from here, this article has been thought-provoking. Finally, this month I have been discovering the Jolly Swagman podcast, which has long and fascinating interviews with the ex-head of the Reserve Bank of Australia, and Nobel Prize winning US economist Robert Shiller speaking on bubbles and narrative economics. During the long restful hours of summer break, the day has advanced. Though clouds may come in time, as the year starts - at least - the way forward looks bright. The post, links and full charts can be seen here.