Binary Options USA - 2020's Best Trading Brokers

If I start with $600 and day trade it to 1k then lose it all, do I owe taxes on it? binary options

Was just doing this for fun and am wondering the tax implications.
submitted by helpmedecide2015 to stocks [link] [comments]

Wall Street Week Ahead for the trading week beginning June 29th, 2020

Good Saturday afternoon to all of you here on StockMarket. I hope everyone on this sub made out pretty nicely in the market this past week, and is ready for the new trading week ahead.
Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning June 29th, 2020.

Fragile economic recovery faces first big test with June jobs report in the week ahead - (Source)

The second half of 2020 is nearly here, and now it’s up to the economy to prove that the stock market was right about a sharp comeback in growth.
The first big test will be the June jobs report, out on Thursday instead of its usual Friday release due to the July 4 holiday. According to Refinitiv, economists expect 3 million jobs were created, after May’s surprise gain of 2.5 million payrolls beat forecasts by a whopping 10 million jobs.
“If it’s stronger, it will suggest that the improvement is quicker, and that’s kind of what we saw in May with better retail sales, confidence was coming back a little and auto sales were better,” said Kevin Cummins, chief U.S. economist at NatWest Markets.
The second quarter winds down in the week ahead as investors are hopeful about the recovery but warily eyeing rising cases of Covid-19 in a number of states.
Stocks were lower for the week, as markets reacted to rising cases in Texas, Florida and other states. Investors worry about the threat to the economic rebound as those states move to curb some activities. The S&P 500 is up more than 16% so far for the second quarter, and it is down nearly 7% for the year. Friday’s losses wiped out the last of the index’s June gains.
“I think the stock market is looking beyond the valley. It is expecting a V-shaped economic recovery and a solid 2021 earnings picture,” said Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA. He expects large-cap company earnings to be up 30% next year, and small-cap profits to bounce back by 140%.
“I think the second half needs to be a ‘show me’ period, proving that our optimism was justified, and we’ll need to see continued improvement in the economic data, and I think we need to see upward revisions to earnings estimates,” Stovall said.
Liz Ann Sonders, chief investment strategist at Charles Schwab, said she expects the recovery will not be as smooth as some expect, particularly considering the resurgence of virus outbreaks in sunbelt states and California.
“Now as I watch what’s happening I think it’s more likely to be rolling Ws,” rather than a V, she said. “It’s not just predicated on a second wave. I’m not sure we ever exited the first wave.”
Even without actual state shutdowns, the virus could slow economic activity. “That doesn’t mean businesses won’t shut themselves down, or consumers won’t back down more,” she said.

Election ahead

In the second half of the year, the market should turn its attention to the election, but Sonders does not expect much reaction to it until after Labor Day. RealClearPolitics average of polls shows Democrat Joe Biden leading President Donald Trump by 10 percentage points, and the odds of a Democratic sweep have been rising.
Biden has said he would raise corporate taxes, and some strategists say a sweep would be bad for business, due to increased regulation and higher taxes. Trump is expected to continue using tariffs, which unsettles the market, though both candidates are expected to take a tough stance on China.
“If it looks like the Senate stays Republican than there’s less to worry about in terms of policy changes,” Sonders said. “I don’t think it’s ever as binary as some people think.”
Stovall said a quick study shows that in the four presidential election years back to 1960, where the first quarter was negative, and the second quarter positive, stocks made gains in the second half.
Those were 1960 when John Kennedy took office, 1968, when Richard Nixon won; 1980 when Ronald Reagan’s was elected to his first term; and 1992, the first win by Bill Clinton. Coincidentally, in all of those years, the opposing party gained control of the White House.

Stimulus

The stocks market’s strong second-quarter showing came after the Fed and Congress moved quickly to inject the economy with trillions in stimulus. That unlocked credit markets and triggered a stampede by companies to restructure or issue debt. About $2 trillion in fiscal spending was aimed at consumers and businesses, who were in sudden need of cash after the abrupt shutdown of the economy.
Fed Chairman Jerome Powell and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin both testify before the House Financial Services Committee Tuesday on the response to the virus. That will be important as markets look ahead to another fiscal package from Congress this summer, which is expected to provide aid to states and local governments; extend some enhanced benefits for unemployment, and provide more support for businesses.
“So much of it is still so fluid. There are a bunch of fiscal items that are rolling off. There’s talk about another fiscal stimulus payment like they did last time with a $1,200 check,” said Cummins.
Strategists expect Congress to bicker about the size and content of the stimulus package but ultimately come to an agreement before enhanced unemployment benefits run out at the end of July. Cummins said state budgets begin a new year July 1, and states with a critical need for funds may have to start letting workers go, as they cut expenses.
The Trump administration has indicated the jobs report Thursday could help shape the fiscal package, depending on what it shows. The federal supplement to state unemployment benefits has been $600 a week, but there is opposition to extending that, and strategists expect it to be at least cut in half.
The unemployment rate is expected to fall to 12.2% from 13.3% in May. Cummins said he had expected 7.2 million jobs, well above the consensus, and an unemployment rate of 11.8%.
As of last week, nearly 20 million people were collecting state unemployment benefits, and millions more were collecting under a federal pandemic aid program.
“The magnitude here and whether it’s 3 million or 7 million is kind of hard to handicap to begin with,” Cummins said. Economists have preferred to look at unemployment claims as a better real time read of employment, but they now say those numbers could be impacted by slow reporting or double filing.
“There’s no clarity on how you define the unemployed in the Covid 19 environment,” said Chris Rupkey, chief financial economist at MUFG Union Bank. “If there’s 30 million people receiving insurance, unemployment should be above 20%.

This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL S&P TREE MAP FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

Major Indices for this past week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR INDICES FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

Major Futures Markets as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR FUTURES INDICES AS OF FRIDAY!)

Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL ECONOMIC CALENDAR FOR THE WEEK AHEAD!)

Percentage Changes for the Major Indices, WTD, MTD, QTD, YTD as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

S&P Sectors for the Past Week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Major Indices Pullback/Correction Levels as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!

Major Indices Rally Levels as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for this week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Friday's Stock Analyst Upgrades & Downgrades:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #1!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #2!)

When Will The Economy Recover?

The economy is moving in the right direction, as many economic data points are coming in substantially better than what the economists expected. From May job gains coming in more than 10 million higher than expected and retail sales soaring a record 18%, how quickly the economy is bouncing back has surprised nearly everyone.
“As good as the recent economic data has been, we want to make it clear, it could still take years for the economy to fully come back,” explained LPL Financial Senior Market Strategist Ryan Detrick. “Think of it like building a house. You get all the big stuff done early, then some of the small things take so much longer to finish; I’m looking at you crown molding.”
Here’s the hard truth; it might take years for all of the jobs that were lost to fully recover. In fact, during the 10 recessions since 1950, it took an average of 30 months for lost jobs to finally come back. As the LPL Chart of the Day shows, recoveries have taken much longer lately. In fact, it took four years for the jobs lost during the tech bubble recession of the early 2000s to come back and more than six years for all the jobs lost to come back after the Great Recession. Given many more jobs were lost during this recession, it could takes many years before all of them indeed come back.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
The economy is going the right direction, and if there is no major second wave outbreak it could surprise to the upside. Importantly, this economic recovery will still be a long and bumpy road.

Nasdaq - Russell Spread Pulling the Rubber Band Tight

The Nasdaq has been outperforming every other US-based equity index over the last year, and nowhere has the disparity been wider than with small caps. The chart below compares the performance of the Nasdaq and Russell 2000 over the last 12 months. While the performance disparity is wide now, through last summer, the two indices were tracking each other nearly step for step. Then last fall, the Nasdaq started to steadily pull ahead before really separating itself in the bounce off the March lows. Just to illustrate how wide the gap between the two indices has become, over the last six months, the Nasdaq is up 11.9% compared to a decline of 15.8% for the Russell 2000. That's wide!
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
In order to put the recent performance disparity between the two indices into perspective, the chart below shows the rolling six-month performance spread between the two indices going back to 1980. With a current spread of 27.7 percentage points, the gap between the two indices hasn't been this wide since the days of the dot-com boom. Back in February 2000, the spread between the two indices widened out to more than 50 percentage points. Not only was that period extreme, but ten months before that extreme reading, the spread also widened out to more than 51 percentage points. The current spread is wide, but with two separate periods in 1999 and 2000 where the performance gap between the two indices was nearly double the current level, that was a period where the Nasdaq REALLY outperformed small caps.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
To illustrate the magnitude of the Nasdaq's outperformance over the Russell 2000 from late 1998 through early 2000, the chart below shows the performance of the two indices beginning in October 1998. From that point right on through March of 2000 when the Nasdaq peaked, the Nasdaq rallied more than 200% compared to the Russell 2000 which was up a relatively meager 64%. In any other environment, a 64% gain in less than a year and a half would be excellent, but when it was under the shadow of the surging Nasdaq, it seemed like a pittance.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Share Price Performance

The US equity market made its most recent peak on June 8th. From the March 23rd low through June 8th, the average stock in the large-cap Russell 1,000 was up more than 65%! Since June 8th, the average stock in the index is down more than 11%. Below we have broken the index into deciles (10 groups of 100 stocks each) based on simple share price as of June 8th. Decile 1 (marked "Highest" in the chart) contains the 10% of stocks with the highest share prices. Decile 10 (marked "Lowest" in the chart) contains the 10% of stocks with the lowest share prices. As shown, the highest priced decile of stocks are down an average of just 4.8% since June 8th, while the lowest priced decile of stocks are down an average of 21.5%. It's pretty remarkable how performance gets weaker and weaker the lower the share price gets.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Nasdaq 2% Pullbacks From Record Highs

It's hard to believe that sentiment can change so fast in the market that one day investors and traders are bidding up stocks to record highs, but then the next day sell them so much that it takes the market down over 2%. That's exactly what happened not only in the last two days but also two weeks ago. While the 5% pullback from a record high back on June 10th took the Nasdaq back below its February high, this time around, the Nasdaq has been able to hold above those February highs.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
In the entire history of the Nasdaq, there have only been 12 periods prior to this week where the Nasdaq closed at an all-time high on one day but dropped more than 2% the next day. Those occurrences are highlighted in the table below along with the index's performance over the following week, month, three months, six months, and one year. We have also highlighted each occurrence that followed a prior one by less than three months in gray. What immediately stands out in the table is how much gray shading there is. In other words, these types of events tend to happen in bunches, and if you count the original occurrence in each of the bunches, the only two occurrences that didn't come within three months of another occurrence (either before or after) were July 1986 and May 2017.
In terms of market performance following prior occurrences, the Nasdaq's average and median returns were generally below average, but there is a pretty big caveat. While the average one-year performance was a gain of 1.0% and a decline of 23.6% on a median basis, the six occurrences that came between December 1999 and March 2000 all essentially cover the same period (which was very bad) and skew the results. Likewise, the three occurrences in the two-month stretch from late November 1998 through January 1999 where the Nasdaq saw strong gains also involves a degree of double-counting. As a result of these performances at either end of the extreme, it's hard to draw any trends from the prior occurrences except to say that they are typically followed by big moves in either direction. The only time the Nasdaq wasn't either 20% higher or lower one year later was in 1986.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Christmas in July: NASDAQ’s Mid-Year Rally

In the mid-1980s the market began to evolve into a tech-driven market and the market’s focus in early summer shifted to the outlook for second quarter earnings of technology companies. Over the last three trading days of June and the first nine trading days in July, NASDAQ typically enjoys a rally. This 12-day run has been up 27 of the past 35 years with an average historical gain of 2.5%. This year the rally may have begun a day early, today and could last until on or around July 14.
After the bursting of the tech bubble in 2000, NASDAQ’s mid-year rally had a spotty track record from 2002 until 2009 with three appearances and five no-shows in those years. However, it has been quite solid over the last ten years, up nine times with a single mild 0.1% loss in 2015. Last year, NASDAQ advanced a solid 4.6% during the 12-day span.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Tech Historically Leads Market Higher Until Q3 of Election Years

As of yesterday’s close DJIA was down 8.8% year-to-date. S&P 500 was down 3.5% and NASDAQ was up 12.1%. Compared to the typical election year, DJIA and S&P 500 are below historical average performance while NASDAQ is above average. However this year has not been a typical election year. Due to the covid-19, the market suffered the damage of the shortest bear market on record and a new bull market all before the first half of the year has come to an end.
In the surrounding Seasonal Patten Charts of DJIA, S&P 500 and NASDAQ, we compare 2020 (as of yesterday’s close) to All Years and Election Years. This year’s performance has been plotted on the right vertical axis in each chart. This year certainly has been unlike any other however some notable observations can be made. For DJIA and S&P 500, January, February and approximately half of March have historically been weak, on average, in election years. This year the bear market ended on March 23. Following those past weak starts, DJIA and S&P 500 historically enjoyed strength lasting into September before experiencing any significant pullback followed by a nice yearend rally. NASDAQ’s election year pattern differs somewhat with six fewer years of data, but it does hint to a possible late Q3 peak.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

STOCK MARKET VIDEO: Stock Market Analysis Video for Week Ending June 26th, 2020

(CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!

STOCK MARKET VIDEO: ShadowTrader Video Weekly 6.28.20

(CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!)
Here are the most notable companies (tickers) reporting earnings in this upcoming trading week ahead-
  • $MU
  • $GIS
  • $FDX
  • $CAG
  • $STZ
  • $CPRI
  • $XYF
  • $AYI
  • $MEI
  • $UNF
  • $CDMO
  • $SCHN
  • $LNN
  • $CULP
  • $XELA
  • $KFY
  • $RTIX
  • $JRSH
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S MOST NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!)
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S HIGHEST VOLATILITY EARNINGS RELEASES!)
(CLICK HERE FOR MOST NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES FOR THE NEXT 4 WEEKS!)
Below are some of the notable companies coming out with earnings releases this upcoming trading week ahead which includes the date/time of release & consensus estimates courtesy of Earnings Whispers:

Monday 6.29.20 Before Market Open:

([CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
NONE.

Monday 6.29.20 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Tuesday 6.30.20 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Tuesday 6.30.20 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Wednesday 7.1.20 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Wednesday 7.1.20 After Market Close:

([CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
NONE.

Thursday 7.2.20 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Thursday 7.2.20 After Market Close:

([CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
NONE.

Friday 7.3.20 Before Market Open:

([CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
NONE.

Friday 7.3.20 After Market Close:

([CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
NONE.

Micron Technology, Inc. $48.49

Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:00 PM ET on Monday, June 29, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.71 per share on revenue of $5.27 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.70 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 71% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for earnings of $0.40 to $0.70 per share. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 29.00% with revenue increasing by 10.07%. Short interest has increased by 7.6% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 8.0% from its open following the earnings release to be 0.9% below its 200 day moving average of $48.94. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Thursday, June 11, 2020 there was some notable buying of 46,037 contracts of the $60.00 call expiring on Friday, July 17, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 4.6% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 8.4% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

General Mills, Inc. $59.21

General Mills, Inc. (GIS) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:00 AM ET on Wednesday, July 1, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.04 per share on revenue of $4.89 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.10 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 69% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 25.30% with revenue increasing by 17.50%. Short interest has decreased by 9.4% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 2.7% from its open following the earnings release to be 7.8% above its 200 day moving average of $54.91. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Wednesday, June 24, 2020 there was some notable buying of 8,573 contracts of the $60.00 call expiring on Friday, July 17, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 6.6% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 3.0% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

FedEx Corp. $130.08

FedEx Corp. (FDX) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:00 PM ET on Tuesday, June 30, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.42 per share on revenue of $16.31 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.65 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 61% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 71.66% with revenue decreasing by 8.41%. Short interest has increased by 10.4% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 43.9% from its open following the earnings release to be 7.6% below its 200 day moving average of $140.75. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Thursday, June 25, 2020 there was some notable buying of 1,768 contracts of the $145.00 call expiring on Thursday, July 2, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 4.6% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 7.7% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Conagra Brands, Inc. $32.64

Conagra Brands, Inc. (CAG) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:30 AM ET on Tuesday, June 30, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.66 per share on revenue of $3.24 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.69 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 66% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 83.33% with revenue increasing by 23.99%. Short interest has decreased by 38.3% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 6.3% from its open following the earnings release to be 6.4% above its 200 day moving average of $30.68. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Thursday, June 11, 2020 there was some notable buying of 3,239 contracts of the $29.00 put expiring on Thursday, July 2, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 4.7% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 10.8% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Constellation Brands, Inc. $168.99

Constellation Brands, Inc. (STZ) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:30 AM ET on Wednesday, July 1, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.91 per share on revenue of $1.97 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $2.12 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 53% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 13.57% with revenue decreasing by 13.69%. Short interest has increased by 20.8% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 25.2% from its open following the earnings release to be 5.2% below its 200 day moving average of $178.34. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Tuesday, June 9, 2020 there was some notable buying of 888 contracts of the $195.00 call expiring on Friday, October 16, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 3.1% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 5.7% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Capri Holdings Limited $14.37

Capri Holdings Limited (CPRI) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:30 AM ET on Wednesday, July 1, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.32 per share on revenue of $1.18 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.34 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 39% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for earnings of $0.68 to $0.73 per share. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 49.21% with revenue decreasing by 12.20%. Short interest has increased by 35.1% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 56.7% from its open following the earnings release to be 44.0% below its 200 day moving average of $25.67. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Thursday, June 4, 2020 there was some notable buying of 11,042 contracts of the $17.50 put expiring on Friday, August 21, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 10.8% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 6.7% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

X Financial $0.92

X Financial (XYF) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 5:00 PM ET on Tuesday, June 30, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.09 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 25% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 55.00% with revenue increasing by 763.52%. Short interest has increased by 1.0% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 1.2% from its open following the earnings release to be 37.7% below its 200 day moving average of $1.47. Overall earnings estimates have been unchanged since the company's last earnings release. The stock has averaged a 4.9% move on earnings in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Acuity Brands, Inc. $84.45

Acuity Brands, Inc. (AYI) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 8:40 AM ET on Tuesday, June 30, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.14 per share on revenue of $809.25 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.09 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 42% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 51.90% with revenue decreasing by 14.60%. Short interest has increased by 48.5% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 2.4% from its open following the earnings release to be 23.4% below its 200 day moving average of $110.25. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. Option traders are pricing in a 9.2% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 8.2% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Methode Electronics, Inc. $30.02

Methode Electronics, Inc. (MEI) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:00 AM ET on Tuesday, June 30, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.77 per share on revenue of $211.39 million. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 45% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 24.19% with revenue decreasing by 20.53%. Short interest has increased by 6.2% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 1.7% from its open following the earnings release to be 9.0% below its 200 day moving average of $32.97. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. Option traders are pricing in a 18.4% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 8.1% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

UniFirst Corporation $170.54

UniFirst Corporation (UNF) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 8:00 AM ET on Wednesday, July 1, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.17 per share on revenue of $378.28 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.25 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 44% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 52.44% with revenue decreasing by 16.63%. Short interest has decreased by 2.7% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 14.1% from its open following the earnings release to be 8.4% below its 200 day moving average of $186.14. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. The stock has averaged a 7.0% move on earnings in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

DISCUSS!

What are you all watching for in this upcoming trading week?
I hope you all have a wonderful weekend and a great trading week ahead StockMarket.
submitted by bigbear0083 to StockMarket [link] [comments]

The Sun Rises as Usual: My thoughts on the enactment of the national security law in Hong Kong (Author: Simon Shen 沈旭暉)

The below essay by Simon Shen (沈旭暉), a Hong Kong-based political scientist and columnist.
Link to original essay: Facebook
YouTube channel (Cantonese)
His videos and articles has been on this sub a few times (See https://redd.it/hmttfa https://redd.it/gn5j83), so I thought this one is also worth a read and discuss, whether we agree or not.

The Sun Rises as Usual: My thoughts on the enactment of the national security law in Hong Kong

July 1st, 2020 shall be remembered as the day Hong Kong completed its second Handover to China. A strong sense of despair clouds over the city as Beijing nuked us with the National Security Law (NSL). The thought of losing the authenticity of Hong Kong forever is ingrained in many of us.
The same day, the sun rises in the east as usual.The rule of thumb to survive this era of turmoil is to maintain control of your mental state. Remain unflappable by the ongoing absurdity. You live your life at your own pace with no restrictions. And that is how you win in society, at the workplace, on campus, and in marriage.
As to how we could achieve that, I hope my two-cents would give you some ideas.
The officials expected us to be overwhelmed, terrified, and occupied by NSL. Nevertheless, the clauses of the law have never been the main course of this extravagant meal. What truly awaits for us is the complete makeover of the Hong Kong ruling. Abolishing the standard procedure inherited from British Hong Kong, rationality and logical decision-making are soon replaced by the ambiguity of the authoritarian “rule of law” of China. Hong Kong has lost its place in the globe at the mercy of NSL; that is, to show a lucid message: Beijing could withdraw the “One Country, Two Systems” principle however it sees fit. Moreover, it is the re-education training CCP set up for Hongkongers to make them know their place and accept the “Mainland ideology,” which includes tolerating laws and regulations that are more “lenient” to serve the Chinese political agenda. Placing the national interests in heart, it is farewell to “Rule of Law,” and the common understanding of right and wrong and dos and don’ts.
This is the textbook example of authoritarian ruling. Perhaps people would be seeing some form of democracy and freedom; however, those were merely decoys in which the supreme power vested afar.
23 years after the Handover, pro-Beijing population remains small by default. The young generation rebukes Chinese identity even more than before. The enactment of NSL indicates the failure of CCP’s strategic approaches to entice Hongkongers. If the regular and United Front approaches failed through, they might as well execute eradication instead. It may appear as China is calling for enticement, but the underlying measures/gimmicks are showing something else. The grand Unity of Mainland and Hong Kong is nothing more than a hoax.
In this new Hong Kong, measurements taken to appease public backlash or allow people to express their frustration toward politicians or policies are stored in the past. Furthermore, the Hong Kong government has adopted more extreme approaches—severing Hong Kong into the pro-democracy camp and the pro-Beijing camp; bringing back Cultural Revolution tactics to effectively counteract dissentance; and activating 24/7 monitorization of the population. The propaganda of the CCP regime is to increasingly disintegrate the mutual trust between people by ratting and spying. Building the new norm where the civil society crumbles and espionage is normalized. People with malicious intent may find this new world rather exciting. Without the checks and balances or supervision in the system, the escalating waves of purging the “impure” in the next 2 years are anticipated.
The hostile public opinion of Hong Kong toward Beijing’s decisions have always been a throne in the flesh for the ruling party which led to it prioritizing the disunification of the Hong Kong civil society in the following 2 years—gathering the elites from all professions, alternating the policies of media regulations, reforming education to be more CCP-interests-oriented, and emphasizing the governmental compliance of all departments for effective executions of the new laws. The small population that is most affected by NSL would be those who are in the “Four Black Categories,” including the influencers and KOLs. The two major key points for Hong Kong government’s guidelines are “rule by law” and “always have the national interests at heart.” Regardless of NSL, Public Order Ordinance(POO) per se or any other laws could be used to incriminate the dissidents. Even a world-renowned Chinese artist such as Ai Weiwei was accused of Tax Evasion. Apolitical celebrities with millions of fans and could also be targeted; e.g. Fan Bingbing. Over time, people would adapt to self-censorship. As their minds slowly die of a thousand cuts to circumvent trespassing the political “bottom-line”, it includes avoiding dissenting the propaganda and minimizing exposure that may attract unwanted attention.
Oddly enough, if you were to be a tourist, you probably would not be able to capture the post-NSL nuances of this hollow Hong Kong. You would see all business continue, stock market arises, and the real estate market thrives as usual. It is as if the script written for the second Handover would play out successfully, as long as the basic needs of Hongkongers are satisfied.
Amidst of this turmoil, Hongkongers wouldn’t need me to elaborate more; however, we should ask ourselves if there is something else that we could do. Do you still remember how we were like before all of these occur? What are the options we have aside from obeying to the laws, immigrating out of our homeland, or starting riots? How should we live in the middle of this mess?
From the anti-extradition law protest to the ongoing movement we have today—disregarding the variations in the slogans—we are a part of the global transformation which is beyond politics and may very well be a segment of the fourth industrial revolution. Moving forward from now, with AI replacing brain-power taxing positions, it would be unlikely for anyone to have a stable job and their retirement secured. With that being said, we are facing a tomorrow where people could no longer rely on a singular path for career planning. The younglings are determined and flexible about making chances. They are independent individuals who seek for autonomy in life without relying on governmental entities, pro-establishment units, and consortiums, for their survival which tie into a global trend. The “ultrastable system” of the good old times Hong Kong is in the past. The young generation is calling for “Laam Chau.” (self-destruction to counterbalance Hong Kong government) Acknowledging the fact that enduring injustice would not secure any job positions, the young generation tends to take on entrepreneurship and minimizing their political dependency.
Many friends started talking about immigration. A decade ago, the media were hyping the topic regarding whether or not I would be immigrating to Singapore. I have been repeating myself—the concept of immigration is obsolete. Over the past year, would you say that the overseas Hongkongers contributed more to the movement or the apolitical Hongkongers? Even if we hold multiple citizenships, travel around the world, send our children to study abroad, or hold investments in another country, what would it matter? Any of those would not affect our Hongkonger identity. When online classes are given remotely on Zoom, would it matter if you are in Hong Kong or in Congo? The physical location of Hong Kong shouldn’t tie us down. We should sever ourselves from the idea of leaving or staying and make the world our home. By stitching the virtual world to the real world, we are undefeated by constant change. To me, that is what Hong Kong really is.
All censorship from the authoritarian regime have one in common; that is, the oppressions could never be reasoned with the Common Law. If the pro-democracy anthem, “Glory to Hong Kong,” is prohibited to be sung on campuses, what about the 80’s Cantopop hit, “Boundless Oceans, Vast Skies” or “Blowing in the Wind” which both hint liberation in the lyrics? As the movement slogan, “Five Demands, Not One Less,” was banned, could the protesters express their dissent by raising their hands to point out 5 and 1 or having the number 5 and 1 written over their tops? Does everything related to the number 5 and 1 need to be a politically sensitive topic? Could we still talk about the Labor Day that falls on May 1st? The rebellious ideology is embedded in the mind of Hong Kong protesters, as people have witnessed the incompetence of our government on a daily basis. This movement has been embodying innovation in various ways. No extra commentaries are needed. This is the true essence of “be water.”
Similarly, Poland and the Czech Republic in the 60s were under greater oppression than what we have been seeing in recent Hong Kong; however, “life always finds a way.” We now live in a globalized world where “colluding foreign forces” is unnecessary, with the help of our overseas brothers and sisters to amplify the pro-democracy messages to the international community. We shall acknowledge the fact that dwelling on the past does no one any good for sustaining this movement.
You could be someone who lacks the courage to venture out of the comfort zone, refuses to adapt to having multiple careers, resists leaving the physical location of Hong Kong, fears to put on a yellow helmet (a pro-democracy symbol), and chooses to be enslaved by the ruling party. Even if you are a Blue Ribbon ( pro-established or pro-Beijing person), as long as you are not a part of the most extreme 20% of the deep Blue Ribbon community, I say you are still a very valuable asset to Hong Kong. In this NSL-enacted Hong Kong, you should give it some thoughts about what advantages you hold that the “new Hongkongers” cannot offer. If you cannot answer this question, then no matter how patriotic you are, you will be eliminated in the next wave of selection. “Survival the fittest.” Even in Chinese companies, they still need Hongkongers to do the due diligence for them. In bureaucratic institutions, the Chinese would still need someone with a creative spirit and an international perspective while putting on a nationalist front.
Many have expressed their concerns toward the implementation of “Indoctrination” in Hong Kong, including some of the pro-Beijing parents. By sending their children to non-state-owned schools, their actions speak louder than their words. The new trend of education has confirmed that the traditional classroom model inherited from the 19th century Prussian teaching is outdated. Through big data, the teaching materials are personalized for individuals; moreover, students may build up their unique libraries of knowledge via their personal experience and curiosity. Regretfully, the new Hong Kong under authoritarian ruling embraces a rigid education system where syllabi and marking scheme is key to grooming the next generation of nationalists. The instructors would be under surveillance, school principals would bend to state-interests policies, and households would monitor each other for anti-government speeches or actions. Apparently, CCP would not succeed in brainwashing anyone with these educational reformations. Perhaps, Tik Tok may be more effective. Personalized education is an irreversible global trend. The authoritarian Hong Kong could butcher education but it could not prevent people from adapting to other alternatives. I would like to believe that the younger generations would harness the power of the internet and seize the opportunities given by an international community that has become more amiable to Hong Kong.
NSL’s main target is those who are “in collusion with foreign forces. How ironic is it to see how the strong connections between Hong Kong and the global community came back to bite per se? I recall reading from a research report, stating that on average every 1 out of 3 to 4 Hongkongers have connections overseas—overseas relatives, holding foreign qualifications or degrees, overseas working experience, having international investments, or having work contacts with foreign employees. Hongkongers have been colluding with the foreign forces before NSL made it a crime. The 2020 Hong Kong is suffering from cultural discontinuity created by the conflicts between the Chinese authoritarian system and the Western democracy system. Soon enough, “mass surveillance enabled by Big Data” vs. “A.I. regulated by privacy concerns” could be a multiple choice question for all Hongkongers. As long as Hongkongers are connected to the global network, we shall not lose our resilience against oppression.
To sum it up, Hongkongers have incorporated the world into “the revolution of our time.” March on and be water. The world we are facing is no longer black and white or binary of any sort. We may not reap what we sow. This is a long-term fight that requires us to be resourceful, as well as being mentally and physically prepared.
You may ask if I have ever wanted to leave Hong Kong. Ironically, since my 18th birthday, I have never stayed in Hong Kong for so long. The past 6 months, aside from pandemic, I have been sentimental toward this land. My profession and residences require me to travel a lot of places. I hardly stayed in Hong Kong for long as I made that decision deliberately 10 years ago. Now you may understand where I am coming from. Thus, I would not change for this NSL-enacted Hong Kong. I would not stay to make a statement, nor would I leave this land to make a stance. To my dear friends out there, my piece of advice has been the same—live like a digital nomad and have your footstep stamped locally and globally. No need to start from scratch. You may join a community that is well-established.
Should I self-censor for my safety? I’ve never been an editorial writer. My rationally words and videos are merely personal expressions of a Hongkonger. I honestly can’t get any more cautious. I am the same Simon Shen, now and always. We should not take any form of harassment or attacks personally.
Before the extradition law and the NSL, CCP had been effectively silencing dissents by sending them on one-way trips to Mainland China (i.e. Causeway Bay Books disappearances). The regime needed no bills to aid its attempt of kidnapping those who dare to voice up. Hong Kong has fallen too fast that no one bothers to attack or criticize the kidnaps. There is no such thing as making something less absurd by talking about it more. The systematic oppression of Hong Kong’s civil freedom does not only come from the without but also the within; especially when nowadays all we could talk about is “safety” and “survival.” It is exactly what CCP wanted for us to believe—we are trapped and our lives depends on our compliance. Hongkongers are being tested for our resilience. If we couldn’t pass this challenge together, how could we stand up tall as proud Hongkongers?
As to making ends meet, I’ve always believed that the global Hongkonger network is a large enough of encomany to support, expand, and give back to Hong Kong. We are all at its mercy, including me becoming a KOL. Within the Hongkonger community, I wish to be more practical and strategic; especially, in terms of elevating our quality of living. CCP is extremely calculative and different from us. It is my deepest belief that when the world sees how irreplaceable Hongkongers are that is the day when we can anticipate change. Before then, we will keep a low profile and prepare for this long battle.
Do expect the next two years to be a long rollercoaster ride with plenty of ups and downs. Hongkongers will only thrive through the hardships. Buckle up, winter is coming.
submitted by baylearn to HongKong [link] [comments]

Imagining a Cities:Skylines 2

So how’s your quarantine going? I’ve been playing a fair amount of C:S lately and thought I might speculate on what could be improved in Cities: Skylines 2. Besides, it’s not like I have anything better to do.
What C:S gets right and wrong
Besides great modability and post-release support, C:S combines an agent based economy with a sense of scale. It also has the kind of road design tools that SC4 veterans would have killed for. District based city planning for things like universities was one of the best innovations in the genre in years, and the introduction of industry supply chains, while clunky and tacked on, brought much needed depth to the game.
C:S suffers most notably from a lack of revisit rate to previously constructed things. Build a power plant: forget about it. Build a port: forget about it. Build a downtown: forget about it. The player isn’t incentivized to revisit old parts of the city to upgrade and improve them. The district system for universities and industry was a fantastic innovation that demonstrated how to do this concept well, and consequently they are some of the most fun and engaging parts of the game.
The biggest criticism of C:S, despite its powerful design tools, is that it feels like a city painter. The systems feel rich at first, but become very formulaic after a few hours. There are no hard trade-offs. Providing every inch of your city with maximum services will not bankrupt you, nor will an economy of nothing but the rich and well-educated collapse from a lack of unskilled labor. In the end, every city dies of boredom once the player exhausts the game’s relatively shallow well of novelty.
The biggest areas for Improvement
submitted by naive_grandeur to CitiesSkylines [link] [comments]

Addressing Canada’s Employment Insurance Gap For Self-Employed Workers

Source: TD
Ksenia Bushmeneva, Economist
Dated July 15th, 2020

Highlights


Chart 1 - Workers in More Precarious Employment See Steep Job Losses

Chart 2 - COVID-19 Self-employed to Cut Hours Worked Drastically

EI Leaves Many Non-Standard Workers Behind


Chart 3 - Self-employed Workers Much More Likely to Apply for CERB

Chart 4 - Prevalence of Self-employment Varies by Province

What Complicates Offering EI Coverage For Non-Standard Workers


Chart 5 - Maternity and Family Benefits Available to Self-employment

Chart 6 - Sickness, Disability, and Work Injury Coverage Available to Self-Employed

Some Solutions Based on The International Experience


Chart 7 - Unemployment Benefits Coverage Options to Self-employed

Chart 8 - Old-age Pensions Coverage Options Available to Self-employed

Concluding Remarks


References

  1. “Employment Insurance Coverage Survey, 2018”. Statistics Canada. https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/191114/dq191114a-eng.htm
  2. Sunil Johal & Erich Hartmann. “Facilitating the Future of Work Through Modernizing EI System”. The Mowat Center. https://ppforum.ca/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/PPF-Modernizing-EI-for-Future-of-Work-April-2019-EN.pdf
  3. Antonia Asenjo and Clemente Pignatti. “Unemployment insurance schemes around the world: Evidence and policy options.” International Labour Office. https://www.ilo.org/wcmsp5/groups/public/---dgreports/---inst/documents/publication/wcms_723778.pdf
  4. Sung-Hee Jeon and Yuri Ostrovsky. “The impact of COVID-19 on the gig economy: Short- and long-term concerns”. Statistics Canada. https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/en/pub/45-28-0001/2020001/article/00021-eng.pdf?st=x8kZDLV7
  5. Sunil Johal & Erich Hartmann. “Facilitating the Future of Work Through Modernizing EI System”. The Mowat Center. https://ppforum.ca/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/PPF-Modernizing-EI-for-Future-of-Work-April-2019-EN.pdf Ibid.
  6. “Evaluation of the Employment Insurance Special Benefits for Self-employed Workers”. Employment and Social Development Canada. https://www.canada.ca/en/employment-social-development/corporate/reports/evaluations/2016-ei-special-benefits.html
  7. “The Future of Social Protection: what works for non-standard workers?” OECD. https://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/sites/9789264306943-en/1/2/1/index.html?itemId=/content/publication/9789264306943-en&_csp_=60072f6c81e5afb306d1ad580d284396&itemIGO=oecd&itemContentType=book#chapter-d1e549 Ibid.
  8. “Key Small Business Statistics - January 2019”. Statistics Canada. https://www.ic.gc.ca/eic/site/061.nsf/eng/h_03090.html#point1-3 Ibid.
  9. “Government Response To The Fifth Report Of The Standing Committee on The Status of Women. Interim Report on the Maternity and Parental Benefits Under Employment Insurance: the Exclusion of Self-Employed Workers.” https://www.ourcommons.ca/DocumentVieween/39-1/FEWO/report-5/response-8512-391-19
  10. “Evaluation of the Employment Insurance Special Benefits for Self-employed Workers”. Employment and Social Development Canada. https://www.canada.ca/en/employment-social development/corporate/reports/evaluations/2016-ei-special-benefits.html

End Notes

  1. Since 2010 self-employed workers can voluntarily participate in EI Special Benefit for Self-Employed Workers (SBSE) to gain access to many life event-type benefits accessible to regular employees, such as maternity and paternity leave programs, leave due to sickness or to care for an sick family member. In addition to this, current EI system allows certain exceptions for some non-standard workers. For example some individuals who work independently as barbers, hairdressers, taxi drivers, drivers of other passenger vehicles are eligible to receive benefits through the regular EI program. Fishermen are also included as insured persons under the EI Fishing Regulations. In the case of the self- employed fishermen, EI qualification is tied to income. In order to qualify for up to 26 weeks of benefit, they need to have earned between $2,500 to $4,200 in the last 31 weeks.
  2. The two main reasons for not contributing to the EI program were not having worked in the previous 12 months, and non-insurable employment (which includes self-employment).
submitted by AwesomeMathUse to econmonitor [link] [comments]

Fixing Valorant's mediocre anti aliasing

Fixing Valorant's mediocre anti aliasing
tl;dr set SGSSAA through nvidia inspector, and make its settings files read-only. I don't know if AMD cards can do this.
The in-game AA barely improves edges, maxing it out with nvidia control panel makes it a little better, but sparse grid super sampled AA is almost perfect. It's usually pretty taxing but I haven't noticed a difference in my fps on my 2060 ko ultra and 9700k.
I'm running at 1920x1080 and the examples are zoomed in to a 300x150 area. There's significant artifacting unfortunately because sharex is not cooperating and is taking jpgs instead of png but the effect is still visible:
https://preview.redd.it/lmlg7w7qcj351.jpg?width=300&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=57c299ab181336dc1e1c2276d7d29d6f91b8b44a
https://preview.redd.it/pz8fmy7qcj351.jpg?width=300&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=2f97b019cf39a01a92b74924324b1ed41d86e14a
Pretty awful and the text is basically invisible. Here's how it looks using the settings available in the regular nvidia control panel, AA set to Override and maxed to 8x for both AA and Transparency AA:
https://preview.redd.it/bv2h214edj351.jpg?width=300&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=aa38a0fa73771809c967df280b6a2668d50186b5
https://preview.redd.it/c4tav14edj351.jpg?width=300&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=09d88f548105e568b6ca9343f1ef6376d958dac0
Much better but still room for improvement. Even though these options are available in the stock nvidia CP I was using nvidia inspector because the settings in nvidia control panel were getting reverted after launching the game. I didn't try the read-only trick with nvidia CP so I can't say if it would work.
Here's how it looks using 8x sparse grid super sampling, also with AA set to Override and 8x AA:
https://preview.redd.it/k9tap0bsdj351.jpg?width=300&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=d0a9a4a80a7f2afcc1ee7d2bbf9bcd4a20e7925b
https://preview.redd.it/dyaqz0bsdj351.jpg?width=300&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=7bdc55bd1047d4ce9f1521a5d9e3ff7284e8de4c
That's about the best we can do. You can see the planks on the dock are basically perfect and the text is a little better.
Instructions:
If you don't have nvidia inspector I suggest getting it from github because the sites that come up when you google it usually have out-of-date versions. I didn't have to add Valorant to it, but if you need to, the exe is "VALORANT-Win64-Shipping.exe" and it's in Riot Games\VALORANT\live\ShooterGame\Binaries\Win64.
In nvidia inspector choose Valorant from the drop-down at the top then set
Antialiasing - Mode: Override any application setting. I also tried "Enhance" and the results were the same.
Antialiasing - Setting: 8xQ [8x Multisampling]
Antialiasing - Transparency Supersampling: 8x Sparse Grid Supersampling
Click Apply changes at the top. You can close the window, or for funsies, leave it open and check it after running the game to confirm the settings were not undone. That will happen if you don't finish with this last crucial step, before launching the game:
Go to C:\ProgramData\NVIDIA Corporation\Drs, select both nvdrsdb0.bin and nvdrsdb1.bin, right click and open Properties and make them both Read-only.
Nvidia is "helping" by trying to not let players manipulate some of these driver settings, so if you don't make those files read-only, you'll notice your settings get undone. This is intended as an anti-cheat measure so their intent is admirable, but...this is my pc. Don't screw with my settings.
Surprisingly you still need to keep 4x AA set in-game, which you can easily confirm since the setting appears to apply instantly. Admittedly I haven't tested extensively in actual matches to see if there's a big FPS hit so your mileage may vary. Also they might get more aggressive and make these kind of driver settings ineffective in the future.
submitted by ThisFreakinGuyHere to VALORANT [link] [comments]

My idea for a world simulation game that'll probably never get made.

This game is complex, layered, and probably too much bite to ever be fully realized. It has too much dream and not enough practicality. Ambitious and impractical.
Let me explain the idea though. Picture in your mind, a game that looks and feels like Civilization 5 or 6, Frostpunk, Banished, or Cities: Skylines. The UI needs to be smooth and embracing, nothing worse than an overloaded UI acting making it difficult to bring people in.
I was watching the trailer for Dying Light 2 and they mentioned the choices and actions of the player will affect the games progression. Totalitarian or Democratic government later in the game. I liked that, but these games always promise this and it never delivers. Mass Effect, Infamous, Fable, etc...
We need a game where you can build your Civilization through the ages, focusing your industry and your people down a path of your choosing. As their leader, but not a static leader. I'll get to that soon. Think of Civilization and the technological progression trees you go through throughout the game that slowly changes your cities from huts, to stone walls, to jets and nukes. You can chose your government type in these games and it gives you some advantages versus others. Better military or better trade. Options, but no real choices in the long game. Imagine for a moment focusing Your World on a path of fascism or socialism, capitalism or communism and seeing gradual changes affect your world. From the architecture to the people and the surrounding nation's.
What happens when your little experiment into capitalism turns sour? You've gone too far with the free market and destroyed your middle class and now you have economic depression and talks of revolution. You've been ousted and replaced. You're done and that leader is gone, but Your World lives on. You rebuild after choosing a new leader and you get again but with the history of your old world lingering in the background.
You like going to war? Your World remembers and you lose support later in the game.
I said this was ambitious.
How do you account for so many details? When does citizenry unhappiness mean revolution. How can we make binary choices such as; raise taxes or go to war; fund education or ban immigrants, feel like they can make drastic or monumental changes in the game?
You have a playground as big as Your World generates. You want to live on a planet the size of the moon or a world as big as Mars? That's easy, but imagine being the leader of your nation you built, or if you've suffered through some coups the nation you rebuilt, and working with a Congress while battling a foreign military. This is the ambitious part I feel. Your Congress needs to be procedurally generated AI NPCs that can make meaningful choices in line with their position. The opposition party in Your World should attack your policies in the press and undermine support for your cause, but until the level of unhappiness or other prerequisites are met, they can't engage in mutinous actions.
These AI characters cannot be voiced because we can't account for all the actions that can take place or the opinions of the opposing party for the actions you took. So we're left with narrative gameplay similar, I hope, to Frostpunk or Civilization.
The closest games out now are Tropico and Democracy 3, and those two barely scratch the surface of what I want.
submitted by Zombi_Sagan to gaming [link] [comments]

Why Am I Not Surpised

Trigger Warning: brief mentions of CSA, in depth mentions of self harm and self harm triggers, brief mentions of police brutality
I’m tired and fed up
Some of you may be familiar with u/nonstop2nowhere posts about Shame Nun. SN is my maternal grandmother, and she is the woman who raised me. My relationship with her has been strained for a long time, but it reached its worse point when I found out the truth about the way she handled my health and me being sexually abused as a child. And the fact that she lied to me about the whole thing. My whole life if any of it came up it would either be ignored (her favorite way to “keep me from being upset” (ie: having meltdowns) is to just stare silently at me when I say something she doesn’t want to talk about) or be told that no one in my family knew what was going on or knew how to handle it. And for most of my life I accepted that. Then I read some of my mother’s posts, and talked with her about things, and realized that was a lie. They knew full well what was happening and what the best options to handle it were. I have been gaslighted so much, and I have memory problems due to mental health issues, to the point that I often times don’t even know if memories I have are things I made up or not. Clear cut conversations I can actually remember having (which is a rare thing for me, for about 18 years all I remember are little bits and pieces), I now have to question if I made up. I am already bad at knowing if my emotional responses to situations are acceptable because I am autistic, but I was raised as if I were allistic. I genuinely don’t know if when I feel an emotional response to something I am over reacting or not. I often have to ask my mother or boyfriend if the response I am having is too much, if I’m being a bad person for feeling that way, etc. So conversations with SN are a nightmare. The few memories I have that I can rely on suddenly seem like me overreacting, my emotions suddenly make me an embarrassment to them. Well, because of all of this, my relationship with my grandparents went on hold for this last year. I had a point where I wanted to try and fix it. I wanted to try and talk with them about things, and explain that I have been avoiding them, because I am afraid to confront them. They financially support me, if I am cut off from them I will be absolutely screwed. So I’ve just been keeping my head down and trying not to rock the boat. Until these past few weeks. I have been preparing to talk with them about everything. How I know they lied to me, how I’ve been afraid of the possibility of being cut off, etc. I don’t care anymore. I told them I was gonna try to come to their house more often, and literally my second visit, they pulled some serious crap.
I’m going to preface this by saying I suffer from an anxiety disorder, a depressive disorder, and most likely a dissociative disorder. I dissociate often, before I would dissociate between two and five times a week, if the episode didn’t last longer than a week. With medication for depression and some neurological issues that mirrored the episodes that number is down to about once a week, usually not lasting more than a day. I also struggle with hyper-empathy, likely linked to me being autistic. For years of my life if I even heard about a friend getting something like a papercut or a cold I would completely shut down and either have a meltdown, or go into a dissociative episode. In school when we learned about genocides or terrorist attacks I would have panic attacks and fall into a loop of self loathing. I had done nothing in life to deserve not to suffer. I should be suffering more than other people because I did nothing to earn not to. Things like that, that eventually led me to start cutting. It was never handled well by my grandparents. I have a vague memory of one time my grandfather walked in on me talking with SN (once upon a time, when I trusted her) about how I felt like I should starve myself, because there were people in the world and in the past who didn’t get food, and I hadn’t earned it. Well, ever the lovely person, my grandfather butted in with, and this is word for word, “I bet the starving children in Africa feel sooooo sorry for you.” So, I’ve always known my grandpa didn’t care much about my mental health. SN laughed with that “joke”. Well, another thing that leads to me struggling with self harming ideation (I’ve been clean about 4 years, I believe), are things like the race riots. Seeing about racial violence, mass rioting, police brutality, etc. has triggered multiple dissociative episodes for me, and led me to cut on more than one occasion because I feel worthless. I should be able to help stop it, but I can’t. I know my response to all of these things is stupid and selfish, but honestly I have tried for about a decade and those thoughts won’t leave. My best way to keep myself from breaking down is to just avoid things.
Unfortunately, my grandparents (specifically my grandpa) have very strong feelings about these things. Often times racist feelings about these things. They don’t believe in police brutality, SN has literally said “lynching was never a thing”. Yeah. It’s wild. So, I was staying at their house for two nights before I went back to my apartment a few hours away. Like I said, I was making an effort to spend more time with them. Well, I wake up on my last morning there and hear my grandpa talking loudly (I could clearly hear him as if he were in my room. The way the vents and ducts are set up there I can usually hear all conversations from the living room, kitchen, and their room in my room) about one of the killings. I laid in my room and tried not to listen and tried to think of other things for an hour and a half, before finally I decided a) I needed to get up and have food and take my meds, and b) I wanted to ask them to not talk about that while I was there. I’ve told them before that I can hear things in those rooms in my room even with the door closed. I have told them more than once. Each time they act like it’s a new discovery.
So I went into the kitchen and started asking if they could not talk about that, and explained how that type of thing affects my mental health. I broke down crying, I didn’t mean to, but at that point I had been trying to keep my cool for an hour and a half, and anyone else who is autistic will understand how taxing that can be on emotional regulation.
While I was crying and starting to have a panic attack my grandpa simply said “Now, (deadname), I don’t think it’s fair for you to edit what I get to say in my own house”. Again, I was starting to have a panic attack when he said that. They got up and made a big show of “Well if it bothers you so bad we’ll leave”. To their room. I tried to tell them that I can hear them talk from their room in my room. They didn’t hear me. So I didn’t want to go back to my room, I thought they were going to continue this hour and a half long conversation (like they said they were going to), so I went to the dining room to have some yogurt and try to calm down. I was shaking, having trouble breathing, and crying. Then their cleaning lady got there. I do not like people, even my own family, to see me cry. So I definitely didn’t want her to see. I thought they were still having their conversation that I would hear in my room, so I went down a hallway at the far end of the house that leads to a breeze way and just sat there on the floor and finished my breakdown. I managed to reign back in from a full blown panic attack, but I sat there crying and shaking for about ten minutes before SN texted to ask where I was. I shouldn’t have told her. She wanted to “fix” things.
She’s bad about not respecting my boundaries when I am upset. Specifically, she has tried to physically restrain me more than once during panic attacks or melt downs. So she has lost the privilege to hug me or touch me in any way when I am upset. First thing she did was come in for a hug, and I jerked away, and she tried to say that’s one reason she left me in the kitchen, she knew I would do that. Honestly, if she had talked to me in the kitchen, I might have accepted comfort. But not after she walked away while I was on the verge of a panic attack.
She kept trying to say my grandpa’s words were fair and they shouldn’t have been hurtful, and they didn’t finish their conversation so I shouldn’t make a big deal out of it. Well, they left the room with a big show about finishing the conversation. So sorry, SN, but I had no way to know they wouldn’t. She kept going back to how I was making a big deal out of this, it was a perfectly reasonable thing to say, and they did what I had asked.
Now, admittedly I did say one thing that was a low blow. Notice, I said my grandpa deadnamed me when he said that. I came out to them as non-binary with a new name a few weeks ago. Over the two days I was at their house I was deadnamed at least 40 times. They used my proper name once each, and did not use the proper pronouns once. I understand it takes getting used to. I tolerate people slipping up, but that was beyond slipping up. That was not trying. I told SN that if my grandpa was going to be that disrespectful (as in what he had said, not the deadnaming thing) then he could use my real name. She told me “my real name is what’s on my birth certificate.” Well, it will be sooner, now.
After everything cooled down and she did a SN apology (I’m sorry you feel that way, I’m sorry your feelings got hurt, etc.) I told her that I would probably avoid their house for awhile after this. And she seemed incredibly taken aback. But yes, her actions will have consequences. For once in her life, I will make her live with the consequences.
I just feel stupid, that I was planning to give them a chance.
submitted by spidertippytaps to JUSTNOFAMILY [link] [comments]

Thumbs up for Ethno-national Tribalism

(!) Caution: I'm showing a commenter I like (Steve Turley), but these two features are contrary to my way of thinking. These are seeds for the discussion, truly the Althing.
It's a Trending Thing! Defend sovereignty of individuals and tribes, not nation-states, but muck the Dems. America’s EXURBS are PREPARING for CIVIL WAR and Here’s What it Could Look Like! 10 min
Home of the hateful, fearful, heavily armed (D Kilcullen Jun.10)
The Logic of Violence in Civil War Stathis Kalyvas
Balkanization is good (Walker 2003), it's a form of segregation, (good), breakdown of nations (good), and splitting-up supremacy of ideology (GOOD). Civic Nationalism is Supremacy. For clarity, Trump's movement is great, Dem's idiocy is Communist sheet.
Some respect for Indigenes after centuries of repression Supreme Court BALKANIZES America as Half of Oklahoma Becomes an Ethno-Tribal State!
Turley is framing this issue as a binary option, but that ain't necessarily so. IF federal government returned to the original Constitution, all would be well as the mucking Feds would get their hooky noses out of local affairs, let the states settle up in campitalist fashion.
US militia group '3 Percenters' preparing for civil war Jul.4 | RT
edits Jul.13 Is America Heading For Civil War? Of Course It Is… Jul.7 Major Tax Increases Are About To Slam America As Cities & States Want You To Pay For COVID Fallout Jul.10
https://howlinginfinite.com/2020/06/
submitted by acloudrift to AlternativeHypothesis [link] [comments]

Medicare and Property taxes destroy the middle class.

The middle and upper middle class, along with small business owners carry the majority of tax burden for medicare. Meanwhile the scam that is medicare siphons all of that money away into investment firms and retirement accounts. It's a clear generational conflict where the elderly have voted for benefits for themselves at the cost of everyone else. But even more than that, the money doesn't actually reach people and is lost into medical markups by hospitals and pharmaceutical firms.
Property taxes disproportionately affect the upper middle class and middle class while they don't even take up 1/3 of the money earned.
Both of these are bullshit gimme handout politics that only serve to pay their way into insider contractor scams and investment portfolios, while voted in by geriatrics and 18 year olds who want to be taken care of but carry no income. In reality they're destroying the middle class and the working age generations, starving them of opportunity in life and in political representation. Funny how Japan and the US are hyper successful economically, but the middle class is still overworked and can barely raise 2 kids if any. Funny how both of them have huge suicide rates in 40-50 year old males. Funny how both have little to no political options because the politics are dominated by either geriatrics and 18 year old who have no idea how ineffective government programs are and force us into a binary of pay for free everything or just destroy all support systems (except medicare).
I'm all for a strong support system for those down and out, but these handout politics are bullshit and don't help the poor either. They all go into contractor schemes that charge 300% markups because some geriatric has a friend in politics. Then siphoned away while "construction" takes 2 months to fix a 1/4 of a mile of road and a vitamin pill costs $500.
The middle class is at fault too. They refuse to vote in their own self interest and tend to vote for more handouts to other subgroups because it's "moral" lmao.
submitted by gkura to unpopularopinion [link] [comments]

If you think billionaires (OR ANYONE) knows where the market is heading

For weeks I've been hearing the same thing from friends as well as here in this sub:
People who know about stocks can get really rich now. The billionaires know where the market is heading
No they can't. If ANYONE with $1200 cash on their hands knew, they'd be the richest person alive within 28 trades - within hours.
Let's say someone was fully confident that he knows. He would put $1000 on binary options (either double your entry or lose everything) and get $2000 in return. He'd do it again to get $4000. Fast forward being right another 26 times and with gains of $268,435,456,000 they would be the richest person alive. You could do that in a single day.
Of course this thought experiment is a simulation that doesn't account for fees, risk-assessment (you'd probably save some on each trade so a loss doesn't result in a total loss) and the fact that no bank on the planet would want to play with billion dollar options (I guess). But it demonstrates how you shouldn't trust any analyst or advisor that doesn't share their 8 figures tax return forms after they've been in the market for a few years. Of course these people have a general idea of what is happening on the market but no one knows how the market reacts - the latter of which is what matters.
submitted by Reiszecke to StockMarket [link] [comments]

Today's CK3 Q&A with the developers. Feb, 27.

A few interesting answers:
Q: How many different pets are currently planned to be in the game?
A: cats and dogs, depending on how lonely you get in prison you can get a lot more, a pet rock for example
Q: will I be able to seduce the Pope?
A: Yes, and there's a special event for it
Q: are non-crusade 'Great Holy Wars' (if that's still the name for other religions) also modeled on the Holy Fury crusade system?
A: Yes.
Q: Do you have a funny bug encountered while developing the Lifestyles and Perk trees to share?
A: (So I'm not one of the people working on it, but) My favorite tale was that nudists could get events about how much to spend on updating their wardrobe. Emperor's new clothes, indeed.
___
Q: Will it be more simple than CK2?
A: no
Q: will there be single barony city states only beholdand to the Emperor?
A: Baronies are always held either by the count, or a baron under the count. So only barons in counties the emperor hold will be beholden directly to the emperor.
Q: How varied are the Romance / Elope / Seduce events? They were a little repetitive in CK2, do they vary more in CK3?
A: The events are very varied between the different schemes. I also like to think that the internal variety is quite significant. You'll definitely feel the difference depending on who you're romancing or seducing!
Q: Hi! Will the tribal goverment that used to be nomadic in ck2 have any difference from other tribals? will the game represent some difference between them?
A: Nomads will not exist on release; realms that were nomadic in CK2 will be tribal.
Q: Will there be a way for modders to create fortresses that cannot be passed without taking them first?
A: That is not planned.
Q: With the livestyles conveying huge boni to the character how viable will we be to interact with mechanics outside of the current chosen lifestyle
A: You'll still be able to interact efficiently with any system that isn't specifically unlocked by the lifestyle (such as Absolute Control or Befriend). It helps a lot to have the lifestyle, though!
Q: Will more lifestyles be able to be created with mods?
A: It is very easy to mod in more lifestyles, focuses, and trees.
Q: Will the game speed options be similar to CkII's?
A: Yes, speed ranges from 1 to 5. These roughly match the CK2 speeds.
Q: Will you give Harold Godwinson the right amount of troops this time so that he doesn't get stomped William or Hardrada?
A: I hope we've got it right so there's a real competition! He's still fighting an uphill battle facing off two powerful invaders at once, though
Q: whats the feature you are most excited about that isnt in CK2
A: The lifestyle system is my personal favorite.
Q: Is the Romance scheme available for same-sex targets with the right orientation?
A: Yes, you can use romantic schemes on people whose orientation matches your gender.
Q: You mentioned one ability which would notify you when your ruler is one year away from death. Does this mean that there will be a hardcoded lifespan (with the exception of illness, assassination, battlefield accidents, etc)? How will this work?
A: no it’s not a hard coded life span, it’s still random but the alert just is us being sneaky and delaying the outcome of death instead of having hard coded timings
Q: With the Learning Lifestyle with a Medicine Focus can you discover herb based contraceptives, (spermicide) to have lovers with a lower chance of bastards?
A: We have something similar to that, but it's not specifically tied to the Medicine Focus
Q: Hi, CK3 devs! I was wondering: will different cultures or regions tend to have different troop compositions, or will it only be dependent on buildings and such?
A: Some men at arms are cultural, and the AI will tend to have more of those.
Q: Will AI focuses be chosen at random or will for example, an AI character in a relatively peaceful part of the world be less likely to chose martial focus while characters in wealthy parts will be more likely to chose stewardship?
A: AI's will choose focuses based on their education and personality, less so based on their region.
Q: Will there be any minigames?
A: no
Q: You guys are awesome, thanks for making this game :slight_smile:
A: Well thank you. You'll all be fantastic human beings if you pick up and play it.
Q: Last chat session, it was mentioned that everywhere on the map was playable on release, but also that merchant republics would not be playable on release. Does these two statements contradict each-other, or will you be able to play as feudal Venice?
A: The statement about "everywhere" was playable is a bit misleading in that manner. It's supposed to mean there are no regional restrictions based on religion like at the release of CK2. However republics will not be playable in CK3 at release (in vanilla).
Q: Do the Lifestyle focuses generally play out the same way for every character ala. CK2? As in, you get a largely similar series of events every time and it ends with a trait? Or will you have a significantly different experience between characters even following the same lifestyle tree?
A: The traits are unlocked by the perk trees themselves, rather than events. That also means you don't have the semi-linear progress Lifestyle events had in CK2. Instead there's a huge pool of possible events for all Lifestyles
Q: what playable religions will we get at launch with no expansions?
A: all of them
Q: Will there be any new playable government types?
A: We will talk about government types in a dev diary next month most likely.
Q: is ck3 gonna have a different system for traveling over (neutral) land? Crossing borders etc
A: That is not planned
Q: Is King Jadwiga of Poland (1373-1399) in the game? As a female king she's pretty unique so it'd be fun to play as her
A: There's no start date that late.
Q: There will be any kind of Naval Battles?
A: not for release, maybe one day who knows
Q: if you reach age like 60 or 70, how many perk and tree you complete inside the lyfestyle?
A: A single tree generally takes a few decades, so at this point you'll likely have finished about two trees
Q: what made you pick a giant eyeball to represent Martial - Authority?
A: :eye:
Q: How is vassal interaction with the liege compared to CK2? Is there still a favor system and with laws and council power?
A: The favor system will be replaced by the more involved hooks system. There will be laws that govern your vassals and succession laws.
Q: Will the Learning focus trees have some impact on your ability to create custom reformations/heresies.
A: Yes, in a major way
Q: Can you elope with soulmates or does it only work on regular lovers? Basically I want to know if you can romance someone and then later elope with them.
A: Being Soulmates can have a massive impact on the success of an Elope Scheme, so it's actually a really good idea to romance them beforehand!
Q: Can you try to romance anyone you could try to seduce?
A: Yes, but the Success Chance factors will vary greatly depending on their personality
Q: Is there anything different added in terms of tyranny?
A: There's also a dread system, letting you intimidate people into subservience.
Q: how long do you expect a tree to take to complete, will children be able to begin the tree or have any impact on them?
A: A tree takes a few decades to complete. Only landed adults start on trees, though upon landing we simulate them having had a lifestyle up to that point and add perks based on that
Q: Is there any benefit to switching lifestyles or is it always best to follow one tree
A: it depends on your situation in game, you might know you’re going to war in your future plans so should switch over to the martial trees to get some perks before your grand conquest etc
Q: I've noticed in your map of Italy that a lot counties(or in the case of CK3, baronies) are missing from CK2, such as Trapani and Amalfi. To me, this leads to the map having vast open provinces, even though the popularity of mods like the Historical Immersion Project has shown that players prefer the polar opposite. I might be mistaken since this is an early version of the map and it might change upon release, but in case not. What is the main reasoning behind this reduction of provinces in Italy? Has it to do with preformance issues, or is it a way to make it more approachable to new players or something else entirely?
A: Did I fail to answer this on my previous try? Anyways, the map is in continuous development along with the game, but our key priority is to have a map that works well with out new on-map holdings
Q: Will there be multiplayer available on release?
A: yes
Q: Is it possible to nudge your children towards a specific lifestyle or is the AI completely autonomous in choosing one?
A: Your children will heavily tend to go for the Lifestyle corresponding to their education, which you have full control over as their guardian.
Q: will immoratality be a trait in ck3?
A: Immortality will be supported for modders, but will not be in the vanilla game on release.
Q: What's the youngest can you be to start a lifestyle?
A: an adult
Q: since only rulers use the lifestyles system, what happens when a ruler loses his land?
A: They will stop progressing in their lifestyle until landed again.
Q: Do lifestyles unlock decisions like how choosing the learning focus in CK2 allowed you to go on a pilgrimage, for example?
A: Some Perks unlock decisions, but there are no decisions that are unlocked by just having a lifestyle, the way some were in CK2
Q: Will having multiple lovers affect your stress level in a more significant way? In ck2 one could easily have 20 lovers or more giving a child almost every other week without it affecting your health too much, but in real life that would turn most people insane? How would a scenario like that affect the player in ck3?
A: there are events around how man lovers you have and keeping them and it effecting your stress yes
Q: Will raising tribal armies depend on Prestige like CK2 or will it depend on something else like Control, Prowess, etc?
A: The levies will have a gold upkeep. Men at arms will cost prestige. Constructing buildings will cost both gold and prestige.
Q: Just as a matter of opinion: do you feel as though it's more beneficial to focus on one or two perk trees to the exclusion of the others, or to mix and match different perks from different trees as needed?
A: That's highly situational; sometimes mixing and matching makes more sense, other times focusing on your education's matching lifestyle makes more sense. It all depends on what you're trying to do.
Q: With the AI choosing their lifestyle focus based on their education, how much control will we have in what education trait children end up with?
A: You set the education focus for your children, so you have great control
Q: Is there going to be changes to how Gavelkind works? A way to have less bordergore
A: There will be a future dev diary touching this subject.
Q: Is there going to be some kind of hunting options to compensate that it's not a Lifestyle?
A: you will be able to take a decision to go on a hunt like in CK2, it’s primarily a stress outlet for your character
Q: Does Groomed to Rule perk give the 1-3 skill points to all your children or only to the ones who are born after you take the perk? I noticed it gives more points than Sound foundations which specifically gives 1 point to all living children.
A: all of them, it applies retroactively
Q: You've added "Soulmate", does "Lover" still exist for less than licit relationships?
A: yes lover still exists as a relation as well
Q: Can a Chivalry focused man acquire their homosexual Soulmate via the tree?
A: Yes.
Q: Do the amount and/or types of Men-at-Arms regiments available to recruit change as the game goes on?
A: Yes.
Q: A filled-out skill tree seems really powerful from these dev diaries. How does the game play out when so many characters are so powerfully specialised?
A: It offers different courses of action when playing as different characters. AI characters will naturally be noticeably better at the stuff they specialise in, but that also means they by extension have weaknesses relative to other characters with other specialisations
Q: if your character lives long enough(beit through immortality or some other means), can you collect multiple lifestyle traits(such as both seducer and scholar) or are you stuck with one lifestyle trait per character at any given time?
A: You can have multiple lifestyle traits; that's common even without immortality. Immortality can be modded in, but is not in the vanilla game.
Q: Will bisexuality/asexuality/other sexual attractions be modeled in CK3 (rather than the homosexual/not homosexual binary in CK2)?
A: yes
Q: can i sacrifice people for the bloodgods?
A: Depends on what gods No comment until the religion DD
Q: What defines the unit model of a troop on map?
A: Currently the model depends on the quality of the troops and the culture.
Q: Will there be any way to see what lifestyles and perks another character has chosen, besides seeing if they have the trait from the end of a tree?
A: Yes, you can inspect anyone's lifestyle trees.
Q: how will lifestyles and educations work if you end up as a landed child? Is it relatively simple like Ck2 or are there new systems there to play with?
A: Only adults have Lifestyles. The education system is slightly different than in CK2, but not much more complicated
Q: Can/will members of your family leave your court and seek out titles on their own?
A: Yes, if they are not close in line to inherit something, they can become wanderers.
Q: Can you romance close family members? Would be nice to ... er ... forge a strong bond with my siblings/children before I put them on foreign thrones.
A: Yes
Q: To what extent can a liege influence the lifestyle trees/traits that his/her vassals pick?
A: You can't influence your vassals to take specific lifestyles
Q: since the hunting event got brought up, will that not be genderlocked this time? I always thought that was a bit at odds with many historical cultures of the time period
A: There's no gender lock on it in CK3.
Q: In CK2 many decisions are hardcoded (declare war, propose marriage). Will these systems be more transparent or moddable in CK3 (such as enabling modders to add gay marriage or change the factors for AI acceptance)?
A: these actions are a lot more in script now, some parts still have hard coded tie ins to use special interfaces etc, but all the conditions and effects can be worked with in the script and acceptance factors changed
Q: will there be tribal specific lifestyles?
A: No.
Q: Will women be attracted to homosexual men in CK3 and vice-versa? It does not make much sense for the other gender to not be attracted, unless the homosexual in question has been found out and been a public scandal about and even then, non-existent attraction from the other gender to the homosexual individual is not realistic. Is it deemed to OP to receive attraction opinion bonuses from both genders?
A: Attraction doesn't consider the sexuality of the target character, only your own. Heterosexual women will get attraction opinion increases towards homosexual men, but not the other way around
Q: Mortal Adoration perk makes lovers less likely to want to murder you and they may save you from murder attempts. Does the benefit also apply to soulmates?
A: Yes
Q: It was mentioned that only landed characters can choose/have a lifestyle progressing. How does this work with randomly generated characters? Do they only spawn with an education trait and never with a lifestyle trait?
A: Characters that become landed get their lifestyle progress simulated, and will get perks based on their age and how the AI would've selected perks.
Q: Are Merchant Republics going to be playable from start or will they come with a DLC? And is it goint to be a playable normal Republic government?
A: As said before they will not be playable at release, and we don't have any details yet about after release.
Q: With so many bonuses and perks included in the lifestyle system, how much character potential will remain in their basic stats?
A: A lot will still be determined by a character's basic stats
Q: Can we upgrade our retinues quality?
A: More info on this in future DDs
Q: can I still accidentally contract syphilis(the great pox) from putting my sausage where it doesn't belong(even though syphilis didn't exist in Europe before columbus)?
A: keep your sausage in a safe place and you’ll be fine
Q: will ck3 at launch have Holy Fury style crusades or base ck2 style crusades?
A: CK3 crusade mechanics are heavily inspired by Holy Fury crusades.
Q: How realistic is your character's seduction ability? As some random Countess, can I secude the Pope, or the Byzantine Emperor? (despite him being in love with his wife?)
A: Tier differences affect success chances for succession, so it's harder to seduce above your station. You can definitely seduce the Pope or Emperor if you're good enough, though, no matter how lowly a Countess you are. Whether that's "realistic" or not really comes down to your real-life seduction abilities, I guess
Q: were there any lifestyles that you scrapped in development? what were they and why did you scrap them?
A: not full lifestyles but the effects of some perks were changed, generally when they would’ve been to bad for performance or taken too long to implement compared to their value
Q: Will it be possible for modders to add other variables that affect character appearance and clothes (such as fantasy races)?
A: yes
Q: Will there be options for forcibly accelerating progress through the lifestyle skill tree?
A: Only by using the console.
Q: Will your lifestyle choice reset when you're locked behind bars like in ck2?
A: No.
Q: With Marriage and Children being such a huge focus in ck3 and something the ck2 players are obsessed with anyway, will the genetics see an upgrade from the "only father and mother" approach ck2 had?
A: Yes, more of this in a future DD
Q: I found to my surprise that none of the Diplomacy lifestyle trees is about dealing with vassals. Considering that in CK2, the most important effect of the diplomacy ability was to keep vassals happy, I'm rather surprised that there is no lifestyle tree dealing with that. The closest thing we have is, in fact, the Administrator tree under stewardship. Does that mean that in CK3, stewardship will determine vassal opinion, rather than diplomacy, and, if not, why is it that a stewardship lifestyle rather than a diplomacy one grant bonuses to vassal relations?
A: There's a bunch of stuff in the Diplomacy Lifestyle that helps you maintain your relationship with your vassals, such as friendships and general opinion bonuses
Q: Will it be possible to force a landed member of your family (e.g your heir) down a certain lifestyle tree?
A: No
Q: I get that ai will decide according to the education, but how will they pick between the three trees?
A: A mix of randomization and weights where it makes sense. E.G., a lustful character is significantly more likely to pick the Seduction tree.
Q: What are the lifestyle icons that weren't covered by the DDs?
A: If you're referring to the picture including the Lifestyle traits, there are some more traits in there that you get by other means than the perk trees. Mostly depending on what you spend your life doing!
Q: Do people still get released from your dungeon after you torture them by default? That's one thing that bugged me in CK2 and though there was a game rule for it, it disabled achievements.
A: No, they don't get released after torture.
Q: In CK2 there are rare cases when one realm could control holdings in another realm's county, (which would actually give you a casus beli on the rest of the county) when this happens in CK3 will it be reflected on the borders since baronies are now visible on the map?
A: In ck3 barony titles will always have their related county as their liege. No exceptions.
Q: Instead of asking a question I want to give my compliments to whoever came up with the Gallant perk tree and the Romance and Elope scheemes in particular. Eloping especially will not only be useful for gaining claims, but will also be a great tool for creating interesting narratives. Good for gameplay and RP, well done. I'm excited to play a gallant knight now when in CK2 I tended to stay safely inside my castle while others died for my ambitions.
A: thanks for the kind words! :pray:
Q: will there be blood effects after combat on portraits like in ck2?
A: No
Q: "Control" was also mentioned as, like, some kind of trait you have over a county in your realm? Does that depend on like, how much the vassal in charge obeys you, or is it more like, a new way of describing how likely the townsfolk are to revolt against you?
A: Control is a county-level attribute that influences the levies and tax the county provides. It slowly trends towards 100%, but is reduced by occupation, conquest, and some events.
Q: will there be nicknames tied to completing branches?
A: No, you'll get your lifestyle trait. There are some Lifestyle events that can lead to nicknames, though
Q: Will we see any pop culture or other references in CK3 like CK2?
A: yeah... some...
Q: Will there be different semi-random tactics that will be used during a battle like in CK2?
A: The combat system has been completely reworked for CK3.
Q: What is the highest developed province at start?
A: Constantinople, closely followed by Delhi, Rome, Cordoba, etc.
Q: Will it still be possible to take prisoners as consorts (assuming your religion/government allows those)?
A: yes
Q: Are you able to seduce your wife/husband with seduction?
A: Yes, you can make them your lover or soulmate.
Q: Are there certain lifestyle events you will only get if you are of a certain culture: for example: can choosing the seduction tree have consequences for Christians that it won't for Pagans?
A: It's heavily dependent on your Faith's view on Adultery. If it's not a crime, then the events have different outcomes, for example.
Q: Since family is becoming a bit more involved can you (as head of the family) get family members too do certain things. Like marrying someone your want or declaring war on specified targets etc?
A: Not marrying someone specific (unless you're responsible for them), but there are numerous new ways of interacting with your house members if you're the house head
Q: Can new, unlanded characters spawn in the world with a lifestyle trait?
A: Yes, and wandering characters can accrue them
Q: With there being fewer courtiers then in ck2, will there also be fewer possible spouses to choose from? (I want my genius spouse though! :smile: )
A: there are definitely still a lot of character, just less directly at court and more as guests and wanderers around the map
Q: When you have 2 sons, one is a genius and one is an imbicile. Will you be able to murder one of them so you can choose your heir? Or are we unable to kill our own children like in Ck2?
A: certain traits may allow you to plot to dispose of your children
Q: Will there be any way to disown children, without resorting to murder?
A: Yes, there's a Dynasty Head interaction to Disinherit members of your dynasty
Q: what is the most shockingly immoral thing the game has 'encouraged' you do while playtesting?
A: Just yesterday I wrote up a bug that had the reproduction steps "Murder your child son and heir. Then murder your other child son." That's just the most recent thing, though
Q: Will we be able to customize the outfit,hairstyle, etc. of our characters mid playthrough?
A: Yes
Q: will it be possible for us to adopt kids/orphaned child courtiers if our characters are childless? The adoptee would then have to gain legitimacy on their own once their new parents pass, or something along those lines? that could be pretty cool, although I'm not sure if it is historically accurate.
A: There are no adoption mechanics.
Q: Do we get any hints as to what the new religions in the game will be or not until a later dev diary?
A: Not until later. Be patient! :wink:
Q: Followup question: Will it be possible to force unlanded prisoners into marriage? In CK2 religions with consorts could already do that in two steps (take prisoner as consort, marry consort), so this would just level the playing field between religions.
A: you can recruit prisoners, if they accept, and then once they are your courtier you can marry them
Q: Will raised levies require only gold for support or shall there be any kind of supply mechanic? Will besiegers starve due to lack of food for instance?
A: We do have some supply mechanics.
Q: will there be event chains similar to the robin hood one in ck2? will they have special interactions based on your current branch/tree?
A: there are longer event chains in the game, but they are not going to necessarily tie into your lifestyle though
Q: will yazidi finally be seperate from the muslim religion group?
A: Yes it will! Hopefully we can explain more after the religion DD
Q: It seems as if the Stewardship - Duty lifestyle bleeds over quite heavily into Diplomacy. Is this sort of crossover intended?
A: Yes, there being a bit of overlap between lifestyle is intentional; see for instance the romance options in Chivalry, while Seduction still exists.
Q: Will the level of stress affect ai behavioudecisions?
A: sometimes yes, depends on what they’re trying to do
Q: Do any lifestyles interact / conflict with each other? For example if I choose a more pious lifestyle along with one focused on torture / dread?
A: you can pursue both if you choose to
Q: Modders can put their own (maybe non-human) 3D characters into the game switching the originals? They can make changes on the looks of the original models by hand and not just facial hair but the complete face?
A: yes portraits are fully moddable
Q: The diplomacy/alliance system will be the same as CK2?
A: It's similar to CK2.
Q: Will there be unique clothing or appearances for certain important historical characters?
A: We will assign specific appearance to some important historical characters. But they will generally use assets that other characters could also use.
Q: What effects the likelihood that your character will be targeted for seduction by others? Will there be ways for you to manipulate or entice favours your lovers, especially if they are powerful rulers? Will your lovers be able to manipulate you in-turn?
A: There will be some ways, yes, but you'll have to wait and see exactly how
Q: What area of the game are you most excited to show off or proud of?
A: that varies a lot per developer! So the cop out answer is all of it depending on who you ask :wink:
Q: In the game there is a perk that allows the formation of an Alliance without marriage is there a away too receive more than one?
A: Yes, for example there are alliances formed by event outcomes.
submitted by Agamidae to CrusaderKings [link] [comments]

1500-2000 CAD video and audio editing PC [first build]

What will you be doing with this PC? Be as specific as possible, and include specific games or programs you will be using.
What is your maximum budget before rebates/shipping/taxes?
When do you plan on building/buying the PC? Note: beyond a week or two from today means any build you receive will be out of date when you want to buy.
  • would like machine now
  • willing to wait up to a month for completion of research, shopping and shipping
  • would appreciate advice about looming release dates which would be beneficial to wait for; but bear in mind that Linux compatibility is a must, and cutting-edge-ness can work against that (lack of support or drivers)
What, exactly, do you need included in the budget? (ToweOS/monitokeyboard/mouse/etc)
  • CPU
  • motherboard, with Ethernet
  • RAM
  • small SSD
  • HDD: at least 2 TB, good balance between GB/$ and reliability
  • modest video card (low- to mid-end price)
  • budget case, but am okay to spend moderately for quality or longevity (e.g. better air flow)
  • mid-range power supply
No need for:
  • monitor
  • Windows OS
  • cooling accessories beyond 50 CAD unless there would be significant benefit relative to my stated use cases, or part doesn't come with stock cooling
  • wireless networking, though I guess it would be good to be able to stick in a wireless card in the future
  • keyboard, mouse, headphones, speakers
  • optical drive
  • card reader
Which country (and state/province) will you be purchasing the parts in? If you're in US, do you have access to a Microcenter location?
  • shipping to Canada
  • am okay to receive parts from anywhere in the world, but do not want to risk buying from disreputable sellers (risking problems with packaging, shipping, defective products, or outright fraud); and do not want ridiculous shipping times like over 2 months
  • am willing to pay 10% more to avoid disreputable sellers
  • strongly prefer ordering online (considering current COVID situation, it may be the only option anyway)
  • prefer buying from amazon.ca, or any other a single online vendor; willing to consider splitting shopping between multiple vendors to save 33% or more on any part; am okay to pay a bit more for the convenience of ordering from single online vendor
If reusing any parts (including monitor(s)/keyboard/mouse/etc), what parts will you be reusing? Brands and models are appreciated.
  • keyboard (USB or PS/2)
  • mouse: Roccat Kova
  • monitor 1: Samsung SyncMaster T240HD (HDMI and DVI connections)
  • monitor 2: Samsung SyncMaster TA550 (HDMI)
  • audio through standard 1/8" jack (can use 1/4" too)
Will you be overclocking? If yes, are you interested in overclocking right away, or down the line? CPU and/or GPU?
  • no desire to experiment with overclocking or similar hardware tweaks unless they're dead easy, require no extra tools or equipment (soldering iron, glue, paste), and have very little risk of damaging parts
Are there any specific features or items you want/need in the build? (ex: SSD, large amount of storage or a RAID setup, CUDA or OpenCL support, etc)
  • Linux compatibility/support of all components is an absolute must
  • strongly prefer not needing binary blobs for device drivers, but can reluctantly accept that; am willing to pay a bit more to choose between comparable parts to get open-source drivers
  • would like to keep costs down by making the SSD small, using it only for OS and executables, and whatever is frequently accessed -- I'm thinking 256 GB is enough. If 128 GB could save me more than 40 CAD, I could live with that, maybe?
  • at least 12 GB RAM, but see Extra Info, below
  • strongly prefer to have open RAM slots available to increase RAM in future
  • would like multi-monitor support, but can live without if there's a good reason, like saving more than 100 CAD
Do you have any specific case preferences (Size like ITX/microATX/mid-towefull-tower, styles, colors, window or not, LED lighting, etc), or a particular color theme preference for the components?
  • case size and form factor of parts don't matter to me beyond wanting to save money by choosing cheaper sizes and form factors
  • don't care too much about style, but wouldn't mind spending up to 50 CAD more to choose a stylish case over an ugly budget case
  • prefer black and darker colours
  • would take any colour or style if it would save 30 CAD or more on any given part with comparable specs
Do you need a copy of Windows included in the budget? If you do need one included, do you have a preference?
  • No Windows needed (or wanted!)
Extra info or particulars:
This is my first build. I have been using prebuilt PCs up to this point. My current PC has lasted me some 7 or 8 years, and it has specs like this: Intel i7 870, 12 GB RAM (started with 8 GB), 1 TB disk (started with 500 GB), Radeon HD 5770 (started with onboard Intel graphics). As you can see, I've been able to get by with old hardware for quite some time. I am hoping to have my new system last at least 5 years with next to no upgrades. If anything, I'd just add more storage and more RAM as my needs grow. So I am looking to buy parts closer to the "current or new" end of the spectrum than the "cheap but old" end. If future-proofing or infrequent PC upgrading (every 6-8 years) is not a good idea, I'm open to hearing why.
I'm looking to get a new system primarily to address these needs:
  • faster processing (rendering) of video editing
  • video editing: be able to preview edits with effects turned on instead of off (because the system can't keep up and the preview buffers or is choppy)
  • lower audio latency enough to be able to play and record MIDI live (8ms or better, ideally 5ms or less)
  • faster compilation (I'm running a from-source distro, Gentoo)
  • comfortably edit large, high-res images in GIMP
  • reduce or eliminate swap thrashing (due to filling RAM) -- between Chromium (Chrome), GIMP, kdenlive and ardour, I hit my RAM ceiling regularly, and am often closing tabs and apps to "make room" before opening something new
  • more storage for audio and video work (I realize that's a bit irrespective of the system, since external storage is affordable and readily available)
  • maybe I'll begin gaming on PC
Here is a build I cobbled together based on what I've researched so far:
PCPartPicker Part List
Type Item Price
CPU AMD Ryzen 7 3700X 3.6 GHz 8-Core Processor $480.19 @ Amazon Canada
Motherboard Gigabyte X570 AORUS ELITE ATX AM4 Motherboard $359.99 @ Amazon Canada
Memory G.Skill Ripjaws V Series 32 GB (2 x 16 GB) DDR4-3200 Memory $26