Bitcoin: Questions, Answers, and Analysis of Legal Issues

Financial Modeling for Cryptocurrencies: The spreadsheet that got me my first 1,000% gain

TL;DR: I created a spreadsheet that automates pulling trending cryptocurrencies, recent tweets, and bullish/bearish sentiment into Google Sheets. You can find it here:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1QtxaDWCoXkIqjPVVkU8DNsx8GBaBd180COwn1CIasa8/copy
I know some crypto users prefer to work in spreadsheets (including myself) so I created a spreadsheet that looks at trending symbols and estimates bullish/bearish sentiment. I never had the time to develop software engineering skills, but the recent launch of a few add-ins has allowed regular joes like myself to harness the power of APIs.

The Beauty of Sentiment Trading

According to Google Trends, the word “sentiment analysis” has been gaining steady traction over the past 5 years.
Sentiment refers to the attitude expressed by an individual regarding a certain topic. This is especially relevant in trading, where so much of the change in price is dictated by emotions:
When it is applied to trading, sentiment can be used (with great potential windfall) as a directional signal to figure out whether you should enter a crypto position within your portfolio.
A way you can utilize sentiment when trading crypto, is to measure the positivity or negativity of a tweet. If recent tweets have been overwhelmingly bullish (aka, the person expects the crypto rise) and movement is beginning to happen in the currency, chances are good that the trend will continue.
Luckily for you, StockTwits already does this with around 225 different cryptocurrencies. And if you can combine the sentiment with trending cryptocurrencies, you can catch the wave right as it forms.

Services Used:

  1. Google Sheets
  2. Spreadstreet Google Sheets Add-in
  3. StockTwits
  4. CoinMarketCap API
Full disclosure: The google sheets add-in is a 14-day free trial, and $15 per month after. However, no one should be refused access on the basis of money (especially true for students and less fortunate). Send me a message, and I will make sure you are not left in the dark.

A note on security

Users have expressed hesitation about running a google sheets add-in on their main computer, so I will attempt to ease those concerns:

What it pulls:

AN OVERVIEW OF THE SECTIONS

The Dashboard
Changing the timeframe
Changing the cryptocurrency
Instructions Tab
Summary Tab

How to use the spreadsheet to spot trending cryptocurrencies

You will spend most of your time in the “Analysis” tab, where the trending cryptocurrencies reside.
I am almost always looking at the “By Hour” timeframe, as the “By Day” and “By Week” is usually a missed opportunity…however, those time frames can still be very useful (albeit, for different reasons).
You want to ride the wave on a cryptocurrency under one or both of the following conditions:
  1. The tweets are very recent, preferably within the last hour
  2. Overwhelmingly Bullish sentiment
A Great Example
A Bad Example

Getting the spreadsheet to work for you

1. Install the Spreadstreet add-in for Google Sheets
2. Get sheet ready for use with the add-in
3. After logging into the add-in, refresh the sheet

Troubleshooting

  1. Important Open the template, click the menu Add-ons / Spreadstreet / Help / View in store, and then click Manage and in the dropdown menu click “Use in this document.”
  2. A reload of the entire worksheet fixes quite a few problems.
  3. Deleting and re-pasting the formula in A1 of the “Data” tab fixes things as well.
  4. If all else fails, drop me a message
  5. The “TIMEFRAME” cell in the Analysis tab (B3) refreshes the pull. Change the results for new data.
Some trending coins are not pulling correctly…what’s going on?
StockTwits has a list of ~225 coins it currently supports. See the “TweetInfo” tab for the full list.
I have tried logging in, activating the template with “Use in this document” and refreshed the sheet…still nothing.
Head to the “Data” tab. Delete the formula in cell A1, and repaste the following: =SS(“tickers-coinmarketcap”, headers, “0”, Currency)
Hoping this is something that is useful to everyone, and I am more than happy to help peeps setup the sheet so they can use it. Just send me a message on here.
Original Medium article can be found here: https://medium.com/@spreadstreet/financial-modeling-for-cryptocurrencies-the-spreadsheet-that-got-me-my-first-1-000-gain-f4d0d1a6e5ed

RESOURCES

Download the spreadsheet: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1QtxaDWCoXkIqjPVVkU8DNsx8GBaBd180COwn1CIasa8/copy
Download the add-in: https://spreadstreet.io/tools/google-sheets-add-in
Help: https://spreadstreet.io/docs
First time install and login: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aLjtPR4T2bg
Bitfinex Candles endpoint help: https://spreadstreet.io/knowledge-base/bitfinex-api-candles-endpoint/

RELATED POSTS

Top 12 Cryptocurrencies Ranked by Risk-Adjusted Return
10 Statistical Price Predictions for 10 Cryptocurrencies
Bitcoin Madness: How to Simulate Bitcoin Prices in Google Sheets

ABOUT THE AUTHOR

John Young is the founder of Spreadstreet.io, former Financial Analyst for a big-ass company, and runner-up in the 6th grade spelling bee. He would have invested in Google if he knew about it...and had any money.
He is the author of the Spreadstreet blog, which has over 3 readers (not a typo). He hopes to hit 10, but honestly writing is a lot of work.
submitted by 1kexperimentdotcom to CryptoCurrency [link] [comments]

Financial Modeling for Cryptocurrencies: The spreadsheet that got me my first 1,000% gain

TL;DR: I created a spreadsheet that automates pulling trending cryptocurrencies, recent tweets, and bullish/bearish sentiment into Google Sheets. You can find it here:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1QtxaDWCoXkIqjPVVkU8DNsx8GBaBd180COwn1CIasa8/copy
I know some crypto users prefer to work in spreadsheets (including myself) so I created a spreadsheet that looks at trending symbols and estimates bullish/bearish sentiment. I never had the time to develop software engineering skills, but the recent launch of a few add-ins has allowed regular joes like myself to harness the power of APIs.

The Beauty of Sentiment Trading

According to Google Trends, the word “sentiment analysis” has been gaining steady traction over the past 5 years.
Sentiment refers to the attitude expressed by an individual regarding a certain topic. This is especially relevant in trading, where so much of the change in price is dictated by emotions:
When it is applied to trading, sentiment can be used (with great potential windfall) as a directional signal to figure out whether you should enter a crypto position within your portfolio.
A way you can utilize sentiment when trading crypto, is to measure the positivity or negativity of a tweet. If recent tweets have been overwhelmingly bullish (aka, the person expects the crypto rise) and movement is beginning to happen in the currency, chances are good that the trend will continue.
Luckily for you, StockTwits already does this with around 225 different cryptocurrencies. And if you can combine the sentiment with trending cryptocurrencies, you can catch the wave right as it forms.

Services Used:

  1. Google Sheets
  2. Spreadstreet Google Sheets Add-in
  3. StockTwits
  4. CoinMarketCap API
Full disclosure: The google sheets add-in is a 14-day free trial, and $15 per month after. However, no one should be refused access on the basis of money (especially true for students and less fortunate). Send me a message, and I will make sure you are not left in the dark.

A note on security

Users have expressed hesitation about running a google sheets add-in on their main computer, so I will attempt to ease those concerns:

What it pulls:

AN OVERVIEW OF THE SECTIONS

The Dashboard
Changing the timeframe
Changing the cryptocurrency
Instructions Tab
Summary Tab

How to use the spreadsheet to spot trending cryptocurrencies

You will spend most of your time in the “Analysis” tab, where the trending cryptocurrencies reside.
I am almost always looking at the “By Hour” timeframe, as the “By Day” and “By Week” is usually a missed opportunity…however, those time frames can still be very useful (albeit, for different reasons).
You want to ride the wave on a cryptocurrency under one or both of the following conditions:
  1. The tweets are very recent, preferably within the last hour
  2. Overwhelmingly Bullish sentiment
A Great Example
A Bad Example

Getting the spreadsheet to work for you

1. Install the Spreadstreet add-in for Google Sheets
2. Get sheet ready for use with the add-in
3. After logging into the add-in, refresh the sheet

Troubleshooting

  1. Important Open the template, click the menu Add-ons / Spreadstreet / Help / View in store, and then click Manage and in the dropdown menu click “Use in this document.”
  2. A reload of the entire worksheet fixes quite a few problems.
  3. Deleting and re-pasting the formula in A1 of the “Data” tab fixes things as well.
  4. If all else fails, drop a line to [email protected]. He will get you running in no time.
  5. The “TIMEFRAME” cell in the Analysis tab (B3) refreshes the pull. Change the results for new data.
Some trending coins are not pulling correctly…what’s going on?
StockTwits has a list of ~225 coins it currently supports. See the “TweetInfo” tab for the full list.
I have tried logging in, activating the template with “Use in this document” and refreshed the sheet…still nothing.
Head to the “Data” tab. Delete the formula in cell A1, and repaste the following: =SS(“tickers-coinmarketcap”, headers, “0”, Currency)
Hoping this is something that is useful to everyone, and I am more than happy to help peeps setup the sheet so they can use it. Just send me a message on here.
Original Medium article can be found here: https://medium.com/@spreadstreet/financial-modeling-for-cryptocurrencies-the-spreadsheet-that-got-me-my-first-1-000-gain-f4d0d1a6e5ed

RESOURCES

Download the spreadsheet: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1QtxaDWCoXkIqjPVVkU8DNsx8GBaBd180COwn1CIasa8/copy
Download the add-in: https://spreadstreet.io/tools/google-sheets-add-in
Help: https://spreadstreet.io/docs
First time install and login: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aLjtPR4T2bg
Bitfinex Candles endpoint help: https://spreadstreet.io/knowledge-base/bitfinex-api-candles-endpoint/

RELATED POSTS

Top 12 Cryptocurrencies Ranked by Risk-Adjusted Return
10 Statistical Price Predictions for 10 Cryptocurrencies
Bitcoin Madness: How to Simulate Bitcoin Prices in Google Sheets

ABOUT THE AUTHOR

John Young is the founder of Spreadstreet.io, former Financial Analyst for a big-ass company, and runner-up in the 6th grade spelling bee. He would have invested in Google if he knew about it...and had any money.
He is the author of the Spreadstreet blog, which has over 3 readers (not a typo). He hopes to hit 10, but honestly writing is a lot of work.
submitted by 1kexperimentdotcom to LitecoinMarkets [link] [comments]

10 Statistical Price Predictions for 10 Cryptocurrencies — January 2018

TL;DR: I simulated a 1-year movement of 10 top cryptocurrencies using an advanced statistical method called geometric Brownian motion, which you can find below. I also created a spreadsheet to simulate prices of ~24 different cryptocurrencies, which you can download here: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1eUIgBowJs2NyKw7kYbx5z_VeCOxsMQdNELfbngs4XnY/copy. The sheet utilizes a paid add-in, which I provide free of cost to those who are less fortunate.

THE MYSTERY OF PRICE MOVEMENT

So, you’re sitting at your computer with money to invest.
You have made some good money already in the market, but you want more.
Cryptocurrencies have reached a record $600 billion in market value after the recovery, with the inevitable $700 billion mark right around the corner.
The price movement of top currencies remains a mystery. But it doesn’t have to be.

THE PAIN OF UNCERTAINTY

Cryptocurrencies are volatile, irrational beasts.
Simple methods of forecasting grossly oveunderestimate the potential of a volatile currency.
For example, moving averages are used frequently to estimate future prices. Moving averages, however, suffer from many pitfalls that make them poor estimators of volatile markets.
Every great and successful investor has a plan. You will add one more tool to your arsenal today.

A BETTER METHOD FOR ESTIMATING CRYPTO PRICES

In my prior article about estimating the movement of Bitcoin Prices, I spoke of a method that is used frequently in the stock world to estimate prices.
This method is a Monte Carlo simulation using the geometric Brownian motion model.
I won’t cover off on the full methodology here, but essentially I am going to:
  1. Get historical daily prices for 10 top cryptocurrencies
  2. Calculate daily returns
  3. Simulate a year
  4. Simulate a year many times
By the end of the article, you will have the following:
A note on forecasting, simulations, and recommendations: Monte Carlo simulations are to be used as guidelines and tools, not as gospel. I am not offering financial or investing advice.

BITCOIN

What is Bitcoin?

You know what Bitcoin is, stop it.

One-Year Simulation

1-Year Simulation of Bitcoin Prices and Returns

One-Year Simulated 1,000 Times

1-Year Bitcoin Prices Simulated 1,000 times

Verdict

We can be 95% certain that Bitcoin prices will fall between $9,095, and $371,588 with a median of $60,837.

BITCOIN CASH

What is Bitcoin Cash?

From the Bitcoin Cash project website:
“Bitcoin Cash is peer-to-peer electronic cash for the Internet. It is fully decentralized, with no central bank and requires no trusted third parties to operate.”
Really, it was an additional currency that was created after a fork from Bitcoin core.

One-Year Simulation

1-Year Simulation of Bitcoin Cash Prices and Returns

One-Year Simulated 1,000 Times

1-Year Bitcoin Cash Prices Simulated 1,000 times

Verdict

We can be 95% certain that Bitcoin Cash prices will fall between $197, and $180,288 with a median of $4,839.

ETHEREUM

What is Ethereum?

Ethereum is a decentralized platform that runs smart contracts: applications that run exactly as programmed without any possibility of downtime, censorship, fraud or third party interference.
Ethereum has been busy recently. Multiple steps have been pushed in motion for the upcoming large change — reaching a new consensus method.
From Jordan Daniel at ethnews.com:
Ethereum’s Byzantium hard fork was only one half of a two-part process designed to transition the decentralized application platform to a new method for reaching consensus — proof-of-stake. The next hard fork, called Constantinople, was recently discussed during an Ethereum core developer meeting and could include Vitalik Buterin’s Casper update.

One-Year Simulation

1-Year Simulation of Ethereum Prices and Returns

One-Year Simulated 1,000 Times

1-Year Ethereum Prices Simulated 1,000 times

Verdict

We can be 95% certain that Ethereum prices will fall between $193, and $8,027 with a median of $1,267.

EOS

What is EOS?

EOS is a blockchain-based, decentralized operating system, designed to support commercial-scale decentralized applications by providing all of the necessary core functionality, enabling businesses to build blockchain applications in a way similar to web-based applications.

One-Year Simulation

1-Year Simulation of EOS Prices and Returns

One-Year Simulated 1,000 Times

1-Year EOS Prices Simulated 1,000 times

Verdict

We can be 95% certain that EOS prices will fall between $0.98, and $1,386 with a median of $33.

LITECOIN

What is Litecoin?

Litecoin’s claim to fame is faster transaction processing times. It uses a scrypt-based mining proof-of-work algorithm to target the regular computers and GPUs most people already have.
The ability to target regular computers and GPU’s happens to be a huge differentiator from the crowded mining population of Bitcoin.

One-Year Simulation

1-Year Simulation of Litecoin Prices and Returns

One-Year Simulated 1,000 Times

1-Year Litecoin Prices Simulated 1,000 times

Verdict

We can be 95% certain that Litecoin prices will fall between $42, and $12,241 with a median of $745.

OMISEGO

What is OmiseGO?

OmiseGO is building a couple of things:
  1. Decentralized exchange
  2. Liquidity provider mechanism
  3. Clearinghouse messaging network
  4. Asset-backed blockchain gateway
OmiseGO is not owned by any single one party. Instead, it is an open distributed network of validators which enforce behavior of all participants.
According to Blocknight:
Also, OmiseGo counts Vitalik Buterin (Ethereum), and Joseph Poon (Lightning Network Co Author) among their advisers. Joseph Poon is actually billed as author of the OmiseGo whitepaper.
Those are some pretty big names.

One-Year Simulation

1-Year Simulation of OmiseGO Prices and Returns

One-Year Simulated 1,000 Times

1-Year OmiseGO Prices Simulated 1,000 times

Verdict

We can be 95% certain that OmiseGO prices will fall between $0.62, and $185.35 with a median of $8.56.

NEO

What is NEO?

NEO (formerly known as AntShares) is a smart asset platform and the first open source public blockchain project in China. Smart assets are the combination of smart blockchain contracts and digital assets.

One-Year Simulation

1-Year Simulation of NEO Prices and Returns

One-Year Simulated 1,000 Times

1-Year NEO Prices Simulated 1,000 times

Verdict

We can be 95% certain that NEO prices will fall between $3, and $3,076 with a median of $115.

RIPPLE

What is Ripple?

Ripple is a system created for banks to enable immediate payments and lower costs.
The vision of the Ripple creators is to allow a bank transfer in a few seconds (instead of the horribly annoying 2–3 business days).
Of note, is that Ripple is a U.S. based company. From the xrphodor blog:
Ripple is a US-based company.
Why is this an important point to consider? A US-based company like Ripple is subject to some very stringent laws regarding securities trading and money transmission. These include requirements that define how Ripple might interact with crypto markets and both institutional and retail crypto traders.

One-Year Simulation

1-Year Simulation of Ripple Prices and Returns

One-Year Simulated 1,000 Times

1-Year Ripple Prices Simulated 1,000 times

Verdict

We can be 95% certain that Ripple prices will fall between $0.05, and $163 with a median of $2.71.

MONERO

What is Monero?

Monero attempts to solve privacy and fungibility issues that persist in Bitcoin.
Part of the algorithm for Monero automatically mixes transactions with previous transactions and does this by implementing ring signatures.

One-Year Simulation

1-Year Simulation of Monero Prices and Returns

One-Year Simulated 1,000 Times

1-Year Monero Prices Simulated 1,000 times

Verdict

We can be 95% certain that Monero prices will fall between $68, and $8,142 with a median of $760.

Zcash

What is Zcash?

From the Blockchainhub infographic:
Zcash is a permissionless cryptocurrency that can fully protect the privacy of transactions using zero-knowledge cryptography.

One-Year Simulation

1-Year Simulation of ZCash Prices and Returns

One-Year Simulated 1,000 Times

1-Year ZCash Prices Simulated 1,000 times

Verdict

We can be 95% certain that Zcash prices will fall between $54, and $6,259 with a median of $549.

YOUR VERY OWN FORECASTING TOOL

Since i’m so nice, I went ahead and created a forecasting tool for you to use:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1eUIgBowJs2NyKw7kYbx5z_VeCOxsMQdNELfbngs4XnY/copy

SERVICES USED:

  1. Google Sheets
  2. Spreadstreet Google Sheets Add-in
  3. StockTwits
  4. CoinMarketCap API
Full disclosure: The google sheets add-in is a 14-day free trial, and $15 per month after. However, no one should be refused access on the basis of money (especially true for students and less fortunate). Send me a message, and I will make sure you are not left in the dark.

A NOTE ON SECURITY

Users have expressed hesitation about running a google sheets add-in on their main computer, so I will attempt to ease those concerns:

WHAT IT PULLS:

GETTING THE SPREADSHEET TO WORK FOR YOU

Install the Spreadstreet add-in for Google Sheets
Get sheet ready for use with the add-in
After logging into the add-in, change the dropdown reference

TROUBLESHOOTING

  1. Important Open the template, click the menu Add-ons / Spreadstreet / Help / View in store, and then click Manage and in the dropdown menu click “Use in this document.”
  2. A reload of the entire worksheet fixes quite a few problems.
  3. Deleting and re-pasting the formula in A1 of the “Candles” tab fixes things as well.
  4. If all else fails, drop me a message
  5. The “SELECT CURRENCY” cell in the Analysis tab (B3) refreshes the pull. Change the results for new data.
When I try and change a coin, I get a #DIV/0 error
Login to the Spreadstreet add-in, and keep the window open. Try changing the dropdown again.
I have tried logging in, activating the template with “Use in this document” and refreshed the sheet…still nothing.
Head to the “Data” tab. Delete the formula in cell A1, and repaste the following: =SS(“candles-bitfinex”, ticker, “1D”, “hist”, true, “”, “”, “”, “0”)

CONCLUSION

Whether you are investing in Bitcoin, Ethereum, or SpankCoin, it is imperative to have a plan. Most notably, a worst-case scenario.
The Monte Carlo simulation is a fantastic way to get a range of prices for a cryptocurrency. And after reading this, you can see how the final values change drastically depending on what you are looking at.
I urge you to download the sheet and try your own hand at simulating different coins. The sheet is setup to pull in every single coin from CoinMarketCap.
Cheers, and happy hunting
Original article can be found here: https://medium.com/@spreadstreet/10-statistical-price-predictions-for-10-cryptocurrencies-january-2018-3dcf04bf9d9a

RELATED POSTS

Financial Modeling for Cryptocurrencies: The spreadsheet that got me my first 1,000% gain
A Super Simple Cryptocurrency Arbitrage Spreadsheet for Finding Mismatched Prices
Bitcoin Madness: How to Simulate Bitcoin Prices in Google Sheets
7 Smart Ethereum Price Prediction Methods for HODL’ers
submitted by 1kexperimentdotcom to CryptoMarkets [link] [comments]

10 Statistical Price Predictions for 10 Cryptocurrencies — January 2018

TL;DR: I simulated a 1-year movement of 10 top cryptocurrencies using an advanced statistical method called geometric Brownian motion, which you can find below. I also created a spreadsheet to simulate prices of ~24 different cryptocurrencies, which you can download here: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1eUIgBowJs2NyKw7kYbx5z_VeCOxsMQdNELfbngs4XnY/copy. The sheet utilizes a paid add-in, which I provide free of cost to those who are less fortunate.

THE MYSTERY OF PRICE MOVEMENT

So, you’re sitting at your computer with money to invest.
You have made some good money already in the market, but you want more.
Cryptocurrencies have reached a record $600 billion in market value after the recovery, with the inevitable $700 billion mark right around the corner.
The price movement of top currencies remains a mystery. But it doesn’t have to be.

THE PAIN OF UNCERTAINTY

Cryptocurrencies are volatile, irrational beasts.
Simple methods of forecasting grossly oveunderestimate the potential of a volatile currency.
For example, moving averages are used frequently to estimate future prices. Moving averages, however, suffer from many pitfalls that make them poor estimators of volatile markets.
Every great and successful investor has a plan. You will add one more tool to your arsenal today.

A BETTER METHOD FOR ESTIMATING CRYPTO PRICES

In my prior article about estimating the movement of Bitcoin Prices, I spoke of a method that is used frequently in the stock world to estimate prices.
This method is a Monte Carlo simulation using the geometric Brownian motion model.
I won’t cover off on the full methodology here, but essentially I am going to:
  1. Get historical daily prices for 10 top cryptocurrencies
  2. Calculate daily returns
  3. Simulate a year
  4. Simulate a year many times
By the end of the article, you will have the following:
A note on forecasting, simulations, and recommendations: Monte Carlo simulations are to be used as guidelines and tools, not as gospel. I am not offering financial or investing advice.

BITCOIN

What is Bitcoin?

You know what Bitcoin is, stop it.

One-Year Simulation

1-Year Simulation of Bitcoin Prices and Returns

One-Year Simulated 1,000 Times

1-Year Bitcoin Prices Simulated 1,000 times

Verdict

We can be 95% certain that Bitcoin prices will fall between $9,095, and $371,588 with a median of $60,837.

BITCOIN CASH

What is Bitcoin Cash?

From the Bitcoin Cash project website:
“Bitcoin Cash is peer-to-peer electronic cash for the Internet. It is fully decentralized, with no central bank and requires no trusted third parties to operate.”
Really, it was an additional currency that was created after a fork from Bitcoin core.

One-Year Simulation

1-Year Simulation of Bitcoin Cash Prices and Returns

One-Year Simulated 1,000 Times

1-Year Bitcoin Cash Prices Simulated 1,000 times

Verdict

We can be 95% certain that Bitcoin Cash prices will fall between $197, and $180,288 with a median of $4,839.

ETHEREUM

What is Ethereum?

Ethereum is a decentralized platform that runs smart contracts: applications that run exactly as programmed without any possibility of downtime, censorship, fraud or third party interference.
Ethereum has been busy recently. Multiple steps have been pushed in motion for the upcoming large change — reaching a new consensus method.
From Jordan Daniel at ethnews.com:
Ethereum’s Byzantium hard fork was only one half of a two-part process designed to transition the decentralized application platform to a new method for reaching consensus — proof-of-stake. The next hard fork, called Constantinople, was recently discussed during an Ethereum core developer meeting and could include Vitalik Buterin’s Casper update.

One-Year Simulation

1-Year Simulation of Ethereum Prices and Returns

One-Year Simulated 1,000 Times

1-Year Ethereum Prices Simulated 1,000 times

Verdict

We can be 95% certain that Ethereum prices will fall between $193, and $8,027 with a median of $1,267.

EOS

What is EOS?

EOS is a blockchain-based, decentralized operating system, designed to support commercial-scale decentralized applications by providing all of the necessary core functionality, enabling businesses to build blockchain applications in a way similar to web-based applications.

One-Year Simulation

1-Year Simulation of EOS Prices and Returns

One-Year Simulated 1,000 Times

1-Year EOS Prices Simulated 1,000 times

Verdict

We can be 95% certain that EOS prices will fall between $0.98, and $1,386 with a median of $33.

LITECOIN

What is Litecoin?

Litecoin’s claim to fame is faster transaction processing times. It uses a scrypt-based mining proof-of-work algorithm to target the regular computers and GPUs most people already have.
The ability to target regular computers and GPU’s happens to be a huge differentiator from the crowded mining population of Bitcoin.

One-Year Simulation

1-Year Simulation of Litecoin Prices and Returns

One-Year Simulated 1,000 Times

1-Year Litecoin Prices Simulated 1,000 times

Verdict

We can be 95% certain that Litecoin prices will fall between $42, and $12,241 with a median of $745.

OMISEGO

What is OmiseGO?

OmiseGO is building a couple of things:
  1. Decentralized exchange
  2. Liquidity provider mechanism
  3. Clearinghouse messaging network
  4. Asset-backed blockchain gateway
OmiseGO is not owned by any single one party. Instead, it is an open distributed network of validators which enforce behavior of all participants.
According to Blocknight:
Also, OmiseGo counts Vitalik Buterin (Ethereum), and Joseph Poon (Lightning Network Co Author) among their advisers. Joseph Poon is actually billed as author of the OmiseGo whitepaper.
Those are some pretty big names.

One-Year Simulation

1-Year Simulation of OmiseGO Prices and Returns

One-Year Simulated 1,000 Times

1-Year OmiseGO Prices Simulated 1,000 times

Verdict

We can be 95% certain that OmiseGO prices will fall between $0.62, and $185.35 with a median of $8.56.

NEO

What is NEO?

NEO (formerly known as AntShares) is a smart asset platform and the first open source public blockchain project in China. Smart assets are the combination of smart blockchain contracts and digital assets.

One-Year Simulation

1-Year Simulation of NEO Prices and Returns

One-Year Simulated 1,000 Times

1-Year NEO Prices Simulated 1,000 times

Verdict

We can be 95% certain that NEO prices will fall between $3, and $3,076 with a median of $115.

RIPPLE

What is Ripple?

Ripple is a system created for banks to enable immediate payments and lower costs.
The vision of the Ripple creators is to allow a bank transfer in a few seconds (instead of the horribly annoying 2–3 business days).
Of note, is that Ripple is a U.S. based company. From the xrphodor blog:
Ripple is a US-based company.
Why is this an important point to consider? A US-based company like Ripple is subject to some very stringent laws regarding securities trading and money transmission. These include requirements that define how Ripple might interact with crypto markets and both institutional and retail crypto traders.

One-Year Simulation

1-Year Simulation of Ripple Prices and Returns

One-Year Simulated 1,000 Times

1-Year Ripple Prices Simulated 1,000 times

Verdict

We can be 95% certain that Ripple prices will fall between $0.05, and $163 with a median of $2.71.

MONERO

What is Monero?

Monero attempts to solve privacy and fungibility issues that persist in Bitcoin.
Part of the algorithm for Monero automatically mixes transactions with previous transactions and does this by implementing ring signatures.

One-Year Simulation

1-Year Simulation of Monero Prices and Returns

One-Year Simulated 1,000 Times

1-Year Monero Prices Simulated 1,000 times

Verdict

We can be 95% certain that Monero prices will fall between $68, and $8,142 with a median of $760.

Zcash

What is Zcash?

From the Blockchainhub infographic:
Zcash is a permissionless cryptocurrency that can fully protect the privacy of transactions using zero-knowledge cryptography.

One-Year Simulation

1-Year Simulation of ZCash Prices and Returns

One-Year Simulated 1,000 Times

1-Year ZCash Prices Simulated 1,000 times

Verdict

We can be 95% certain that Zcash prices will fall between $54, and $6,259 with a median of $549.

YOUR VERY OWN FORECASTING TOOL

Since i’m so nice, I went ahead and created a forecasting tool for you to use:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1eUIgBowJs2NyKw7kYbx5z_VeCOxsMQdNELfbngs4XnY/copy

SERVICES USED:

  1. Google Sheets
  2. Spreadstreet Google Sheets Add-in
  3. StockTwits
  4. CoinMarketCap API
Full disclosure: The google sheets add-in is a 14-day free trial, and $15 per month after. However, no one should be refused access on the basis of money (especially true for students and less fortunate). Send me a message, and I will make sure you are not left in the dark.

A NOTE ON SECURITY

Users have expressed hesitation about running a google sheets add-in on their main computer, so I will attempt to ease those concerns:

WHAT IT PULLS:

GETTING THE SPREADSHEET TO WORK FOR YOU

Install the Spreadstreet add-in for Google Sheets
Get sheet ready for use with the add-in
After logging into the add-in, change the dropdown reference

TROUBLESHOOTING

  1. Important Open the template, click the menu Add-ons / Spreadstreet / Help / View in store, and then click Manage and in the dropdown menu click “Use in this document.”
  2. A reload of the entire worksheet fixes quite a few problems.
  3. Deleting and re-pasting the formula in A1 of the “Candles” tab fixes things as well.
  4. If all else fails, drop me a message
  5. The “SELECT CURRENCY” cell in the Analysis tab (B3) refreshes the pull. Change the results for new data.
When I try and change a coin, I get a #DIV/0 error
Login to the Spreadstreet add-in, and keep the window open. Try changing the dropdown again.
I have tried logging in, activating the template with “Use in this document” and refreshed the sheet…still nothing.
Head to the “Data” tab. Delete the formula in cell A1, and repaste the following: =SS(“candles-bitfinex”, ticker, “1D”, “hist”, true, “”, “”, “”, “0”)

CONCLUSION

Whether you are investing in Bitcoin, Ethereum, or SpankCoin, it is imperative to have a plan. Most notably, a worst-case scenario.
The Monte Carlo simulation is a fantastic way to get a range of prices for a cryptocurrency. And after reading this, you can see how the final values change drastically depending on what you are looking at.
I urge you to download the sheet and try your own hand at simulating different coins. The sheet is setup to pull in every single coin from CoinMarketCap.
Cheers, and happy hunting
Original article can be found here: https://medium.com/@spreadstreet/10-statistical-price-predictions-for-10-cryptocurrencies-january-2018-3dcf04bf9d9a

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submitted by 1kexperimentdotcom to CryptoCurrency [link] [comments]

Financial Modeling for Cryptocurrencies: The spreadsheet that got me my first 1,000% gain

TL;DR: I created a spreadsheet that automates pulling trending cryptocurrencies, recent tweets, and bullish/bearish sentiment into Google Sheets. You can find it here:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1QtxaDWCoXkIqjPVVkU8DNsx8GBaBd180COwn1CIasa8/copy
I know some crypto users prefer to work in spreadsheets (including myself) so I created a spreadsheet that looks at trending symbols and estimates bullish/bearish sentiment. I never had the time to develop software engineering skills, but the recent launch of a few add-ins has allowed regular joes like myself to harness the power of APIs.

The Beauty of Sentiment Trading

According to Google Trends, the word “sentiment analysis” has been gaining steady traction over the past 5 years.
Sentiment refers to the attitude expressed by an individual regarding a certain topic. This is especially relevant in trading, where so much of the change in price is dictated by emotions:
When it is applied to trading, sentiment can be used (with great potential windfall) as a directional signal to figure out whether you should enter a crypto position within your portfolio.
A way you can utilize sentiment when trading crypto, is to measure the positivity or negativity of a tweet. If recent tweets have been overwhelmingly bullish (aka, the person expects the crypto rise) and movement is beginning to happen in the currency, chances are good that the trend will continue.
Luckily for you, StockTwits already does this with a