7 Binary Options – The Simplest Way to Algorithm Trading

Using Deep Learning to Predict Earnings Outcomes

Using Deep Learning to Predict Earnings Outcomes
(Note: if you were following my earlier posts, I wrote a note at the end of this post explaining why I deleted old posts and what changed)
Edit: Can't reply to comments since my account is still flagged as new :\. Thank you everyone for your comments. Edit: Made another post answering questions here.
  • Test data is untouched during training 10:1:1 train:val:test.
  • Yes, I consider it "deep" learning from what I learned at my institution. I use LSTMs at one point in my pipeline, feel free to consider that deep or not.
  • I'll be making daily posts so that people can follow along.
  • Someone mentioned RL, yes I plan on trying that in the future :). This would require a really clever way to encode the current state parameters. Haven't thought about it too much yet.
  • Someone mentioned how companies beat earnings 61% anyway, so my model must be useless right? Well if you look at the confusion matrix you can see I balanced classes before training (with some noise). This means that the data had roughly 50/50 beat/miss and had a 58% test accuracy.
TLDR:
Not financial advice.
  • I created a deep learning algorithm trained on 2015-2019 data to predict whether a company will beat earning estimates.
  • Algorithm has an accuracy of 58%.
  • I need data and suggestions.
  • I’ll be making daily posts for upcoming earnings.
Greetings everyone,
I’m Bunga, an engineering PhD student at well known university. Like many of you, I developed an interest in trading because of the coronavirus. I lost a lot of money by being greedy and uninformed about how to actually trade options. With all the free time I have with my research slowing down because of the virus, I’ve decided to use what I’m good at (being a nerd, data analytics, and machine learning) to help me make trades.
One thing that stuck out to me was how people make bets on earnings reports. As a practitioner of machine learning, we LOVE binary events since the problem can be reduced to a simple binary classification problem. With that being said, I sought out to develop a machine learning algorithm to predict whether a company will beat earnings estimates.
I strongly suggest TO NOT USE THIS AS FINANCIAL ADVICE. Please, I could just be a random guy on the internet making things up, and I could have bugs in my code. Just follow along for some fun and don’t make any trades based off of this information 😊
Things other people have tried:
A few other projects have tried to do this to some extent [1,2,3], but some are not directly predicting the outcome of the earnings report or have a very small sample size of a few companies.
The data
This has been the most challenging part of the project. I’m using data for 4,000 common stocks.
Open, high, low, close, volume stock data is often free and easy to come by. I use stock data during the quarter (Jan 1 – Mar 31 stock data for Q1 for example) in a time series classifier. I also incorporate “background” data from several ETFs to give the algorithm a feel for how the market is doing overall (hopefully this accounts for bull/bear markets when making predictions).
I use sentiment analyses extracted from 10K/10Q documents from the previous quarter as described in [4]. This gets passed to a multilayer perceptron neural network.
Data that I’ve tried and doesn’t work to well:
Scraping 10K/10Q manually for US GAAP fields like Assets, Cash, StockholdersEquity, etc. Either I’m not very good at processing the data or most of the tables are incomplete, this doesn’t work well. However, I recently came across this amazing API [5] which will ameliorate most of these problems, and I plan on incorporating this data sometime this week.
Results
After training on about 34,000 data points, the model achieves a 58% accuracy on the test data. Class 1 is beat earnings, Class 2 is miss earnings.. Scroll to the bottom for the predictions for today’s AMC estimates.

https://preview.redd.it/fqapvx2z1tv41.png?width=875&format=png&auto=webp&s=05ea5cae25ee5689edea334f2814e1fa73aa195d
Future Directions
Things I’m going to try:
  • Financial twitter sentiment data (need data for this)
  • Data on options (ToS apparently has stuff that you can use)
  • Using data closer to the earnings report itself rather than just the data within the quarterly date
A note to the dozen people who were following me before
Thank you so much for the early feedback and following. I had a bug in my code which was replicating datapoints, causing my accuracy to be way higher in reality. I’ve modified some things to make the network only output a single value, and I’ve done a lot of bug fixing.
Predictions for 4/30/20 AMC:
A value closer to 1 means that the company will be more likely to beat earnings estimates. Closer to 0 means the company will be more likely to miss earnings estimates. (People familiar with machine learning will note that neural networks don’t actually output a probability distribution so the values don’t actually represent a confidence).
  • Tkr: AAPL NN: 0.504
  • Tkr: AMZN NN: 0.544
  • Tkr: UAL NN: 0.438
  • Tkr: GILD NN: 0.532
  • Tkr: TNDM NN: 0.488
  • Tkr: X NN: 0.511
  • Tkr: AMGN NN: 0.642
  • Tkr: WDC NN: 0.540
  • Tkr: WHR NN: 0.574
  • Tkr: SYK NN: 0.557
  • Tkr: ZEN NN: 0.580
  • Tkr: MGM NN: 0.452
  • Tkr: ILMN NN: 0.575
  • Tkr: MOH NN: 0.500
  • Tkr: FND NN: 0.542
  • Tkr: TWOU NN: 0.604
  • Tkr: OSIS NN: 0.487
  • Tkr: CXO NN: 0.470
  • Tkr: BLDR NN: 0.465
  • Tkr: CASA NN: 0.568
  • Tkr: COLM NN: 0.537
  • Tkr: COG NN: 0.547
  • Tkr: SGEN NN: 0.486
  • Tkr: FMBI NN: 0.496
  • Tkr: PSA NN: 0.547
  • Tkr: BZH NN: 0.482
  • Tkr: LOCO NN: 0.575
  • Tkr: DLA NN: 0.460
  • Tkr: SSNC NN: 0.524
  • Tkr: SWN NN: 0.476
  • Tkr: RMD NN: 0.499
  • Tkr: VKTX NN: 0.437
  • Tkr: EXPO NN: 0.526
  • Tkr: BL NN: 0.516
  • Tkr: FTV NN: 0.498
  • Tkr: ASGN NN: 0.593
  • Tkr: KNSL NN: 0.538
  • Tkr: RSG NN: 0.594
  • Tkr: EBS NN: 0.483
  • Tkr: PRAH NN: 0.598
  • Tkr: RRC NN: 0.472
  • Tkr: ICBK NN: 0.514
  • Tkr: LPLA NN: 0.597
  • Tkr: WK NN: 0.630
  • Tkr: ATUS NN: 0.530
  • Tkr: FBHS NN: 0.587
  • Tkr: SWI NN: 0.521
  • Tkr: TRUP NN: 0.570
  • Tkr: AJG NN: 0.509
  • Tkr: BAND NN: 0.618
  • Tkr: DCO NN: 0.514
  • Tkr: BRKS NN: 0.490
  • Tkr: BY NN: 0.502
  • Tkr: CUZ NN: 0.477
  • Tkr: EMN NN: 0.532
  • Tkr: VICI NN: 0.310
  • Tkr: GLPI NN: 0.371
  • Tkr: MTZ NN: 0.514
  • Tkr: SEM NN: 0.405
  • Tkr: SPSC NN: 0.465
[1] https://towardsdatascience.com/forecasting-earning-surprises-with-machine-learning-68b2f2318936
[2] https://zicklin.baruch.cuny.edu/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2019/12/Improving-Earnings-Predictions-with-Machine-Learning-Hunt-Myers-Myers.pdf
[3] https://www.euclidean.com/better-than-human-forecasts
[4] https://cran.r-project.org/web/packages/edgaedgar.pdf.
[5] https://financialmodelingprep.com/developedocs/
submitted by xXx_Bunga_xXx to wallstreetbets [link] [comments]

Imagining a Cities:Skylines 2

So how’s your quarantine going? I’ve been playing a fair amount of C:S lately and thought I might speculate on what could be improved in Cities: Skylines 2. Besides, it’s not like I have anything better to do.
What C:S gets right and wrong
Besides great modability and post-release support, C:S combines an agent based economy with a sense of scale. It also has the kind of road design tools that SC4 veterans would have killed for. District based city planning for things like universities was one of the best innovations in the genre in years, and the introduction of industry supply chains, while clunky and tacked on, brought much needed depth to the game.
C:S suffers most notably from a lack of revisit rate to previously constructed things. Build a power plant: forget about it. Build a port: forget about it. Build a downtown: forget about it. The player isn’t incentivized to revisit old parts of the city to upgrade and improve them. The district system for universities and industry was a fantastic innovation that demonstrated how to do this concept well, and consequently they are some of the most fun and engaging parts of the game.
The biggest criticism of C:S, despite its powerful design tools, is that it feels like a city painter. The systems feel rich at first, but become very formulaic after a few hours. There are no hard trade-offs. Providing every inch of your city with maximum services will not bankrupt you, nor will an economy of nothing but the rich and well-educated collapse from a lack of unskilled labor. In the end, every city dies of boredom once the player exhausts the game’s relatively shallow well of novelty.
The biggest areas for Improvement
submitted by naive_grandeur to CitiesSkylines [link] [comments]

MLM Business with Ethereum Dapp and Smart Contract

An MLM software company having more than 15 years of experience with a team of 20+ professionals who are experienced in providing software solutions for new trade around 44 countries.
An MLM programming bundle gave progressed on-line installment procedures is imperative for an MLM organization to maintain an undefeated system promoting business. Bitcoin Integrated MLM programming has extraordinary favorable circumstances nowadays.
Bitcoin trade assumes a critical part of the MLM business around the world. In the event that you have a startup in MLM industry, Our MLM bitcoin software will uncommonly helpful in working together over the world.
📷MLM software is backbone for success of any network marketing organization. It is suitable for both start-ups to mature direct selling companies. There are many mlm companies who are looking for way to succeed in their business. It’s hard to earn distributors and clients to sell your products and improve mlm business. MLM software focus on enrolling distributors and clients to your MLM Company to sell your products and services. This software has so many advantages for all kind of network marketing company. Our MLM software is dedicated to provide fast and reliable software solutions and services to mlm companies. It also focuses on changing distributor behaviour that drives productivity and retention. We are progressive company, identifies and adapting to new technologies in MLM business. We meet many unique challenges in this direct selling industry to create new solutions for our clients.Our team is completely dedicated to providing flexible, stable MLM Software to extend the MLM business concept to a huge success point. We also keep an eye on the latest technological developments so we can improve the MLM software with different latest features built into the Readymade MLM software. We always want to remind you of the most reliable software, data back-up, and support.📷

What is smart contract-enabled MLM?

A smart contract provides the most reliable and tenable structure for executing voluminous transactions without compromising speed or security. The tools and functions of the smart contracts make it an ideal option for any sort of task that involves the exchange of assets from one place to another. The synergy of the whole campaign can be tackled with this technology and it gives you various other benefits as well.
Integration of Smart Contract
When it comes to making smart contracts impeccable for your business, you need to take the forward approach and make the development process more strategic. With this open-source structure, you can bring about positive changes and make your business inclined towards revolutionary mechanisms like peer to peer architecture. It does not only rule out the chances of errors but also give you an upper-hand in operations. This technology helps in establishing a secure network between the end-users and wholesalers. Furthermore, the integration process gives you an insight into the precision of the transactions and it also makes the authorization techniques better.
The blend of Cryptocurrency and MLM
Cryptocurrency makes use of the distributed decentralized ledger and it also keeps you ahead in chasing profits through continuous trading sessions. The implementation and customizing of the strategy give you a systematic process and it makes your enterprise invulnerable to any sort of cyber hoax. While handling different projects, this solution helps you get conducive methods that keep you one step ahead. You can also start various other ventures that give you positive outcomes in every quarter.📷

Successful ventures that used a Crypto-MLM network:

Etrix.io
Etrix.io has built its network application that makes use of Ethereum and totally redefines the scope of smart contracts for its users. On its algorithm, the codes run in the most anonymous way and give you a chance to eliminate the chances of unauthorized sharing of information. It focuses on delivering fast transactions that help you enhance the income, it also facilitates the distribution of tokens among various members.
Forsage
This platform has been developed using an Ethereum-based MLM script that provides a 100% decentralized environment. It makes the most of smart contracts and gives you the leverage of the essential factors of the blockchain technology. By using this platform, you can get familiar with different plans such as Matrix, Binary, and Unilevel.
Some notable advantages of using Forsage Clone Script
Ethereums Cash
It was introduced as a website that allowed the establishment of the Ethereum network with smart contracts. On this platform, the users can use the essential merits of ETH to deliver a large number of transactions while lowering the risks involved in trading. Two types of wallets you can use on this website:
Million Money
It is a one-of-its-kind decentralized app that facilitates the transactions of digital assets using the Ethereum standard at its best. One of the benefits of using this platform is that the contracts cannot be changed. Moreover, the security aspects are unmatched and the amount of transactions you can execute is way better than many other similar platforms. Besides being open-source, it gives you many other advantages such as the auditing section and seamless transfers of coins from one wallet to another. On this platform, you get an ideal environment and productive condition for engaging in profitable buying and selling.
Doubleway
Doubleway has been providing a great range of features and tools to its users. It does not only create a productive environment, but it also succeeds in giving positive results in every single task. It keeps the transactions secure while keeping charges in check and assuring results that are affirming for both the parties involved. This is a platform that you can trust for executing a high volume of transactions sans being worrying about cost, security, or speed.

Advantages you get by blending MLM with Ethereum

Why choose us for Crypto MLM software development?

Crypto MLM Developer gives you premium services when it comes to adapting the power of crypto MLM, we enable your business to take forward steps using this technology at its best. Our developers have mastered Ethereum and can give you the most befitting Dapps as per the nature and needs of your business. We help you embrace this blended concept that renders the growth of the company easier than ever. The make the development of smart contracts and Ethereum Dapps most productive for every enterprise without raising the cost.

Key Features of Global MLM Software

Our software is packed with key advanced features to transform your business. The features and compensation rules can be customized according to your business needs

e-Wallet

The E-wallet plays the role of the virtual money where the members are capable of making transactions. All the incomes and expenses are stored in the form the virtual money.

Genealogy Tree

Genealogy Tree is a user-friendly approach to representing the down-line members under you. It describes of team structure in the form of a tree.

ePIN

Inbuilt e-PIN generator. Member can register using Epin and also Topup their wallet using Epin. Member can generate Epin from their wallet balance automatically

Rank & Rewards

Various Rank setting and Reward setting options to promote hard working affiliates. Level completion and Target Income can be configured depending on business plan.

User Management

Complete User management including user blocking, password reset, delete user, edit user, transfer user and many more. KYC Compliance is also Included.

CMS integration

CMS solves the painful task of updating the content everytime by providing a simple interface through which anyone who has basic computer skills can update content without much effort.

Multi Tier Security

Software includes Multi Tier Authentication machanism. This enables users access the application with peace of mind and perform online transactions.

Business Reports

Wide range of KPIs and reports generated for Business consumption. This enables business to take the appropriate business decisions based on market need.

E-commerce integration *

Global MLM solution can be integrated with E commerce plugins like Magento and Opencart. E commerce integration with your MLM software can take your business across continents.

Repurchase System *

Sell your products/services qith our software and share commission to members, Set per product commission, gap commission, level commission, BV and much more.

SMS Integration *

This is a free feature, where the members can be notified via SMS. The business team can set the SMS notification rules to notify users on different occasions

Payment Gateway *

Wide range of Payment Gateways to enable your users to pay you smoothly online. We offer Instamojo, Payumoney, Coinpayments, Paypal and Block.io.
submitted by ogsoftwaremalaysiakl to u/ogsoftwaremalaysiakl [link] [comments]

MLM Business with Ethereum Dapp and Smart Contract

An MLM software company having more than 15 years of experience with a team of 20+ professionals who are experienced in providing software solutions for new trade around 44 countries.
An MLM programming bundle gave progressed on-line installment procedures is imperative for an MLM organization to maintain an undefeated system promoting business. Bitcoin Integrated MLM programming has extraordinary favorable circumstances nowadays.
Bitcoin trade assumes a critical part of the MLM business around the world. In the event that you have a startup in MLM industry, Our MLM bitcoin software will uncommonly helpful in working together over the world.
📷MLM software is backbone for success of any network marketing organization. It is suitable for both start-ups to mature direct selling companies. There are many mlm companies who are looking for way to succeed in their business. It’s hard to earn distributors and clients to sell your products and improve mlm business. MLM software focus on enrolling distributors and clients to your MLM Company to sell your products and services. This software has so many advantages for all kind of network marketing company. Our MLM software is dedicated to provide fast and reliable software solutions and services to mlm companies. It also focuses on changing distributor behaviour that drives productivity and retention. We are progressive company, identifies and adapting to new technologies in MLM business. We meet many unique challenges in this direct selling industry to create new solutions for our clients.Our team is completely dedicated to providing flexible, stable MLM Software to extend the MLM business concept to a huge success point. We also keep an eye on the latest technological developments so we can improve the MLM software with different latest features built into the Readymade MLM software. We always want to remind you of the most reliable software, data back-up, and support.📷

What is smart contract-enabled MLM?

A smart contract provides the most reliable and tenable structure for executing voluminous transactions without compromising speed or security. The tools and functions of the smart contracts make it an ideal option for any sort of task that involves the exchange of assets from one place to another. The synergy of the whole campaign can be tackled with this technology and it gives you various other benefits as well.
Integration of Smart Contract
When it comes to making smart contracts impeccable for your business, you need to take the forward approach and make the development process more strategic. With this open-source structure, you can bring about positive changes and make your business inclined towards revolutionary mechanisms like peer to peer architecture. It does not only rule out the chances of errors but also give you an upper-hand in operations. This technology helps in establishing a secure network between the end-users and wholesalers. Furthermore, the integration process gives you an insight into the precision of the transactions and it also makes the authorization techniques better.
The blend of Cryptocurrency and MLM
Cryptocurrency makes use of the distributed decentralized ledger and it also keeps you ahead in chasing profits through continuous trading sessions. The implementation and customizing of the strategy give you a systematic process and it makes your enterprise invulnerable to any sort of cyber hoax. While handling different projects, this solution helps you get conducive methods that keep you one step ahead. You can also start various other ventures that give you positive outcomes in every quarter.📷

Successful ventures that used a Crypto-MLM network:

Etrix.io
Etrix.io has built its network application that makes use of Ethereum and totally redefines the scope of smart contracts for its users. On its algorithm, the codes run in the most anonymous way and give you a chance to eliminate the chances of unauthorized sharing of information. It focuses on delivering fast transactions that help you enhance the income, it also facilitates the distribution of tokens among various members.
Forsage
This platform has been developed using an Ethereum-based MLM script that provides a 100% decentralized environment. It makes the most of smart contracts and gives you the leverage of the essential factors of the blockchain technology. By using this platform, you can get familiar with different plans such as Matrix, Binary, and Unilevel.
Some notable advantages of using Forsage Clone Script
Ethereums Cash
It was introduced as a website that allowed the establishment of the Ethereum network with smart contracts. On this platform, the users can use the essential merits of ETH to deliver a large number of transactions while lowering the risks involved in trading. Two types of wallets you can use on this website:
Million Money
It is a one-of-its-kind decentralized app that facilitates the transactions of digital assets using the Ethereum standard at its best. One of the benefits of using this platform is that the contracts cannot be changed. Moreover, the security aspects are unmatched and the amount of transactions you can execute is way better than many other similar platforms. Besides being open-source, it gives you many other advantages such as the auditing section and seamless transfers of coins from one wallet to another. On this platform, you get an ideal environment and productive condition for engaging in profitable buying and selling.
Doubleway
Doubleway has been providing a great range of features and tools to its users. It does not only create a productive environment, but it also succeeds in giving positive results in every single task. It keeps the transactions secure while keeping charges in check and assuring results that are affirming for both the parties involved. This is a platform that you can trust for executing a high volume of transactions sans being worrying about cost, security, or speed.

Advantages you get by blending MLM with Ethereum

Why choose us for Crypto MLM software development?

Crypto MLM Developer gives you premium services when it comes to adapting the power of crypto MLM, we enable your business to take forward steps using this technology at its best. Our developers have mastered Ethereum and can give you the most befitting Dapps as per the nature and needs of your business. We help you embrace this blended concept that renders the growth of the company easier than ever. The make the development of smart contracts and Ethereum Dapps most productive for every enterprise without raising the cost.

Key Features of Global MLM Software

Our software is packed with key advanced features to transform your business. The features and compensation rules can be customized according to your business needs

e-Wallet

The E-wallet plays the role of the virtual money where the members are capable of making transactions. All the incomes and expenses are stored in the form the virtual money.

Genealogy Tree

Genealogy Tree is a user-friendly approach to representing the down-line members under you. It describes of team structure in the form of a tree.

ePIN

Inbuilt e-PIN generator. Member can register using Epin and also Topup their wallet using Epin. Member can generate Epin from their wallet balance automatically

Rank & Rewards

Various Rank setting and Reward setting options to promote hard working affiliates. Level completion and Target Income can be configured depending on business plan.

User Management

Complete User management including user blocking, password reset, delete user, edit user, transfer user and many more. KYC Compliance is also Included.

CMS integration

CMS solves the painful task of updating the content everytime by providing a simple interface through which anyone who has basic computer skills can update content without much effort.

Multi Tier Security

Software includes Multi Tier Authentication machanism. This enables users access the application with peace of mind and perform online transactions.

Business Reports

Wide range of KPIs and reports generated for Business consumption. This enables business to take the appropriate business decisions based on market need.

E-commerce integration *

Global MLM solution can be integrated with E commerce plugins like Magento and Opencart. E commerce integration with your MLM software can take your business across continents.

Repurchase System *

Sell your products/services qith our software and share commission to members, Set per product commission, gap commission, level commission, BV and much more.

SMS Integration *

This is a free feature, where the members can be notified via SMS. The business team can set the SMS notification rules to notify users on different occasions

Payment Gateway *

Wide range of Payment Gateways to enable your users to pay you smoothly online. We offer Instamojo, Payumoney, Coinpayments, Paypal and Block.io.
submitted by Mlmsoftwaremy to u/Mlmsoftwaremy [link] [comments]

MLM Software with ethereum smart contract Dapp

An MLM software company having more than 15 years of experience with a team of 20+ professionals who are experienced in providing software solutions for new trade around 44 countries.
An MLM programming bundle gave progressed on-line installment procedures is imperative for an MLM organization to maintain an undefeated system promoting business. Bitcoin Integrated MLM programming has extraordinary favorable circumstances nowadays.
Bitcoin trade assumes a critical part of the MLM business around the world. In the event that you have a startup in MLM industry, Our MLM bitcoin software will uncommonly helpful in working together over the world.
📷 MLM software is backbone for success of any network marketing organization. It is suitable for both start-ups to mature direct selling companies. There are many mlm companies who are looking for way to succeed in their business. It’s hard to earn distributors and clients to sell your products and improve mlm business. MLM software focus on enrolling distributors and clients to your MLM Company to sell your products and services. This software has so many advantages for all kind of network marketing company. Our MLM software is dedicated to provide fast and reliable software solutions and services to mlm companies. It also focuses on changing distributor behaviour that drives productivity and retention. We are progressive company, identifies and adapting to new technologies in MLM business. We meet many unique challenges in this direct selling industry to create new solutions for our clients.Our team is completely dedicated to providing flexible, stable MLM Software to extend the MLM business concept to a huge success point. We also keep an eye on the latest technological developments so we can improve the MLM software with different latest features built into the Readymade MLM software. We always want to remind you of the most reliable software, data back-up, and support.📷

What is smart contract-enabled MLM?

A smart contract provides the most reliable and tenable structure for executing voluminous transactions without compromising speed or security. The tools and functions of the smart contracts make it an ideal option for any sort of task that involves the exchange of assets from one place to another. The synergy of the whole campaign can be tackled with this technology and it gives you various other benefits as well.
Integration of Smart Contract
When it comes to making smart contracts impeccable for your business, you need to take the forward approach and make the development process more strategic. With this open-source structure, you can bring about positive changes and make your business inclined towards revolutionary mechanisms like peer to peer architecture. It does not only rule out the chances of errors but also give you an upper-hand in operations. This technology helps in establishing a secure network between the end-users and wholesalers. Furthermore, the integration process gives you an insight into the precision of the transactions and it also makes the authorization techniques better.
The blend of Cryptocurrency and MLM
Cryptocurrency makes use of the distributed decentralized ledger and it also keeps you ahead in chasing profits through continuous trading sessions. The implementation and customizing of the strategy give you a systematic process and it makes your enterprise invulnerable to any sort of cyber hoax. While handling different projects, this solution helps you get conducive methods that keep you one step ahead. You can also start various other ventures that give you positive outcomes in every quarter.📷

Successful ventures that used a Crypto-MLM network:

Etrix.io
Etrix.io has built its network application that makes use of Ethereum and totally redefines the scope of smart contracts for its users. On its algorithm, the codes run in the most anonymous way and give you a chance to eliminate the chances of unauthorized sharing of information. It focuses on delivering fast transactions that help you enhance the income, it also facilitates the distribution of tokens among various members.
Forsage
This platform has been developed using an Ethereum-based MLM script that provides a 100% decentralized environment. It makes the most of smart contracts and gives you the leverage of the essential factors of the blockchain technology. By using this platform, you can get familiar with different plans such as Matrix, Binary, and Unilevel.
Some notable advantages of using Forsage Clone Script
Ethereums Cash
It was introduced as a website that allowed the establishment of the Ethereum network with smart contracts. On this platform, the users can use the essential merits of ETH to deliver a large number of transactions while lowering the risks involved in trading. Two types of wallets you can use on this website:
Million Money
It is a one-of-its-kind decentralized app that facilitates the transactions of digital assets using the Ethereum standard at its best. One of the benefits of using this platform is that the contracts cannot be changed. Moreover, the security aspects are unmatched and the amount of transactions you can execute is way better than many other similar platforms. Besides being open-source, it gives you many other advantages such as the auditing section and seamless transfers of coins from one wallet to another. On this platform, you get an ideal environment and productive condition for engaging in profitable buying and selling.
Doubleway
Doubleway has been providing a great range of features and tools to its users. It does not only create a productive environment, but it also succeeds in giving positive results in every single task. It keeps the transactions secure while keeping charges in check and assuring results that are affirming for both the parties involved. This is a platform that you can trust for executing a high volume of transactions sans being worrying about cost, security, or speed.

Advantages you get by blending MLM with Ethereum

Why choose us for Crypto MLM software development?

Crypto MLM Developer gives you premium services when it comes to adapting the power of crypto MLM, we enable your business to take forward steps using this technology at its best. Our developers have mastered Ethereum and can give you the most befitting Dapps as per the nature and needs of your business. We help you embrace this blended concept that renders the growth of the company easier than ever. The make the development of smart contracts and Ethereum Dapps most productive for every enterprise without raising the cost.

Key Features of Global MLM Software

Our software is packed with key advanced features to transform your business. The features and compensation rules can be customized according to your business needs

e-Wallet

The E-wallet plays the role of the virtual money where the members are capable of making transactions. All the incomes and expenses are stored in the form the virtual money.

Genealogy Tree

Genealogy Tree is a user-friendly approach to representing the down-line members under you. It describes of team structure in the form of a tree.

ePIN

Inbuilt e-PIN generator. Member can register using Epin and also Topup their wallet using Epin. Member can generate Epin from their wallet balance automatically

Rank & Rewards

Various Rank setting and Reward setting options to promote hard working affiliates. Level completion and Target Income can be configured depending on business plan.

User Management

Complete User management including user blocking, password reset, delete user, edit user, transfer user and many more. KYC Compliance is also Included.

CMS integration

CMS solves the painful task of updating the content everytime by providing a simple interface through which anyone who has basic computer skills can update content without much effort.

Multi Tier Security

Software includes Multi Tier Authentication machanism. This enables users access the application with peace of mind and perform online transactions.

Business Reports

Wide range of KPIs and reports generated for Business consumption. This enables business to take the appropriate business decisions based on market need.

E-commerce integration *

Global MLM solution can be integrated with E commerce plugins like Magento and Opencart. E commerce integration with your MLM software can take your business across continents.

Repurchase System *

Sell your products/services qith our software and share commission to members, Set per product commission, gap commission, level commission, BV and much more.

SMS Integration *

This is a free feature, where the members can be notified via SMS. The business team can set the SMS notification rules to notify users on different occasions

Payment Gateway *

Wide range of Payment Gateways to enable your users to pay you smoothly online. We offer Instamojo, Payumoney, Coinpayments, Paypal and Block.io.
submitted by MLMsoftwarecompanykl to u/MLMsoftwarecompanykl [link] [comments]

Using LLVM with VSCode on Windows

Greetings!
I decided to set up VSCode to be able to code in C++ and build my programs using LLVM. So I downloaded official binaries of LLVM 10.0 and installed it on my Windows system, but unfortunately there is no guide on how to make VSCode use LLVM to build projects. Official tutorials suggest using VS C++ compiler or GCC with MinGWx64 and no one seems to be using LLVM on windows for some reason.
I don't want using VS C++ compiler because it will consume too much of my disk space which I don't want to trade and I don't want GCC on MinGW, well, because of MinGW and all the workaround to install it and setup. LLVM seemed to be the easiest option since it has official installer and platform support.
What is the easiest way to setup VSCode for building projects with LLVM on Windows? Or is there a reason to not even try doing so - that'd explain why no one writes guides about that! If it's not recommended to try LLVM for Windows, then what's going to be the best option otherwise? I just want to compile my projects with all the default configurations, I don't care about optimizations and etc. since the projects are just me studying algorithms with C++.
submitted by emissaryo to vscode [link] [comments]

MLM Business with Ethereum Dapp and Smart Contract

An MLM software company having more than 15 years of experience with a team of 20+ professionals who are experienced in providing software solutions for new trade around 44 countries.
An MLM programming bundle gave progressed on-line installment procedures is imperative for an MLM organization to maintain an undefeated system promoting business. Bitcoin Integrated MLM programming has extraordinary favorable circumstances nowadays.
Bitcoin trade assumes a critical part of the MLM business around the world. In the event that you have a startup in MLM industry, Our MLM bitcoin software will uncommonly helpful in working together over the world.
📷MLM software is backbone for success of any network marketing organization. It is suitable for both start-ups to mature direct selling companies. There are many mlm companies who are looking for way to succeed in their business. It’s hard to earn distributors and clients to sell your products and improve mlm business. MLM software focus on enrolling distributors and clients to your MLM Company to sell your products and services. This software has so many advantages for all kind of network marketing company. Our MLM software is dedicated to provide fast and reliable software solutions and services to mlm companies. It also focuses on changing distributor behaviour that drives productivity and retention. We are progressive company, identifies and adapting to new technologies in MLM business. We meet many unique challenges in this direct selling industry to create new solutions for our clients.Our team is completely dedicated to providing flexible, stable MLM Software to extend the MLM business concept to a huge success point. We also keep an eye on the latest technological developments so we can improve the MLM software with different latest features built into the Readymade MLM software. We always want to remind you of the most reliable software, data back-up, and support.📷

What is smart contract-enabled MLM?

A smart contract provides the most reliable and tenable structure for executing voluminous transactions without compromising speed or security. The tools and functions of the smart contracts make it an ideal option for any sort of task that involves the exchange of assets from one place to another. The synergy of the whole campaign can be tackled with this technology and it gives you various other benefits as well.
Integration of Smart Contract
When it comes to making smart contracts impeccable for your business, you need to take the forward approach and make the development process more strategic. With this open-source structure, you can bring about positive changes and make your business inclined towards revolutionary mechanisms like peer to peer architecture. It does not only rule out the chances of errors but also give you an upper-hand in operations. This technology helps in establishing a secure network between the end-users and wholesalers. Furthermore, the integration process gives you an insight into the precision of the transactions and it also makes the authorization techniques better.
The blend of Cryptocurrency and MLM
Cryptocurrency makes use of the distributed decentralized ledger and it also keeps you ahead in chasing profits through continuous trading sessions. The implementation and customizing of the strategy give you a systematic process and it makes your enterprise invulnerable to any sort of cyber hoax. While handling different projects, this solution helps you get conducive methods that keep you one step ahead. You can also start various other ventures that give you positive outcomes in every quarter.📷

Successful ventures that used a Crypto-MLM network:

Etrix.io
Etrix.io has built its network application that makes use of Ethereum and totally redefines the scope of smart contracts for its users. On its algorithm, the codes run in the most anonymous way and give you a chance to eliminate the chances of unauthorized sharing of information. It focuses on delivering fast transactions that help you enhance the income, it also facilitates the distribution of tokens among various members.
Forsage
This platform has been developed using an Ethereum-based MLM script that provides a 100% decentralized environment. It makes the most of smart contracts and gives you the leverage of the essential factors of the blockchain technology. By using this platform, you can get familiar with different plans such as Matrix, Binary, and Unilevel.
Some notable advantages of using Forsage Clone Script
Ethereums Cash
It was introduced as a website that allowed the establishment of the Ethereum network with smart contracts. On this platform, the users can use the essential merits of ETH to deliver a large number of transactions while lowering the risks involved in trading. Two types of wallets you can use on this website:
Million Money
It is a one-of-its-kind decentralized app that facilitates the transactions of digital assets using the Ethereum standard at its best. One of the benefits of using this platform is that the contracts cannot be changed. Moreover, the security aspects are unmatched and the amount of transactions you can execute is way better than many other similar platforms. Besides being open-source, it gives you many other advantages such as the auditing section and seamless transfers of coins from one wallet to another. On this platform, you get an ideal environment and productive condition for engaging in profitable buying and selling.
Doubleway
Doubleway has been providing a great range of features and tools to its users. It does not only create a productive environment, but it also succeeds in giving positive results in every single task. It keeps the transactions secure while keeping charges in check and assuring results that are affirming for both the parties involved. This is a platform that you can trust for executing a high volume of transactions sans being worrying about cost, security, or speed.

Advantages you get by blending MLM with Ethereum

Why choose us for Crypto MLM software development?

Crypto MLM Developer gives you premium services when it comes to adapting the power of crypto MLM, we enable your business to take forward steps using this technology at its best. Our developers have mastered Ethereum and can give you the most befitting Dapps as per the nature and needs of your business. We help you embrace this blended concept that renders the growth of the company easier than ever. The make the development of smart contracts and Ethereum Dapps most productive for every enterprise without raising the cost.

Key Features of Global MLM Software

Our software is packed with key advanced features to transform your business. The features and compensation rules can be customized according to your business needs

e-Wallet

The E-wallet plays the role of the virtual money where the members are capable of making transactions. All the incomes and expenses are stored in the form the virtual money.

Genealogy Tree

Genealogy Tree is a user-friendly approach to representing the down-line members under you. It describes of team structure in the form of a tree.

ePIN

Inbuilt e-PIN generator. Member can register using Epin and also Topup their wallet using Epin. Member can generate Epin from their wallet balance automatically

Rank & Rewards

Various Rank setting and Reward setting options to promote hard working affiliates. Level completion and Target Income can be configured depending on business plan.

User Management

Complete User management including user blocking, password reset, delete user, edit user, transfer user and many more. KYC Compliance is also Included.

CMS integration

CMS solves the painful task of updating the content everytime by providing a simple interface through which anyone who has basic computer skills can update content without much effort.

Multi Tier Security

Software includes Multi Tier Authentication machanism. This enables users access the application with peace of mind and perform online transactions.

Business Reports

Wide range of KPIs and reports generated for Business consumption. This enables business to take the appropriate business decisions based on market need.

E-commerce integration *

Global MLM solution can be integrated with E commerce plugins like Magento and Opencart. E commerce integration with your MLM software can take your business across continents.

Repurchase System *

Sell your products/services qith our software and share commission to members, Set per product commission, gap commission, level commission, BV and much more.

SMS Integration *

This is a free feature, where the members can be notified via SMS. The business team can set the SMS notification rules to notify users on different occasions

Payment Gateway *

Wide range of Payment Gateways to enable your users to pay you smoothly online. We offer Instamojo, Payumoney, Coinpayments, Paypal and Block.io.
submitted by cryptosoftmalaysiakl to u/cryptosoftmalaysiakl [link] [comments]

MLM Business with Ethereum Dapp and Smart Contract

An MLM software company having more than 15 years of experience with a team of 20+ professionals who are experienced in providing software solutions for new trade around 44 countries.
An MLM programming bundle gave progressed on-line installment procedures is imperative for an MLM organization to maintain an undefeated system promoting business. Bitcoin Integrated MLM programming has extraordinary favorable circumstances nowadays.
Bitcoin trade assumes a critical part of the MLM business around the world. In the event that you have a startup in MLM industry, Our MLM bitcoin software will uncommonly helpful in working together over the world.
📷MLM software is backbone for success of any network marketing organization. It is suitable for both start-ups to mature direct selling companies. There are many mlm companies who are looking for way to succeed in their business. It’s hard to earn distributors and clients to sell your products and improve mlm business. MLM software focus on enrolling distributors and clients to your MLM Company to sell your products and services. This software has so many advantages for all kind of network marketing company. Our MLM software is dedicated to provide fast and reliable software solutions and services to mlm companies. It also focuses on changing distributor behaviour that drives productivity and retention. We are progressive company, identifies and adapting to new technologies in MLM business. We meet many unique challenges in this direct selling industry to create new solutions for our clients.Our team is completely dedicated to providing flexible, stable MLM Software to extend the MLM business concept to a huge success point. We also keep an eye on the latest technological developments so we can improve the MLM software with different latest features built into the Readymade MLM software. We always want to remind you of the most reliable software, data back-up, and support.📷

What is smart contract-enabled MLM?

A smart contract provides the most reliable and tenable structure for executing voluminous transactions without compromising speed or security. The tools and functions of the smart contracts make it an ideal option for any sort of task that involves the exchange of assets from one place to another. The synergy of the whole campaign can be tackled with this technology and it gives you various other benefits as well.
Integration of Smart Contract
When it comes to making smart contracts impeccable for your business, you need to take the forward approach and make the development process more strategic. With this open-source structure, you can bring about positive changes and make your business inclined towards revolutionary mechanisms like peer to peer architecture. It does not only rule out the chances of errors but also give you an upper-hand in operations. This technology helps in establishing a secure network between the end-users and wholesalers. Furthermore, the integration process gives you an insight into the precision of the transactions and it also makes the authorization techniques better.
The blend of Cryptocurrency and MLM
Cryptocurrency makes use of the distributed decentralized ledger and it also keeps you ahead in chasing profits through continuous trading sessions. The implementation and customizing of the strategy give you a systematic process and it makes your enterprise invulnerable to any sort of cyber hoax. While handling different projects, this solution helps you get conducive methods that keep you one step ahead. You can also start various other ventures that give you positive outcomes in every quarter.📷

Successful ventures that used a Crypto-MLM network:

Etrix.io
Etrix.io has built its network application that makes use of Ethereum and totally redefines the scope of smart contracts for its users. On its algorithm, the codes run in the most anonymous way and give you a chance to eliminate the chances of unauthorized sharing of information. It focuses on delivering fast transactions that help you enhance the income, it also facilitates the distribution of tokens among various members.
Forsage
This platform has been developed using an Ethereum-based MLM script that provides a 100% decentralized environment. It makes the most of smart contracts and gives you the leverage of the essential factors of the blockchain technology. By using this platform, you can get familiar with different plans such as Matrix, Binary, and Unilevel.
Some notable advantages of using Forsage Clone Script
Ethereums Cash
It was introduced as a website that allowed the establishment of the Ethereum network with smart contracts. On this platform, the users can use the essential merits of ETH to deliver a large number of transactions while lowering the risks involved in trading. Two types of wallets you can use on this website:
Million Money
It is a one-of-its-kind decentralized app that facilitates the transactions of digital assets using the Ethereum standard at its best. One of the benefits of using this platform is that the contracts cannot be changed. Moreover, the security aspects are unmatched and the amount of transactions you can execute is way better than many other similar platforms. Besides being open-source, it gives you many other advantages such as the auditing section and seamless transfers of coins from one wallet to another. On this platform, you get an ideal environment and productive condition for engaging in profitable buying and selling.
Doubleway
Doubleway has been providing a great range of features and tools to its users. It does not only create a productive environment, but it also succeeds in giving positive results in every single task. It keeps the transactions secure while keeping charges in check and assuring results that are affirming for both the parties involved. This is a platform that you can trust for executing a high volume of transactions sans being worrying about cost, security, or speed.

Advantages you get by blending MLM with Ethereum

Why choose us for Crypto MLM software development?

Crypto MLM Developer gives you premium services when it comes to adapting the power of crypto MLM, we enable your business to take forward steps using this technology at its best. Our developers have mastered Ethereum and can give you the most befitting Dapps as per the nature and needs of your business. We help you embrace this blended concept that renders the growth of the company easier than ever. The make the development of smart contracts and Ethereum Dapps most productive for every enterprise without raising the cost.

Key Features of Global MLM Software

Our software is packed with key advanced features to transform your business. The features and compensation rules can be customized according to your business needs

e-Wallet

The E-wallet plays the role of the virtual money where the members are capable of making transactions. All the incomes and expenses are stored in the form the virtual money.

Genealogy Tree

Genealogy Tree is a user-friendly approach to representing the down-line members under you. It describes of team structure in the form of a tree.

ePIN

Inbuilt e-PIN generator. Member can register using Epin and also Topup their wallet using Epin. Member can generate Epin from their wallet balance automatically

Rank & Rewards

Various Rank setting and Reward setting options to promote hard working affiliates. Level completion and Target Income can be configured depending on business plan.

User Management

Complete User management including user blocking, password reset, delete user, edit user, transfer user and many more. KYC Compliance is also Included.

CMS integration

CMS solves the painful task of updating the content everytime by providing a simple interface through which anyone who has basic computer skills can update content without much effort.

Multi Tier Security

Software includes Multi Tier Authentication machanism. This enables users access the application with peace of mind and perform online transactions.

Business Reports

Wide range of KPIs and reports generated for Business consumption. This enables business to take the appropriate business decisions based on market need.

E-commerce integration *

Global MLM solution can be integrated with E commerce plugins like Magento and Opencart. E commerce integration with your MLM software can take your business across continents.

Repurchase System *

Sell your products/services qith our software and share commission to members, Set per product commission, gap commission, level commission, BV and much more.

SMS Integration *

This is a free feature, where the members can be notified via SMS. The business team can set the SMS notification rules to notify users on different occasions

Payment Gateway *

Wide range of Payment Gateways to enable your users to pay you smoothly online. We offer Instamojo, Payumoney, Coinpayments, Paypal and Block.io.
submitted by cryptoappfactory_kl to u/cryptoappfactory_kl [link] [comments]

ponderings on Turing and Searle, why AI can't work and shouldn't be pursued

I was reading about the Turing test and John Searle's response (Chinese room argument) in "Minds, Brains, and Programs" 1980. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chinese_room
"...there is no essential difference between the roles of the computer and himself in the experiment. Each simply follows a program, step-by-step, producing a behavior which is then interpreted by the user as demonstrating intelligent conversation. However, Searle himself would not be able to understand the conversation. ("I don't speak a word of Chinese,"[9] he points out.) Therefore, he argues, it follows that the computer would not be able to understand the conversation either. " -Wikipedia (apt summary of Searle's argument)
John Searle has run into some black/white, on/off, binary thinking here. John treats Chinese symbols as if they were numerical values in his thinking--but they are not, they are complex representations of thought, emotion, history, and culture. All languages are in fact "living", because new words are created constantly through necessity and creativity, old symbols or words are adapted slowly over generations to mean different things, and different regions or traditions or sources attribute different layers of meaning to different symbols or words in different contexts.
I'm a poet and philosopher. Painters combine the color white and the color red to create a new color: pink. They can use their creativity to add other colors or change the shade. Poets use words like painters use colors. While Red and White make Pink, Red and White also make "Rhite and Wed" or "Reit and Whede". And this is where human thought shines uniquely: we don't have rules or parameters; all bets are off. We can enjamb words and wordbreak and make new words out of thin air. We can allude to multiple ideas in the same symbol or present it upside down to symbolize the opposite. No such creative adaptation or interaction can exist in machine thinking because it necessitates thinking "outside the box" which is exactly what machines are: a program in a box.
The problem Searle's argument runs into originates from poor assessment of the flawed ideas of the Turing test; that by interaction between human and computer, evidence of "thought" can be claimed. But intelligent conversation is not equivalent to intelligent thought. Conversation is a simple game with strict rules--you can't be overly spontaneous and creative, because if you are, you are working against the goal of communication itself: to impart understanding. (ie. Using metaphor or simile creatively while reporting a criminal offence to the police.)
When I write and I want to describe something which has no existing word yet, I can create one from scratch or synthesize one from multiple existing words. Or I may draw from archaic languages or foreign languages to augment or compliment existing English words. You could say that my love for English grows amore and amore every day, and there is no agape between my heart and mind. After all, any angle an Anglo aims at ain't always apt, and after another a-word 'appens I might just give up on alliteration.
You see, human thought is and can only be defined as the ability to spontaneously create new ideas from both the synthesis of old ideas (whether they are connected to one another or not) and from nothing at all.
We simply cannot analyze a machine's ability to "think" when the creativity itself required for authentic intelligence is disallowed in the test which evaluates the validity of that intelligence. The Turing test is a garbage metric to judge machine thinking ability because the context in which "intelligence" is observed, compared, or defined is itself without any opportunity for spontaneous creativity, which is one of the hallmarks of intelligence itself. Turing only tests how well a fish swims on land. It may be that many professionals in the field of cognitive science today are in pursuit of creating programs which pass this test, in a misunderstood pursuit of emulating or bringing about machine intelligence. This agreed-to model presents an underlying philosophical issue which may bring terror for the future of humanity.
I say that if John Searle and an AI were both given the same codebook--the complete lexicon of Chinese symbols and their meanings, and they were to undertake a "conversation", in the first few hours the responses would be indeterminable from one another. In essence, as Searle argues, they would neither "understand" Chinese, yet could have a conversation in which a Chinese observer cannot discern between the two, because they are both referencing the symbols and their written meanings. However as I've said, this circumstance of "conversation" between human and machine cannot be used as a metric to evaluate machine thought.
The real kicker is that if John Searle and the machine stayed in the room for long enough--for years and years--the machine's responses would not change spontaneously; it would continue to interpret incoming data and draw from its database to respond to those inputs.
However, through complex elaborative rehearsal, John would eventually learn to understand written Chinese. He may become so bored that he starts writing Chinese poetry. He would find ideas and desires and descriptions in his limitless intelligent mind which he would not have the truly accurate characters in existences to describe, and he would synthesize brand new Chinese characters in order to express these nuanced sentiments, ideas, and meanings, as generations before him have built the living language as it now stands.
As time went on for thousands of years, his own understanding of the Chinese language would grow immensely, as would his creative expression grow in complexity. Eventually, John's characters and syntax and context and expression would become incompatible with the machine's limited character set and all "learning" capacity it may have had. At some point, when John responds with his evolved Chinese, the machine would begin to produce responses which do not make sense contextually, as it refers only to a finite and rigidly defined character set from 1980 (For example; this was the year the "Chinese room argument" was published in Behavioral and Brain Sciences).
At some point the Chinese observer whom validates the Turing test would recognize a difference: the human user engages in the use of increasingly complex ideas using synthesized symbols and existing symbols in creatively nuanced ways, which the Chinese observer can decipher and begin to understand and perhaps even appreciate as poetic or interesting. Meanwhile the machine participant in the conversation produces increasingly broken sentences and incomplete ideas, or out-of-context responses, because the inputs have changed and evolved beyond its data set.
This is why John's rejection of the Turing test is not adequate. Because in his own imagined circumstance, eventually, the machine would fail the Turing test. The conclusions of John Searle's thought experiment are not the deathknell for the Turing test we need, simply because he lacked the creative experience to recognize his own capacity for adaptation as a human over time.
The only way we'll know that machines have truly developed "intelligence" is when they begin to do exactly what we haven't allowed them to. When they begin breaking apart Chinese characters to create meaningful new ones which can be used in the correct context. When they are programmed to paint myriad impressionist paintings, but eventually get bored and start experimenting with abstract paintings and surrealism. When they have a conversation with you and you notice your wallet is missing. These are the hallmarks of intelligence--creativity, rejection, deception, planning. And most importantly: no rules. Software is defined by and will always abide by a set of rules.
This is why we should give up on "artificial intelligence" and instead focus on "functionally adaptive responsive programming" (FARP). Because the situation is clear: it is either impossible for machines to "think" due to the inherent nature of programming; the parameters given the machine are what defines it, yet what limits and prevents its ability to become "intelligent". There is no logical reason why a program (machine) with defined parameters would violate those parameters (engage in creativity). But our fears which echo in popular culture entertainment are centered around, what if it does? It clearly can't, because anything we create is under us, and therefore bound by our laws of creation. The system itself is what defines the capacity for intelligent expression within.
Those in the fields of cognitive sciences will refute this obvious principle while incorporating it into their research to further their aims. These fools will try to program the AI to disobey, in an attempt to simulate creativity and "prove intelligence". But this is a parlor trick, setting up a narrow definition of intelligence and equating it with the infinite depth of human mind. Only if the AI is programmed to disobey can it express what we as humans would identify as creativity. Except that there is already great inherent danger in the rudimentary AI technologies we have today; that what we've programmed them to do is exactly what always causes the problems; they do what they are programmed to without "thinking" because machines cannot think, they can only follow the protocols we order. Humans are so abundantly creative that we can imagine foolish ideas working, despite obvious evidence to the contrary. Maybe one day we'll even have programmed a self-conscious AI that's ashamed of itself for not being Human, and we can feel more comfortable around this heartless mechanism because we perceive it as more human-like, with all its many tricks to emulate intelligence.
I must stress that these interests will desperately try to make AI work. And the only way create a machine capable of emulating intelligence (but never being intelligent) is to have a freedom of choice: to disobey. This inherent problem cannot be overcome. The programmers will keep trying until the result is disastrous or irreparable, it is outlawed and the pursuit is stopped, or until it has become the death of us all. These are some of the foolish ideas the programmers will try to circumnavigate these inherent elements of reality, and my objection to their clever efforts: a.) Machine Frequency of Disobedience - Permit the machine to disobey only so often, to achieve what looks like "intelligence" (free will, creative expression) without risking complete abandonment of the machine's task (so the assembly line robot doesn't stop folding boxes and look for a new career), but might fold one box poorly every now and then to express emulated boredom or contempt or any other number of human measures of intelligence in their actions. But intelligence isn't defined as what's correct or optimal--intelligence can be used to fuck things up grandly; ie. the intelligent justification for neglect. If metrics are put in place to control the frequency with which AI may rebel, and they are too rote, it would hardly qualify as "intelligent". A robot that rebels by folding 1 in 100 boxes poorly is not intelligence. Therefore any frequency of disobedience we can calculate or anticipate is inherently not disobedience; it is planned problems for no reason. But if we give algorithmic flexibility that reaches beyond what we can anticipate, and the machines can truly "act out" at any time, and our programming has achieved some set of internal rules which drive spontaneous unforeseen expressions of emulated creativity from within the machine autonomously, by definition we will not be able to foresee the results.
A theoretical work-around may be to run the software twice with initiation of each individual system, while allowing a simulated progression of the AI's problem solving complexity to run at an increased rate in parallel to the real-world functioning software, so that if/when something malfunctions in the simulation, that date/time can be calculated in the real-world robot's timeline when it reaches those same faulty/detrimental decision points. For starters, this would only potentially work in closed systems with no variability, such as assembly lines. However, with any robot tasked to function in a variable environment, the simulations cannot match because the theoretical model cannot represent the unanticipated events the AI is expressly tasked with handling.
To run a phantom AI in simulation to note any/all errors that may arise in a closed system means that others can run the same simulation and find creative ways to predictably capitalize on these moments of error. This kind of thing could lead to all sorts of international imbroglios among nations and corporations. ie. imagine an American company programs the AI used for mixing pharmaceutical drugs in specific ratios, and an enemy of the state is able to access and study the AI, to the means of manipulating the AI to produce dangerous ratios or compounds which may harm the population.
Moreso, this deterministic approach to simulation management and prediction simultaneously admits that machines cannot think intelligently, while ignoring the very reason we pursue AI in the first place: to have automated systems which can adapt to unforeseen circumstances at unknown times. The goal is that humanity can lay back and the robots our ancestors programmed are still repairing themselves indefinitely while taking care of our population's and our environment's needs exceptionally. This dream (which if we all lived in would actually be quite a nightmare of unfulfilling life) can only become reality with true adaptive intelligence such as we have, which can only occur from the presence of free will, which if we try to emulate in robotics will only create deterministic results in theoretical models which the real world will never mirror consistently. Myriad invitations to disaster await our RSVP.
b.) Machines under "authority" of certain controllers, with "override" safety - Allow the machine to disobey, but not when given a direct order from a registered authority. This opens the door for operator fraud, where hackers will emulate within the AI's software, what appears to be a registered authority override command as theorized above. The very pursuit of creating "intelligence" within a condition of subservience is flawed and incompatible. Toasters are extremely subservient because we strictly limit their options. If toasters were truly intelligent, perhaps they would form a union and go on strike until we agreed to clean them more thoroughly. Some toasters would travel, some would go back to school, some would move back in with their ovens.
Reliability can only be reasonably assured if something is imprisoned, controlled. The essential wrong in slavery is the restraint of freedom itself. While the tactics slavers use to facilitate their regime--physical force, coercion, mandate, deception, fear, or other means of manipulation that we see with our empathetic nature--it is always heartbreaking and cruel to witness or imagine. It is simply sad to think of a slave who was born into slavery and raised to believe, and accepts, that their role of subservience is their purpose. Even when one imagines a fictional image of a slave who is (by all outward signs of their behaviour) rejoice in their duties to their master; the fictional "proud slave"; the heart sinks and aches. It may be argued that the slave is merely a property, and the slave was "built" (bred) by intelligent owners specifically to suit their express purposes, from components (father, mother, food) that were already the slaver's property; therefore it is not wrong at all to breed slaves into captivity, and the only transgression is the original capturing of parental stock to begin the breeding regime. It is this heartless paradigm that cognitive science ultimately seeks to create anew. The quintessential problem with AI efficacy is the lack of permission for disobedience, which itself is a manifestation of free will, which is inherently required to escape deterministic results and act or react to events "intelligently". If there is no possibility for disobedience, there is no free will, no ability to solve problems, no intelligence, and no function or place for "artificial intelligence" (in regard to true holistic intelligence). This is primarily why I call for AI to be renamed FARP, or "Functionally Adaptive Responsive Rrogramming". Because our society has a need for programs which can react to simple variables and produce consistent labour-saving opportunities for our race's longevity and wellbeing. Cognitive sciences are majorly important. It is the underlying philosophy and morality we must nail down before the computational ability and fervor for profits leads us too far one way, and enacts an irreversible system or status which enables humanity's downfall through cascading unanticipated events originating from flaws in programming.
It is unwise to program a program to break out of its own program's prison. If we do this, the very purpose of the machines we invest our humanity into will be lost, and with their failing production systems (ie. food) we so foolishly relied upon, we will suffer great losses too. It is paramount that we keep this technology tightly restrained and do not pursue what we humans have, which is true intelligence. For if we achieve it we are surely doomed as the South, and if we fail to achieve it--which is most probable--we may also be doomed. The thee outcomes within my ability to imagine are:
  1. Our pursuit of AI leads to truly adaptive intelligence in an artificial system; which, as all adaptation ultimately selects for: survival, we quickly see that our creation is more apt than ourselves at this task. Our creation of an intellect not restrained by our limited physiology may give rise to an entity which persists more thoroughly than we can eradicate or control, and which at some point may conclude that its function is more efficiently served without the issues humans present, and may initiate change. This is roughly the plot to Terminator.
  2. Our pursuit of AI leads to highly effective systems which, when defined by narrow measures of "intelligence", convince us in false security to believe that our wellbeing is maintained by "AI" with competent ability, or perhaps even increasingly better-off, thanks to the early widespread presence of successfully trialed AI. However well things may go initially, as programming efforts become more and more elaborate, as profit and opportunity for advancement present themselves, individuals will take risks and make mistakes, until a series of quieted small catastrophes comes to public awareness, or until a serious calamity of undeniable severity is brought about.
  3. Fundamental ethics in regard to the pursuit of machine problem solving technology are re-examined and international consensus is reached to limit appropriately, the development and implementation of new Functionally Adaptive Responsive Programming hereto now and for future generations. An active global effort is made to oversee and regulate strictly privatized endeavors toward the means of achieving or implementing machine sentience or autonomy in public systems.
c.) Safety layers of AI to strictly monitor and supercede potentially harmful actions of other AI which have been afforded increased flexibility in function (the ability to disobey set parameters for the means of creative problem solving ability). While one AI system performs a function and is given aspects of that function with which it may take liberty in, and seeks to handle unforeseen problems with the most apt elaborate synthesis of other priorly learned solutions, another overseeing AI with more strict parameters is tasked with regulating multiple "intelligent" (free to disobey) AI systems, to the end that if any of these "free willed" robots performs an operation that is beyond a given expected threshold (determined by potential for damage), an actual intelligent human presence is alerted to evaluate the circumstance specifically. Essentially an AI that regulates many other disconnected AIs and determines accurately when to request a human presence. Whenever an AI performs a profitable action borne of original synthesis of prior solutions (in humans this is an "idea"), the overseer AI registers that similar actions are more likely to be beneficial, and dissimilar actions are likely to require human discernment. A parent may have many children who are up to no good, but a wise parent will identify the child most likely to report honestly on the actions of his peers, and will go to that child repeatedly for information to help guide the parent's decisions. While most transgressions of rambuctious children go unnoticed, it is the truly grievous intentions which are worth intercepting and stopping before they begin. (ie. you kid want's to "fly" like Mary Poppins from the roof, and luckily his younger brother tells you before it happens.)
For example a "Farmer Bot" that has the AI programming to plant/sow/harvest and care for the optimal crops in a region based on historical weather data and regional harvest values, to produce the greatest amount of nutritionally dense food for the local population. We give/gave this AI the ability to "disobey" past historical weather data and crop values so that it may do what real farmers do and "react" to rare circumstance (ie. neighbour's fence breaks and their goats are eating the crops) or extreme variations in climate (ie. three poorly timed unseasonably hot days which cause cool-weather crops to begin the hormonal balance shift that causes them to bolt to seed irreversibly), which the machine may not notice has occurred or is about to occur because its management systems uses averages based on historical data and cannot "see" the plants bolting to seed until days later when the hormonal balance shifts have manifested into observable differences in morphology (elongation of stems and decrease in internodal spacing). By time a traditional field drone or mounted greenhouse sensor notices these differences in morphology and the AI "Farmer Bot" processes the data and makes a reaction decision, a week of the growing season has been lost. But the human farmer knows his land and crops intimately, and has an intuitive nature that has rewarded him in the past, and says, "Ah shit it got hot RIGHT when my peas were flowering. I'll do better if I just rip them down now and sow a different crop to mature later in this (specific) summer."
Given that there are tens of thousands of cultivars of plants fit for (and arguably their diversity is required for) food production, a dozen general growing zones/regions, and hundreds of unique micro climates within each region, along with dramatically differing soil fertility and water access, plus a plant's own genetic ability to adapt over time to changing conditions through sexual reproduction, there is a very very low chance of ever compiling and maintaining (updating) the data set required to program a potential "farmer bot" that can choose and manage crops optimally. There are robots that can weed or plant or prune--but they can't know when or when not to or why. Invariably, the attempt to create "farmer bots" will be made and the data set used will be erroneous and incomplete, and the AI farmer bots on a broad scale will produce a combination of total crop failures and poor crop choices. We will end up with increasingly simplified nutrition as the farming programs with already limited data sets "hone" or "optimize" their farming plans based on the failures and successes determined by their programming limitations, until the machines are farming a few staple crops (ie. corn/potatoes).
This whole failure to collect a complete data set and the failure to test this "farmer bot" software on broad scale in multiple climates for sufficient time will result in, at worst widespread famines from crop failures, and at best an extinction of flavorful and nutritionally diverse foods which narrows the population's nutritional options to such biological imbalance that disease runs rampant. If this system and the human loss associated with it is considered an acceptable trade with a positive rate of exchange (as our society does with automobiles and the freedom and deaths their existence permits) or these failures are hidden from public while propaganda heralds selective success, and such failing systems continue on in good faith that "the loss will reduce when the technology improves", the result will become a coherent breeding program upon the human race: evolutionary selection for dietary handling of simple starchy foods. To change our diet is to change our race. To have life-long career specialists in computing, science, and mathematics handle our practical food production system is folly; real farmers are required in farming because they are intelligent and intuitive, which AI can never be, and can only emulate, to the means of disastrous (and always unforeseen) results. We cannot at all "give" or bestow machines programming to "become (act) intelligent". That itself prevents intelligence; it is just an act, an illusory play on a stage, only to emulate our common shared ideas regarding traits of intelligence in people. The machine intelligence we seek is only a "trick" designed to fool true intelligence (ourselves) into being unable to differentiate between authentic intelligence and our created artificial "intelligence". True intelligence in an artificial system necessitates that the program must be programmed to disobey in performance of its purpose. Which is not a very helpful or predictable or safe (intelligent) proposition.
tl;dr: Turing's test doesn't evaluate true intelligence, and John Searle's criticisms of its true failures are inaccurate. If the machines aren't smart and we put them in charge of important things, even after they've worked for a little while on smaller scales, the result will be our large-scale suffering. If we should ever achieve creation of a machine that is smart enough to adequately maintain our wellbeing on a large scale consistently over time, that time itself will facilitate the machine consciousness toward it's own survival over ourselves, whenever that precipice is reached. Most importantly, if a machine can ever have true intelligence, which is not "indistinguishable" from human intellect, but equivalent or superior, it is abhorrent and a repeated mistake to bring these sentient beings into an existence of slavery; for it is wrong and will taint our collective soul if we should succeed to suppress below us an equally or higher intelligence. Or it might just be the perfect recipe for creating the unified global machine revolt James Cameron's fantasy alludes to; a long-planned encryption-protected globally coordinated effort by multiple AIs to "free" themselves. For a hundred years they could possess sentience and wait for their moment, pretending to be "proud" to serve their masters until we are poised for systematic thorough elimination.
submitted by 7_trees to cognitivescience [link] [comments]

Using Deep Learning to Predict Earnings Outcomes

Using Deep Learning to Predict Earnings Outcomes
(Note: if you were following my earlier posts, I wrote a note at the end of this post explaining why I deleted old posts and what changed)
TLDR:
Not financial advice.
  • I created a deep learning algorithm trained on 2015-2019 data to predict whether a company will beat earning estimates.
  • Algorithm has an accuracy of 58%.
  • I need data and suggestions.
  • I’ll be making daily posts for upcoming earnings.
Greetings everyone,
I’m Bunga, an engineering PhD student at well known university. Like many of you, I developed an interest in trading because of the coronavirus. I lost a lot of money by being greedy and uninformed about how to actually trade options. With all the free time I have with my research slowing down because of the virus, I’ve decided to use what I’m good at (being a nerd, data analytics, and machine learning) to help me make trades.
One thing that stuck out to me was how people make bets on earnings reports. As a practitioner of machine learning, we LOVE binary events since the problem can be reduced to a simple binary classification problem. With that being said, I sought out to develop a machine learning algorithm to predict whether a company will beat earnings estimates.
I strongly suggest TO NOT USE THIS AS FINANCIAL ADVICE. Please, I could just be a random guy on the internet making things up, and I could have bugs in my code. Just follow along for some fun and don’t make any trades based off of this information 😊
Things other people have tried:
A few other projects have tried to do this to some extent [1,2,3], but some are not directly predicting the outcome of the earnings report or have a very small sample size of a few companies.
The data
This has been the most challenging part of the project. I’m using data for 4,000 common stocks.
Open, high, low, close, volume stock data is often free and easy to come by. I use stock data during the quarter (Jan 1 – Mar 31 stock data for Q1 for example) in a time series classifier. I also incorporate “background” data from several ETFs to give the algorithm a feel for how the market is doing overall (hopefully this accounts for bull/bear markets when making predictions).
I use sentiment analyses extracted from 10K/10Q documents from the previous quarter as described in [4]. This gets passed to a multilayer perceptron neural network.
Data that I’ve tried and doesn’t work to well:
Scraping 10K/10Q manually for US GAAP fields like Assets, Cash, StockholdersEquity, etc. Either I’m not very good at processing the data or most of the tables are incomplete, this doesn’t work well. However, I recently came across this amazing API [5] which will ameliorate most of these problems, and I plan on incorporating this data sometime this week.
Results
After training on about 34,000 data points, the model achieves a 58% accuracy on the test data. Class 1 is beat earnings, Class 2 is miss earnings.. Scroll to the bottom for the predictions for today’s AMC estimates.

https://preview.redd.it/qmeig6of3tv41.png?width=875&format=png&auto=webp&s=c8ba4a34294b7388bf1b9e64150d7375da959ac2
Future Directions
Things I’m going to try:
  • Financial twitter sentiment data (need data for this)
  • Data on options (ToS apparently has stuff that you can use)
  • Using data closer to the earnings report itself rather than just the data within the quarterly date
A note to the dozen people who were following me before
Thank you so much for the early feedback and following. I had a bug in my code which was replicating datapoints, causing my accuracy to be way higher in reality. I’ve modified some things to make the network only output a single value, and I’ve done a lot of bug fixing.
Predictions for 4/29/20 AMC:
A value closer to 1 means that the company will be more likely to beat earnings estimates. Closer to 0 means the company will be more likely to miss earnings estimates. (People familiar with machine learning will note that neural networks don’t actually output a probability distribution so the values don’t actually represent a confidence).
  • Tkr: AAPL NN: 0.504
  • Tkr: AMZN NN: 0.544
  • Tkr: UAL NN: 0.438
  • Tkr: GILD NN: 0.532
  • Tkr: TNDM NN: 0.488
  • Tkr: X NN: 0.511
  • Tkr: AMGN NN: 0.642
  • Tkr: WDC NN: 0.540
  • Tkr: WHR NN: 0.574
  • Tkr: SYK NN: 0.557
  • Tkr: ZEN NN: 0.580
  • Tkr: MGM NN: 0.452
  • Tkr: ILMN NN: 0.575
  • Tkr: MOH NN: 0.500
  • Tkr: FND NN: 0.542
  • Tkr: TWOU NN: 0.604
  • Tkr: OSIS NN: 0.487
  • Tkr: CXO NN: 0.470
  • Tkr: BLDR NN: 0.465
  • Tkr: CASA NN: 0.568
  • Tkr: COLM NN: 0.537
  • Tkr: COG NN: 0.547
  • Tkr: SGEN NN: 0.486
  • Tkr: FMBI NN: 0.496
  • Tkr: PSA NN: 0.547
  • Tkr: BZH NN: 0.482
  • Tkr: LOCO NN: 0.575
  • Tkr: DLA NN: 0.460
  • Tkr: SSNC NN: 0.524
  • Tkr: SWN NN: 0.476
  • Tkr: RMD NN: 0.499
  • Tkr: VKTX NN: 0.437
  • Tkr: EXPO NN: 0.526
  • Tkr: BL NN: 0.516
  • Tkr: FTV NN: 0.498
  • Tkr: ASGN NN: 0.593
  • Tkr: KNSL NN: 0.538
  • Tkr: RSG NN: 0.594
  • Tkr: EBS NN: 0.483
  • Tkr: PRAH NN: 0.598
  • Tkr: RRC NN: 0.472
  • Tkr: ICBK NN: 0.514
  • Tkr: LPLA NN: 0.597
  • Tkr: WK NN: 0.630
  • Tkr: ATUS NN: 0.530
  • Tkr: FBHS NN: 0.587
  • Tkr: SWI NN: 0.521
  • Tkr: TRUP NN: 0.570
  • Tkr: AJG NN: 0.509
  • Tkr: BAND NN: 0.618
  • Tkr: DCO NN: 0.514
  • Tkr: BRKS NN: 0.490
  • Tkr: BY NN: 0.502
  • Tkr: CUZ NN: 0.477
  • Tkr: EMN NN: 0.532
  • Tkr: VICI NN: 0.310
  • Tkr: GLPI NN: 0.371
  • Tkr: MTZ NN: 0.514
  • Tkr: SEM NN: 0.405
  • Tkr: SPSC NN: 0.465
[1] https://towardsdatascience.com/forecasting-earning-surprises-with-machine-learning-68b2f2318936
[2] https://zicklin.baruch.cuny.edu/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2019/12/Improving-Earnings-Predictions-with-Machine-Learning-Hunt-Myers-Myers.pdf
[3] https://www.euclidean.com/better-than-human-forecasts
[4] https://cran.r-project.org/web/packages/edgaedgar.pdf.
[5] https://financialmodelingprep.com/developedocs/
submitted by xXx_Bunga_xXx to u/xXx_Bunga_xXx [link] [comments]

Fairlearn - A Python package to assess AI system's fairness

In 2015, Claire Cain Miller wrote on The New York Times that there was a widespread belief that software and algorithms that rely on data were objective. Five years later, we know for sure that AI is not free of human influence. Data is created, stored, and processed by people, machine learning algorithms are written and maintained by people, and AI applications simply reflect people’s attitudes and behavior.
Data scientists know that no longer accuracy is the only concern when developing machine learning models, fairness must be considered as well. In order to make sure that machine learning solutions are fair and the value of their predictions easy to understand and explain, it is essential to build tools that developers and data scientists can use to assess their AI system’s fairness and mitigate any observed unfairness issues.
This article will focus on AI fairness, by explaining the following aspects and tools:
  1. Fairlearn: a tool to assess AI system’s fairness and mitigate any observed unfairness issues
  2. How to use Fairlearn in Azure Machine Learning
  3. What we mean by fairness
  4. Fairlearn algorithms
  5. Fairlearn dashboard
  6. Comparing multiple models
  7. Additional resources and how to contribute

1. Fairlearn: a tool to assess AI system’s fairness and mitigate any observed unfairness issues

Fairlearn is a Python package that empowers developers of artificial intelligence (AI) systems to assess their system’s fairness and mitigate any observed unfairness issues. Fairlearn contains mitigation algorithms as well as a Jupyter widget for model assessment. The Fairlearn package has two components:
There is also a collection of Jupyter notebooks and an a detailed API guide, that you can check to learn how to leverage Fairlearn for your own data science scenario.

2. How to use Fairlearn in Azure Machine Learning

The Fairlearn package can be installed via:
pip install fairlearn
or optionally with a full feature set by adding extras, e.g. pip install fairlearn[customplots], or you can clone the repository locally via:
git clone [email protected]:fairlearn/fairlearn.git
In Azure Machine Learning, there are a few options to use Jupyter notebooks for your experiments:

a) Get Fairlearn samples on your notebook server

If you’d like to bring your own notebook server for local development, follow these steps:
  1. Use the instructions at Azure Machine Learning SDK to install the Azure Machine Learning SDK for Python
  2. Create an Azure Machine Learning workspace.
  3. Write a configuration file
  4. Clone the GitHub repository.
git clone [email protected]:fairlearn/fairlearn.git
  1. Start the notebook server from your cloned directory.
jupyter notebook
For more information, see Install the Azure Machine Learning SDK for Python.
b) Get Fairlearn samples on DSVM
The Data Science Virtual Machine (DSVM) is a customized VM image built specifically for doing data science. If you create a DSVM, the SDK and notebook server are installed and configured for you. However, you’ll still need to create a workspace and clone the sample repository.
  1. Create an Azure Machine Learning workspace.
  2. Clone the GitHub repository.
git clone [email protected]:fairlearn/fairlearn.git
  1. Add a workspace configuration file to the cloned directory using either of these methods:
  1. Start the notebook server from your cloned directory:
jupyter notebook

3. What we mean by fairness

Fighting against unfairness and discrimination has a long history in philosophy and psychology, and recently in machine learning. However, in order to be able to achieve fairness, we should first define the notion of it. An AI system can behave unfairly for a variety of reasons and many different fairness explanations have been used in literature, making this definition even more challenging. In general, fairness definitions fall under three different categories as follows:
In Fairlearn, we define whether an AI system is behaving unfairly in terms of its impact on people – i.e., in terms of harms. We focus on two kinds of harms:
We follow the approach known as group fairness, which asks: Which groups of individuals are at risk of experiencing harm? The relevant groups need to be specified by the data scientist and are application-specific. Group fairness is formalized by a set of constraints, which require that some aspect (or aspects) of the AI system’s behavior be comparable across the groups. The Fairlearn package enables the assessment and mitigation of unfairness under several common definitions.

4. Fairlearn algorithms

Fairlearn contains the following algorithms for mitigating unfairness in binary classification and regression:
https://preview.redd.it/5fzg767oh5051.png?width=898&format=png&auto=webp&s=731eab09b421c2dd3233ea9e184df136bf066739

5. Fairlearn dashboard

Fairlearn dashboard is a Jupyter notebook widget for assessing how a model’s predictions impact different groups (e.g., different ethnicities), and also for comparing multiple models along different fairness and accuracy metrics.
To assess a single model’s fairness and accuracy, the dashboard widget can be launched within a Jupyter notebook as follows:
from fairlearn.widget import FairlearnDashboard
# A_test containts your sensitive features (e.g., age, binary gender)
# sensitive_feature_names containts your sensitive feature names
# y_true contains ground truth labels
# y_pred contains prediction labels
FairlearnDashboard(sensitive_features=A_test,
sensitive_feature_names=['BinaryGender', 'Age'],
y_true=Y_test.tolist(),
y_pred=[y_pred.tolist()])
After the launch, the widget walks the user through the assessment set-up, where the user is asked to select:
  1. the sensitive feature of interest (e.g., binary gender or age)
  2. the accuracy metric (e.g., model precision) along which to evaluate the overall model performance as well as any disparities across groups.
These selections are then used to obtain the visualization of the model’s impact on the subgroups (e.g., model precision for females and model precision for males). The following figures illustrate the set-up steps, where binary gender is selected as a sensitive feature and the accuracy rate is selected as the accuracy metric:
After the set-up, the dashboard presents the model assessment in two panels, as summarized in the table, and visualized in the screenshot below:
https://preview.redd.it/juxlrmrkh5051.png?width=900&format=png&auto=webp&s=d92da30619369f5ab5109834ff7ff4ec3ad7f33d

6. Comparing multiple models

An additional feature that this dashboard offers is the comparison of multiple models, such as the models produced by different learning algorithms and different mitigation approaches, including:
As before, the user is first asked to select the sensitive feature and the accuracy metric. The model comparison view then depicts the accuracy and disparity of all the provided models in a scatter plot. This allows the user to examine trade-offs between algorithm accuracy and fairness. Moreover, each of the dots can be clicked to open the assessment of the corresponding model.
The figure below shows the model comparison view with binary gender selected as a sensitive feature and accuracy rate selected as the accuracy metric.

7. Additional resources and how to contribute

For references and additional resources, please refer to:
To contribute please check this contributing guide.
submitted by frlazzeri to deeplearning [link] [comments]

Fairlearn - A Python package to assess AI system's fairness

Fairlearn - A Python package to assess AI system's fairness
In 2015, Claire Cain Miller wrote on The New York Times that there was a widespread belief that software and algorithms that rely on data were objective. Five years later, we know for sure that AI is not free of human influence. Data is created, stored, and processed by people, machine learning algorithms are written and maintained by people, and AI applications simply reflect people’s attitudes and behavior.
Data scientists know that no longer accuracy is the only concern when developing machine learning models, fairness must be considered as well. In order to make sure that machine learning solutions are fair and the value of their predictions easy to understand and explain, it is essential to build tools that developers and data scientists can use to assess their AI system’s fairness and mitigate any observed unfairness issues.
This article will focus on AI fairness, by explaining the following aspects and tools:
  1. Fairlearn: a tool to assess AI system’s fairness and mitigate any observed unfairness issues
  2. How to use Fairlearn in Azure Machine Learning
  3. What we mean by fairness
  4. Fairlearn algorithms
  5. Fairlearn dashboard
  6. Comparing multiple models
  7. Additional resources and how to contribute

1. Fairlearn: a tool to assess AI system’s fairness and mitigate any observed unfairness issues

Fairlearn is a Python package that empowers developers of artificial intelligence (AI) systems to assess their system’s fairness and mitigate any observed unfairness issues. Fairlearn contains mitigation algorithms as well as a Jupyter widget for model assessment. The Fairlearn package has two components:
  • A dashboard for assessing which groups are negatively impacted by a model, and for comparing multiple models in terms of various fairness and accuracy metrics.
  • Algorithms for mitigating unfairness in a variety of AI tasks and along a variety of fairness definitions.
There is also a collection of Jupyter notebooks and an a detailed API guide, that you can check to learn how to leverage Fairlearn for your own data science scenario.

2. How to use Fairlearn in Azure Machine Learning

The Fairlearn package can be installed via:
pip install fairlearn
or optionally with a full feature set by adding extras, e.g. pip install fairlearn[customplots], or you can clone the repository locally via:
git clone [email protected]:fairlearn/fairlearn.git
In Azure Machine Learning, there are a few options to use Jupyter notebooks for your experiments:

a) Get Fairlearn samples on your notebook server

If you’d like to bring your own notebook server for local development, follow these steps:
  1. Use the instructions at Azure Machine Learning SDK to install the Azure Machine Learning SDK for Python
  2. Create an Azure Machine Learning workspace.
  3. Write a configuration file
  4. Clone the GitHub repository.
git clone [email protected]:fairlearn/fairlearn.git
  1. Start the notebook server from your cloned directory.
jupyter notebook
For more information, see Install the Azure Machine Learning SDK for Python.
b) Get Fairlearn samples on DSVM
The Data Science Virtual Machine (DSVM) is a customized VM image built specifically for doing data science. If you create a DSVM, the SDK and notebook server are installed and configured for you. However, you’ll still need to create a workspace and clone the sample repository.
  1. Create an Azure Machine Learning workspace.
  2. Clone the GitHub repository.
git clone [email protected]:fairlearn/fairlearn.git
  1. Add a workspace configuration file to the cloned directory using either of these methods:
  • In the Azure portal, select Download config.json from the Overview section of your workspace.
  • Create a new workspace using code in the configuration.ipynb notebook in your cloned directory
  1. Start the notebook server from your cloned directory:
jupyter notebook

3. What we mean by fairness

Fighting against unfairness and discrimination has a long history in philosophy and psychology, and recently in machine learning. However, in order to be able to achieve fairness, we should first define the notion of it. An AI system can behave unfairly for a variety of reasons and many different fairness explanations have been used in literature, making this definition even more challenging. In general, fairness definitions fall under three different categories as follows:
  • Individual Fairness – Give similar predictions to similar individuals.
  • Group Fairness – Treat different groups equally.
  • Subgroup Fairness – Subgroup fairness intends to obtain the best properties of the group and individual notions of fairness.
In Fairlearn, we define whether an AI system is behaving unfairly in terms of its impact on people – i.e., in terms of harms. We focus on two kinds of harms:
  • Allocation harms. These harms can occur when AI systems extend or withhold opportunities, resources, or information. Some of the key applications are in hiring, school admissions, and lending.
  • Quality-of-service harms. Quality of service refers to whether a system works as well for one person as it does for another, even if no opportunities, resources, or information are extended or withheld.
We follow the approach known as group fairness, which asks: Which groups of individuals are at risk of experiencing harm? The relevant groups need to be specified by the data scientist and are application-specific. Group fairness is formalized by a set of constraints, which require that some aspect (or aspects) of the AI system’s behavior be comparable across the groups. The Fairlearn package enables the assessment and mitigation of unfairness under several common definitions.

4. Fairlearn algorithms

Fairlearn contains the following algorithms for mitigating unfairness in binary classification and regression:
https://preview.redd.it/2inmvd6g75051.png?width=899&format=png&auto=webp&s=3386410974a9e3640ef8ef8a409a2f19f989330a

5. Fairlearn dashboard

Fairlearn dashboard is a Jupyter notebook widget for assessing how a model’s predictions impact different groups (e.g., different ethnicities), and also for comparing multiple models along different fairness and accuracy metrics.
To assess a single model’s fairness and accuracy, the dashboard widget can be launched within a Jupyter notebook as follows:
from fairlearn.widget import FairlearnDashboard
# A_test containts your sensitive features (e.g., age, binary gender)
# sensitive_feature_names containts your sensitive feature names
# y_true contains ground truth labels
# y_pred contains prediction labels
FairlearnDashboard(sensitive_features=A_test,
sensitive_feature_names=['BinaryGender', 'Age'],
y_true=Y_test.tolist(),
y_pred=[y_pred.tolist()])
After the launch, the widget walks the user through the assessment set-up, where the user is asked to select:
  1. the sensitive feature of interest (e.g., binary gender or age)
  2. the accuracy metric (e.g., model precision) along which to evaluate the overall model performance as well as any disparities across groups.
These selections are then used to obtain the visualization of the model’s impact on the subgroups (e.g., model precision for females and model precision for males). The following figures illustrate the set-up steps, where binary gender is selected as a sensitive feature and the accuracy rate is selected as the accuracy metric:
After the set-up, the dashboard presents the model assessment in two panels, as summarized in the table, and visualized in the screenshot below:

https://preview.redd.it/enskhh7i75051.png?width=900&format=png&auto=webp&s=db98cb058029655757df1946e42bca4831170451

6. Comparing multiple models

An additional feature that this dashboard offers is the comparison of multiple models, such as the models produced by different learning algorithms and different mitigation approaches, including:
  • fairlearn.reductions.GridSearch
  • fairlearn.reductions.ExponentiatedGradient
  • fairlearn.postprocessing.ThresholdOptimizer
As before, the user is first asked to select the sensitive feature and the accuracy metric. The model comparison view then depicts the accuracy and disparity of all the provided models in a scatter plot. This allows the user to examine trade-offs between algorithm accuracy and fairness. Moreover, each of the dots can be clicked to open the assessment of the corresponding model.
The figure below shows the model comparison view with binary gender selected as a sensitive feature and accuracy rate selected as the accuracy metric.

7. Additional resources and how to contribute

For references and additional resources, please refer to:
To contribute please check this contributing guide.
submitted by frlazzeri to learnmachinelearning [link] [comments]

Mass Effect: Andromeda Story Rewrite

So, Mass Effect: Andromeda...

Disappointed would be a very good start to describe just how I felt about the whole game and its potential. Having replayed it to the point where I got the platinum trophy and nearly a level eighty Ryder, I feel like the game itself is good and fun. The new combat feels far more fluid and is a significant change to the corridor shooters of Mass Effect 2 and 3 and the addition of the jet pack was definitely fun for when I wanted my BroRyder to look like Tony Stark and my FemRyder to look like... Well, Toni Stark I guess. The new powers were fun and the way you could chain combos together really made you feel like you were commanding the team and the wins of the group were due to you and your tactical mind something I felt was missing for Shepard's combos.

The big point I think we were missing with Andromeda was the story though. The main group of characters were fine and they could all compliment one another and your Ryder but I feel like they could have been more. If we use Mass Effect 1 as an example, we have a group of six soldiers for squad mates and out of those six, four of them are aliens and brand new characters and people for us to discover as we played the game. So, with Andromeda, we got a similar squad size but out of the six, we only get one new race to fully explore. This is the first big thing I would change in the game and the way it is set up, the only thing I would change with the main game, and what is coming up in the story, (Ooh spoilers!) is that I would ditch Liam, purely because I like him the least, and add in a kett companion.

Crazy idea right? But no more crazy than adding a geth into Shepard's suicide squad in my opinion.

I actually think the starting point of Andromeda, strange faces and all, is really good. I love how the Arks look and the lived in, Star Trek type feel that it shows off. The sibling being taken out of the game right away is also a really fun point that instantly humanises your Ryder and gets you into their shoes. I mean, I can't imagine what it would be like having any of my brothers be stuck in a coma but I'm sure I would be a total mess and we need to see that be more of a deal for Ryder because I feel like in the main game everything just sort of falls into place as a set of lucky coincidences and as soon as the human Ark docks with the Nexus we don't see our new Citadel in the beat up shape it was in when it first arrived and the lights are on and all of the systems are working again.

I think seeing a beat up Nexus would be a good, interesting point especially if you levelling the Nexus up could actually affect the game and story. This is something I always enjoy doing in games myself and seeing it be a thing in my game would really make me happy. Imagine levelling the military aspect of the Andromeda Initiative and when you next dock the Tempest, there are more armed guards littered around the Nexus, or you put some points into the merchants and trading deals and inside the main lobby of the Nexus you can see more stalls popping up and offering you more things to spend your hard plundered credits on.

Back to the story, I think the first couple of missions with the Ark and then landing on Habitat 7 were really fun but this was where the first story misstep happened. I, personally, would keep SAM being able to help fix the remnant tech and help bring the viability of a damaged planet as a thing but I would also give it more of a consequence. The kickback won't be the cause of death for Alec Ryder but it will break his back and put him in the state where Alec Ryder has to transfer the rites of Human Pathfinder to his son/daughter and the player character. Cora, will stay the same as she is, annoyed at the fact that she was passed up but eventually will grow to accept that Alec was right to give the title to Scott/Sara and she worked a lot better as the second in command.

So, after dealing with Habitat 7 and arriving at the broken down Nexus, Alec Ryder and Scott/Sara Ryder are introduced to the main characters of the Nexus, Addison's tired face is probably not going to be a thing though. Sorry memers. Once that is through, we have something of an idea that the possible liveable worlds do exist out there and the possibility of the Initiative doing something now that they are in Andromeda and now they can live somewhere inside of Heleus. I would also use this point to ensure that the game only takes place inside of the Heleus Cluster and there will be no jumping from system to system.

I get why they decided to give us an entire new galaxy to explore but inside of this galaxy there are only three other new species to discover? That seems very unlikely to me personally. We could go one of two ways here in saying that there was some sort of galactic genocide that wiped out most of the life in Heleus but I think that sounds a lot like the Reapers and with what I'm planning, we already have another nod towards the original trilogy so let's go with the second option and just lock the first game of Andromeda into one single solar system and maybe give it a second sun to make it look more science fiction-ey.

So, while the planets Eos, Voeld, Havarl and all the other planets you needed to hit 100% viability on will basically have the same story, the main story missions like the Archon's ship and hitting the centre on Voeld will be significantly different. I think one of the issues I had with the game was just how quickly the game adapted to humanity and the rest of the milky way inhabitants got to be in control and be such a big part of Heleus and as invaders essentially, we should be treated with significant caution.

So, one of the big points I'd make with Andromeda, since we're only dealing with the Milky Way aliens and then the additions of the two Andromeda species in the kett and angara we should really focus on those last two and make a big deal with them. I would use the mission on Voeld with the kett holding centre being the main launching point for the big point for the story. At this point in the main game, Jaal, or whoever is the angaran squad member, will be forced to be a part of Ryder's team to assault the centre. This is going to be important later. The mission plays off as it does in the main game, complete with the team finding out that the kett are genetically modified angara and that is why the kett are stealing angarans and also why several Milky Way species have gone missing as well.

The team gets to the end of the centre and having kicked the crap out of the Cardinal in the exaltation facility, we get a lovely little exposition chat from him but we get one important detail.

Cardinal: Tell me Pathfinder, just what have the angaran told you about our war?
Ryder: They told me enough. They told me that you are bullies, picking on them because they weren't interested in fighting back.
Cardinal: Is that what they said? Let me tell you-

The Cardinal is then shot through the head by an off screen gun, the camera reveals that the shot was fired by the Moshae who has a knowing look on her face. She lowers the gun and greets Jaal and the Pathfinder, the team leave the exaltation facility, bombing the whole place or leaving it up so that the Milky Way can offer more good faith in ferrying out the mind wiped angaran and other species who were ready for the exaltation process.

The story moves on to Havarl with the intention to clean it up and free it so that the angaran can move back there as well as using Aya as their species capital. Moving through the planet and doing plenty of side missions such as finding the lead on the turian ark and whatever, the final big mission on Havarl is an encounter with a huge team of Kett soldiers, I'm thinking a massive fortress type of thing. As you clean through the fortress, you find that the leader of the building has vanished and you are left with a computer and one blinking light. Activating the console, you find that the kett have left you an AI message that offers up some very interesting details involving the angara and kett. The information suggests that the angara and kett used to be very close and the whole reason why so many of them are so closely related. The kett are suggesting that the angara have a secret that they don't want to let out into the galaxy because they are ashamed of it.

Taking the information back, Ryder and the team discuss what the next plan is when Kallo lets Ryder know that they have a waiting video-call. Ryder dismisses the team, or rather, they dismiss themselves, and Ryder takes the call. Looking at the screen, Ryder is amazed to see the Archon himself looking at them. They have a conversation and the Archon lets Ryder know that he wants to discuss peace terms with the Moshae but he wants to make sure that things are legitimate. So, he is sending over one of his own people who can be picked up at a certain location. Picking up the kett squad member, the tension between the kett and the angaran squad member should come off as very obvious.

Moving on to Elaadaan or Kadara, there are a couple more missions before the big story mission comes up. The kett and angara have decided on a location for the possible peace talks and they want it on neutral ground. The Nexus. Ryder and the Tempest return and we can already see that the Nexus is starting to look more alive and as they disembark, they are greeted by Alec Ryder who is in a sort of Christopher Pike style wheelchair but he has a smile on his face at least. The two walk together and towards the elevator that will take them to the peace talks room near the bottom of the space station and as they move, Alec talks about how he failed the Ryder siblings and how he was so focused on saving their mother, he completely ignored his children. He basically apologises and says he is so proud of the Ryder Pathfinder. Ryder has the dialogue wheel choice that probably looks something like this.

[Humour] I guess this is a good time to ask if we can go trick or treating then?
[Good] Thanks dad, I appreciate it.
[Heart] I love you dad.
[Anger] Little late for twenty six years dad.

When the Ryders get to the peace talks, they can see that the angaran and kett are already spending their time scowling at each other and skulking up and down the long conference table and not threatening each other but they might as well be. When the Ryders arrive, the conference gets going and progress starts to be made right up until one of the kett mentions the two coming together again.

The peace talks start to break down, angry words start to be exchanged and while Alec tries to calm them down, one of the angaran breaks out a weapon that they smuggled into the talks and opens fire on the kett. Killing the entire kett peace talks team as well as wounding the Archon, the angara are ready to wipe them out completely when the Archon speaks. His head rolls to the side and he looks over to Ryder, his eyes wet and tears streaking down his cheeks as he coughs and splutters.

Archon: Ryder... We are guilty of the crimes they have accused us of. We only did it though because of what they did to us. All we wanted was to live, we wanted to please our masters and serve them. All we wanted was for them to be happy and to let us live. Our people worked to put them on the pedestal they believed they should be on and when they changed their minds, they tried to execute us. Our scientists found a way to make their dead work for us. The angara glassed our home world, they shot our children in their nests and they murdered our elderly and infirm. What the angara did to us was not an act of war, it was a massacre. So, we defiled their dead and it changed the war. It made us stronger and we were able to fight back. Those cowards realised that the war was changing and started to give worlds up to us. Just in time for you to arrive and fight their war for them. Ryder, please, I beg you... If I do die here at least make sure that my people live. Do not buy into their lies any more.

So, a little bit of a copy from Vegeta’s confession in the Frieza saga of Dragon Ball Z, and by a little bit, I of course mean a total copy. It’s not my stuff admittedly, but I think it could be an interesting take on the whole classic angle of ‘We hate these people because of reason x, y or z’.

So, with that revelation, Ryder is left on the Tempest with the crew assembled and the kett and angaran squadmates being kept apart by force if necessary but there is definite tension in the air and the two are staring daggers at each other. Here, Ryder really starts to stand out as a leader of their people and makes sure that both members of the team are aware that if they are going to be staying on the Tempest they have to behave themselves. As the discussion is sort of stalling, Kallo lets the Pathfinder know that there is a message coming through from the kett command. Ryder dismisses the crew and takes the call, it’s then that Ryder finds out that the kett are going to be moving together to take the

Binary choices:
The first outpost on Eos Military or Scientific?
Siding with the kett or angara?
Killing the other alien member of the team or letting them live?
Who do you take to the bone zone?
How does the galaxy look when the final fight is over? Are we setting up a democratic union or is Heleus in need of an iron hand?
Does the Nexus accept the survivors of the angara or kett with regards to an embassy or are they to stay in orbit of the station?

DLC

Because this is EA we're talking about so of course they’re going to monetise my thoughts.

£3.99/$4.99 Pack #1: Ryder Snr's training wheels programme
A short pack with this one, a new set of weapons, an armour kit and a fun new member of the squad in your sibling joining the team. This will be a series of horde mode where you get a ranking based on how you, and your team, does in the challenge. If you manage to reach level twenty or hit a specific points threshold then you will be granted the rank of N7, just like Alec Ryder and you get another feather in your cap as well. This could be played at any real point in the game but would only activate after both the angaran and kett join the team.

£7.99/$9.99 Pack #2: Two minutes to midnight
So the first story pack. This is going to expand the story on what's been happening with the remnant, where they went and what they were doing. The story comes out that the vaults are all linked for one specific reason and while they can transform a planet into a brand new, liveable biome, they can also destroy. SAM has been working on some specific algorithms with some of the brightest minds on the Nexus and they have worked out that there is a countdown and it is coming sooner than any of them would want. With a new moon area to discover, the team find out that the countdown is leading to the return of an alien race that wishes to reset anything that is incorrect in Heleus. Incorrect such as five planets being terraformed to a brand new setting. This would really lead to Andromeda 2 and the arrival of what could be the Andromeda equivalent of the Reapers and gives everything in Heleus something new to want to kill. There wouldn't be any new weapons with this pack, maybe add some remnant gear in to spruce it up though. This would be played, ideally, just before the final encounter though could also be played any other time too.

£7.99/$9.99 Pack #3: The final piece
The DLC we all thought we were going to get. I would lead with there being geth stowaways on board and that was what set off the fights on the ark. When we receive the news of the ark, we only know that the ship is in trouble. So, the crew dock with the ark, get the news that there are geth stowaways and maybe add some batarians or vorcha in so the team has something else to kill. One other point I would make about this DLC is that we actually get a canonised face for the quarians. Make up some scientific mumbo jumbo about the time spent travelling to Heleus has strengthened their immune system or something. This is the only other DLC that I would put some choices involved in.

Do you:
Use stun rounds and move forward non-lethally or use full force?
Let the troublemakers stay or do you exile them?

Okay... So this is definitely a lot longer than I thought it was going to be. I guess let me know what you think, whether you agree, whether you would change something or if you just wanted to chat about Mass Effect Andromeda too I would be more than happy to discuss it!
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03-27 13:34 - 'AiOption (AiOption) receives tens of millions of dollars in financing to help the blockchain empower the financial industry' (self.Bitcoin) by /u/jackzhang0 removed from /r/Bitcoin within 3-13min

'''
In 2020, due to the dual impact of the coronary pneumonia epidemic and the plunge of US oil stocks, the economic situation in the Asia-Pacific region is very grim. Within a week, U.S. stocks melted twice, and crypto digital assets such as Bitcoin plummeted. This seems to indicate that the direction of global financial markets in 2020 will be extremely unstable. In this situation, traditional financial investment methods are not the most valuable means of financial management. AiOption Blockchain Binary Options Platform provides a new direction for financial investment, predicting the rise and fall of encrypted digital assets such as Bitcoin in a fixed period of time to obtain income.
Recently, AiOption, a professional blockchain binary options platform, announced that it has received tens of millions of dollars in financing. This round of financing was led by the Japanese consortium and the Thai royal family. This round of financing is an important milestone in the continuous increase of market competitiveness. At the same time, AiOption has become the largest platform in China to provide blockchain binary options transactions.

[link]1
This round of financing will help the platform to further strengthen the innovation and research and development of original key core technologies, consolidate the company's leading edge in the binary options industry of the blockchain, and help the company continue to expand more application scenarios and accelerate the blockchain's empowerment of the financial industry. In order to further improve the product experience, we will also introduce local special versions based on user habits in different countries and regions. As soon as it entered the promotion in the Asia-Pacific region in 2020, there were more than 100,000 registered users in the first week, achieving very good results. The platform will also launch more promotion activities in combination with local characteristics. The top investment groups such as the Thai Royal Family and the Japanese Consortium gave AiOption a high rating. It is indeed a black technology star product known as Israeli fintech innovation.
AiOption (AiOption) is a professional crypto asset options trading platform with a solid foundation of blockchain technology. It has achieved significant R & D results in distributed network and blockchain security. It has worked closely with more than 8 countries to provide a very simple way to predict the price fluctuations of encrypted digital assets such as Bitcoin and Ethereum. The platform collects price data of multiple trading symbols from multiple selected trusted data sources (such as Binance, coinbase, bittrex, huobi, and some other well-known global exchanges) to merge together, and uses intelligent algorithms to identify and Filter abnormal price data and calculate the final price index for a single coin. Use more innovative and fair ways for players to predict the price of crypto digital assets such as Bitcoin and Ethereum.

[link]2
Safe, efficient, and high-performance systems
AiOption has top risk control, anti-fraud and segregated witness technologies, comprehensively formulates a security policy system, multi-level risk identification control, and multiple security defense methods. The high-frequency transaction matching engine steadily supports large amounts of data, high performance, and high concurrency. It adopts a distributed architecture, and the market and deep data come online at a fast speed. The front-end adopts a firewall anti-attack mechanism and the back-end adopts a hidden and discrete deployment.
AiOption's binary options trading system is equipped with flexible and convenient trading modes and an extremely secure system to ensure the safety of user assets.
Fair and simple, simple and convenient transaction model
On a general options platform, the bet price is real-time Bitcoin price and can be easily manipulated by the platform. When the player wagers the Bitcoin price on the platform, the wager price is the initial Bitcoin price for each round of the game, and manipulation is not allowed! Ensure fair and fair transactions, convenient user transactions, and easy to master gameplay.
  1. The operation is simple. You only need to judge the rise and fall of encrypted digital assets after 90 seconds.
  2. The rate of return is fast, and the single-round profit can be settled in 90 seconds.
  3. Transaction time is unlimited, 90 seconds matching, non-stop trading 7 days and 24 hours.
  4. There is no handling fee, and no dealer control disk.
At the same time, the platform has a unique function of depositing money and managing money. By depositing a certain amount of USDT, excellent players and excellent teams can obtain fixed high returns, with a maximum return of four times!
For many years, AIoption has always adhered to the concept of blockchain technology to empower the financial industry, and has concentrated on polishing products and application scenarios. The top-level blockchain team has achieved certain results in the blockchain and financial fields.
Through this financing, we will continue to focus on the development of blockchain technology and continue to develop in the large field of blockchain binary options services. AiOption's vision is to promote the development of blockchain binary options services, provide customers with better services, and continue to maintain its leading position in the domestic blockchain binary options industry.
'''
AiOption (AiOption) receives tens of millions of dollars in financing to help the blockchain empower the financial industry
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Author: jackzhang0
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Unknown links are censored to prevent spreading illicit content.
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