Bitcoin: $1 million price not hard to see, says Raoul Pal

05-14 08:44 - 'CEO at Real Vision, Raoul Pal, Bets on Bitcoin Up 100x in Next Five Years!' ( by /u/dailyblockchain_news removed from /r/Bitcoin within 633-643min

CEO at Real Vision, Raoul Pal, Bets on Bitcoin Up 100x in Next Five Years!
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Author: dailyblockchain_news
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New Glassnode Report: Whales In HEAVY BTC Accumulation! + Raoul Pal Moves 25% Portfolio to Bitcoin!

New Glassnode Report: Whales In HEAVY BTC Accumulation! + Raoul Pal Moves 25% Portfolio to Bitcoin! submitted by Thornsb to BLOCKCHAINEDNews [link] [comments]

Crypto Tips - New Bitcoin Price Predictions are IN: Peter Brandt & Raoul Pal

Crypto Tips - New Bitcoin Price Predictions are IN: Peter Brandt & Raoul Pal submitted by Yanlii to cryptovideos [link] [comments]

RAOUL PAL: Bitcoin is a 'mania' - Business Insider - Business Insider - Bitcoin News

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Why is nobody talking about Coinstream?

I've been told from various people on this sub about the company called Coinstream, essentially owning the BTC protocol. Yet, all I see are more and more people joining the Bitcoin bandwagon now, mainstream people, people I follow for news are more and more opening up to the idea of Bitcoin.
None of them mention Coinstream. Most talk about the positive effects that Bitcoin could have, as if it was 2010 all over again. All of them talk about the potential, the potential of Blockchain, and so on, and it's all great, but nobody mentions this very important thing that is Coinstream, essentially running the entire protocol.
So all these people are positively talking about Bitcoin like some democratized currency as if we're in 2010 all over again but none of them mention this very major flaw.
One major proponent in particular is RealVision, who recently got on the Bitcoin-hype wagon and more specifically Raoul Pal. Clip after clip after clip, Bitcoin this, 50X that, and it's all great and I understand it. Bitcoin does/did have potential, but why aren't they talking about this massive flaw that basically created Bitcoin Cash and all these other forks. Is it just ignorance? Isn't it a huge thing to be ignorant of?
Who shills Bitcoin as a democratized, decentralized currency when it is at the hands of a massive company? This isn't the case with any other currency. Even the US Dollar has more democracy than this currency if what is the case about Coinstream is true.
So which is it? Am I just blowing Coinstream out of proportion and are these people right about Bitcoin? Or are they just ignorant? I'm subscribed to several trading-channels and all of them, when speaking about Bitcoin, don't even mention Coinstream, which is a big fucking deal. Why is this?
I don't attribute nefarious intent to these people. Raoul Pal's a great person, hard to reach so I can't ask him, but there are others, too. Bill Tai among others. Surely all these people can't be this ignorant to blindly believe something has this much potential when the fact that it's owned by a single company's out in the open? All it'd take would be a quick Google to shatter their optimism? Yet Raoul's invested like 25% of his portfolio in Bitcoin
Anyone know why this is the case? Love to know if we're not just blowing Coinstream out of proportion or if I've just misunderstood things?
They talk about BTC as a store of value, but even as a store of value it's void when one single company runs the currency? It's at their mercy?
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The World is F'ed . This former Goldman Sachs fund manager suggest allocating 25% in Bitcoin

[It is behind the pay wall :]

So copy / paste :

"The whole world's f---ed."
That's what Raoul Pal, the former hedge-fund manager who founded Real Vision, said on the "Lindzanity" podcast when he initially learned the coronavirus was uncontrolled and spreading rapidly.
"The moment the spread hit Iran ... and then Italy — that all happened over the span of three or four days — I was like: 'time to panic before everybody else,'" he said. "It's human behavior function. If the Chinese closed every single border and every city, everybody's going to do it."
To bring you up to speed, Pal retired at 36 after quitting jobs at Goldman Sachs and GLG Partners. He lives comfortably on a 140-person island in the Cayman Islands and spends his days writing market research, which comes with a hefty price tag of $40,000 per year.
"I said: 'Listen, this is the biggest economic event of all of our lifetimes — and it's coming'" he added. "And that was, in retrospect, the greatest call I've ever had."
But this isn't the first time Pal's nailed a prescient call. Back in October, he said the Federal Reserve needed to cut interest rates to zero and warned of negative interest rates in the US, both of which have materialized.
What's more, as the market was topping out in late February, Pal expressed his affinity for owning bonds — a trade that would've immensely rewarded investors who took his advice. He also warned that the implications from the coronavirus would be "meaningful and real."
That was before things really started to fall apart.
Today, Pal thinks the coronavirus will cause "the largest insolvency event in all history." And given his track record as of late, that's not reassuring.
"I think the balance of probabilities are that this is a much longer event — in terms of economic impacts — than anybody is pricing in," he said. "I think it's a huge societal change that's coming from all of this."
To Pal, the duration of the fallout stemming from the coronavirus is the key factor here — one that he thinks investors aren't paying enough attention to. In his mind, those who are a projecting sharp V-shaped recovery in the third and forth quarter are incorrect in their assumptions.
"Isolation is going to be a real event for a significant period of time," he said. "You've got a world that's going to be much more closed, and that's leading to complications in supply chains."
He added: "It makes people become more local."
Pal's prognostication echos that of billionaire "bond king" Jeffrey Gundlach. In a DoubleLine webcast earlier this week, Gundlach said "we're going to be getting much more, less-connected to globalization" and "we're going to be bringing manufacturing back and thinking about things in very different ways."
But the changes that Pal and Gundlach highlight don't happen overnight, which is why Pal thinks the fallout could worsen. Every day that the pandemic drags on is one less day without production and consumption. Then that, in turn, heightens bankruptcy risk.
With all of that under consideration, here's how Pal is positioning his portfolio to weather a deeper equity rout. Ideally, he'd like to get to the allocation below.

"So I'm now in the point of thinking we've got another 20% downside or so to come before we get the 3-, 4-month bounce of hope," he said. "For the average guy, this is a very, very, very difficult world we're going to go into — and I can't sugarcoat it because there is no nice answer."
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The White Dragon : A Canadian Dragon Portfolio

Alright guys, Ive been working on this for a while and a post on here by a guy describing his portfolio here was the final kick in the ass for me to put this together. I started writing this to summarize what Im doing for my friends who are beginners, and also for me to make some sense of it for myself
Hopefully parts of it are useful to you, and also ideally you guys can point out errors or have a suggestion or two. I'm posting this here as opposed to investing or canadianinvestor (blech) because they're just gonna tell me to buy an index fund.
This first section is a preamble describing the Canadian tax situation and why Im doing things the way that I am. Feel free to skip it if you dont care about that. Also, there might be mistake regarding what the laws are here so dont take my word for it and verify it for yourself please.
So here in Canada we have two types of registered accounts (theres actually more but whatver). There is the TFSA "Tax Free Savings Account", and RRSP "Registered Retirement Savings Account"
For the sake of simplicity, from the time you turn 18 you are allowed to deposit 5k (it changes year to year based on inflation etc)in each of them. That "room" accumulates retroactively, so if you haventdone anything and are starting today and you are 30 you have around 60k you can put in each of them. The prevailing wisdom is that you should max out the TFSA first and you'll see why in a minute.

TFSA is post tax deposits, with no capital gains or other taxes applied to selling your securities, dividends or anything else. You can withdraw your gains at any time, and the amount that you withdraw is added to the "room" you have for the next year. So lets say I maxed out my TFSA contributions and I take out 20k today, on January of next year I can put back in 20k plus the 5 or whatever they allow for that year. You can see how powerful this is. Theres a few limitations on what is eligable to be held in the TFSA such as bitcoin/bitcoin ETFs, overseas stocks that arent listed on NYSE, TSX, london and a few others. You can Buy to Open and Sell to Close call and put options as well as write Covered Calls.

The RRSP is pre-tax deposits and is a tax deferred scheme. You deposit to lower your income tax burden (and hopefully drop below a bracket) but once you retire you will be taxed on anything you pull out. Withdrawing early has huge penalties and isnt recommended. You are however allowed to borrow against it for a down payment as a first time home buyer. The strategy with these is that a youngperson entering the workforce is likely to be in a fairly low tax bracket and (hopefully) earns more money as they get older and more skilled so the RRSP has more value the greater your pre-taxincome is. You can also do this Self Directed. Its not relevant to this strategy but I included it for the sake of context.
Non registered accounts ( or any other situation, such as selling commercial real estate etc) is subject to a capital gains tax. In so far as I understand it, you add all your gains and losses up at the end of the year. If its a positive number, you cut that number IN HALF and add it to your regular pre-tax income. So if I made 60k from the dayjob and 20k on my margin account that adds up to 70k that I get taxed on. if its a loss, you carry that forward into the next year. Theres no distinction between long term and short term. Also physical PMs are treated differently and I'll fill that part in later once I have the details down.
The reason why all that babble is important is that my broker Questrade, which isnt as good as IB (the only real other option up here as far as Im aware) has one amazing feature that no other broker has: "Margin Power"
If you have a TFSA and a Margin account with them, you can link them together and have your securities in the TFSA collateralise your Margin account. Essentially, when it comes to the Maintenance Excess of the Margin Account QT doesnt care if its in the TFSA *or* the Margin!
You can see how powerful this is.
So as you can tell by the title, a lot of this is heavily inspired by Chris Cole's paper "The Allegory of the Hawk and the Serpent". You can read it here:
Between it, his interviews and my mediocre options skills at the time my mind was blown. Unfortunately I didnt know how to do the Long Volatility part until after the crash in March but I've since then had nothing but time to scour the internet and learn as much as I could.
The way I interpret this isnt necessarily "what you should have right now", but what abstracted model they were able to backtest that gave them the best performance over the 90 years. Also, a lot of my portfolio I already had before I started trying to build this.
As such my allocations dont match the proportions he gave. Not saying my allocations are better, just showing where they are at this time.
I'm going to describe how I do Long Volatility at the end rather than the beginning since the way *I* do it wont make sense until you see the rest of the portflio.

Physical PMs 22%
I'm not sure wether he intended this to be straight up physical gold or include miners and royalty streaming companies so I will just keep this as physical.
I consider Silver to be a non-expiring call option on gold, so that can live here too. I am actually *very* overweight silver and my strategy is to convert a large portion of it to gold (mostly my bars)
to gold as the ratio tightens up.
If youre into crypto, you can arguably say that has a place in this section.
If an ETF makes sense for part of your portfolio, I suggest the Sprott ones such as PHYS. Sprott is an honest business and they actually have the metal they say they have. If you have enough, you can redeem your shares from the Royal Canadian Mint. The only downside is that they dont have an options chain, so you cant sell covered calls etc. Simple enough I suppose.
One thing to bear in mind, there is a double edged sword with this class of assets. They're out of the system, theyre nobody's business but your own and theres no counter party. That
unfortunately means that you cant lever against it for margin or sell covered calls etc. You can still buy puts though (more on that later)

Commodity Trend (CTA) 10%
Patrick Ceresna gave a good presentation on what this strategy is. Until I watched this video I just thought it meant "buy commodities". A real CTA does this with futures also so aside from the way he showed, there are two other ETFs that are worth looking at.
COM - This is an explicit trend following ETF that follows a LONG/FLAT strategy instead of LONG/SHORT on a pile of commodity futures. So if they get a "sell" signal for oil or soybeans they sell what they have and go to cash.
COMT- Holds an assortment of different month futures in different commodities, as well as a *lot* of various related shares in producers. Its almost a one stop shop commodities portfolio. Pays a respectable dividend in December
If you want to break the "rules" of CTA, and include equities theres a few others that are also worth looking at
KOL- This is a coal ETF. The problems with it are that a lot of the holdings dont have much to do with coal. One of them is a tractor company. A lot of the companies are Chinese so theres a bit of a red flag.
Obviously Thermal Coal, the kind used for heating and powerplants isnt in vogue and wont be moving forward...but coking coal is used for steel manufacturing and that ain't going anywhere. The dividend is huge, pays out in December. A very very small position might be worth the risk.
Uranium- I'm in URA because thats the only way for me to get exposure to Kazatoprom (#1 producer), which is 20% of the holdings. The other 20% is Cameco (#2 producer)and then its random stuff.
Other than that I have shares in Denison which seems like its a good business with some interesting projects underway. I'm still studying the uranium space so I dont really have much to say about it of any value.
RSX- Russia large caps. If you dont want to pick between the myriad of undervalued, high dividend paying commodity companies that Russia has then just grab this. It only pays in December but it has a liquid options chain so you can do Covered Calls in the meantime if you want.
NTR- Nutrien, canadian company that was formed when two others merged. They are now the worlds largest potash producer. Pretty good dividend. They have some financial difficulties and the stocks been in a downtrend forever. I feel its a good candidate to watch or sell some puts on.
I'm trying to come up with a way to play agriculture since this new phase we're going to be entering is likely to cause huge food shortages.

EURN and NAT- I got in fairly early on the Tanker hype before it was even hype as a way to short oil but I got greedy and lost a lot of my gains. I pared down my position and I'm staying for the dividend.
If you get an oil sell signal, this might be a way to play that still.

Fixed Income/Bonds 10%

Now, I am not a bond expert but unless youre doing some wacky spreads with futures or whatever... I dont see much reason to buy government debt any more. If you are, youre basically betting that they take rates negative. Raoul Pal of Real Vision is pretty firm in his conviction that this will happen. I know better than to argue with him but I dont see risk/reward as being of much value.
HOWEVER, I found two interesting ETFs that seem to bring something to this portfolio
IVOL- This is run by Nancy Davis, and is comprised of TIPS bonds which are nominally inflation protected (doubt its real inflation but whatever) overlayed with some OTC options that are designed to pay off big if the Fed loses control of the long end of the yield curve, which is what might happen during a real inflation situation. Pays out a decent yield monthly
TAIL- This is a simpler portfolio of 10yr treasuries with ladder of puts on the SPX. Pays quarterly.

Equities 58% (shared with options/volatility below)
This is where it gets interesting, obviously most of this is in mining shares but before I get to those I found some interesting stuff that I'm intending to build up as I pare down my miners when the time comes to start doing that.
VIRT- I cant remember where I saw this, but people were talking about this as a volatility play. Its not perfect, but look at the chart compared to SPY. Its a HFT/market making operation, the wackier things get the more pennies they can scalp. A 4% dividend isnt shabby either.
FUND- This is an interesting closed end fund run by Whitney George, one of the principals at Sprott. He took it with him when he joined the company. Ive read his reports and interviews and I really like his approach to value and investing. He's kind of like if Warren Buffett was a gold bug. Theres 120 holdings in there, mostly small caps and very diverse...chicken factories, ball bearings all kinds of boring ass shit that nobody knows exists. Whats crucial is that most of it "needs to exist". Between him, his family and other people at Sprott they control 40% or so of the shares, so they definitely have skin in the game. Generous dividend.
ZIG- This is a "deep value" strategy fund, run by Tobias Carlisle. He has a fairly simple valuation formula called the Acquirer's Multiple that when he backtested it, is supposed to perform very well. He did an interview with Chris Cole on real Vision where he discusses how Value and Deep Value havent done well recently, but over the last 100 years have proven to be very viable strategies. If we feel that theres a new cycle brewing, then this strategy may work again moving forward.

I want to pause and point out something here, Chris Cole, Nassim Taleb and the guys at Mutiny Fund spend a lot of effort explaining that building a portfolio is a lot like putting together a good basketall team. They need to work together, and pick up each others slack
A lot of the ETFs I'm listing here are in many ways portfolios in and of themselves and are *actively managed*. I specifically chose them because they follow a methodology that I respect but I can't do myself because I dont have the skill, temperament or access to.
The next one is a hidden gem and ties into this. I'm not sure how much more upside there is in this one but man was I surprised.
SII- Sprott Inc. I *never* see people listing this stock in their PMs portfolios. A newsletter I'm subscribed to described this stock as the safest way to play junior miners. Their industry presence, intellectual capital and connections means that they get *the best* private placement deals in the best opportunities. I cant compete with a staff like theirs and I'm not going to try. I bought this at 2.50, and I liked the dividend. Since then they did a reverse split to get on the NYSE and like the day after the stock soared.
When it comes to mining ETFS I like GOAU and SILJ the best. None of their major holdings are dead weight companies that are only there because of market cap. I dont want Barrick in my portfolio etc.
SGDJ is a neat version of GDXJ.
Aside from that my individual miners/royalty companies are (no particular order)
RIO- Rio2 on the tsx, not rio tinto
Options/Volatility: varies
So this is where we get to the part about options, Volatility and how I do it. I started out in the options space with The Wheel strategy and the Tastytrade approach of selling premium. The spreads and puts I sell, are on shares listed above, in fact some of those I dont hold anymore.
Theres tons of stuff on this in thetagang and options so I wont go into a whole bunch (and you shouldnt be learning the mechanics from me anyway) but theres one thing I want to go over before it gets wild.
If I sell a Cash Secured Put, from a risk management perspective its identical to just buying 100 shares of the underlying security. You are equally "Short Vol" as well, it just that with options
its a little more explicit with the Greeks and everything. But if I use my margin that I was talking about earlier, then I can still collect the premium and the interest doesnt kick in unless Im actually assigned the shares.
But if I sell too many puts on KL or AG, and something happens where the miners get cut down (and lets be real, they all move together) my margin goes down and then I get assigned and account gets blown up
So what I need to do, is balance out the huge Short Vol situation in my portfolio, be net Long Vol and directly hedge my positions. Since the overwhelming majority of my equities are all tied to bullion this is actually a very easy thing to do.


So I set this up so the vast majority of my margin is tied up in these 1-2 or even 1-3 ratio put spreads that *I actually put on for a small credit*, and roll them every once in a while. I run them on SLV, and GDX.
I keep enough room on my margin so I can withstand a 10% drawdown before it sets off the long end of the spreads and then I can ride it out until it turns around and we keep the PM bull market going.
Theres another cool spread I've been using, which is a modified Jade Lizard; if already hold shares, I'll sell a put, sell a covered call, and use some of the premium to buy a longer dated call. Ive been running this on AG mostly.
I have a few more spreads I can show you but Im tired now so it'll have to wait for later.
As I said multiple times, I do intend to trim these miners later but now isnt the time for that IMO. I'm also monitoring this almost full time since I have an injury and have nothing better to do until I heal :p
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‘Perfect Wedge’ Makes $1M Bitcoin More Likely Than Ever — Raoul Pal

Well explained article in the cointelegraph. Check it out!
Something I will cover in my daily video tomorrow. What are your thoughts on this 'Perfect Wedge'?
submitted by tradingnomads to Bitcoin [link] [comments]

Bitcoin - Hedge bet?

Hi UKPF. Long time reader and lurker in the UK.
I've been following the stock markets and USA fed printing money like anything and can't help but feel 'nervous' shall we say.
I'm fairly new to investing, and don't have much tied up in the stock markets at all.
I was watching an interesting video the other day from Andrei Jikh on YouTube and he was speaking with Raoul Pal and whilst obviously his views are all subjective, I couldn't help but agree with most of what they were saying.
Ultimately, he suggested that having a hedge bet of some Cryptocurrency probably isn't the worst thing to do.
This appeals to me as I've always been interested in this (and Gold)
I'd like to get a small amount just to see what happens (noted there's a bitcoin halving coming up soon so DYOR on that!)
Does anyone know what the best platform is to do this in the UK? I already have a Coinbase account but looking at some of the fees (3.99%) seem fairly steep. There is Coinbase pro but I'm not entirely sure the ins and outs with that.
( Video for reference if anyone else was interested.
Thanks all. 👍
submitted by roadtoriches34 to UKPersonalFinance [link] [comments]

Top 3 Reasons for Bitcoin to Become a Global Safe-haven Asset

Top 3 Reasons for Bitcoin to Become a Global Safe-haven Asset

Bitcoin has risen for three reasons, and investors are increasingly considering seeking hedging in Bitcoin.
  1. Legal currency depreciation

The economist Raoul Pal said that as the US and other countries tried to boost economic growth by cutting interest rates, investors began pouring in gold, cash, government bonds and bitcoin as hedging instruments.

Pal warned that he is currently at the most important moment in his foreign exchange market for his 30-year career. The dollar seems to face an uncontrolled risk of appreciation.

Pal pointed out that the Fed's generalized trade-weighted US dollar index is close to 130 and is on the verge of breaking through a huge cup-shaped pattern.

At the same time, the ADXY (Asian Dollar) index is about to fall below the key trend line.

JPMorgan’s emerging market currency index is also underperforming and is about to fall to a new low.

Pal pointed out that at least seven other legal tender currencies are also depreciating, and the conclusion is that a stronger US dollar is triggering a massive wave of global deflation, which could lead to a financial crisis. However, the optimistic side is that this may be very beneficial for bitcoin prices.

  1. Bitcoin is increasingly irrelevant to traditional markets

As central banks show that they will continue to loosen monetary policy, investors are becoming more and more nervous. Later, the Fed announced a rate cut of 25 basis points.

According to the latest data from SFOX, Bitcoin has the lowest correlation with traditional markets.

Just recently, the Bank of Thailand cut interest rates by 25 basis points, the first time since 2015. The New Zealand central bank also cut 50 basis points, which surprised many investors.

In addition, the Bank of India also cut interest rates by 35 basis points.

It is worth noting that John M. A chart published by Spallanzani shows that in the past few years, the interest rate of the Bank of India seems to be inversely related to the price of Bitcoin.

Interestingly, in the past few years, the rate hike seems to coincide with the bottom of the bitcoin price, and vice versa.

3, Bitcoin can provide asymmetric returns

Other analysts also believe that bitcoin is increasingly appearing in the attention of investors looking for alternative safe-haven assets. Wx:CY-52520

For example, in an interview earlier this week, Morgan Creek Digital co-founder Anthony Pompliano discussed how Bitcoin will respond to current global monetary easing trends.

Pompliano believes that more and more organizations are starting to focus on Bitcoin because it "has been proven to be irrelevant and provides asymmetrical returns compared to traditional assets."

At the same time, Fundstrat's research director Tom Lee believes that Bitcoin has been decoupled from the strong dollar, and the strong dollar is the reason for the sharp fall in bitcoin prices in 2018. Bitcoin is "negatively associated with the stock market."

As a result, bitcoin is increasingly associated with gold, and its performance in 2019 is significantly better than precious metals, traditional stocks and almost all assets.

Lee said that this trend may accelerate as investors seek safe haven for traditional stocks. The Fed’s recent interest rate cuts will have a positive impact on bitcoin prices. Bitcoin is increasingly becoming a macro hedging tool for investors to guard against possible problems. Liquidity is driving capital into all of these risky assets and hedging, which helps bitcoin rise. At this rate, Bitcoin can easily break through its historical highs.
submitted by djtb11 to Bitcoin [link] [comments]

Value Propositions of Bitcoin from High Profile Investors and Venture Capitalists in 2013

Balaji Srinivasan- VC Andreesson Horowitz & Naval Ravikant- Angel List
Raoul Pal Hedge Fund Manager
Hugh Hendry Hedge Fund Manager
Michael Novogratz Hedge Fund Manager
Turr Demeester InvestoVC
Rick Falkvigne Early Adopter, Political Activist
Trace Mayor Early Adopter, Bitcoin Angel Investor- Seed Round Investor in Bitpay, and Armory Wallet
Chamath Palihapitiya Venture Capital (Social + Capital) , Early Facebook Exec.
Most Range between 100k to 3 million a piece. Bitcoin doesn't necessarily have to be worth that much to stay as relevant as it is now, but i think that the coin would have to have some value to continue to capture the attention of silicon valley and other investors, and entrepreneurs. The value of bitcoin gives incentive to the whole ecosystem to build on top of it and use it, that will not happen to the same degree if the price goes to zero and/or the currency within the protocol is somehow compromised.
This is a comment I made a few days ago and wanted to post it as its own. Just some thoughts.
Edit: Formatting
submitted by plato14 to Bitcoin [link] [comments]

Letter to the portfolio manager of a relation of mine

This is a letter I have sent to a relation of mine's portfolio manager. This is an obvious throwaway and I really am not interested in giving specifics. I'm just reproducing it here so that if others are thinking of approaching their managers, they have something as a basis for their conversation.
I am [a relation to your client]. I think that we may have spoken once in the past regarding aspects of the portfolio for [your client].
[They have] asked me to write you about some of the developments with respect to Bitcoin as a diversification option for this portfolio. I understand that [they have] put in a call to you and would like to discuss this further, and [they] wanted me to give you some materials on recent events and analysis with respect to Bitcoin.
There was recently a Wall Street Journal article covering this topic
The article tells of a paper by Marie Brire, an associate professor at Universit Paris Dauphine in France, co-authored by Kim Oosterlinck and Ariane Szafarz of the Universit Libre de Bruxelles in Belgium, that concluded that a small allocation to bitcoin, perhaps 3% of a well-diversified portfoliocould improve one's risk-return trade-off. It also has several statements by Raoul Pal, a former hedge-fund manager and founder of the Global Macro Investor, and concludes these by saying he, more conservatively, put a small slice of his portfolio—between 1% and 2%—into the coins.
There have recently been senate hearings on bitcoins and other virtual currencies, and these have been notably positive. Even Ben Bernake wrote a letter to the senate committee stating that bitcoins are not directly under any regulatory regime and that they "may hold long-term promise, particularly if the innovations promote a faster, more secure and more efficient payment system.”
We had discussed investing a small amount of [your client's] portfolio with you in the summer of 2012. At that point in time, if a 1% allocation (about [some amount]) had been done, then the value of those coins today would be about [100 times that amount]. While a lot of the upside of Bitcoins have been realized in this time, we feel that Mr. Pal is right in his assessment that there is still value in investing now.
Sincerely, [My name]
submitted by btcthrowaway3 to Bitcoin [link] [comments]

Raoul Pal, Paying Attention

A shorter version (reduced by 95.0%) can be found on IndiaSpeaks.
This is an extended summary, original article can be found here

Extended Summary:

Raoul Pal, Paying Attention.
My mind is still reeling from my discovery and from writing this piece..
Turns out hes talking about India, and more specifically, about recent advances in that nations technological infrastructure.
and no one noticed..
And Raoul wastes no time in telling us the implications of this development: India is now the most attractive major investment opportunity in the world.
It is this sort of How did you find that? idea that Raoul is known for.
I first met Raoul maybe seven years ago in a small private hedge fund gathering to which he gave a presentation.
It is the ultimate libertarian paradise no government! When something has to happen in the community, they simply get together at the bar, decide whos going to pay for what, and get on with it..
Raul comes up with more unique ideas per year than any man I know.
Not only is he presenting with Grant Williams (a killer duo last year) but he will also be moderating and participating in a few panels.
Maybe not mind-blowing, but hopefully worth your time.
My mind is still reeling from my discovery and from writing this piece.
Companies that create massively outsized technological breakthroughs tend to capture the investing populations attention and thus their share prices trade at huge multiples, as future growth and future revenues are extrapolated into the future.
The most recent example was the liberalisation of Chinas economy and massive spending on infrastructure, which together created an incredibly powerful force for growth over the last two decades.
and no one noticed..
India has, without question, made the largest technological breakthrough of any nation in living memory.
India is now the most attractive major investment opportunity in the world.
To be honest, writing the article last month was the first time I learned about any of the developments.
If you were born outside of a hospital or without any government services, which is common in India, you dont get a birth certificate.
It almost guarantees a perpetuation of poverty and it also guarantees a low tax take for India, thus it holds Indian growth back too.
It probably would have only partially worked.
1 billion people (95% of the population) now has a digital proof of identity.
But this biometric database was just the first phase.
Once huge swathes of the population began to register on the official system, the next phase was to get them into the banking system.
Within three years more than 270 million bank accounts were opened and $10bn in deposits flooded in.
I covered this in detail last month but the key takeaway is that mobile phone penetration exploded after Aadhaar and went from 40% of the population to 79% within a few years.
The next phase in the mobile phone story will be the rapid rise in smart phones, which will revolutionise everything.
Qualcomm is working closely with government authorities to get more Aadhaar-enabled devices onto the market and working with customers including the biggest Android manufacturers to integrate required features, such as secure cameras and iris authentication partners.
This rise in smart, Aadhaar compliant mobile phone penetration set the stage for the really clever stuff.
But that is not all.
Now payments can be made from UPI accounts to non-UPI accounts and can use QR codes for instant payments and also allows users to check bank balances.
Payments can now be made without using mobile phones, just using fingerprints and an Aadhaar number..
Fucking hell.
! It will revolutionise the agricultural economy, which employs 60% of the workforce and contributes 17% of GDP.
But again, that is not all.
India has gone one step further.
In 2016, India introduced another innovation called India Stack.
Essentially, it is a secure Dropbox for your entire official life and creates what is known as eKYC: Electronic Know Your Customer.
All of this data can also in turn be stored on India Stack to give, for example, proof of utility bill payment or life insurance coverage.
Its a set of APIs that allows governments, businesses, startups and developers to utilise a unique digital infrastructure to solve Indias hard problems towards presence-less, paperless and cashless service delivery.
This is fast, secure and reliable; this is the future.
This revolutionary digital infrastructure will soon be able to process billions more transactions than bitcoin ever has.
India Stack is the largest open API in the world and will allow for massive fintech opportunities to be built around it.
It has left Silicon Valley in the dust.
It simply forces everyone into the new digital economy and has the hugely beneficial side-effect of reducing everyday corruption, recapitalising the banking sector and increasing government tax take, thus allowing India to rebuild its crumbling infrastructure.
India was a cash society but once the dust settles, cash will account for less than 40% of total transactions in the next five years.
No other economy in the world is even close to this.
But that phase is over and no one noticed.
Tax revenues will fund infrastructure ports, roads, rail and healthcare.
Nothing in India will be the same again.
And I am long the Nifty Banks Index.
I think India is going to offer an entire world of opportunity going forwards.
It looks explosive for the next 10 years.
I decided to test the waters on Twitter on Sunday and Monday to find out how many non-Indians were aware of India Stack/Aadhaar.
its a decent data sample.
Now, that is an informational edge.
Global Macro Investor has one of the very best, proven track records of any newsletter in the industry, producing extremely positive returns in eight out of the last twelve years. Previously he co-managed the GLG Global Macro Fund in London for GLG Partners, one of the largest hedge fund groups in the world.
Other stop-off points on the way were NatWest Markets and HSBC, although he began his career by training traders in technical analysis.

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Raoul Pal: $1M BTC  Bittr Closes Purse Lives On  Argentina BTC Surge Raoul Pal Bitcoin will reach 30k and 50k BITCOIN VS. STOCKS  Price PREDICTIONS  Elon Musk & Vitalik Buterin Friends?  APPICS Crypto News BREAKING NEWS! BITCOIN 'BUY' SIGNAL FOR 2020!  Chainlink GAINS!Binance Crypto Debit Card Buy ETH? Raoul Pal Talks About Bitcoin with Kraken Crypto Exchange CEO

Bitcoin News Men Like Raoul Pal Are Buying Up BTC Like Crazy Nick Marinoff · April 6, 2020 · 1:00 pm. Bank Sponsored. Former Goldman Sachs fund manager Raoul Pal has warned that the coronavirus Former Goldman Sachs hedge fund manager Raoul Pal Says he’s preparing for Bitcoin to hit $1,000,000 in as little as three years. In the latest economic report from Global Macro Investor, Pal covers a litany of devastating figures on the state of economies around the world, from rapidly rising unemployment numbers in the US to plummeting retail sales in China. Former hedge fund manager and Real Vision Group Raoul Pal has just voiced his prediction that the U.S. Dollar (USD) is going to “explode higher” when the Federal Reserve makes interest rates negative.. However, it doesn’t mean that he has changed his bullish stance on Bitcoin (BTC) and gold (XAU). Raoul Pal stated that it might be time for the Bitcoin rally. Bitcoin and cryptocurrency markets have started to show signs of life again after the stagnant course that has been going on for weeks. Consolidation, which started in May, lasted until the first week of July, and now there are slight fluctuations in altcoins. Bitcoin losing correlation to stocks as rally continues; Raoul Pal believes a case for USD 1 million Bitcoin is not hard to see; Despite the tumble from USD 9,800 to USD 8,100, Bitcoin is back at USD 8,900 and climbing so buyers should not be worried for the correction.

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Raoul Pal: $1M BTC Bittr Closes Purse Lives On Argentina BTC Surge

0:17 Millenials & Gen Z About BITCOIN 0:50 Raoul Pal & Mike Novogratz BTC Price Predictions 1:27 Raoul Pal On Crypto As The Investment Option Of The Decade 2:27 Mike Novogratz On "Generation Theft ... Raoul Pal: I Think Bitcoin has All the Attributes of the Hardest Currency on Earth - April 8th 2020 ... #bitcoin #cryptocurrency #news #btc #ethereum #eth #cryptocurrency #litecoin #altcoin # ... Raoul Pal about the intersection of macroeconomics and bitcoin. ... Raoul Pal: Bitcoin To 1 Million ... Vechain 2020 Project Update, Vechain news, Future of VET VeChain Foundation 40,696 watching. Kraken CEO Jesse Powell speaks with Real Vision CEO Raoul Pal about the intersection of macroeconomics and bitcoin. BREAKING NEWS! BITCOIN 'BUY' SIGNAL FOR 2020! Chainlink GAINS!Binance Crypto Debit Card Buy ETH? Raoul Pal was a former banking manager for one of the largest banks in the world Goldman Sachs.

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