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Why I Bought Nexo Over Celsius (CEL) & Crypto.com (MCO)

Personally until last week, I haven't touched this space since the the end of 2017 when bitcoin hit 20k.
But now everything has changed.
I'm back in it now because I started hearing about DeFi and how you can earn massive interest rates on your crypto.
I was shocked when I saw you could earn 10% interest from Nexo, and on fiat! That's 10x more than what my bank offers me. It's an incredible deal and Celsius, Crypto Com (CDC), BlockFi also offer similar things.
When I saw that these were all legitimate companies with solid product I knew I had to get into this now before it was too late.
https://preview.redd.it/wxzc8a0ziea51.png?width=1184&format=png&auto=webp&s=2c717f10b911c1264ef36a08870401d30372dea7
DeFi is growing like crazy, and when everyone was offering massive interest rates on their deposits I know CeFi (centralized finance) will follow because the user experience is 10x easier for most people like me.
So I had to pick.
It was Nexo vs. Celsius vs. CDC vs. Blockfi
And I think there's never been a better time than right now. So after doing research, I chose Nexo for these 5 reasons.
  1. Big Profitability
  2. No Lock-in Terms
  3. Massive Roadmap
  4. 30% Dividends
  5. Fast Growing Company
Profitability
Back in 2017 I invested in a ton of "shitcoins" with no product and no customers and lost a lot... What I like about Nexo is that not only did have an awesome product, it has massive growth of its core crypto credit line product.
They have massive double digit growth month on month. Nexo, on average, much lends at 12% and borrows at 8%. So they make 4% APR on their loans.
So from their $217 M in loans this year they would earn somewhere around $8M in profit (if each loan took a year to repay). But that's a decent ballpark figure. You can see these figures at https://nexostatistics.com/ for more information.

https://preview.redd.it/wadznkpwhea51.png?width=2036&format=png&auto=webp&s=ce7b2ec7d39eb00f6dc5f8840bbcc6843b0dd047
So that's an incredible feat for a new company, and the ability to take a loan against your crypto saves you in several ways
For taxes you only pay after you've sold your crypto or shares, but by taking a loan against them you can delay that period so it's very tax efficient. There's no credit check so if you have credit cards loans at 20% APR then this will help you tremendously because you can borrow at 6%.
With all this profit, Nexo is creating a massive war chest to take over the CeFi space.
But what about the competition?
2. No lock-in terms
Now lets have a look at the competition. There are 3 other big players in this space. Crypto com (CDC) is the biggest as their CRO token took off and broke into the top 10. But if you want to get their best interest rates you need lock-in your investment for a minimum period of 3 months.
In this economy where it feels like we can have a second crash. I'm a lot happier knowing I can withdraw it whenever I want.
On flexible terms, for in-kind currency, Nexo wins letting you earn up to 10% over 8% the other big 3.
3. Massive Roadmap
I've watched and transcribed nearly every video Antoni Trenchev has done. And he gives a few hints of the roadmap for Nexo.
Here's a short summary:
  1. Banking License
Nexo is trying to either acquire a company or get their own banking license (like Revolut and Monzo) so they have more flexibility in their operations. It would be a huge step for a crypto company to get this and shows their ambition
  1. Credit Card
This will be similar to CDC and they'll offer generous cash back incentives of 2% when you get your credit card.
  1. Referral Scheme
Currently Nexo has done this massive growth without incentivised referrals, and when they turn this tap the company can likely see a lot of users pouring in for their great savings rates and crypto credit lines.
  1. Exchanges and more Coins
Again, the ability to crypto within the eco system will go a long way to keeping users within the system. The plan is to let users buy and stake virtually any legitimate crypto coin.
And with this massive roadmap, the core principle they started with by sharing back with the community, they keep everyone's incentives aligned.
4. Dividends
Nexo currently offers 30% of their profits to all their users on a once a year basis. This is great because it gives the Nexo token some actual utility and incentives long-term holding. It also makes Nexo more transparent because they're sharing their profits from all their crypto credit loans.
This year they'll announce on August 5th so there's still some time to get yours. Current estimates are around 5% ROI from current token price.
5. Fast Growing Company
When I first started researching each of these CeFi companies I looked at their linked to see who was hiring the most. I like to look at what companies do as well as what they say they're doing.
I noticed that celsius had very low growth, whereas BlockFi and Nexo were growing like crazy. Anyone who's not feeling confident about a business will immediately slow down hiring. But if you're more ambitious then you'll start hiring in order to increase your companies' growth.
Nexo has 15-42% growth rate in terms of employees. (It's hard to say because apparently there's another company on Linkedin called Nexo that messes up the numbers). But it should be in this ballpark.

https://preview.redd.it/b57lymjxhea51.png?width=648&format=png&auto=webp&s=e8eee982b610886d3cb8fda8d083345ce7c1ed2d
Summary
So when you have this killer combination of future update on the way, of dividens coming out in August, and company that's investing in its future. You know that Nexo could follow what happened with Crypto.com and have this massive influx of investment into the Nexo token.
CDC CRO token broke into the top 10, and with Nexo boasting profitability, user growth, employee growth, and some stunning updates that are about to being launched I can see several reasons why price keeps trending upwards. We could also see Nexo climb up the rankings as people start investing Nexo more and more.
submitted by healthyCoder to Nexo [link] [comments]

Why i’m bullish on Zilliqa (long read)

Edit: TL;DR added in the comments
 
Hey all, I've been researching coins since 2017 and have gone through 100s of them in the last 3 years. I got introduced to blockchain via Bitcoin of course, analyzed Ethereum thereafter and from that moment I have a keen interest in smart contact platforms. I’m passionate about Ethereum but I find Zilliqa to have a better risk-reward ratio. Especially because Zilliqa has found an elegant balance between being secure, decentralized and scalable in my opinion.
 
Below I post my analysis of why from all the coins I went through I’m most bullish on Zilliqa (yes I went through Tezos, EOS, NEO, VeChain, Harmony, Algorand, Cardano etc.). Note that this is not investment advice and although it's a thorough analysis there is obviously some bias involved. Looking forward to what you all think!
 
Fun fact: the name Zilliqa is a play on ‘silica’ silicon dioxide which means “Silicon for the high-throughput consensus computer.”
 
This post is divided into (i) Technology, (ii) Business & Partnerships, and (iii) Marketing & Community. I’ve tried to make the technology part readable for a broad audience. If you’ve ever tried understanding the inner workings of Bitcoin and Ethereum you should be able to grasp most parts. Otherwise, just skim through and once you are zoning out head to the next part.
 
Technology and some more:
 
Introduction
 
The technology is one of the main reasons why I’m so bullish on Zilliqa. First thing you see on their website is: “Zilliqa is a high-performance, high-security blockchain platform for enterprises and next-generation applications.” These are some bold statements.
 
Before we deep dive into the technology let’s take a step back in time first as they have quite the history. The initial research paper from which Zilliqa originated dates back to August 2016: Elastico: A Secure Sharding Protocol For Open Blockchains where Loi Luu (Kyber Network) is one of the co-authors. Other ideas that led to the development of what Zilliqa has become today are: Bitcoin-NG, collective signing CoSi, ByzCoin and Omniledger.
 
The technical white paper was made public in August 2017 and since then they have achieved everything stated in the white paper and also created their own open source intermediate level smart contract language called Scilla (functional programming language similar to OCaml) too.
 
Mainnet is live since the end of January 2019 with daily transaction rates growing continuously. About a week ago mainnet reached 5 million transactions, 500.000+ addresses in total along with 2400 nodes keeping the network decentralized and secure. Circulating supply is nearing 11 billion and currently only mining rewards are left. The maximum supply is 21 billion with annual inflation being 7.13% currently and will only decrease with time.
 
Zilliqa realized early on that the usage of public cryptocurrencies and smart contracts were increasing but decentralized, secure, and scalable alternatives were lacking in the crypto space. They proposed to apply sharding onto a public smart contract blockchain where the transaction rate increases almost linear with the increase in the amount of nodes. More nodes = higher transaction throughput and increased decentralization. Sharding comes in many forms and Zilliqa uses network-, transaction- and computational sharding. Network sharding opens up the possibility of using transaction- and computational sharding on top. Zilliqa does not use state sharding for now. We’ll come back to this later.
 
Before we continue dissecting how Zilliqa achieves such from a technological standpoint it’s good to keep in mind that a blockchain being decentralised and secure and scalable is still one of the main hurdles in allowing widespread usage of decentralised networks. In my opinion this needs to be solved first before blockchains can get to the point where they can create and add large scale value. So I invite you to read the next section to grasp the underlying fundamentals. Because after all these premises need to be true otherwise there isn’t a fundamental case to be bullish on Zilliqa, right?
 
Down the rabbit hole
 
How have they achieved this? Let’s define the basics first: key players on Zilliqa are the users and the miners. A user is anybody who uses the blockchain to transfer funds or run smart contracts. Miners are the (shard) nodes in the network who run the consensus protocol and get rewarded for their service in Zillings (ZIL). The mining network is divided into several smaller networks called shards, which is also referred to as ‘network sharding’. Miners subsequently are randomly assigned to a shard by another set of miners called DS (Directory Service) nodes. The regular shards process transactions and the outputs of these shards are eventually combined by the DS shard as they reach consensus on the final state. More on how these DS shards reach consensus (via pBFT) will be explained later on.
 
The Zilliqa network produces two types of blocks: DS blocks and Tx blocks. One DS Block consists of 100 Tx Blocks. And as previously mentioned there are two types of nodes concerned with reaching consensus: shard nodes and DS nodes. Becoming a shard node or DS node is being defined by the result of a PoW cycle (Ethash) at the beginning of the DS Block. All candidate mining nodes compete with each other and run the PoW (Proof-of-Work) cycle for 60 seconds and the submissions achieving the highest difficulty will be allowed on the network. And to put it in perspective: the average difficulty for one DS node is ~ 2 Th/s equaling 2.000.000 Mh/s or 55 thousand+ GeForce GTX 1070 / 8 GB GPUs at 35.4 Mh/s. Each DS Block 10 new DS nodes are allowed. And a shard node needs to provide around 8.53 GH/s currently (around 240 GTX 1070s). Dual mining ETH/ETC and ZIL is possible and can be done via mining software such as Phoenix and Claymore. There are pools and if you have large amounts of hashing power (Ethash) available you could mine solo.
 
The PoW cycle of 60 seconds is a peak performance and acts as an entry ticket to the network. The entry ticket is called a sybil resistance mechanism and makes it incredibly hard for adversaries to spawn lots of identities and manipulate the network with these identities. And after every 100 Tx Blocks which corresponds to roughly 1,5 hour this PoW process repeats. In between these 1,5 hour, no PoW needs to be done meaning Zilliqa’s energy consumption to keep the network secure is low. For more detailed information on how mining works click here.
Okay, hats off to you. You have made it this far. Before we go any deeper down the rabbit hole we first must understand why Zilliqa goes through all of the above technicalities and understand a bit more what a blockchain on a more fundamental level is. Because the core of Zilliqa’s consensus protocol relies on the usage of pBFT (practical Byzantine Fault Tolerance) we need to know more about state machines and their function. Navigate to Viewblock, a Zilliqa block explorer, and just come back to this article. We will use this site to navigate through a few concepts.
 
We have established that Zilliqa is a public and distributed blockchain. Meaning that everyone with an internet connection can send ZILs, trigger smart contracts, etc. and there is no central authority who fully controls the network. Zilliqa and other public and distributed blockchains (like Bitcoin and Ethereum) can also be defined as state machines.
 
Taking the liberty of paraphrasing examples and definitions given by Samuel Brooks’ medium article, he describes the definition of a blockchain (like Zilliqa) as: “A peer-to-peer, append-only datastore that uses consensus to synchronize cryptographically-secure data”.
 
Next, he states that: "blockchains are fundamentally systems for managing valid state transitions”. For some more context, I recommend reading the whole medium article to get a better grasp of the definitions and understanding of state machines. Nevertheless, let’s try to simplify and compile it into a single paragraph. Take traffic lights as an example: all its states (red, amber, and green) are predefined, all possible outcomes are known and it doesn’t matter if you encounter the traffic light today or tomorrow. It will still behave the same. Managing the states of a traffic light can be done by triggering a sensor on the road or pushing a button resulting in one traffic lights’ state going from green to red (via amber) and another light from red to green.
 
With public blockchains like Zilliqa, this isn’t so straightforward and simple. It started with block #1 almost 1,5 years ago and every 45 seconds or so a new block linked to the previous block is being added. Resulting in a chain of blocks with transactions in it that everyone can verify from block #1 to the current #647.000+ block. The state is ever changing and the states it can find itself in are infinite. And while the traffic light might work together in tandem with various other traffic lights, it’s rather insignificant comparing it to a public blockchain. Because Zilliqa consists of 2400 nodes who need to work together to achieve consensus on what the latest valid state is while some of these nodes may have latency or broadcast issues, drop offline or are deliberately trying to attack the network, etc.
 
Now go back to the Viewblock page take a look at the amount of transaction, addresses, block and DS height and then hit refresh. Obviously as expected you see new incremented values on one or all parameters. And how did the Zilliqa blockchain manage to transition from a previous valid state to the latest valid state? By using pBFT to reach consensus on the latest valid state.
 
After having obtained the entry ticket, miners execute pBFT to reach consensus on the ever-changing state of the blockchain. pBFT requires a series of network communication between nodes, and as such there is no GPU involved (but CPU). Resulting in the total energy consumed to keep the blockchain secure, decentralized and scalable being low.
 
pBFT stands for practical Byzantine Fault Tolerance and is an optimization on the Byzantine Fault Tolerant algorithm. To quote Blockonomi: “In the context of distributed systems, Byzantine Fault Tolerance is the ability of a distributed computer network to function as desired and correctly reach a sufficient consensus despite malicious components (nodes) of the system failing or propagating incorrect information to other peers.” Zilliqa is such a distributed computer network and depends on the honesty of the nodes (shard and DS) to reach consensus and to continuously update the state with the latest block. If pBFT is a new term for you I can highly recommend the Blockonomi article.
 
The idea of pBFT was introduced in 1999 - one of the authors even won a Turing award for it - and it is well researched and applied in various blockchains and distributed systems nowadays. If you want more advanced information than the Blockonomi link provides click here. And if you’re in between Blockonomi and the University of Singapore read the Zilliqa Design Story Part 2 dating from October 2017.
Quoting from the Zilliqa tech whitepaper: “pBFT relies upon a correct leader (which is randomly selected) to begin each phase and proceed when the sufficient majority exists. In case the leader is byzantine it can stall the entire consensus protocol. To address this challenge, pBFT offers a view change protocol to replace the byzantine leader with another one.”
 
pBFT can tolerate ⅓ of the nodes being dishonest (offline counts as Byzantine = dishonest) and the consensus protocol will function without stalling or hiccups. Once there are more than ⅓ of dishonest nodes but no more than ⅔ the network will be stalled and a view change will be triggered to elect a new DS leader. Only when more than ⅔ of the nodes are dishonest (66%) double-spend attacks become possible.
 
If the network stalls no transactions can be processed and one has to wait until a new honest leader has been elected. When the mainnet was just launched and in its early phases, view changes happened regularly. As of today the last stalling of the network - and view change being triggered - was at the end of October 2019.
 
Another benefit of using pBFT for consensus besides low energy is the immediate finality it provides. Once your transaction is included in a block and the block is added to the chain it’s done. Lastly, take a look at this article where three types of finality are being defined: probabilistic, absolute and economic finality. Zilliqa falls under the absolute finality (just like Tendermint for example). Although lengthy already we skipped through some of the inner workings from Zilliqa’s consensus: read the Zilliqa Design Story Part 3 and you will be close to having a complete picture on it. Enough about PoW, sybil resistance mechanism, pBFT, etc. Another thing we haven’t looked at yet is the amount of decentralization.
 
Decentralisation
 
Currently, there are four shards, each one of them consisting of 600 nodes. 1 shard with 600 so-called DS nodes (Directory Service - they need to achieve a higher difficulty than shard nodes) and 1800 shard nodes of which 250 are shard guards (centralized nodes controlled by the team). The amount of shard guards has been steadily declining from 1200 in January 2019 to 250 as of May 2020. On the Viewblock statistics, you can see that many of the nodes are being located in the US but those are only the (CPU parts of the) shard nodes who perform pBFT. There is no data from where the PoW sources are coming. And when the Zilliqa blockchain starts reaching its transaction capacity limit, a network upgrade needs to be executed to lift the current cap of maximum 2400 nodes to allow more nodes and formation of more shards which will allow to network to keep on scaling according to demand.
Besides shard nodes there are also seed nodes. The main role of seed nodes is to serve as direct access points (for end-users and clients) to the core Zilliqa network that validates transactions. Seed nodes consolidate transaction requests and forward these to the lookup nodes (another type of nodes) for distribution to the shards in the network. Seed nodes also maintain the entire transaction history and the global state of the blockchain which is needed to provide services such as block explorers. Seed nodes in the Zilliqa network are comparable to Infura on Ethereum.
 
The seed nodes were first only operated by Zilliqa themselves, exchanges and Viewblock. Operators of seed nodes like exchanges had no incentive to open them for the greater public. They were centralised at first. Decentralisation at the seed nodes level has been steadily rolled out since March 2020 ( Zilliqa Improvement Proposal 3 ). Currently the amount of seed nodes is being increased, they are public-facing and at the same time PoS is applied to incentivize seed node operators and make it possible for ZIL holders to stake and earn passive yields. Important distinction: seed nodes are not involved with consensus! That is still PoW as entry ticket and pBFT for the actual consensus.
 
5% of the block rewards are being assigned to seed nodes (from the beginning in 2019) and those are being used to pay out ZIL stakers. The 5% block rewards with an annual yield of 10.03% translate to roughly 610 MM ZILs in total that can be staked. Exchanges use the custodial variant of staking and wallets like Moonlet will use the non-custodial version (starting in Q3 2020). Staking is being done by sending ZILs to a smart contract created by Zilliqa and audited by Quantstamp.
 
With a high amount of DS; shard nodes and seed nodes becoming more decentralized too, Zilliqa qualifies for the label of decentralized in my opinion.
 
Smart contracts
 
Let me start by saying I’m not a developer and my programming skills are quite limited. So I‘m taking the ELI5 route (maybe 12) but if you are familiar with Javascript, Solidity or specifically OCaml please head straight to Scilla - read the docs to get a good initial grasp of how Zilliqa’s smart contract language Scilla works and if you ask yourself “why another programming language?” check this article. And if you want to play around with some sample contracts in an IDE click here. The faucet can be found here. And more information on architecture, dapp development and API can be found on the Developer Portal.
If you are more into listening and watching: check this recent webinar explaining Zilliqa and Scilla. Link is time-stamped so you’ll start right away with a platform introduction, roadmap 2020 and afterwards a proper Scilla introduction.
 
Generalized: programming languages can be divided into being ‘object-oriented’ or ‘functional’. Here is an ELI5 given by software development academy: * “all programs have two basic components, data – what the program knows – and behavior – what the program can do with that data. So object-oriented programming states that combining data and related behaviors in one place, is called “object”, which makes it easier to understand how a particular program works. On the other hand, functional programming argues that data and behavior are different things and should be separated to ensure their clarity.” *
 
Scilla is on the functional side and shares similarities with OCaml: OCaml is a general-purpose programming language with an emphasis on expressiveness and safety. It has an advanced type system that helps catch your mistakes without getting in your way. It's used in environments where a single mistake can cost millions and speed matters, is supported by an active community, and has a rich set of libraries and development tools. For all its power, OCaml is also pretty simple, which is one reason it's often used as a teaching language.
 
Scilla is blockchain agnostic, can be implemented onto other blockchains as well, is recognized by academics and won a so-called Distinguished Artifact Award award at the end of last year.
 
One of the reasons why the Zilliqa team decided to create their own programming language focused on preventing smart contract vulnerabilities is that adding logic on a blockchain, programming, means that you cannot afford to make mistakes. Otherwise, it could cost you. It’s all great and fun blockchains being immutable but updating your code because you found a bug isn’t the same as with a regular web application for example. And with smart contracts, it inherently involves cryptocurrencies in some form thus value.
 
Another difference with programming languages on a blockchain is gas. Every transaction you do on a smart contract platform like Zilliqa or Ethereum costs gas. With gas you basically pay for computational costs. Sending a ZIL from address A to address B costs 0.001 ZIL currently. Smart contracts are more complex, often involve various functions and require more gas (if gas is a new concept click here ).
 
So with Scilla, similar to Solidity, you need to make sure that “every function in your smart contract will run as expected without hitting gas limits. An improper resource analysis may lead to situations where funds may get stuck simply because a part of the smart contract code cannot be executed due to gas limits. Such constraints are not present in traditional software systems”. Scilla design story part 1
 
Some examples of smart contract issues you’d want to avoid are: leaking funds, ‘unexpected changes to critical state variables’ (example: someone other than you setting his or her address as the owner of the smart contract after creation) or simply killing a contract.
 
Scilla also allows for formal verification. Wikipedia to the rescue: In the context of hardware and software systems, formal verification is the act of proving or disproving the correctness of intended algorithms underlying a system with respect to a certain formal specification or property, using formal methods of mathematics.
 
Formal verification can be helpful in proving the correctness of systems such as: cryptographic protocols, combinational circuits, digital circuits with internal memory, and software expressed as source code.
 
Scilla is being developed hand-in-hand with formalization of its semantics and its embedding into the Coq proof assistant — a state-of-the art tool for mechanized proofs about properties of programs.”
 
Simply put, with Scilla and accompanying tooling developers can be mathematically sure and proof that the smart contract they’ve written does what he or she intends it to do.
 
Smart contract on a sharded environment and state sharding
 
There is one more topic I’d like to touch on: smart contract execution in a sharded environment (and what is the effect of state sharding). This is a complex topic. I’m not able to explain it any easier than what is posted here. But I will try to compress the post into something easy to digest.
 
Earlier on we have established that Zilliqa can process transactions in parallel due to network sharding. This is where the linear scalability comes from. We can define simple transactions: a transaction from address A to B (Category 1), a transaction where a user interacts with one smart contract (Category 2) and the most complex ones where triggering a transaction results in multiple smart contracts being involved (Category 3). The shards are able to process transactions on their own without interference of the other shards. With Category 1 transactions that is doable, with Category 2 transactions sometimes if that address is in the same shard as the smart contract but with Category 3 you definitely need communication between the shards. Solving that requires to make a set of communication rules the protocol needs to follow in order to process all transactions in a generalised fashion.
 
And this is where the downsides of state sharding comes in currently. All shards in Zilliqa have access to the complete state. Yes the state size (0.1 GB at the moment) grows and all of the nodes need to store it but it also means that they don’t need to shop around for information available on other shards. Requiring more communication and adding more complexity. Computer science knowledge and/or developer knowledge required links if you want to dig further: Scilla - language grammar Scilla - Foundations for Verifiable Decentralised Computations on a Blockchain Gas Accounting NUS x Zilliqa: Smart contract language workshop
 
Easier to follow links on programming Scilla https://learnscilla.com/home Ivan on Tech
 
Roadmap / Zilliqa 2.0
 
There is no strict defined roadmap but here are topics being worked on. And via the Zilliqa website there is also more information on the projects they are working on.
 
Business & Partnerships
 
It’s not only technology in which Zilliqa seems to be excelling as their ecosystem has been expanding and starting to grow rapidly. The project is on a mission to provide OpenFinance (OpFi) to the world and Singapore is the right place to be due to its progressive regulations and futuristic thinking. Singapore has taken a proactive approach towards cryptocurrencies by introducing the Payment Services Act 2019 (PS Act). Among other things, the PS Act will regulate intermediaries dealing with certain cryptocurrencies, with a particular focus on consumer protection and anti-money laundering. It will also provide a stable regulatory licensing and operating framework for cryptocurrency entities, effectively covering all crypto businesses and exchanges based in Singapore. According to PWC 82% of the surveyed executives in Singapore reported blockchain initiatives underway and 13% of them have already brought the initiatives live to the market. There is also an increasing list of organizations that are starting to provide digital payment services. Moreover, Singaporean blockchain developers Building Cities Beyond has recently created an innovation $15 million grant to encourage development on its ecosystem. This all suggests that Singapore tries to position itself as (one of) the leading blockchain hubs in the world.
 
Zilliqa seems to already take advantage of this and recently helped launch Hg Exchange on their platform, together with financial institutions PhillipCapital, PrimePartners and Fundnel. Hg Exchange, which is now approved by the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS), uses smart contracts to represent digital assets. Through Hg Exchange financial institutions worldwide can use Zilliqa's safe-by-design smart contracts to enable the trading of private equities. For example, think of companies such as Grab, Airbnb, SpaceX that are not available for public trading right now. Hg Exchange will allow investors to buy shares of private companies & unicorns and capture their value before an IPO. Anquan, the main company behind Zilliqa, has also recently announced that they became a partner and shareholder in TEN31 Bank, which is a fully regulated bank allowing for tokenization of assets and is aiming to bridge the gap between conventional banking and the blockchain world. If STOs, the tokenization of assets, and equity trading will continue to increase, then Zilliqa’s public blockchain would be the ideal candidate due to its strategic positioning, partnerships, regulatory compliance and the technology that is being built on top of it.
 
What is also very encouraging is their focus on banking the un(der)banked. They are launching a stablecoin basket starting with XSGD. As many of you know, stablecoins are currently mostly used for trading. However, Zilliqa is actively trying to broaden the use case of stablecoins. I recommend everybody to read this text that Amrit Kumar wrote (one of the co-founders). These stablecoins will be integrated in the traditional markets and bridge the gap between the crypto world and the traditional world. This could potentially revolutionize and legitimise the crypto space if retailers and companies will for example start to use stablecoins for payments or remittances, instead of it solely being used for trading.
 
Zilliqa also released their DeFi strategic roadmap (dating November 2019) which seems to be aligning well with their OpFi strategy. A non-custodial DEX is coming to Zilliqa made by Switcheo which allows cross-chain trading (atomic swaps) between ETH, EOS and ZIL based tokens. They also signed a Memorandum of Understanding for a (soon to be announced) USD stablecoin. And as Zilliqa is all about regulations and being compliant, I’m speculating on it to be a regulated USD stablecoin. Furthermore, XSGD is already created and visible on block explorer and XIDR (Indonesian Stablecoin) is also coming soon via StraitsX. Here also an overview of the Tech Stack for Financial Applications from September 2019. Further quoting Amrit Kumar on this:
 
There are two basic building blocks in DeFi/OpFi though: 1) stablecoins as you need a non-volatile currency to get access to this market and 2) a dex to be able to trade all these financial assets. The rest are built on top of these blocks.
 
So far, together with our partners and community, we have worked on developing these building blocks with XSGD as a stablecoin. We are working on bringing a USD-backed stablecoin as well. We will soon have a decentralised exchange developed by Switcheo. And with HGX going live, we are also venturing into the tokenization space. More to come in the future.”
 
Additionally, they also have this ZILHive initiative that injects capital into projects. There have been already 6 waves of various teams working on infrastructure, innovation and research, and they are not from ASEAN or Singapore only but global: see Grantees breakdown by country. Over 60 project teams from over 20 countries have contributed to Zilliqa's ecosystem. This includes individuals and teams developing wallets, explorers, developer toolkits, smart contract testing frameworks, dapps, etc. As some of you may know, Unstoppable Domains (UD) blew up when they launched on Zilliqa. UD aims to replace cryptocurrency addresses with a human-readable name and allows for uncensorable websites. Zilliqa will probably be the only one able to handle all these transactions onchain due to ability to scale and its resulting low fees which is why the UD team launched this on Zilliqa in the first place. Furthermore, Zilliqa also has a strong emphasis on security, compliance, and privacy, which is why they partnered with companies like Elliptic, ChainSecurity (part of PwC Switzerland), and Incognito. Their sister company Aqilliz (Zilliqa spelled backwards) focuses on revolutionizing the digital advertising space and is doing interesting things like using Zilliqa to track outdoor digital ads with companies like Foodpanda.
 
Zilliqa is listed on nearly all major exchanges, having several different fiat-gateways and recently have been added to Binance’s margin trading and futures trading with really good volume. They also have a very impressive team with good credentials and experience. They don't just have “tech people”. They have a mix of tech people, business people, marketeers, scientists, and more. Naturally, it's good to have a mix of people with different skill sets if you work in the crypto space.
 
Marketing & Community
 
Zilliqa has a very strong community. If you just follow their Twitter their engagement is much higher for a coin that has approximately 80k followers. They also have been ‘coin of the day’ by LunarCrush many times. LunarCrush tracks real-time cryptocurrency value and social data. According to their data, it seems Zilliqa has a more fundamental and deeper understanding of marketing and community engagement than almost all other coins. While almost all coins have been a bit frozen in the last months, Zilliqa seems to be on its own bull run. It was somewhere in the 100s a few months ago and is currently ranked #46 on CoinGecko. Their official Telegram also has over 20k people and is very active, and their community channel which is over 7k now is more active and larger than many other official channels. Their local communities also seem to be growing.
 
Moreover, their community started ‘Zillacracy’ together with the Zilliqa core team ( see www.zillacracy.com ). It’s a community-run initiative where people from all over the world are now helping with marketing and development on Zilliqa. Since its launch in February 2020 they have been doing a lot and will also run their own non-custodial seed node for staking. This seed node will also allow them to start generating revenue for them to become a self sustaining entity that could potentially scale up to become a decentralized company working in parallel with the Zilliqa core team. Comparing it to all the other smart contract platforms (e.g. Cardano, EOS, Tezos etc.) they don't seem to have started a similar initiative (correct me if I’m wrong though). This suggests in my opinion that these other smart contract platforms do not fully understand how to utilize the ‘power of the community’. This is something you cannot ‘buy with money’ and gives many projects in the space a disadvantage.
 
Zilliqa also released two social products called SocialPay and Zeeves. SocialPay allows users to earn ZILs while tweeting with a specific hashtag. They have recently used it in partnership with the Singapore Red Cross for a marketing campaign after their initial pilot program. It seems like a very valuable social product with a good use case. I can see a lot of traditional companies entering the space through this product, which they seem to suggest will happen. Tokenizing hashtags with smart contracts to get network effect is a very smart and innovative idea.
 
Regarding Zeeves, this is a tipping bot for Telegram. They already have 1000s of signups and they plan to keep upgrading it for more and more people to use it (e.g. they recently have added a quiz features). They also use it during AMAs to reward people in real-time. It’s a very smart approach to grow their communities and get familiar with ZIL. I can see this becoming very big on Telegram. This tool suggests, again, that the Zilliqa team has a deeper understanding of what the crypto space and community needs and is good at finding the right innovative tools to grow and scale.
 
To be honest, I haven’t covered everything (i’m also reaching the character limited haha). So many updates happening lately that it's hard to keep up, such as the International Monetary Fund mentioning Zilliqa in their report, custodial and non-custodial Staking, Binance Margin, Futures, Widget, entering the Indian market, and more. The Head of Marketing Colin Miles has also released this as an overview of what is coming next. And last but not least, Vitalik Buterin has been mentioning Zilliqa lately acknowledging Zilliqa and mentioning that both projects have a lot of room to grow. There is much more info of course and a good part of it has been served to you on a silver platter. I invite you to continue researching by yourself :-) And if you have any comments or questions please post here!
submitted by haveyouheardaboutit to CryptoCurrency [link] [comments]

The Unofficial Cardano FAQ - V3

(if you would like to add information or see mistakes, just comment below and I will credit you)
What is Cardano? Cardano is an open source and permissionless "Third Generation" blockchain project being developed by IOHK. Development and research started in 2015, with the 1.0 mainnet launching in 2017. Cardano blockchain is currently being developed into two layers. The first one is the ledger of account values, and the second one is the reason why values are transferred from one account to the other.
  1. Cardano Settlement Layer (CSL) - The CSL acts as the ledger of account or balance ledger. This is an idea created as an improvement of bitcoin blockchain. It uses a proof-of-stake consensus algorithm known as Ouroboros to generate new blocks and confirm transactions.
  2. Cardano Computation Layer (CCL) - The CCL contains the data how values are transferred. Since the computation layer is not connected to balance ledger, users of the CCL can create customized rules (smart contracts) when evaluating transactions. (https://support.bitkub.com/hc/en-us/articles/360006678892-What-are-the-two-layers-of-Cardano-)
IOHK has the contract with an undisclosed party to develop the project until the end of 2020, at which point the community may elect another development team - on the assumption that the voting infrastructure has been completed. However CEO Charles Hoskinson has stated that they will develop the project until it is completed, and they are simply financed until the end of 2020.
Cardano was the first project built on a peer-reviewed scientific development method, resulting in dozens of research papers produced by IOHK. Among these papers is Ouroboros Genesis, proving that a Proof of Stake protocol can be just as secure as Proof of Work - which was originally developed for Bitcoin, and refined for Ethereum. This PoS protocol considerably lowers the resources cost to maintain network while still maintaining security and network speed.
Cardano as a financial infrastructure is not yet completed, With significant development to be rolled out.
What were the other two generations of blockchain? Gen 1 was Bitcoin. It exists by itself and talks to nobody but Bitcoin. It is capable of peer to peer transactions without a third party in such a way that you cannot cheat the system. This was a major step forward for the E-cash concept that people have been working on for the 20 years prior.
Gen 2 was Ethereum and other smart-contract platforms that allow other coins and platforms to be built on top of their infrastructure. These coins can interact with others on the platform, but cannot interact with other platforms. Meaning it is still not truly interoperable. Most Gen 2 blockchains are also using Proof of Work likes Bitcoin, which effects scaling. Also missing is a built-in method to pay for upgrades and voting mechanics for decision making.
Gen 3 blockchains are a complete package designed to replace the current financial infrastructure of the world. Cardano is using Proof of Stake to ensure security and decentralisation(Shelley). Scaling through parallel computation (Hydra in Basho), Sidechains to allow the platform to interact with other platforms (Basho), and also include mechanisms for voting for project funding, changes to the protocol and improvement proposals (Voltaire). Finally smart contracts platform for new and established projects that are developer friendly (Goguen).
Who is the team behind Cardano? There are three organisations that are contributing to the development of Cardano. The first is the Cardano Foundation, an objective, non-profit organisation based in Switzerland. Its core responsibilities are to nurture, grow and educate Cardano users and commercial communities, to engage with authorities on regulatory and commercial matters and to act as a blockchain and cryptocurrency standards body. The second entity is IOHK, a leading cryptocurrency research and development company, which holds the contract to develop the platform until 2020. The final business partner is Emurgo, which invests in start-ups and assists commercial ventures to build on the Cardano blockchain.
www.Cardano.org www.emurgo.io https://cardanofoundation.org/en/
What is the difference between Proof of Work and Proof of stake? Both these protocols are known as “consensus protocols” that confirm whether a transaction is valid or invalid without a middleman like Visa or your bank. Every node (active and updated copy of the blockchain) can agree that the transaction did take place legitimately. If more than half validators agree, then the ledger is updated and the transaction is now secured. Proof-of-Work (PoW) happens when a miner is elected to solve an exceptionally difficult math problem and gets credit for adding a verified block to the blockchain. Finding a solution is an arduous guessing game that takes a considerable amount of computing power to compete for the correct answer. It is like “pick a number between 1 and one trillion” and when you get it right, you get $30,000 in Bitcoin, so the more computers you have working on it, the faster you can solve it. Also the more people who are trying to solve the same block, the harder the algorithm, so it may become 1 in 20 trillion. The downside is the massive amounts of power required to run the computers that run the network, and the slow pace that blocks are solved. To “Hack” a PoW system, you need 51% of the computing power, which would allow you to deny transactions, or spend the same coin twice. At the moment there are 8 main mining operations for bitcoin, and 4 of them make up more that 51% of the mining power.
PoS instead selects a coin at random that already exists, and the person who owns that coin is elected to put the work in to validate the block. This means there is no contest and no guessing game. Some computer power is required, but only a fraction of a PoW system. The complex nature of selecting a coin that exists on the correct and longest chain and is owned by someone who can complete the block, AND in such a way that it is secure AND that computer currently running AND that person also having an incentive to complete the work, has made the development of PoS very slow. However only a few years ago it wasn’t even possible. In this method, the more of the coin (ADA) you stake, the more likely you are to be selected to close a block. Cardano also allows you to delegate your stake to someone else to validate the block so they do the work, and you share in the reward for doing so.
To “hack” a PoS blockchain you need to own 51% of the tokens, which is significantly harder than owning 51% of the computing power.
What is ADA and how is it different to Cardano? Cardano is the name of the network infrastructure, and can be thought of like a rail network. ADA is the native token that has been developed alongside Cardano to facilitate the network operation. This helps confusion and maintains distinction, compared to Ethereum being the native token of Ethereum. Similar to bitcoin or any other token, ADA can be sent peer to peer as payment, but is also the reward for running the network, and what is taken as transaction fees.
In this metaphor “Cardano” is the train tracks, that everything runs on. A stake pool would be the locomotive, facilitating transactions on the network while ADA is the coal that powers the locomotive. The train carriages are Decentralised applications (Dapps) that are also running on cardano tracks, but are not actively powering the network.
What is staking Cardano is a Proof of Stake protocol, and uses already existing coins like a marker to ensure security. The protocol chooses a coin at random and the owner of that coin is elected to validate a block of transactions. Staking is the process of adding your ADA coins to a Pool that has the resources to run the network. If the pool you have chosen to "delegate" your stake to is chosen to close/validate a block, then you get a portion of the rewards. The ADA never leaves your wallet, and you can "undelegate" whenever you like. this increases stability of the network and also gives an incentive to pool operators to invest the time and hardware required to run a pool.
What is a stake-pool and how does it work? Cardano.org FAQ on the issue goes into much more detail
A stake pool is where the computing power of the network takes place. During ITN there was 1200 registered stake pools while 300 were creating blocks. You can manage your own stake-pool or delegate your ADA to an already registered pool. Rewards are determined by the protocol, however the pool may elect to charge fee Percentages, or flat rate fee to upkeep their pool.
Can I Stake my ADA right now? The staking testnet has closed, If you participated in the Incentivised Test Net and earned rewards, instructions to check the balance are here.
However if you have just purchased some or it was held on an exchange, then you will need to wait until the Shelley mainnet launch happening at the end of July 2020.
Where do I stake my ADA? Daedalus Flight wallet, and Yoroi Wallet (as a chrome extension) are the current best options. Adalite and several other third-party wallets also exist. Coinbase will also allow staking as a custodial service, and many exchanges may offer “staking as a service” so you can leave your coins on the exchange and still earn rewards if you enjoy trading. I do not recommend leaving coins on an exchange unless you are actively trading.
What are the staking rewards now and what can I expect on a return in the future? The Incentivised Test Net (ITN) Delivered 10%-15%pa returns on average. The future of staking will most likely be lower, but will depend on the amount of ADA staked across the network and the amount of network traffic.
Check https://staking.cardano.org/en/calculato for a clearer picture.
what is a Pledge? To stop one person operating many pools, the rewards that a pool earns will vary depending on the amount of personal ADA they “pledge” to open the pool. This means that 50 pools with a 1,00ADA pledge each will be overall less profitable than 1-2 pool with the max ADA pledge (unknown but likely around 300k). Even if the 50 pools have the same over stake delegated by other users and have a better chance of being selected to close a block, the 50 pools may receive lower rewards.. (at least that is the theory)
Who is IOHK? IOHK is a for-profit software engineering company founded by CEO Charles Hoskinson and Jeremy Wood in 2015 that has taken a scientific approach to the development of blockchain. IOHK started with “first principles” and looked at questions like “what is a blockchain” and “what should a blockchain be able to do” rather than accepting the established paradigm of Bitcoin and Ethereum. IOHK was originally Input Output Hong Kong, but is now Input Output Global and is based in Wyoming USA employing over 230 staff. IOHK has established research labs in several universities in order to complete the Cardano project, and is also developing Ethereum Classic, Atala, Mantis and possibly other Blockchain related programs and infrastructure.
Who is Charles? Charles Hoskinson is an early adopter of cryptocurrencies, American entrepreneur and cryptocurrency specialist. Charles Co-founded Ethereum with Vitalik Buterin and 5-8 others, However he only worked on that project for approximately six-months. Charles is now the CEO of IOHK and the director of The Bitcoin Education Project.
Why isn’t ADA on coinbase? Cardano and coinbase have recently connected in a big way. With IOHK turning over all their ADA to the custodial services of Coinbase. This means that Cardano and Coinbase have been working together for some time and there is a strong partnership forming. Staking and cold storage will be available and trading on Coinbase will most likely become available after the release of Shelley (although no official word yet)
Why Doesn’t Cardano have a Wikipedia Page? Wikipedia has strict guidelines on what can be turned into an article. As there has been no coverage of Cardano from mainstream media or “noteworthy” sources, there is no article yet. Wikipedia will also not accept sources from IOHK as they are not considered “reliable” and must come from a third party. This will most likely change soon.
Cardano does have a dedicated community driven wiki
https://cardanowiki.info/wiki/Home
What is Atala and why do I care?*
Atala is a suite of services being developed on top of the cardano blockchain by IOHK that focusses on credential certification, for things like education, work history and degrees (Atala Prism). Product counterfeiting protection through registering products on a blockchain and create taper-proof provenance. This does not only apply to Gucci handbags, but also medication, art, and anything that can be counterfeited (Atala Scan). As well as supply chain tracking to see issues and inefficiencies with greater transparency(Atala Trace).
Im new, how much is a good investment?
Cardano is still a speculative market and although there is amazing potential here, it is still only potential. When investing in any High risk market like Crypto, only every invest what you are willing to lose. Cardano may be testing the 10c barrier now. But in March it dumped to 1.7c. And if you suddenly need your money back during the dump then you are out of luck. Do your research before you FOMO in. Start with a small amount and send it between wallets and exchanges to understand how the system works. Store your private keys offline (or online cloud service but encrypted) with a method that is unlikely to be damaged AND have multiple copies. So in the case of a house fire or a blow to the head, or the cloud service being shutdown/destroyed, you do not lose your money.
Timelines
https://roadmap.cardano.org/en/
Shelley Decentralisation rollout and news
Goguen smart contract rollout
Voltaire Voting mechanics – no official roll out timeline (though promised for 2020)
Basho scaling and sidechains – no official roll out time line (most likely 2021)
submitted by YourBestMateRobbo to cardano [link] [comments]

Testing the Tide | Monthly FIRE Portfolio Update - June 2020

We would rather be ruined than changed.
-W H Auden, The Age of Anxiety
This is my forty-third portfolio update. I complete this update monthly to check my progress against my goal.
Portfolio goal
My objective is to reach a portfolio of $2 180 000 by 1 July 2021. This would produce a real annual income of about $87 000 (in 2020 dollars).
This portfolio objective is based on an expected average real return of 3.99 per cent, or a nominal return of 6.49 per cent.
Portfolio summary
Vanguard Lifestrategy High Growth Fund – $726 306
Vanguard Lifestrategy Growth Fund – $42 118
Vanguard Lifestrategy Balanced Fund – $78 730
Vanguard Diversified Bonds Fund – $111 691
Vanguard Australian Shares ETF (VAS) – $201 745
Vanguard International Shares ETF (VGS) – $39 357
Betashares Australia 200 ETF (A200) – $231 269
Telstra shares (TLS) – $1 668
Insurance Australia Group shares (IAG) – $7 310
NIB Holdings shares (NHF) – $5 532
Gold ETF (GOLD.ASX) – $117 757
Secured physical gold – $18 913
Ratesetter (P2P lending) – $10 479
Bitcoin – $148 990
Raiz app (Aggressive portfolio) – $16 841
Spaceship Voyager app (Index portfolio) – $2 553
BrickX (P2P rental real estate) – $4 484
Total portfolio value: $1 765 743 (+$8 485 or 0.5%)
Asset allocation
Australian shares – 42.2% (2.8% under)
Global shares – 22.0%
Emerging markets shares – 2.3%
International small companies – 3.0%
Total international shares – 27.3% (2.7% under)
Total shares – 69.5% (5.5% under)
Total property securities – 0.3% (0.3% over)
Australian bonds – 4.7%
International bonds – 9.4%
Total bonds – 14.0% (1.0% under)
Gold – 7.7%
Bitcoin – 8.4%
Gold and alternatives – 16.2% (6.2% over)
Presented visually, below is a high-level view of the current asset allocation of the portfolio.
[Chart]
Comments
The overall portfolio increased slightly over the month. This has continued to move the portfolio beyond the lows seen in late March.
The modest portfolio growth of $8 000, or 0.5 per cent, maintains its value at around that achieved at the beginning of the year.
[Chart]
The limited growth this month largely reflects an increase in the value of my current equity holdings, in VAS and A200 and the Vanguard retail funds. This has outweighed a small decline in the value of Bitcoin and global shares. The value of the bond holdings also increased modestly, pushing them to their highest value since around early 2017.
[Chart]
There still appears to be an air of unreality around recent asset price increases and the broader economic context. Britain's Bank of England has on some indicators shown that the aftermath of the pandemic and lockdown represent the most challenging financial crisis in around 300 years. What is clear is that investor perceptions and fear around the coronavirus pandemic are a substantial ongoing force driving volatility in equity markets (pdf).
A somewhat optimistic view is provided here that the recovery could look more like the recovery from a natural disaster, rather than a traditional recession. Yet there are few certainties on offer. Negative oil prices, and effective offers by US equity investors to bail out Hertz creditors at no cost appear to be signs of a financial system under significant strains.
As this Reserve Bank article highlights, while some Australian households are well-placed to weather the storm ahead, the timing and severity of what lays ahead is an important unknown that will itself feed into changes in household wealth from here.
Investments this month have been exclusively in the Australian shares exchange-traded fund (VAS) using Selfwealth.* This has been to bring my actual asset allocation more closely in line with the target split between Australian and global shares.
A moving azimuth: falling spending continues
Monthly expenses on the credit card have continued their downward trajectory across the past month.
[Chart]
The rolling average of monthly credit card spending is now at its lowest point over the period of the journey. This is despite the end of lockdown, and a slow resumption of some more normal aspects of spending.
This has continued the brief period since April of the achievement of a notional and contingent kind of financial independence.
The below chart illustrates this temporary state, setting out the degree to which portfolio distributions cover estimated total expenses, measured month to month.
[Chart]
There are two sources of volatility underlying its movement. The first is the level of expenses, which can vary, and the second is the fact that it is based on financial year distributions, which are themselves volatile.
Importantly, the distributions over the last twelve months of this chart is only an estimate - and hence the next few weeks will affect the precision of this analysis across its last 12 observations.
Estimating 2019-20 financial year portfolio distributions
Since the beginning of the journey, this time of year usually has sense of waiting for events to unfold - in particular, finding out the level of half-year distributions to June.
These represent the bulk of distributions, usually averaging 60-65 per cent of total distributions received. They are an important and tangible signpost of progress on the financial independence journey.
This is no simple task, as distributions have varied in size considerably.
A part of this variation has been the important role of sometimes large and lumpy capital distributions - which have made up between 30 to 48 per cent of total distributions in recent years, and an average of around 15 per cent across the last two decades.
I have experimented with many different approaches, most of which have relied on averaging over multi-year periods to even out the 'peaks and troughs' of how market movements may have affected distributions. The main approaches have been:
Each of these have their particular simplifications, advantages and drawbacks.
Developing new navigation tools
Over the past month I have also developed more fully an alternate 'model' for estimating returns.
This simply derives a median value across a set of historical 'cents per unit' distribution data for June and December payouts for the Vanguard funds and exchange traded funds. These make up over 96 per cent of income producing portfolio assets.
In other words, this model essentially assumes that each Vanguard fund and ETF owned pays out the 'average' level of distributions this half-year, with the average being based on distribution records that typically go back between 5 to 10 years.
Mapping the distribution estimates
The chart below sets out the estimate produced by each approach for the June distributions that are to come.
[Chart]
Some observations on these findings can be made.
The lowest estimate is the 'adjusted GFC income' observation, which essentially assumes that the income for this period is as low as experienced by the equity and bond portfolio during the Global Financial Crisis. Just due to timing differences of the period observed, this seems to be a 'worst case' lower bound estimate, which I do not currently place significant weight on.
Similarly, at the highest end, the 'average distribution rate' approach simply assumes June distributions deliver a distribution equal to the median that the entire portfolio has delivered since 1999. With higher interest rates, and larger fixed income holdings across much of that time, this seems an objectively unlikely outcome.
Similarly, the delivery of exactly the income suggested by long-term averages measured across decades and even centuries would be a matter of chance, rather than the basis for rational expectations.
Central estimates of the line of position
This leaves the estimates towards the centre of the chart - estimates of between around $28 000 to $43 000 as representing the more likely range.
I attach less weight to the historical three-year average due to the high contribution of distributed capital gains over that period of growth, where at least across equities some capital losses are likely to be in greater presence.
My preferred central estimate is the model estimate (green) , as it is based in historical data directly from the investment vehicles rather than my own evolving portfolio. The data it is based on in some cases goes back to the Global Financial Crisis. This estimate is also quite close to the raw average of all the alternative approaches (red). It sits a little above the 'adjusted income' measure.
None of these estimates, it should be noted, contain any explicit adjustment for the earnings and dividend reductions or delays arising from COVID-19. They may, therefore represent a modest over-estimate for likely June distributions, to the extent that these effects are more negative than those experienced on average across the period of the underlying data.
These are difficult to estimate, but dividend reductions could easily be in the order of 20-30 per cent, plausibly lowering distributions to the $23 000 to $27 000 range. The recently announced forecast dividend for the Vanguard Australian Shares ETF (VAS) is, for example, the lowest in four years.
As seen from chart above, there is a wide band of estimates, which grow wider still should capital gains be unexpectedly distributed from the Vanguard retail funds. These have represented a source of considerable volatility. Given this, it may seem fruitless to seek to estimate these forthcoming distributions, compared to just waiting for them to arrive.
Yet this exercise helps by setting out reasoning and positions, before hindsight bias urgently arrives to inform me that I knew the right answer all along. It also potentially helps clearly 'reject' some models over time, if the predictions they make prove to be systematically incorrect.
Progress
Progress against the objective, and the additional measures I have reached is set out below.
Measure Portfolio All Assets
Portfolio objective – $2 180 000 (or $87 000 pa) 81.0% 109.4%
Credit card purchases – $71 000 pa 98.8% 133.5%
Total expenses – $89 000 pa 79.2% 106.9%
Summary
The current coronavirus conditions are affecting all aspects of the journey to financial independence - changing spending habits, leading to volatility in equity markets and sequencing risks, and perhaps dramatically altering the expected pattern of portfolio distributions.
Although history can provide some guidance, there is simply no definitive way to know whether any or all of these changes will be fundamental and permanent alterations, or simply data points on a post-natural disaster path to a different post-pandemic set of conditions. There is the temptation to fit past crises imperfectly into the modern picture, as this Of Dollars and Data post illustrates well.
Taking a longer 100 year view, this piece 'The Allegory of the Hawk and Serpent' is a reminder that our entire set of received truths about constructing a portfolio to survive for the long-term can be a product of a sample size of one - actual past history - and subject to recency bias.
This month has felt like one of quiet routines, muted events compared to the past few months, and waiting to understand more fully the shape of the new. Nonetheless, with each new investment, or week of lower expenditure than implied in my FI target, the nature of the journey is incrementally changing - beneath the surface.
Small milestones are being passed - such as over 40 per cent of my equity holdings being outside of the the Vanguard retail funds. Or these these retail funds - which once formed over 95 per cent of the portfolio - now making up less than half.
With a significant part of the financial independence journey being about repeated small actions producing outsized results with time, the issue of maintaining good routines while exploring beneficial changes is real.
Adding to the complexity is that embarking on the financial journey itself is likely to change who one is. This idea, of the difficulty or impossibility of knowing the preferences of a future self, is explored in a fascinating way in this Econtalk podcast episode with a philosophical thought experiment about vampires. It poses the question: perhaps we can never know ourselves at the destination? And yet, who would rationally choose ruin over any change?
The post, links and full charts can be seen here.
submitted by thefiexpl to fiaustralia [link] [comments]

I am the creator of BitcoinDuLiban.org. I am on a mission to educate Lebanese about the importance and usefulness of Bitcoins in their lives. AMA

What is Bitcoin?

Bitcoin (₿) (ticker BTC)is an open source cryptocurrency. It is a decentralized cryptographic currency without a central bank or single administrator in control that can be sent from user to user on the peer-to-peer bitcoin network without the need for 3rd person in between like bank, or payment processor or institution all transaction processing and verification is carried out collectively by the network.
Find out more at http://www.bitcoinduliban.org/

Why Bitcoin is the future?

Bitcoin emerged in 2009 as more economies across the world started losing trust in the current banking model. Institutions that have been around longer than ourselves have changed very little throughout our lifetime. Not only does the lack of trust, and stagnant change of banks allow Bitcoin to thrive, but also the possibility of eliminating inflation. Bitcoin saw the opportunity to take the power out of the institutions and provide a better service, and the people responded. Bitcoin operates universally, meaning for the first time, there is a possibility of a global currency. With truly international currency possibilities for global economic growth, social equality, self-sovereignty is endless.

Why Bitcoin and not others?

It is a very good question, there at the moment of writing over 2000 projects and “coins” that emerged after Bitcoin. Many of them claim to be faster, better and more flexible than Bitcoin however very few have withstood the test of time or delivered their proposed product. The basic fundamentals of Bitcoin’s principle monetary policy are unprecedented, and by now, it is impossible to replicate its level of decentralization or network security, which is powered by a computer network as powerful as almost 12 trillion Intel Core i7 processors. Bitcoin also has the largest social / community strength. I would HIGHLY advise against investing or getting dragged into any project that claims superiority, I have single rule : if it says it's better than Bitcoin then its what we call “scam-coin” you will only get pulled in and lose your bitcoin/usd value causing a lot of pain and sadness . Sit down, read, learn and be patient, you will not miss out on anything over night and if something is rising in price quickly most likely it will crash as fast.

Does bitcoin have an applicable use in daily life or is it only for holding for future gains?

Bitcoin has taken over the cryptocurrency market. It’s the largest and most well-known digital currency today. Many large companies are accepting Bitcoin as a legitimate source of funds, you can use your Bitcoin at but not limited to : KFC, Burger King, Microsoft, AT&T , Expedia, Subway, Twitch, Virgin Galactic and many more just look it up. You can look up merc and services at https://spendabit.co/ So if you are living abroad, you can use your bitcoin just like any other known currency in addition there are Debit cards in collaboration with VISA network offers that are backed by Bitcoin making you able to pay with it anywhere in the world just with a swipe or tap.

As Lebanese in Lebanon, how can I buy or sell bitcoin ?

In Lebanon unfortunately we can not use our banking system to purchase bitcoin, there was a time where rain.bh an UAE based exchange was accepting Lebanese Cards, till it was stopped but give it a try we weren’t able to confirm all cards.
Therefore most common way to buy bitcoin in lebanon is using P2P which is person to person exchange, this can be through an international website such as localbitcoins.com or hodlhodl.com , all you gotta do is find a sell offer initiate transaction with seller , send him his payment using WesterUnion or Moneygram and once the seller receives payment your bitcoins will be released but make sure you use escrow service which ensures safety of your transaction therefore bitcoins you are buying are frozen for the seller and he can not retrieve them unless you fail to pay or run out of time window to pay. Another p2p way is through local bitcoin communities , there are plenty of traders willing to exchange with you however always ask for the reputation of the seller inside a group and never respond to private messages unless it is a confirmed reliable trader just to avoid losing and being scammed. Feel free to find out more about how to buy in Lebanon at http://www.bitcoinduliban.org/

If I have a bank account outside Lebanon, can I use bitcoin to transfer money from Lebanon to my bank account outside?

It is possible to transfer Bitcoin to an international account in the USA or EU for example, you would need to use recognized exchanges such as coinbase.com kraken.com and many others. It would be as simple as sending BTC to your coinbase account, converting to USD and withdrawing it to your account. However you must take few precautions, if you are sending a significant amount of BTC and converting it to USD you will need some kind of proof that these funds are yours otherwise you might get investigated for money laundering. So is it convenient to send ? I do not think so, if you managed to get what we call now in Lebanon “ Fresh USD” it would be much less of a hassle to simply initiate an international transaction.

Why would I want to send Bitcoin to my family or friends in Lebanon ?

This is where I believe BTC can shine for us, you can use exchanges as coinbase,kraken or any prefered place to purchase some bitcoin that can be transferred to your family wallet within minutes. Your family or friends can exchange bitcoin or part that is needed with local traders to LBP at desired exchange rate therefore you are not forced to exchange at rates given by WesterUnion, after which they will be able to do their daily purchases and mitigate inflation rates to some extent. You can send as little as $1 and the transaction costs less than $1 for any amount.

Why is the Bitcoin price so volatile ?

Indeed it can be, sudden swings of 20% both ways are considered normal if you look at daily data, however bitcoin since 2009 had only one trend which is upward, 80% chance is if you bought BTC at any moment in past 2 years is that you are on break even or positive not loss. Feel free to try this exercise by going to https://dcabtc.com/

Should I invest?

NO. Now since we got the short version of this, let me elaborate. By the end of the day it is a new class of an asset, the price is still in the discovery phase and it could cause a lot of pain and sleepless nights if you invest more than you can chew to possibly lose. No one can advice you what to do with your money and how to position them, however i highly encourage to read, educate yourself on money before investing in BTC a good start would be https://bitcoinduliban.org. Please ask more knowledgeable bitcoin users and double check sources , once you feel confident enough that you understand this monetary system you can try dipping your toes with small amounts and build your position from there. Just stay away from quick gains schemes such as “online mining” “cloud mining” and anything that offers 100% returns in a very short time, if it's too good to be true then it's a scam.

Scams, BE AWARE.

Due to our difficult situation we are being targeted by constant advertisement of potential new solutions using “newly developed cryptocurrencies“ , unfortunately such new technology does not exist and they are trying to take advantage of us by promising fake solutions.
Even Bitcoin can not provide you with a solution to your hard worked money being inaccessible in any Lebanese bank.
Here are few typical scam msgs:
submitted by marceldy to lebanon [link] [comments]

Why choose Bitcoin Cash?

Some of you might be coming to this sub, and wondering why so many people support Bitcoin Cash. This is directly answered in the pinned FAQ, and also briefly goes over the history of the sub. Now onto why Bitcoin Cash has huge potential when it comes to changing the world:
Bitcoin Cash was created with the purpose of bringing economic freedom to everyone all across the globe. With the current banking, financial, and payment systems, there are many issues when it comes to the usability of money. These issues are:
- Sending money across the globe without having to pay high fees (percentage fees), and waiting days or even weeks for your transfer to go through
- Having payment options like Visa and Mastercard that help deal with high-volume business, but having to pay a flat fee ($0.15), and a fee of 2%-3% per purchase
- Having full control over your money, so the government can't devalue your savings by printing more money for their personal interests
- Being able to use your money however you like, without having to get permission from an intermediary, middleman, or financial institution
- Being able to know how much money will be circulating at any given time in the future
- Paying high fees (4%+) for converting currency when travelling
Let's take a look at how Bitcoin Cash solves these problems:
Remittance
When it comes to sending money across the globe from one bank account to another, often times the fees will be very high because when your bank is sending money, it has to go through several intermediary banks that each take from the initial amount of money, making the process slow, and expensive. Currently, Western Union is advertising "free" transfers of currency across the globe. Seems like a good deal, right? Well here's the thing: they're tricking you into thinking that transfers are free when they're actually making money off of the exchange rate. We believe that money (digital cash) should be as frictionless as possible, and that a user shouldn't have to deal with transfer fees, and have to get permission to transfer their money from one bank to another. Currently, the fees on Bitcoin Cash are only $0.0007, and we plan on keeping them that low.
Payment Systems
When it comes to traditional payment systems, like Visa, Mastercard, and American Express, credit card companies often charge a 2%-3% fee on every transaction that takes place, and a transaction can take anywhere from 24-36 hours to confirm, and go into a merchant's bank account. These payment systems are both slow and expensive. With Bitcoin Cash, your funds are available instantly for you to spend, but if you want to take extra security measures, you can always wait ~10 minutes for a confirmation to go through.
Control Over Your Own Money
With the banking system as we currently know it, one of the biggest problems is the lack of control your have over your own money. Every year, people are forced to pay taxes to politicians only to have their money basically wasted on providing effectively nothing to them. Bitcoin Cash solves this problem by giving you full control over your money. Making a wallet does not require anyone to give ID, personal information, or anything that could potentially lead to the government having any say in what you can do with your hard-earned money. Another issue with traditional currencies is the inflationary nature of them. This is another form of taxation that doesn't appear to be as bad as taxing, but it's just a different way of taking money from the hands of citizens. When the government prints more money, your savings get devalued, meaning that the government has effectively stolen money without physically "stealing" it. With Bitcoin Cash, the inflation relies on a purely mathematical system in which the maximum number of Bitcoins will always be 21 million. With mathematical certainty, you can always be sure of the exact supply of Bitcoins based on the block number. I made a graph that helps illustrate this with >99.99997% accuracy on how many Bitcoin Cash will be in circulation based on the block height. This works for Bitcoin, and Bitcoin SV too. You can check the accuracy by putting the block height/number in the brackets of the second expression.
Currency Conversion
Have you ever travelled to another country where you had to convert to the local currency in order to be able to use it? If so, you would've realized that conversion rates can often be very high, and it is impractical to do unless you're converting a large sum of money. Our idea is to increase merchant adoption so that Bitcoin Cash can have its own economy, so it doesn't matter where in the world you are, you can always use Bitcoin Cash, and not have to worry about conversion fees. If you want to "convert" to another currency, you can always use SLP tokens that will eventually come in a variety of local fiat currencies in the near future. Tether USDT is already planning to make SLP tokens too. This is also a great alternative if you aren't sure whether you want to put your money into crypto, and want to stick with fiat instead. Think of SLP tokens as "paper" tokens on top of Bitcoin Cash that can be sent and received for fractions of a penny!
How to use Bitcoin Cash for Buying Goods and Services
Right now, there are many ways you can use Bitcoin Cash, including local usage, and online usage. If you want to see which merchants near you accept Bitcoin Cash, you can check using map.bitcoin.com and see which local merchants are accepting Bitcoin Cash. If you want to buy things online, you can use purse.io, and get 30% off on any Amazon purchase, so you contribute to the economy of growing Bitcoin Cash, and get a great deal for any item you want to buy!
TL;DR: Bitcoin Cash is sound money which you have full control over your own money, and allows you to send any amount of money, anywhere in the world, instantly, and practically for free. If you have any additional questions, feel free to comment.
Resources:
Bitcoin Inflation Graph: https://www.desmos.com/calculatolaijpbrh4s
Buy things on Amazon using Bitcoin Cash: https://purse.io/shop
purse.io chrome extension: https://chrome.google.com/webstore/detail/purse-shop-with-bitcoin-b/amdginnpaflghjbbdkfenpekaeifnpee
See which local merchants accept Bitcoin Cash: https://map.bitcoin.com/
Wallets with Bitcoin Cash: Electron Cash, Bitcoin.com Wallet, Exodus, Badger Wallet
Bitcoin Cash website: https://bitcoincash.org
submitted by 1MightBeAPenguin to btc [link] [comments]

A Market Liquidity Theory of the Current Financial Crisis

Huge update from the Fed this morning: https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20200323b.htm
I'm not going to have a chance to look through this in detail this morning, but it looks like the Fed might be engaging in a massive loan program and taking just about anything as collateral.
This is going to be a long post and analysis that I have written as much to get my thoughts in order as much to post on here for any feedback or criticism.
Essentially, like many on here, I do not believe that the current situation is a temporary down-turn, but a full blown financial crisis. We have already been hit with the initial shock of this crisis, so the question becomes: what comes next? Helping us understand what is fundamentally happening in the market will aid in making intelligent future predictions and investments. That leads to the question: what exactly is happening in the market right now? What caused us to suddenly drive off a cliff? And is there any way we can save it? Unlikely many here, I do not believe that COVID-19 is the actual underlying crisis. In my opinion, our economy was basically the end stages of a Jenga game, and COVID-19 is just the swift breeze knocking the whole thing over.
As I started looking for the next big market move, I started to wonder who was going to feel the most pain in these markets. Some reading led me to the thought that what we were seeing in the markets was a liquidity issue, and that companies with poor credit ratings will be most affected. I posted about this a couple of days ago, and several others came to the same conclusion as me. 1 2 3. There are other obliviously other problems in the market at the moment, but this analysis will focus on this problem in particular.
I now strongly believe that this hypothesis was correct, even if my initial reasoning and analysis was flawed. I outline a theory, followed by some supporting evidence, and finally some speculation. Finally, I don't think the Fed understands the actual problem the market is facing right now, nor does it have the tools to deal with it.
There are three prerequisites here: repos, collateral transformation, and rehypothecated collateral
Variation-Separate has already written an excellent technical analysis, and explains repos in part I. I will assume you have already read that section. 2
The basic idea behind collateral transforms is this: Your company needs some short-term liquid cash. In order for someone to give you this cash, you need collateral. You only have risky assets (such as junk bonds), but no one will accept them as collateral precisely because they are risky. Everyone in the market wants a secure asset (such as a Treasury). Instead of giving up, you go out and find someone who will loan you their Treasury and accept your junk bonds as collateral. You then use that Treasury to obtain the cash you need. This process can be repeated among many parties in order to create a "collateral chain".
Finally, we have rehypothecated collateral: Someone comes to you and wants to borrow an assets for a short period of time (such as a stock). They give you another asset (such as cash) as collateral in exchange for the stock. You know the borrower won't be back to collect this collateral for a while, so you invest that collateral to make money off of it in the meantime.
As Variation-Separate explains, there have been problems in the repo market recently, and the Fed has acted as the believe appropriate. However, this is not the first time the Fed has run into this problem . In fact, we had a problem a problem in the repo market just in Sept 2019 and "Not only did the spike in the repo rate come as a surprise to the New York Fed, but they also haven't been able to normalize it as quickly as they thought they could". Finally, let's consider that even though the fed has offered to pump massive amounts of liquidity into the market, banks aren't taking it and are quickly repaying that which they do take.
What exactly is going on then? The Fed tries to pump liquidity into the economy, and nothing happens. The reason for this is that the Fed knows that it doesn't understand the underlying problem in the market, and knows that is powerless to stop it. The Fed is trying to unleash every tool in its toolbox on the hope that if it just throws enough money into the market, eventually the problem will go away.
So what is the root problem? Essentially, liquidity. More specifically, collateral transformations and rehypothecated collateral. In fact, this has been written about extensively: 4 5, with Snider in particular making a strong case that today's crisis fits the analysis of the collateral markets that he provided in 2018: 6
How are collateral transformations and rehypothecated collateral affecting liquidity in the markets? There are numerous ways, but let's start with 2:
Let's say someone gives you cash as collateral, and you rehypothecate it as described in the example. However, instead of putting the cash in a safe asset, knowing you have to repay it, you put it in a very risky, high-yield asset such as a junk bond or MBS. Things go wrong, you lose your money and can't pay back your end of the repo. This is exactly what AIG did during the 2008 crisis. 7
Now let's say you engage in a long chain of collateral transformations. You start with a really risk assets, trade that for a sligtly less risky asset, trade that for a moderately risky asset, etc, until you eventually get a pristine asset. Now anyone along that chain can rehypothecate their collateral into some risky investment, causing a huge number of problems. Not to mention that if you, for some reason, can't fulfill your end of the repo, you screw a whole chain of people who have traded with you.
Now, if we are in a strong market, these problems won't arise too often. But what happens if, say, a virus comes out of now where causing wide-spread economic disruptions? Now, maybe those risky investments that would have paid out more often than not aren't pay out at all, causing systemic problems.
Now let's add a couple of things that exacerbate this problem even further:
These chains get so complicated that no one even knows who owns which assets anymore 4
When these chains collateral transformations start to fail, people may become less willing to take the risk of engaging in them 5
All of this caused heavy regulation on the exchange of collateral by primary lenders after the 2008 crisis. This has pushed these transactions into dark markets where we don't really understand what is going on. Here is my hypothesis, heavily taken from Snider's analysis:
Corporations have become heavily reliant on short-term lending for liquidity. However, most of them don't have pristine assets to exchange for cash, or DisneyBucks to float them through hard times. So what to do? You engage in collateral transformations: keep exchanging your junk assets until you get the pristine assets you need to get liquid cash. A bunch of corporations do this over and over again, and eventually they really don't have a clear of idea of what assets they really own.
Further, in these collateral chains they are rehypothecating collateral to make a quick buck. All is well, until this virus comes along. Suddenly, corporations are losing their collateral in these risky investments. Further, they need cash. The first thing they do is try to transform their collateral for short term liquidity. However, a bunch of people have just lost their money playing this game and don't want to play anymore, so it becomes more difficult and expensive for the companies to engage in these collateral transformations. The assets they have are worth less, so they have to sell other assets to compensate. However, everyone is doing this at the same time, devaluing the assets. Devaluation of assets makes it even more expensive to engage in collateral exchanges, and the cycle continues. Finally, when these companies take account of their actual assets, after all of these complicated exchanges, they realize they don't actually own what they think they own, creating additional panic when they are already in crisis mode. This causes huge turmoil, and the markets fall off a cliff.
If this theory is correct, what will we see next? Whether the markets will go up or down is dependent on too many factors to predict. However, I do have some speculation. First let's categorize corporations as follows:
Type I: Safe
Large banking institutions
Large P-1/A-1/F1+ Companies
Companies with huge cash reserves
Type II: Possibly Safe
Small businesses
"Essential" business (i.e., Boeing)
Type III: Doomed
Business with >500 employees, no large cash reserves, not P-1/A-1/F1+
The self-employed
Type I businesses will certainly weather the storm. If they don't have the direct support of the Fed, they have large cash reserves on hand. If they don't have large cash reserves on hand, they have the credit rating to make use of corporate paper. They can find the short term funding needed to make it through this.
Type II businesses may be safe depending on the government response. I am currently underwhelmed by the "support" for small business in the stimulus bill, but there seems to at least be talk about this so maybe things will change. "Essential" businesses may receive a bailout to get them through tough times.
Type III businesses are completely screwed, no one seems to know they are even there. They won't qualify for support as "small businesses", and they have no way of obtaining liquid assets in this market. In particular, the larger businesses don't have the pristine assets to obtain liquidity in these markets, they are dependent on collateral transforms.
I won't predict whether the markets will go up or down this week, next, etc. But I will speculate this: I think the calm we saw in the markets was an actual calm. I think there was panic as businesses tried to obtain liquidity. They now believe they have the liquidity to make it through the near future, and are satisfied. There could be fire-sales in the near term for other reasons, but I don't think short-term liquidity will be the cause. However, most corporations don't speculate very hard when it comes to the future: they listen to the "experts". And these "experts" in government and the financials have been predicting doom and gloom for the next couple weeks, but that things will "bounce back" afterward. This is flatly false. As this becomes more apparent to these companies, I think we'll see another run on the market.
Particularly, it will be the large Type III business that will be the most vulnerable. They won't have any government stimulus support, and they won't have access to their normal modes of obtain cash. The last panic in the markets pushed bond yields so high that issuing new bonds will be completely out of the question. For them, it will be like a game of chess where your 4 moves away from being mated no matter what you do. Many of them will decide that bankruptcy is the best option in front of them.
Can the Fed prevent this? I don't think so. The Fed has the ability to soak up P-1/A-1/F1+, but they can only do this through the banks. But the banks aren't the ones in trouble this time, its the market itself. I have not read anything that leads me to believe that the Fed would be able to purchase junk assets from non- P-1/A-1/F1+ corporations without an act of Congress, and Congress is too slow and incompetent to see this problem coming or fix it in time. The Colosseum will be protected as Rome burns around it.
Sorry for any typos, poor wording. This was a long post.
submitted by the_asker_man to wallstreetbets [link] [comments]

Cardano FAQ - V2

Cardano FAQ
What is Cardano? Cardano is an open source highly secure "Third Generation" blockchain project being developed by IOHK. Development and research started in 2015, with the 1.0 mainnet launching in 2017. Cardano blockchain is currently being developed into two layers. The first one is the ledger of account values, and the second one is the reason why values are transferred from one account to the other.
  1. Cardano Settlement Layer (CSL) - The CSL acts as the ledger of account or balance ledger. This is an idea created as an improvement of bitcoin blockchain. It uses a proof-of-stake consensus algorithm to generate new blocks and confirm transactions.
  2. Cardano Computation Layer (CCL) - The CCL contains the data how values are transferred. Since the computation layer is not connected to balance ledger, users of the CCL can create customized rules when evaluating transactions. (https://support.bitkub.com/hc/en-us/articles/360006678892-What-are-the-two-layers-of-Cardano-)
IOHK has the contract with an undisclosed party to develop the project until the end of 2020, at which point the community may elect another - on the assumption that the voting infrastructure has been completed. However CEO Charles Hoskinson has stated that they will develop the project until it is completed, and they are simply financed until the end of 2020.
Cardano was the first project built on a peer-reviewed scientific development method, resulting in dozens of research papers produced by IOHK. Among these papers is Ouroboros Genesis, proving that a Proof of Stake protocol can be just as secure as Proof of Work, which was originally developed for Bitcoin, and refined for Ethereum. This PoS protocol considerably lowers the resources cost to maintain network while still maintaining security and network speed.
Cardano as a financial infrastructure is not yet completed, With significant development to be rolled out.
What were the other two generations of blockchain? Gen 1 was Bitcoin. It exists by itself and talks to nobody but bitcoin. It is capable of peer to peer transactions without a third party in such a way that you cannot cheat the system. this was a major step forward for the E-cash concept.
Gen 2 was Ethereum and other smart-contract platforms that allow other coins to be built on top of their infrastructure. These coins can interact with others on the platform, but cannot interact with other platforms like Stella, Bitcoin, cardano - and so on. Also most Gen 2 blockchains are also using Proof of Work likes Bitcoin, which effects scaling.
Gen 3 blockchains are using Proof of Stake to ensure scaling, Sidechains to allow the platform to interact with other platforms, like ethereum and bitcoin, and also include smart contracts that are developer friendly.
Who is the team behind Cardano? There are three organisations that are contributing to the development of Cardano. The first is the Cardano Foundation, an objective, non-profit organisation based in Switzerland. Its core responsibilities are to nurture, grow and educate Cardano users and commercial communities, to engage with authorities on regulatory and commercial matters and to act as a blockchain and cryptocurrency standards body. The second entity working on Cardano is IOHK, a leading cryptocurrency research and development company, which holds the contract to develop the platform until 2020. The final business partner is Emurgo, which invests in start-ups and assists commercial ventures to build on the Cardano blockchain. (from https://www.cardano.org/en/help-support/)
What is the difference between PoS and PoW? Both these protocols are known as “consensus protocols” that confirm whether a transaction is valid or invalid without a middleman like Visa or your bank. Every node (active and updated copy of the blockchain) can agree that the transaction did take place legitimately. If more than half the network agrees, then the transaction is validated. Proof-of-Work (PoW) happens when a miner solves an exceptionally difficult math problem and gets credit for adding a verified block to the blockchain. Finding a solution is an arduous guessing game that takes a considerable amount of computing power to compete for the correct answer. It is like “pick a number between 1 and one trillion” and when you get it right, you get $30,000 in Bitcoin, so the more computers you have working on it, the faster you can solve it. Also the more people who are trying to solve the same block, the harder the algorithm, so it may become 1 in 20 trillion. The downside is the massive amounts of power required to run the computers that run the network, and the slow pace that blocks are solved. To “Hack” a PoW system, you need 51% of the computing power, which would allow you to deny transactions, or spend the same coin twice.
PoS instead selects a coin at random that already exists, and the person who owns that coin is elected to put the work in to validate the block. This means there is no contest and no guessing game. Some computer power is required, but only a fraction of a PoW system. The complex nature of selecting a coin that exists on the correct and longest chain and is owned by someone who can complete the block, AND in such a way that it is secure AND that computer currently running AND that person also having an incentive to complete the work, has made the development of PoS very slow. However only a few years ago it wasn’t even possible. In this method, the more of the coin (ADA) you stake, the more likely you are to be selected to close a block. Cardano also allows you to delegate your stake to someone else to validate the block so they do the work, and you share in the reward for doing so.
To “hack” a PoS blockchain you need to own 51% of the tokens, which is significantly harder than owning 51% of the computing power.
What is ADA and how is it different to Cardano? Cardano is the name of the network infrastructure, and can be thought of like a rail network. ADA is the native token that has been developed alongside Cardano to facilitate the network operation. This helps confusion and maintains distinction, compared to Ethereum being the native token of Ethereum. Similar to bitcoin or any other token, ADA can be sent peer to peer as payment, but is also the reward for running the network, and what is taken as transaction fees.
In this metaphor “Cardano” is the train tracks, that everything runs on. A stake pool would be the locomotive, facilitating transactions on the network while ADA is the coal that powers the locomotive. The train carriages are Decentralised applications (Dapps) that are also running on cardano tracks, but are not actively powering the network.
What is staking Cardano is a Proof of Stake protocol, and uses already existing coins like a marker to ensure security. The protocol chooses a coin at random and the owner of that coin is elected to validate a block of transactions. Staking is the process of adding your ADA coins to a Pool that has the resources to run the network. If the pool you have chosen to "delegate" your stake to is chosen to close/validate a block, then you get a portion of the rewards. The ADA never leaves your wallet, and you can "undelegate" whenever you like. this increases stability of the network and also gives an incentive to pool operators to invest the time and hardware required to run a pool.
What is a stake-pool and how does it work? A stake pool is where the computing power of the network takes place. Currently there are 1200 registered stake pools while 300 are creating blocks. You can manage your own stake-pool or delegate your ADA to an already registered pool. Rewards are determined by the protocol, however the pool may elect to charge fee Percentages, or flat rate fee to upkeep their pool.
Can I Stake my ADA right now? If you had ADA in a Yoroi or Daedalus wallet before November 2019 then yes, you can stake. However if you have just purchased some or it was held on an exchange, then you will need to wait until August 18 (hopefully) for pools to start creating blocks, and first staking rewards will be 5 days later.
Where do I stake my ADA? Daedalus Flight wallet - Or Daedalus ITN, and Yoroi Wallet (as a chrome extension) are the current best options.
What are the staking rewards now and what can I expect on a return in the future? At the moment the Incentivised Test Net (ITN) is delivering 10%-15%pa returns on average. The future of staking will most likely be lower, but will depend on the amount of ADA staked across the network and the amount of network traffic. However it should not be completely dissimilar from the ITN, with most speculating 6%-10%pa compounding weekly….at this point there is no solid answer
what is a Pledge? To stop one person operating many pools, the rewards that a pool earns will vary depending on the amount of personal ADA they “pledge” to open the pool. This means that 100 pools with a 10,00ADA pledge will be overall less profitable than 1 pool with 1,000,000 ADA pledge. (at least that is the theory)
Who is IOHK? IOHK is a for-profit software engineering company founded by CEO Charles Hoskinson and Jeremy Wood in 2015 that has taken a scientific approach to the development of blockchain. IOHK started with “first principles” and looked at questions like “what is a blockchain” and “what should a blockchain be able to do” rather than accepting the established paradigm of Bitcoin and Ethereum. IOHK was originally Input Output Hong Kong, but is now Input Output Global and is based in Wyoming USA employing over 230 staff. IOHK has established research labs in several universities in order to complete the Cardano project, and is also developing Ethereum Classic, Atilia, Mantis and possibly other Blockchain related programs and infrastructure.
Who is Charles? Charles Hoskinson is an American entrepreneur and cryptocurrency specialist. Charles is often cited in the media as the Co-founder of Ethereum, but only worked on that project for approximately six-months. Charles is now the CEO of IOHK and the director of The Bitcoin Education Project.
Why isn’t ADA on coinbase? There is no official word specifically as to why Cardano is not on Coinbase, However there prevailing theory is that Coinbase requires the coins to be decentralised. and as Cardano is still being developed, it will not be added Shelley is released, or possibly never, it is totally up to coinbase. However Charles did mention in an AMA that IOG has been working with many exchanges for the Shelley rollout.
Why Doesn’t Cardano have a Wikipedia Page? Wikipedia has strict guidelines on what can be turned into an article. As there has been no coverage of Cardano from mainstream media or “noteworthy” sources, there is no article yet. Wikipedia will also not accept sources from IOHK as they are not considered “reliable” and must come from a third party. This will most likely change soon.
Cardano does have a dedicated community driven wiki
https://cardanowiki.info/wiki/Home
submitted by YourBestMateRobbo to cardano [link] [comments]

Cardano FAQ - V1 - Feedback requested

Cardano FAQ
What is Cardano? - Cardano is an open source highly secure blockchain 3.0 project being developed by IOHK. Development and research started in 2015, with the 1.0 mainnet launching in 2017. Cardano blockchain is currently being developed into two layers. The first one is the ledger of account values and the second one is the reason why values are transferred from one account to the other.
  1. Cardano Settlement Layer (CSL) - The CSL acts as the ledger of account or balance ledger. This is an idea created as an improvement of bitcoin blockchain. It uses a proof-of-stake consensus algorithm to generate new blocks and confirm transactions.
  2. Cardano Computation Layer (CCL) - The CCL contains the data how values are transferred. Since the computation layer is not connected to balance ledger, users of the CCL can create customized rules when evaluating transactions. (https://support.bitkub.com/hc/en-us/articles/360006678892-What-are-the-two-layers-of-Cardano-)
IHOK has the contract with an undisclosed party to develop the project until the end of 2020, at which point the community may elect another - on the assumption that the voting infrastructure has been completed. However CEO Charles Hoskinson has stated that they will develop the project until it is completed, and they are simply financed until the end of 2020.
Cardano was the first project built on a peer-reviewed scientific development method, resulting in dozens of research papers produced by IOHK. Amongst these papers is Ouroboros Genesis, proving that a Proof of Stake protocol can be just as secure as Proof of Work, which was originally developed for Bitcoin, and refined for Ethereum. This PoS protocol considerably lowers the resources cost to maintain network while still maintaining security and network speed.
Cardano as a financial infrastructure is not yet completed, With significant development to be rolled out.
Who is the team behind Cardano? There are three organisations that are contributing to the development of Cardano. The first is the Cardano Foundation, an objective, non-profit organisation based in Switzerland. Its core responsibilities are to nurture, grow and educate Cardano users and commercial communities, to engage with authorities on regulatory and commercial matters and to act as a blockchain and cryptocurrency standards body. The second entity working on Cardano is IOHK, a leading cryptocurrency research and development company, which holds the contract to develop the platform until 2020. The final business partner is Emurgo, which invests in start-ups and assists commercial ventures to build on the Cardano blockchain. (from https://www.cardano.org/en/help-support/)
What is the difference between PoS and PoW? Both these protocols are known as “consensus protocols” that confirm whether a transaction is valid or invalid without a middleman like Visa or your bank. Every node (active and updated copy of the blockchain) can agree that the transaction did take place legitimately. If more than half the network agrees, then the transaction is validated. Proof-of-Work (PoW) happens when a miner solves an exceptionally difficult math problem and gets credit for adding a verified block to the blockchain. Finding a solution is an arduous guessing game that takes a considerable amount of computing power to compete for the correct answer. It is like “pick a number between 1 and one trillion” and when you get it right, you get $30,000 in Bitcoin, so the more computers you have working on it, the faster you can solve it. Also the more people who are trying to solve the same block, the harder the algorithm, so it may become 1 in 20 trillion. The downside is the massive amounts of power required to run the computers that run the network, and the slow pace that blocks are solved. To “Hack” a PoW system, you need 51% of the computing power, which would allow you to deny transactions, or spend the same coin twice.
PoS instead selects a coin at random that already exists, and the person who owns that coin is elected to put the work in to validate the block. This means there is no contest and no guessing game. Some computer power is required, but only a fraction of a PoW system. The complex nature of selecting a coin that exists on the correct and longest chain and is owned by someone who can complete the block, AND in such a way that it is secure AND that computer currently running AND that person also having an incentive to complete the work, has made the development of PoS very slow. However only a few years ago it wasn’t even possible. In this method, the more of the coin (ADA) you stake, the more likely you are to be selected to close a block. Cardano also allows you to delegate your stake to someone else to validate the block so they do the work, and you share in the reward for doing so.
To “hack” a PoS blockchain you need to own 51% of the tokens, which is significantly harder than owning 51% of the computing power.
What is ADA and how is it different to Cardano?
Cardano is the name of the network infrastructure, and can be thought of like a rail network. ADA is the native token that has been developed alongside Cardano to facilitate the network operation. This helps confusion and maintains distinction, compared to Ethereum being the native token of Ethereum. Similar to bitcoin or any other token, ADA can be sent peer to peer as payment, but is also the reward for running the network, and what is taken as transaction fees.
In this metaphor “Cardano” is the train tracks, that everything runs on. A stake pool would be the locomotive, facilitating transactions on the network while ADA is the coal that powers the locomotive. The train carriages are Decentralised applications (Dapps) that are also running on cardano tracks, but are not actively powering the network.
Can I Stake my ADA right now? If you had ADA in a Yoroi or Daedalus wallet before November 2019 then yes, you can stake. However if you have just purchased some or it was held on an exchange, then you will need to wait until August 18 (hopefully) for the release of the full staking capability. Where do I stake my ADA? Daedalus Flight wallet - Or Daedalus ITN, and Yoroi Wallet (as a chrome extension) are the current best options.
What are the staking rewards now and what can I expect on a return in the future? At the moment the Incentivised Test Net (ITN) is delivering 10%-15%pa returns on average. The future of staking will most likely be lower, but will depend on the amount of ADA staked across the network and the amount of network traffic. However it should not be completely dissimilar from the ITN, with most speculating 6%-10%pa compounding weekly….at this point there is no solid answer
What is a stake-pool and how does it work? A stake pool is where the computing power of the network takes place. Currently there are 1200 registered stake pools while 300 are creating blocks. You can manage your own stake-pool or delegate your ADA to an already registered pool. Rewards are determined by the protocol, however the pool may elect to charge fee Percentages, or flat rate fee to upkeep their pool.
what is a Pledge? To stop one person operating many pools, the rewards that a pool earns will vary depending on the amount of personal ADA they “pledge” to open the pool. This means that 100 pools with a 10,00ADA pledge will be overall less profitable than 1 pool with 1,000,000 ADA pledge. (at least that is the theory)
Who is IOHK? IOHK is a for-profit software engineering company founded by CEO Charles Hoskinson and Jeremy Wood in 2015 that has taken a scientific approach to the development of blockchain. IOHK started with “first principles” and looked at questions like “what is a blockchain” and “what should a blockchain be able to do” rather than accepting the established paradigm of Bitcoin and Ethereum. IOHK was originally Input Output Hong Kong, but is now Input Output Global and is based in Wyoming USA employing over 230 staff. IOHK has established research labs in several universities in order to complete the Cardano project, and is also developing Ethereum Classic, Atilia, Mantis and possibly other Blockchain related programs and infrastructure.
Who is Charles? Charles Hoskinson is an American entrepreneur and cryptocurrency specialist. Charles is often cited in the media as the Co-founder of Ethereum, but only worked on that project for approximately six-months. Charles is now the CEO of IOHK and the director of The Bitcoin Education Project.
Why isn’t ADA on coinbase? Coinbase requires the coins to essentially be “finished” and as Cardano is still being developed, it will not be added until there is more development rolled out.
Why Doesn’t Cardano have a Wikipedia Page? Wikipedia has strict guidelines on what can be turned into an article. As there has been no coverage of Cardano from mainstream media or “noteworthy” sources, there is no article yet. Wikipedia will also not accept sources from IOHK as they are not considered “reliable” and must come from a third party. This will most likely change soon.
submitted by YourBestMateRobbo to cardano [link] [comments]

The current situation in crypto mining and crypto market

The current situation in crypto mining and crypto market
The March drop in the cost of bitcoin to a minimum of $ 3800 and the upcoming halving forced the manufacturers of mining devices to reduce the price of their products. In some cases, the equipment for mining has become cheaper by more than 20%. Most ASIC miners have already decreased in price since the end of last year, as they are valued based on the fact that the buyer will need an average of 15 months to return on their investment. Manufacturers adjust the cost of their devices based on this payback period in accordance with the bitcoin market rate and network complexity.
The situation was complicated by the halving in Bitcoin price, which will take place in May. The reward for the mined block in the bitcoin network was reduced by half, as a result, most devices became less profitable.
Earlier, Coin Metrics analysts said that many miners “capitulate” after the bitcoin halving. Experts said that current cryptocurrency price levels are “almost certainly” below the breakeven point for the least efficient miners. However, when this cycle ends, the industry should return to a healthier state, which, in turn, will positively affect the future growth of the value of the cryptocurrency.


Thus, mining became less profitable. However, if you realize that decentralized cryptocurrency is the future and you want to earn, you know what you need to do. Trade. Not only trading is a viable option, but also it is much more profitable than mining.
SwapZilla brings together all exchanges, all tokens, all news streams, and all tools. SwapZilla gives everybody a opportunity to effectively interact and exchange information and data.
Through our platform, users will be able to:
  • get convenient access to the widest possible range of crypto assets;
  • crypto exchanges will be able to multiply their client base and get additional sources of income.
submitted by SwapzillaSupport to SwapZilla [link] [comments]

How to make 1 billion people use Beam ?

Let 1 billion people use Beam !

So how can Beam make it available to 1 billion people?

The main problems facing Beam now: I personally, I am a fan of Beam , I have tried to find ways to use Beam more. As far as my personal daily life is concerned, where can I use digital currency, currently Both can be resolved with currency .

But real demand determines real value, and real value determines price. So what should we do with the road to trillions of market value of Beam ?

According to the theory of minimum network effects, if the first 100,000 people can use Beam , a preliminary network effect will be formed, and 1 billion people will use Beam in the future . Where are the first 100,000 people just now? Where is the real demand for digital currency?

I summarize in three words: Innovation, illegal, restricted .

Let's talk about innovation : If you want to allow traditional companies and merchants to accept digital currency, it may be more difficult to consider issues such as audience accuracy, laws, and compliance.

But for emerging companies, Internet companies, high-tech companies, and especially blockchain native companies, these companies should be the easiest to accept digital currencies.

A small win is a big win, and a small amount is a big trend. These companies are the spark of the widespread digital currency in the future.

Regarding illegal acts : such as drugs, gambling, etc., this is a bit awkward. It is these illegal acts that really have a strong and rigid need for digital currencies, and the anonymity of digital currencies also objectively facilitates illegal acts.

However, this point violates the law after all, and does not conform to the good public order and customs of the society. Therefore, we do not encourage this point, but it is also difficult to eliminate it.

Finally, talk about restrictions : In the current payment and settlement system with fiat currencies as the main body, many behaviors are restricted.

For example, P2P and equity payment acceptance payment systems are restricted. For example, some special industries need to go through many procedures to access the existing payment system. There are also restrictions on the amount of large transfers, such as the impact of exchange rates that are difficult to eliminate when cross-border payments and many more,

Where these fiat currency payments are restricted, it is also the main area of ​​digital currency development.

The goal of digital currency is not to replace or compete with fiat currencies, but to make up for the deficiencies of fiat currencies and compete with fiat currencies where they lack competitiveness, thereby bringing greater convenience to society.

I'm not going to lie to you and say that Beam is guaranteed to one day become the next world reserve currency. Far from it. There is still a ton of work that needs to be done in order to scale the system to serve the global economy. But I do believe that Beam has the best chance of achieving that goal.I see it as the better investment with the potential for a much higher rate of return.

Frankly speaking, from the perspective of business acquisition, globally, due to the efforts of many volunteers to promote, Beam has won some adoption by users , but in addition to a few countries , The overall market adoption rate of Beam is not high. I think this is mainly because the community’s publicity resources and technical resources are not invested in suitable areas.

Commercial adoption

Commercial adoption has been the focus of the Beam community's efforts to promote Beam value growth. However, compared with the energy spent, the price of Beam has not risen significantly, and the return of adoption on the chain is negative, and the promotion of adoption has not achieved obvious results. The solution is to shift the energy from advancing the adoption of businesses and enterprises to building more applications or platforms. Simply put, the focus shifts from promoting merchants to promoting users. If there are enough users, then merchants and enterprises will naturally accept Beam . If enough corporate customers use a certain currency and show willingness to purchase goods or services, then companies will naturally accept this currency as a payment method for their goods or services.

Moving from a merchant approach, we can start to shift our focus to building applications or platforms in a niche environment. We focus on the niche market precisely because Beam is also a niche market. Therefore, by adding the right basic application, Beam may shine in the right market. Therefore, the solution is to build applications in the smallest niche market in an environment with little competition.

The way forward

Beam has come a long way since its inception. It's been quite a journey, with the main problem being the lack of a robust application layer. Moving forward, the community should focus on smaller markets with more opportunities for Beam to shine, and we should do so as soon as possible. The new path builds the core application layer of Beam and provides an opportunity to build new network effects and bring Beam to market.
We have to think really big!
Help ALL the developers, so that they can scale Beam and make it ready for global companies and even countries to start using.
When we can prove that we are ready for the masses, adoption will happen automatically.
You can support me via:
BEAM : 28f8f1735c743e4728f4f64519860753a9d435f04eef889cfc2b24a36c4a2b795a8
Bitcoin: 1PCT7QFPzX1HgkoWu5ruHHPe9aa2id7CQG
submitted by arslankhalid1 to beamprivacy [link] [comments]

Comparing exchanges: Coinbase Pro, Cash.App, Kraken, Gemini Active Trader

I've been looking at difference exchanges for buying and withdrawing. My main concerns are security (must have TOTP as used on Google Authenticator or the like), good trading fees, and good deposit/withdrawal fees, maybe a mobile app but not strictly necessary. Time preference for deposits and withdrawals is not huge but faster the better. Also, i'm U.S. based.
Coinbase Pro:
Cash.App:
Kraken:
Gemini Active Trader:
So thoughts? Corrections? Clarifications?
My preference is:
  1. Gemini Active Trader (if I become comfortable with Authy which is not likely, and it means no app, only web)
  2. Kraken (if they'd have ACH deposits)
  3. Coinbase Pro (not as well loved but best combination of security features and fees)
  4. Cash App (well loved but more expensive and not yet known about their 2FA status, can't find any info anywhere on it)
Since Gemini Active Trader and Kraken are currently out of the running because of those issues stated, Coinbase Pro seems to be the best case at the moment. Maybe with Cash app as a supplement for quick buys and withdrawals.
I also looked at Swan and it's ok, more info in the comments, but biggest thing is it doesn't support modern bt1 addresses.

Updated: Added ACH options

Update2: Found this great resource on what kind of 2FA various exchanges use:
https://twofactorauth.org/#cryptocurrencies

Update3: Added support response from Gemini support regarding 2FA and ActiveTrader on mobile
submitted by SatoshiThreepwoodMP to BitcoinBeginners [link] [comments]

Two Roads Diverge | Monthly FIRE Portfolio Update - May 2020

Two roads diverged in a yellow wood, And sorry I could not travel both And be one traveler, long I stood And looked down one as far as I could To where it bent in the undergrowth
Robert Frost, The Road Not Taken
This is my forty-second portfolio update. I complete this update monthly to check my progress against my goal.
Portfolio goal
My objective is to reach a portfolio of $2 180 000 by 1 July 2021. This would produce a real annual income of about $87 000 (in 2020 dollars).
This portfolio objective is based on an expected average real return of 3.99 per cent, or a nominal return of 6.49 per cent.
Portfolio summary
Vanguard Lifestrategy High Growth Fund – $727 917
Vanguard Lifestrategy Growth Fund – $42 128
Vanguard Lifestrategy Balanced Fund – $78 569
Vanguard Diversified Bonds Fund – $110 009
Vanguard Australian Shares ETF (VAS) – $187 003
Vanguard International Shares ETF (VGS) – $39 987
Betashares Australia 200 ETF (A200) – $225 540
Telstra shares (TLS) – $1 726
Insurance Australia Group shares (IAG) – $7 741
NIB Holdings shares (NHF) – $5 652
Gold ETF (GOLD.ASX) – $117 714
Secured physical gold – $18 982
Ratesetter (P2P lending) – $11 395
Bitcoin – $159 470
Raiz app (Aggressive portfolio) – $16 357
Spaceship Voyager app (Index portfolio) – $2 492
BrickX (P2P rental real estate) – $4 477
Total portfolio value: $1 757 159 (+$62 325 or 3.7%)
Asset allocation
Australian shares – 41.4% (3.6% under)
Global shares – 22.2%
Emerging markets shares – 2.3%
International small companies – 3.0%
Total international shares – 27.4% (2.6% under)
Total shares – 68.8% (6.2% under)
Total property securities – 0.3% (0.3% over)
Australian bonds – 4.4%
International bonds – 9.7%
Total bonds – 14.1% (0.9% under)
Gold – 7.8%
Bitcoin – 9.1%
Gold and alternatives – 16.9% (6.9% over)
Presented visually, below is a high-level view of the current asset allocation of the portfolio.
[Chart]
Comments
This month featured a further recovery in the overall portfolio, continuing to effectively reduce the size of the large losses across the first quarter.
The portfolio has increased by around $62 000, leading to a portfolio growth of 3.7 per cent. This means that around half of the large recent falls have been made up, and the portfolio sits around levels last reached in October of last year.
[Chart]
Leading the portfolio growth has been increases in Australian shares - particularly those held through the Betashares A200 and Vanguard VAS exchange traded funds, with both gaining over four per cent. Most other holdings remained steady, or fell slightly.
Markets appear to be almost entirely disconnected from the daily announcements of the sharp effects of the global coronavirus pandemic and the resulting restrictions. Bond and equity markets seem to have different and competing expectations for the future, and equity markets - at best - are apparently intent on looking through the immediate recovery phase to a new period of strong expansion.
[Chart]
On some metrics, both major global and Australian equity markets can be viewed as quite expensive, especially as reduced dividends announced have largely yet to be delivered. Yet if historically low bond yields are considered, it can be argued that some heightening compared to historical equity market valuations may be sustainable.
Reflecting this moment of markets holding their breath before one of two possible futures plays out, gold and Bitcoin remain elevated, and consequently above their target weightings.
Perhaps the same contending forces are in evidence in a recent Australian Securities and Investment Commission study (pdf) which has found that average Australian retail investors have reacted to uncertainty by activating old brokerage accounts, trading more frequently, and holding securities for shorter periods. My own market activity has been limited to purchases of Vanguard Australian shares ETF (VAS) and the international share ETF (VGS), to bring the portfolio closer to its target allocations.
Will Australia continue to be lucky through global slow downs?
Despite this burst of market activity in the retail market, it is unclear how Australian markets and equities will perform against the background of a global economic slowdown. A frequently heard argument is that a small open trade exposed commodities provider such as Australia, with a more narrowly-based economy, may perform poorly in a phase of heightened risk.
This recent Bank of England paper (pdf) makes the intriguing suggestion that this argument is not borne out by the historical record. In fact, the paper finds that industrial production in Australia, China and a mere handful of other economies has tended to increase following global risk shocks.
A question remaining, however, is whether the recovery from this 'risk shock' may have different characteristics and impacts than similar past events. One key question may be the exact form of government fiscal and monetary responses adopted. Another is whether inflation or deflation is the likely pathway - an unknown which itself may rely on whether long-term trends in the velocity of money supply continue, or are broken.
Facing all uncertainties, attention should be on tail risks - and minimising the odds of extreme negative scenarios. The case for this is laid out in this moving reflection by Morgan Housel. For this reason, I am satisfied that my Ratesetter Peer-to-Peer loans have been gradually maturing, reducing some 'tail risk' credit exposures in what could be a testing phase for borrowers through new non-bank lending channels in Australia. With accrued interest of over $13 000, at rates of around 9 per cent on average, over the five years of the investment, the loans have performed relatively well.
A temporary sheltering port - spending continues to decline
This month spending has continued to fall even as lockdown and other restrictions have slowly begun to ease. These extraordinary events have pushed even the smoothed average of three year expenditure down.
[Chart]
On a monthly basis credit card spending and total expenses have hit the lowest levels in more than six years. Apparently, average savings rates are up across many economies, though obviously individual experiences and starting points can differ dramatically.
Total estimated monthly expenditure has also fallen below current estimates of distributions for the first time since a period of exceptionally high distributions across financial year 2017-18.
The result of this is that I am briefly and surprisingly, for this month, notionally financially independent based on assumed distributions from the FIRE portfolio alone - at least until more normal patterns of expenditure are resumed.
Following the lines of drift - a longer view on progress made
Yet taking a longer view - and accounting for the final portfolio goal set - gives a different perspective. This is of a journey reaching toward, but not at, an end.
The chart below traces in purely nominal dollar terms the progress of the total portfolio value as a percentage of the current portfolio goal of $2.18 million over the last 13 years.
It also shows three labels, with the percentage progress at the inception of detailed portfolio data in 2007, at the start of this written record in January 2017, and as at January 1 of this year.
[Chart]
Two trend lines are shown - one a polynomial and the other exponential function - and they are extended to include a projection of future progress out to around 18 months.
The line of fit is close for the early part of the journey, but larger divergences from both trend lines are evident in the past two years as the impact of variable investment returns on a larger portfolio takes hold.
There are some modest inaccuracies introduced by the nominal methodology adopted - such as somewhat discounting early progress. A 2007 dollar had greater 'real' value and significance than is assigned to it by this representation. The chart does demonstrate, however, the approximate shape and length of the early journey - with it taking around 5 years to reach 20 per cent of the target, and 10 years to reach around half way.
Progress
Progress against the objective, and the additional measures I have reached is set out below.
Measure Portfolio All Assets
Portfolio objective – $2 180 000 (or $87 000 pa) 80.6% 108.4%
Credit card purchases – $71 000 pa 98.3% 132.3%
Total expenses – $89 000 pa 78.8% 106.0%
Summary
With aspects of daily life slowly and incrementally adjusting to a 'new normal', the longer-term question for the portfolio remains around how markets and government actions