For Trading April 3rd
Trading the Range
Jobless Claims Double
Today was pretty constructive in that we opened lower with the futures and of course the blockbuster news of Mr. Trumps tweet (which I find not believable) about and Oil deal between Russia and the Saudi’s, that sent us up to the high of the day +534, before we has some sideways action until around 1:15 when we started to sell-off and headed back to down on the day to -90 before we rallied and finished +469.93 (2.24%), NASDAQ +126.73 (1.72%), S&P 500 +56.40 (2.28%), the Russell +13.81 (1.29%) and the DJ Transports +93.13 (1.27%). There was plenty of news to start the day with Initial Jobless claims that were double the prior number at an astounding 6.6million. Unfortunately, the number next month will be higher. Tomorrow, we have the monthly employment number for March as well as the ISM non-manufacturing pre-open. I regarded today’s market action as very constructive. The lower open and then rally and a second round-trip to a close near the highs was impressive. While there is still plenty of work to be done, plenty of bad news on the economy and COVID-19 to come, we seem to be building some underlying support. Market internals were positive but unimpressive with gains outnumbering losers by 1.4:1 on both NYSE and NASDAQ. Volume was also lower that I would have liked to have seen. On the DJIA there were 25 gainers to 5 losers with BA -50, UTX -36, and WBA-18DPs, while the gainers were led by CVX +50, PG and CAT +36 and MMM+32 DPs.
Our “open forum” on Discord, which allows me to interact with subscribers and others to allow direct questions and chart opinions on just about any stock, continues to grow with more participants every day. It is informative and allows me to share insights as the market is open and moving. The link is: https://discord.gg/ATvC7YZ
and I will be there and active from before the open and all day. It’s a great place to share ideas and gain some insights, and we’ve grown to almost 800 members.
SECTORS: Walgreen reported earnings today and although they had better than expected numbers, they gave less than stellar guidance and the stock fell to a lower low than the March bottom and made a new low close since 2013. WBA fell to $39.41 and closed $40.32 -2.71 (6.3%). We used the decline to buy some CVS calls, which has been consolidating and has outperformed its competitor. Shopify suspended its guidance and the stock, another darling that was priced for perfection got slammed. The stock, up from $20 in 2016 topped out over $593 in February had fallen to 303 last month but climbed back to $470 last week fell to $334.55 before closing 346.30 -38.37 (9.97%).
And last, the Disaster Du Jour was Luckin Coffee (LK), the Chinese Starbucks, sort of. The stock spent 7 months between $15 and $25 before taking off on a run from $18 to over $50 late last year. It fell back to $28 but had traded up to $43 last month before starting down and closing just above $26 yesterday. Unfortunately, the COO was found to have basically fabricated all of the results since Q2. Muddy Waters wrote up the company on 1/31 saying it had “evolved into a fraud.” The stock gapped down to open $4.92, rallied back to $10.58 buy gave up the gains and finished $6.40 -19.80 (75.57%). Clearly a disaster on any day.
BIOPHARMA: was HIGHER with BIIB +11.20, ABBV +1.08, REGN +1.35, ISRG +8.74, MYL -.23, TEVA -.35, VRTX +16.68 (7.4%), BHC M+.10, INCY +4.32 (5.82%), ICPT +.89, LABU +1.98(10.42%) and IBB $108.69 +4.90 (4.72%).
CANNABIS: This group was MIXED with TLRY +.25, CGC +.29, CRON +.14, GWPH -.50, ACB +.04, PYX -.37 (13.26%), NBEV -.04, CURLF +.08, KERN +.04 and MJ $10.77 +.21 (1.99%).
DEFENSE: was HIGHER with LMT +14.98 (4.43%), RTN -3.93, GD +.35, TXT +.07, UTX -5.37 (5.88%), NPOC +7.30, BWXT +2.24, TDY +14.50 (5.23%) and ITA $136.94 +.47 (.34%).
RETAIL: was LOWER with M +.01, JWN -.13, KSS -1.12 (8.66%), DDS -2.29 (8.20%), JCP -.02, WMT +4.36 (3.82%), TGT -.97, TJX -.77, RL +.28, UAA -.42 (5.08%), LULU +2.08, TPR +.04, CPRI -.69, and XRT $27.64 -.39 (1.39%).
FAANG and Big Cap: were HIGHER with GOOGL +14.90, AMZN +8.80, AAPL +2.99, FB -1.80, NFLX +3.92, NVDA +11.06, IBM +4.31, TSLA +53.44, BABA +.89, BIDU +1.12, BA -6.32, CAT +5.06, DIS +1.18 and XLK $78.33 +1.79 (2.34%).
FINANCIALS were HIGHER with GS +5.21, JPM +3.02, BAC +.68, MS +2.14, C +.50, PNC +3.38, AIG -.20, TRV +3.79, AXP -1.14, and XLF $20.04 +.49 (2.51%).
OIL, $25.32 +5.01. The explosive move in Oil today was spurred on by an early morning tweet from Mr. Trump claiming that Russia and the Saudi’s were close to an agreement. My first thought was BS, but the market held and finished strong. My only warning is that we have had several of these spikes that have failed with news that we knew was real. The stocks were stronger across the board with CVX the big winner +7.56 (11.03%) and added 50 DPs. XOM +3.12 (8.13%), OXY +2.05 (19%), OAS +.06, NBL +.47 (8%), MRO +.33, MPC +.58, RIG +.02, APA +.68 (16.92%), BP +1.80 (7.38%) and XLE $30.15 +2.53 (9.16%).
METALS, GOLD: $1,637.70 +46.30. After the recent gains, Gold has failed to break through the highs around $1700 and have fallen back. Today’s rebound is of little technical value. I will reassess and look for a new entry point.
BITCOIN: closed $6,865 +655. After we traded in another short-range day yesterday we had a range of over $1000 today, closing about midrange. While I want to add the 350 sold just over a week ago, I want to wait and see some stabilization. We still own 400 GBTC with an average of $8.06. GBTC closed $7.72 +1.22 today.
Tomorrow is another day.
Lots of stories shown up in the market of which Grayscale Fund has bought bitcoin aggressively recently, which triggering the current round of bitcoin rising from $3800 to the $10,000 barrier, therefore, divergent opinions about this messages are shown up in the market.
Firstly, the key point we should notice is that the Grayscale Fund does indeed buy Bitcoins. Official data shows that within one month as of mid-May, the Grayscale Fund collected 37,000 bitcoins from the market, occupying more than 70% of the entire net mining output and which is equivalent that most of the new Bitcoin’s supply in the market has been swallowed. In theory, the market will indeed form a certain short-term rise effect.
Secondly, the global economic recession which affected by the COVID-19 lead to the collapse of the currency price. Usually, the negative factors brought about by external will only cause a temporary decline. This is the market inertia so the rise in currency prices also has a factor of oversold rebound.
Finally the most significant factor is that Bitcoin ushered the third halving of block rewards, the output of Bitcoin is declining however the quantity of Bitcoin itself is fixed. After the production is reduced, Bitcoin has become scarcer and the limited supply accompanied by the infinite demand, which will inevitably cause long-term bullish prices.n Therefore, intrinsic bull news is the most critical factor driving the increase of Bitcoin price. Under the influence of multiple factors such as Bitcoin halving, oversold rebound and snapped up by the funds constitute the real reason for this rise, not just the single factor of market capital buying.
https://preview.redd.it/ziqhq0e4v3151.jpg?width=1280&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=730a4e953e44825c1bb52fb50309adc2ef1e1c49 So what is Grayscale?
Grayscale is a trusted authority on digital currency investing which established in 2013 by Digital Currency Group(DCG). Grayscale Investments is the sponsor of Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (BTC), Grayscale Bitcoin Cash Trust (BCH), Grayscale Ethereum Trust (ETH), Grayscale Ethereum Classic Trust (ETC), etc..As an American crypto asset management company and a global giant crypto asset fund, currently has a Bitcoin trust asset of 3.29 billion US dollars, which is roughly equivalent to 353621 bitcoins at the current price.
In mid-April, the total value of the Bitcoin trust assets controlled by the Grayscale Fund was only 2.09 billion US dollars, which was equivalent to 315,779 bitcoins. This means that the Grayscale Fund bought 37,824 bitcoins within a month, which nearly average 1,261 per day. On the eve of bitcoin halving, the daily market output was around 1,800 bitcoins. From the data, grayscale is indeed a large-scale acquisition of bitcoin on the market which is very strong, consequently, this action triggering market speculation about this acquisition.
Comparing with those foreign institutional funds which entering the market with a large amount of bitcoin purchasing, what are the market funds doing? Lucian, the chief analyst of BitOffer, revealed to us: Generally speaking, when users enter the market to buy Bitcoins, the USDT price will rise sharply, because the increase in demand will directly trigger the price increase, which will generate positive feedback. In the round of BTC increase, the USDT price has dropped sharply, which reflects that users are shipping heavily. Compared with foreign data, foreign institutional funds are taking over.
Lucian also concluded that from this phenomenon, the market capital movements are relatively one-sided. According to BitOffer's official data, since the plunge occurred on March 12th, the bitcoin ETF fund which Bitoffer launched has been purchased more than US $ 500 million in the past two months, and the ETF market share is only second to the Grayscale digital asset management company. In addition, the Ethereum ETF fund has also shown a substantial growth trend which indicates that global institutional funds are entering the market to buy digital ETF funds.
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