Bitcoin Calculator - Convert Bitcoin into any World Currency
I just bought my first ASIC's, did I make a bad investment
I bought 2 brand New s9i's with psu's For 1600$ And I also Will build a sound Box And I need a router that supports my mobile broadband, this Will prob. Cost another 200$. So the calculating speed is going to be avarage 28TH. How long Will it take to get my money Back when I don't have any electricity Costs. Im just bit concerned because my friend told me that according to BitcoinWisdom site my profits Will cut half every month And that I Will only be making the amount what Bitcoin profitability calc. For the first month. So on few months after mining im making just a fraction of the profit And never going to be able to get the ROI? Can somebody help me and tell me a simple answer how this difficulty affects my New investment.
I've created bitmex BTC profit calculator with notifications.
I was struggling with multiple annoying calculators, ideas, different formulas and excel sheets... I needed something faster and easier, so yesterday morning I created this simple profit calculator for bitcoin. Currently you can calculate multiple versions of profit for limit/market orders, you can also create notifications (plus button on bottom) that will popup when target is reached.You can also generate link via query params, so later I will make user script for it, that way people will be able to run it from trading platform, if such functionality will be needed/helpful. Like lot of things I have made it for myself, however I decided that it may be useful for some of you. Also I hope it will be not so annoying like rest of such apps.I hope I do not violate rules sharing it. (no ads, no BS, only calculator + notifications) https://bitmex-calc.app/
Currency, in general, is a medium for exchange that is based on promises for what that currency is worth. Commonly called "money." Cryptocurrency is not centrally controlled or regulated and their value is based on the supply and demand; there are built-in limits for how much can exist (potentially curbs devaluation), public logs of the transactions (blockchain) and the cryptography algorithm make it difficult to counterfeit. Maybe this old TechQuickie can explain it better. TL:dr an unregulated form of digital money
What is mining?
The most basic way to acquire a cryptocurrency is the same as acquiring money, in exchange for goods or services. The other way to get cryptocurrency is by mining, or solving increasingly difficult math problems in exchange for the cryptocurrency.
What does this have to do with GPU prices going up?
Crypto mining started on CPUs, but it didn't take long for people to realize that GPUs, especially the 'heavy duty' ones intended for gaming, are really good at it. The downside to GPU mining is heat and power consumption, this lead to mining systems designed for the task and eventually ASIC chips designed just for mining. As a cryptocurrency matures the math problems become very difficult, leading to pools of miners that share resources - this has also lead to some malware using infected systems for mining. An older currency like Bitcoin is well into that 'pooled specialty hardware' age, but newer options like Ethereum are aimed at GPUs; this increased demand means lower supply which means higher prices.
When will prices go back to normal?
Probably if or when the cost to mine via GPU exceeds expected returns. There are some specialized cards set to hit the market which may ease the demand on enthusiast GPUs. A word of warning, when this happens the market will be flooded with GPUs that were used for mining. The lower price may seem attractive, but these cards have been used in harsh conditions, 24/7 for who knows how long. Mining cards probably won't run very well/very long or they could work fine. You have to decide if it's worth the risk.
Should I start mining?
That is entirely up to you, but please take some time to educate yourself on the risks and benefits before you decide. Take a look at a profitability estimator to get an idea of what you might expect. These cryptocurrencies can be very, very volatile so don't quit your job expecting to strike it big with mining. Consider the cost of taxes, cooling, hardware, replacement hardware, and power. Mining is hard on hardware, the wear and tear means things like fans, the GPU(s), and other parts may die prematurely. Keeping your hardware cool (about 300W to cool 1000W) can lead to additional costs for hardware and power or reduced output. The cost of electricity may not seem like much, but it can be enough to make or break a mining setup. Take the time to figure out your ROI.
Should I sell my card?
Again, this is entirely up to you. There may be situations where selling a card and upgrading with the money can work out, but there are a lot of factors at play there, so do your research. Check selling sites: eBay, Craigslist, hardwareswap, LetGo, Facebook, and other (similar) selling sites for pricing. If shipping, package it how you bought it: clean, inside an anti-static bag, in a cardboard box with some padding. If meeting someone IRL, be careful, meet in a well-lit public place - some areas have exchange locations at places like police stations. I'd like to take a quick moment to thank Linux_PCMR for some insight, Graphics_Nerd for gathering some links for review, and the kind users that have replied to the number of posts on this subject.
I made an upgraded calculator for Hashflare, with reinvestments and difficulty increase!
Final EDIT: I have deactivated the links, too many people asking to edit. I recommend to everyone: buy Bitcoin, ETH or altcoins and hold them. As for me, I'm all in on RaiBlocks -> /RaiBlocks EDIT 1: Changed to consider an optional BTC price increase EDIT 2: Changed to consider mining fees, thanks for the suggestions EDIT 3: Optimize number of days using Goal Seek EDIT 4: Fixed bug in BTC price increase ( thanks madmax_br5 ) - you will now see bigger profits in the chart as it is using the projected increased value. EDIT 5: Added comparison with buying BTC now and selling later. 3-4x more in my case. EDIT 6: Overhaul after WandringAnteater 's suggestions. He also gave a more in depth explanation of the inputs and outputs here EDIT 7: Changed to reinvest from the payout and not balance; fallback to balance if payout < 0.01 TH/s equivalent. Thanks to u/erikkubica for reporting the bug. I saw many calculators around the sub (thanks for those by the way!), but they didn't consider the increases in difficulty, making for huge profits in the end. This one considers a constant increase in difficulty, compounded (specify the amount and period of increase). Reinvestment is also considered, you can specify the percentage and how long you wish to reinvest. There are still many things that are unpredictable, but this at least can give us a more conservative view on potential profits (no longer 10x, but about 3x in my case - at current BTC price). Maybe someone smarter than me can take this calculator and create automatic optimization on the reinvestment percentage and time. As of now you have to insert your values and wait about 5 seconds to re-calc. Any criticism is appreciated!
Shotgunned tons of colleges, and turned out pretty successful. If anyone needs free college application advice, application reviews, essay edits, essay reviews, anything college app related just dm me cause i'm bored and i like doing this stuff. Intended Major: EECS or CS + Engineering Demographics: Asian, Male, Non-Competitive Public School from California. Anti-hook city ACT (One Sitting): Composite: 36, Essay: 8/12 SAT (One Sitting): Composite: 1520, Essay: 17/24 SAT Math Level 2: 800 SAT Chemistry: 800 UW GPA: 4.00 Coursework:
AP Chem (4)
AP Calc AB (5)
AP Calc BC (5)
AP US History (5)
AP English Lang (4)
AP Physics C: Mechanics (5)
AP Psychology (5)
AP English Lit (5)
AP US Gov (3, lmao)
Essentially did the Most Rigorous Courseload Possible Academic Awards:
USA Computing Olympiad Platinum - National - (Redacted) grade
USA Computing Olympiad Gold Perfect Score - National - (Redacted) grade
CODA Honors Orchestra Performer - School and State/Regional - (Redacted) grade
Potential Instructor at a Redacted College - School - 10, 11 grade
ECs In Order:
Cryptocurrency Investor and Enthusiast - Organized a library program at my local library to teach Bitcoins to over 25 adults, gained citywide recognition; published crypto-profit tracker app for Android; advised friends in trading ($1100 to $4400) (9-12)
Research at (Redacted) Lab (EE Department) - Published the first Mac OS X port (to be used in professor's classes) and a data-visualization website for my lab's memory tool (11-12)
eBay Electronics Business - Scrapped computer parts & resold them; negotiated w/ customers to fix their issues; made $7477.88 in sales (9-11)
Teaching Assistant at (Redacted) Program - Mentored advanced CS topics and projects to high-school students as part of a outreach program taught by (Redacted) faculty. (12)
President, Founder of 3D Printing Club - Led meetings and lectures; Trained club members to model 3D designs in TinkerCAD; Printed and returned members' designs for free (10, 12)
Co-President of Business and Finance Club - Selected by club officials to instruct/present cryptocurrency news, trends, and investing terminology to my school's weekly Business and Finance Club (11-12)
Volunteer for (Redacted Library) - Co-developed video game that was featured in (Redacted Library) and played by visitors; Taught elders how to use phones/computers and teens to 3D print and model (9-11, 12)
Piano - Passed CM Advanced Level (highest level in CM syllabus); Performed in the CM Branch Honor Recital (top 5% of CM-testers); Played for 10 years (9-12)
Letter of Recs: I have no clue how my LORs turned out but I guess they’re aren’t exceptional by any means. In fact, I'd say they're pretty below average when it comes to elite college apps. These are solely predictions, not actual indicators of how they actually turned out. Do NOT flake out on these!!!:
Counselor: ~2 to 5/10
Math Teacher: ~5 to 6/10
My English teacher: ~8/10 - Said that that I always pushes myself to the hardest. Also wrote on my personal growth
My Supplemental LOR: ~8 to 9/10 - Said how much I exceeded my mentor's expectations on research
Common App: “Hilarious, reflects your personality well, and stand-out” from a Stanford student, and my English teacher said “very humorous, extremely atypical, I really like it.” I can't rate my own essay, but will share it to people who wants to see it.
Supplements: Varies, but in general, I thought my Princeton ones showed a lot of creativity and personality. Stanford and Caltech ones were also pretty good and showed personality. The rest were raw, one-takes, but not very polished. My Brown one, however, was more raw, unpolished, and displayed more of my passion for CS than the other supplements which I thought was bad. The truth is, do NOT spend too much time on your supplements otherwise it will lose your raw, unedited voice and it will feel much more generic. I had significantly better results for college essays in which I spent a day or two editing (Berkeley/Brown/JHU) rather than comparably difficult colleges I spent weeks *perfecting* my essays for (Caltech/CMU/Harvey Mudd).
UC Essays: I only showed it to my college counselor but he gave it better praise than my common app essay, surprisingly. Also, I spent barely any time on these essays because I did not want to end up going to a UC school. Overall, I spent two days drafting and finishing all my UC essays and had much better results than I expected. Most of them were also very raw, unedited, unpolished, but displayed a lot of personality and was more boastful since I was very free and unconstrained in how I wrote (if that makes sense).
UMich (CS @ CoE, EA)
Caltech (Waitlist -> Reject)
MIT (Deferred EA)
CMU (SCS), did not accept WL
Princeton (SEAS, CS)
Johns Hopkins (CS)
Cornell (CS @ CoE), did not accept WL
UC Berkeley (M.E.T; Made Interview Round -> Reject from M.E.T after Interview but Accept into EECS)
$KMD can often be used to buy into decentralized ICOs launched on our platform at a discounted price.
KMD can also be traded with absolute privacy using Komodo’s Jumblr tool
What is a privacy coin? Privacy coins implement various protocols to create a layer of privacy between blockchain transactions. This can be utilized to prevent blockchain traceability or provide different levels of privacy for data stored on the blockchain.
What is Jumblr? A decentralized cryptocurrency shuffler that allows your transactions to become incognito and protects them from being traced through a time or knapsack attack. It adds a privacy layer to your transactions because after your coins are Jumbled, an analysis of the amounts that went in or times that they came out is futile. This function is unique to Komodo and does not require third parties.
2. Security: a secure and robust consensus mechanism called delayed Proof of Work (dPoW) that protects your funds and our ecosystem. This unique technology uses a notarization process to create a backup of the entire Komodo blockchain onto the Bitcoin blockchain thereby increasing security and resilience. This happens roughly every ten minutes. The backups are then saved (notarized) onto the Bitcoin blockchain because it has the highest hashrate available. So even if Komodo suffered a devastating attack (which is extremely unlikely), the Komodo blockchain would merely revert to the most recently notarized copy of the chain. If Bitcoin loses superiority in terms of hashrate the dPOW mechanism can be switched to another blockchain on demand. Hence, Komodo is the most flexible platform to build on and one of the most secure.
What is hashrate? A proof of work blockchain needs a lot of calculations. Hashrate is the way it is measured. The amount of data hashed in a given time by a machine. It is a unit used to define the amount of calculations made by a machine. When you add all the machines together you have the hashrate for that blockchain (here’s a great chart that illustrates it). It's like a river of transactions and the broader and wider it is, the harder it is to manipulate it.
3. Freedom from middlemen: a decentralized exchange (DEX) called BarterDEX, with a fully working order book, powered by our world-class atomic swap technology. This reduces risk and transaction fees. Komodo’s atomic swaps work between Bitcoin protocol and ERC20 tokens which means we can support over 95% of all the tokens and coins in existence. Our decentralized exchange offers ‘liquidity power-ups’ which mean that you can place more than one buy order with the same funds (i.e. pick your top 5 coins and if any of them drop below 50% of their value you’ll buy it and cancel the other orders at the same time) which means your funds have a greater value! On top of all that, Komodo’s DEX has fast transaction speeds and super low transaction fees (0.15%). You can find live BarterDEX and Komodo Stats here: https://dexstats.info/index.php.
What are atomic swaps? Atomic swaps are a method of trading cryptocurrencies peer-to-peer, directly from one blockchain to another, without the need to trust a third-party. Here is a good article to read that will take you about 11 minutes ‘Atomic Swaps & Etomic Swaps, Explained in Plain English’ written by John Westbrook on Medium.
Why do YOU want an exchange to be decentralized? A centralized exchange is a third party and requires you to trust them with your funds. If they’re hacked you’re at risk of losing your funds. Centralized exchanges also require you to trade between pillars (i.e. BTC or USDT) which can involve higher transaction fees and a greater number of trades than necessary to swap the token you have for the one you want (i.e. DOGE sell to BTC to buy KMD is two trades when all you really want is DOGE to KMD).
4. Independence: decentralized ICO crowdfunding and scalability solutions for blockchain startups. You can think of a blockchain as a motorway and if you build a project on the same blockchain as other projects you will be impacted by how well the other drives behave, or by the motorway introducing tolls, or you could suffer from congestion (i.e. if you’re familiar with how crypto kitties caused ETH transaction fees to greatly increase and transaction speeds to slow down then you’ll understand multiple projects on one blockchain cause a scalability and independence problem ). Komodo offers parallel chains which mean a project or decentralized ICO is given its own chain which uses Komodo’s technology. This also solves the scalability issue because using the motorway analogy we can simply open more lanes for a project with a high amount of congestion. This is possible because of the dPOW notarisation. It allows projects to launch completely independent blockchains. Every independent blockchain created on Komodo Platform is automatically integrated into Komodo’s BarterDEX (DEX) which means they have instant access to liquidity for their token and their community can buy and trade immediately. If you compare this to a centralized exchange where projects are often met with a list of onerous demands and fees to be listed and risk being delisted then you’ll understand how important this is for any project especially smaller teams and decentralized apps (dAPPS).
5. Universal Wallet: the Agama Wallet is a universal secure, multi-coin wallet to store funds on and claim the 5% reward for your $KMD tokens. There is also a paper wallet available if you would prefer a cold storage option for those who want to maximize their security.
A simple yet profitable approach to building crypto currency portfolios.
I have been trading crypto currencies for about 5 years now and I have only found 1 strategy that reliably generates returns with minimal day trading efforts. That strategy is simply stated as "Hodling the market cap weighted cryptfolio." When everyone else is running around with their hair on fire because they can't call tops and bottoms (hint: nobody can and nobody makes money reliably attempting to do so), I'm sitting there watching liquidity flow from one component of my portfolio to another. When that flow drives my portfolio weights out by a sufficiently significant threshold (defined by execution costs, tax implications, etc), then I rebalance. The tool I use to rebalance is a simple node.js script with no external library dependencies. It uses coinmarketcap.com assets and circulating supplies to calculate weights and prints them to the console. https://github.com/cellularatomaton/cryptfolio Before you reply with your TA strategy that netted you 1000x over the last year in hindsight without any real understanding of how back-testing actually works, please save yourself the embarrassment. I have over 10 years of experience as a financial engineer and quantitative trader in private capital, market making, and dealing, in the Commodities, FX, IR, and Crypto markets (spot, physical, futures and options). I have managed trading systems spanning all classes of strategy including arb, stat arb, event, flow, microstructure, machine learning, bayesian methods, and the list goes on. With a hundred or so traders and engineers highly capitalized and incentivized to produce profitable results, the TA class of strategies has always been the easiest to throw out given sufficient computational resources. At any rate let's not waste any time arguing about the merits of TA, it is a waste of our time until you have done the due diligence to demonstrate statistical significance of excess returns. On the other hand, in crypto land the market cap weighted portfolio is reliably stable, while also sitting somewhere very near the efficient frontier. And it is simple to calculate (you can easily do it in a spreadsheet if you don't like or trust my script). Since I started hodling this portfolio a few years back, I have seen around 40x return and reduced the volatility of my portfolio by about half. The only time I really have to touch the weights is right after big moves, so I never need to predict anything ;-). At any rate, take it or leave it, just my 10 Sat. Edit: If you ever want to use this script and post the output to Reddit, you can invoke it like:
node calc-weights.js 10 50000 markdown
Which will give you the top 10 market cap weights for a $50k portfolio and format as markdown so that it shows up in a table like this (for market values on 2017-11-10 8:59pm):
05-30 08:44 - 'Simple Excel Calculator to Track your Bitcoin Trading Profits using FIFO' (self.Bitcoin) by /u/pksoni removed from /r/Bitcoin within 195-205min
''' Spreadsheet is ready to calculate FIFO Profits up to 2000 transactions, which can easily be extended further by dragging the formulas as per your requirement. [Bitcoin Cryptocurrency FIFO Gain Excel Calculator]1 You will just have to put Transaction Type (buy or sale), Date Transaction, Bitcoin Quantity and Price. Sheet will display important data for every row:
FIFO Profit or Loss after every transaction.
Cumulative Cost of Bitcoin Purchased.
Cumulative Earning from Sell of Bitcoin.
Total Bitcoin Purchased, Sold and Balance after every transaction.
Highlights the rows for Buy and Sell transactions in Green and Orange colors.
You can set trading fees/commission in Currency or Percentage form.
You can purchase this tool from Eloquens.com marketplace for USD $10 only. LIFO (Last in First Out) and Google Sheet versions are also available. FIFO Profit Excel Calculator: [[link]5 LIFO (Last In First Out) Profit Excel Calculator: [[link]6 You can purchase it for Bitcoin or other cryptocurrency from [**[link]7 ''' Simple Excel Calculator to Track your Bitcoin Trading Profits using FIFO Go1dfish undelete link unreddit undelete link Author: pksoni 1: r*d**t.com/link/b*pal9/vi*eo/t0*d*vnz*a13*/p***er 2: www**loqu*ns.*om/*ool/3MdIA*/e*gin*eri*g/***pto*urrency-ex*el-templa*es/bi*coin-*rypto*urre**y-f**o-*r***t-***cula**r-for-taxatio* 3: www.*lo*uens.com/**ol/3B4lfy*X*eng***ering**ryptocu*re**y-excel-templat*s/bi*coin**r**to*ur**ncy*l**o-last**n-f*rst-out*Pr*f*t-calc*la*o*-fo*-taxa*io* 4: w*w.fifocalc***tor**om 5: w*w.eloquens*co***ool/3MdI*v/engi*eering*c*ypt*cur**n**-excel-t*m**ates/bitco*n***y*t*cu**en*y-fifo-**ofi*-c**cu**tor-for-taxat*on]^^2 6: ww*.el*quens.com/tool/3B4lfy9X/*ngin*er*n*/**yp*ocu*r*n****xcel**e*plates/bitcoin*c*yp*ocur*ency-l*fo-*ast-*n-first-out*Pr*fit-**l**l*t*r-f*r**axation*^*3 7: www.fifocalculator.com**]^^4 Unknown links are censored to prevent spreading illicit content.
05-30 08:44 - 'Bitcoin Cryptocurrency FIFO Gain Calculator' (self.Bitcoin) by /u/pksoni removed from /r/Bitcoin within 137-147min
''' [[link]2 Spreadsheet is ready to calculate FIFO Profits up to 2000 transactions, which can easily be extended further by dragging the formulas as per your requirement. You will just have to put Transaction Type (buy or sale), Date Transaction, Bitcoin Quantity and Price. Sheet will display important data for every row:
FIFO Profit or Loss after every transaction.
Cumulative Cost of Bitcoin Purchased.
Cumulative Earning from Sell of Bitcoin.
Total Bitcoin Purchased, Sold and Balance after every transaction.
Highlights the rows for Buy and Sell transactions in Green and Orange colors.
You can set trading fees/commission in Currency or Percentage form.
You can purchase this tool from Eloquens.com marketplace for USD $10 only. LIFO (Last in First Out) and Google Sheet versions are also available. FIFO Profit Excel Calculator: [link]3 LIFO (Last In First Out) Profit Excel Calculator: [link]4 **You can purchase it for Bitcoin or other cryptocurrency from [link]5 Please let me know if you have any question or suggestion to improve this template. ''' Bitcoin Cryptocurrency FIFO Gain Calculator Go1dfish undelete link unreddit undelete link Author: pksoni 1: *ww.*outu*e.c*m/*a*ch?v=pQ8Zz**6S*c 2: www*yo*tub*.com/watch*v=*Q8Z*P*6S**]^^* 3: w*w.eloq**n**co*/t*ol*3MdI*v*engin*e**n*/cr*ptocurren*y-*x*el-templ*tes/bi*co*n***ypto**rrenc*-fifo*Profit-calc*lat**-for-t*xation 4: w*w**loq*e***com*tool/3B4**y9X/e*gi*e*ring*cr*pto*urrency-ex*el-*e*plat*s/bitcoin-*ryp**c**r**cy-lifo**ast-i*-first*out-*ro*it*calcu*a*or**or-taxation 5: www.fifocalculator.com** Unknown links are censored to prevent spreading illicit content.
Hey y'all As i'm sure many of you know, the lifetime contracts are currently in a 60 day grace period before being deleted. Do you think with this currently price rise it will make the contracts profitable again? If so that would at least restart our 60 days if they do go unprofitable again. According to this calculator, https://cryptorival.com/calcs/bitcoin they are profitable. Not by much, but to the point where we should at least not be in the grace period. Just curious on what you guys think!
What is the max supply of bitcoin private? There are like 16m bitcoin and 3m zcl in circulation.. So that's 2m bctp left to mine if it has 21m max supply right? I don't see the fees being able to cover the cost of mining the blocks in only a few years... So what's happening with mining and max supply and how will the chain continue to be profitable once the last btcp is mined. Edit the whitepaper says it will have 20.4m of 21m mined... So it will be the least profitable coin to mine in the history of coins? Edit 2. Entering some basic information into a zec Calc shows that for a 1080ti. Bctp would be required to be worth over $100,000 to make only 2.70$ a day based on the difficulty that zec has. The bctp is going to stall out in hashpower on release no question.
Looking at WhatToMine I guess it makes sense. https://whattomine.com/coins/161-sc-blake-2b?utf8=%E2%9C%93&hr=815.0&p=1200.0&fee=3.0&cost=0.13&hcost=1300.0&commit=Calculate Power cost per month / coins generated per month on an A3 makes the intrinsic value about .0022 USD. Anyone mining this on ASICs probably sees anything over .0022 as profit so they sell. I’ve bought and I hold. I’ll probably buy more if this dip continues. But I won’t be surprised if my held position goes down significantly more. At some point the current generation of ASICs will stop being profitable (when more of the same generation of ASICs come online or as sellers continue to book profits). Then the price should find some intrinsic support. ...until the next generation. Time. It will take time is all. Same calc for a bitcoin ASIC shows intrinsic value of around 9k. So at the very least the coin is a store of the value of the power cost to generate it. I think...
Any mining profitability calculator that lets you see past returns starting from specific past dates?
Most profitability calculators either assume current difficulty stays the same (we all know it doesn't) or estimates difficulty increase. What I want is a calculator that let's me set the start date as a date in the past, and shows me actual would-have-been returns based on actual difficulty from then till now? Why? Because I know an s9 would have been "profitable" 6, 12, 18 months ago, but much of that profit would have been from BTC price increase, and simply buying bitcoin 6-18 months ago would have been a great investment too. I want to compare profitability of mining and hodling vs same budget on buying coin and hodling, from various points in time. Alternatively, if no such web calc exists, if the math isn't too complicated I guess I could make one in spreadsheet form.
Cross posted to: /litecoin I'm on verge of buying the bitmain l3+ which I would receive in November. I've read the difficulty will blow up soon and profitability will crash. Since I'd have to wait 3 months before receiving my unit do you think I'd be able to get a return on investment? Been running calcs all day and it looks good today but not sure about on three months and beyond. Thoughts? Should I just buy Ltc and hold at this point? I have made enough in bitcoin investments to pay for the unit and understand the risk. Thanks! Ps I'd be happy to break even honestly Pps. How loud are these L3+s? Like a large vacuum cleaner really? Edit: clarity Update: although I was feeling confident I'd get my roi within a good about if time, the sound and heat issue in my tiny condo was the deciding factor. I didnt make a purchase and will hodl my btc until another quieter investment opportunity crops up. Thanks for all for advice!
bit_by_bit's mining-cost analysis is wrong - here's mine
bit_by_bit publishes a daily mining-cost-per-coin watch. Though his work is thorough and commendable, it is unfortunately incorrect, and his conclusions naive. I'm sure he has misled people on this board, so I'm here to set the record straight. Roughly using bit_by_bit's assumptions:
difficulty increase is (probably) impossible to predict
I'm 100% sure your miner would not arrive and be switched on today
Given those two huge, highly variable (and unpredictable) factors, trying to work out a cost-per-coin is ... more-or-less impossible. It's simply enough to assume that mining is extremely unprofitable at the moment and (probably) a very poor investment. Here are some examples of variability:
Cointerra TerraMiner IV
cost per coin
0% difficulty increase
20% difficulty increase
15% difficulty, but starting at 30bn difficulty
How are these numbers so different from bit_by_bits?
His calculations do not factor in an exponential difficulty increase. Instead, he says (in his maths) : "if the bitcoin network were composed of the miners here, and no extra miners are added/removed (i.e. difficulty remains the same) what would those miners (on average) achieve as a cost per coin over six months."
The problem with these numbers is
The percentage of miners he uses to compose the network is unknowable, and as you see above, miner performance varies greatly. I'm quite sure that huge operations custom manufacture their machines and never sell them. Their performance is unknown. (an unknowable unknown)
The makeup of the mining network in the future is unknowable, and difficulty will undoubtedly increase, but we can't know by how much. It has previously plateaued. Will it do the same? nobody knows.
They assume the very latest miners, shipped immediately. Historically, new miners are not shipped on time. It's been suggested that the manufacturers keep them and do highly profitable day-zero mining with them.
Also, to suggest that it is possible to predict market movements (and depth) is naive as it asserts that demand is constant, and that supply is the major, or key, factor. This is highly unlikely to be the case.
Let's talk about mining's effect on bitcoin price or, first should we talk about the effect of the price of bitcoin on the mining industry?
The two are intimately linked chicken-and-egg in a feedback loop. For a manufacturer to decide to make a rig, they need to design chips, get industry contacts, produce things (in china), make sure they work, then ship. They also need to get orders and decide if they are able to get the whole project in time for market. These projects are multi-month/year, and I've heard success is largely decided by who you know in china (china's pretty busy already). There is some kind of lag. Investors also pre-order, and must take a wild guess at future conditions with no guarantee whatsoever. At times like now, where mining is so unprofitable, which miners are actually selling coins (at a loss)? Large operations have large overheads, but to sell now, when the price might rise by 10x again would be idiotic. So, really this "supply" aspect of the supply-demand equation is very difficult to get a decent hold on, though I would love somebody to attempt it as a PHD. The blockchain should provide some answers. The other side of it (what miners will be produced) is also difficult to know. It could be that right now (with an unprofitable industry, and miners actually being quite close to desktop PC chip-size - i.e. as fast as humans can make them) no miners are in the pipe-line. This could (in crazy theory) lead to a zero difficulty increase for the lucky new owners of the above rigs. In that case, bit_by_bit's numbers would be spot on. Unfortunately, it's absolutely unknowable.
So... why do people buy miners now?
Quite simply, getting your head around an exponential anything is hard. The exponential difficulty increase is a motherfucker. But it's good for bitcoin (it protects our network from meddlers). Also, you could gamble that mining difficulty has to slow down... surely...
In my experience, looking at price charts is far more informative about future market movements. But, whilst I've got the microphone, I would remind newbies not to trade their coins.
$0.15 (varies quite a bit from country-to country, like 0.7 canada to 0.2 UK?)
price per BTC
I got these numbers off bit_by_bit. I don't care about the details. My argument is that it's not an answerable question. Result:
2252/600 = 3.75 BTC
7446/3.75 = $1985
Please, if I've made a mistake, let me know and I'll send bit_by_bit some flowers.
"Why are you just posting stuff directly against another user: that's not cool"
Well, it's whatever motivates you eh? I just go wound up by our discussions. But, I'm quite sure there are people on this board who don't know this stuff, so ... it's probably beneficial. Have fun EDIT: Ok, so I genuinely thought that I had made a fact-based post. Er, I added a few comments that I thought were funny, but I guess that wasn't a great idea. I removed one of my comments myself, but it's true that the moderators were in touch..... And - to bit_by_bit, I am sorry, because some of the things I said were above and beyond "spirited discussion". I absolutely agree that polite conduct is the way forward, and my initial "hang on a minute" reply to him was nice. But, I do have to admit that this subject has wound me up a fair amount. I genuinely believe that he's made a quite serious mistake - but I am happy to be proved wrong. Right now - I just want to get to the bottom of this. More Edit:
I am a miner
I didn't want to add this before, because I'm sure it (incorrectly) gives my argument more weight. But I need you to understand that bitcoin difficulty is a total motherfucker. I pre-ordered a BFL single for 11BTC in May 2013. The difficulty was about 4 million, and I worked out I'd make 30BTC/day at those conditions. It arrived at around 30 million difficulty, and I think now we're 18 billion. I've made about 0.7 BTC mining, and It's on the limit of believability that I'll make 1BTC before I throw it in the bin. I have a suspicion that it will be useful in the future for some altcoin/blockchain like thing. Also, I got free heating (which was the whole reason I discovered bitcoin in the first place!) Horrific loss. I think it makes about $1 more than it costs in electricity to run (at current price......) This whole post is not a "bitter miner" but somebody who has experienced bitcoin's exponential difficulty First Hand. Honestly, it is unbelievable. I genuinely think that the guy that does the profitability calculator deliberately does not explain what the 'profitability decline per year' is ... because he knows it will adversely harm bitcoin and the manufacture of miners. Even More EDIT:
Am I sure I've got the difficulty increase thing right?
So, I've made a spreadsheet thing to see if the 0.0022 difficulty thing is right. It is. All this table tells you is that in order to calculate 15% difficulty increase, you need to use a number LIKE 0.0022 in the 'profitability decline per year' box, and not 0.98 (which bit_by_bit calculated). I've sanity checked my numbers against the 'profitability calculator' and they don't quite line up, but they're close enough. The difficulty is not the same either, but it's in the same region. I don't know why. Also, the months aren't exact fortnights, so they don't line up. These are details. This proves my above workings to my satisfaction.
what is this horrible data?
It shows how much BTC your miner earns each 2 weeks (average difficulty change period). The last 2 rows (calc:) are from the profitability calculator website (and so are right). My attempt is on the left. Fortnight 13 is 6 months. Oh, this graph uses 14.07% difficulty.
BTC earned accumulated
calculator says BTC
2 bold numbers. 1 is approximately the 3.75 coins that gives you $1900 / coin whatever. 2 is the "profitability decline per year" as a tiny number. The pro tool comes up with 0.01095125 and I got 0.02257 but I don't care - it's close enough. My whole point is that these numbers are totally unworkably all over the place. You can't calculate them meaningfully.
I CANNOT BELIEVE the amount of effort that I have had to go to in order to show you that you made a minor mistake. (at time of writing you still deny it). There is no doubt in my mind now that I was right in the first place. Your calculations do not include a significant difficulty increase. I wish you well.
New people please read this. [upvote for visibility please]
I am seeing too many new people come and and getting confused. Litecoin wiki isn't the greatest when it comes to summing up things so I will try to do things as best as I can. I will attempt to explain from what I have learned and answer some questions. Hopefully people smarter than me will also chime in. I will keep this post updated as much as I can. Preface Litecoin is a type to electronic currency. It is just like Bitcoin but it there are differences. Difference explained here. If you are starting to mine now chances are that you have missed the Bitcoin mining train. If you really want your time and processing power to not go to waste you should mine LTC because the access to BTC from there is much easier. Mining. What is it? Let's get this straight. When making any financial commitment to this be prepared to do it with "throw away" money. Mining is all about the hashrate and is measured in KH/s (KiloHash/sec). Unlike the powerful ASICs (Application Specific Integrated Circuit) that are used to mine bitcoins using hashrates in the GH/s and even TH/s, litecoin mining has only been able to achieve at the very best MH/s. I think the highest I've seen is 130 MH/s so far. Which leads us to our next section. Mining Hardware While CPU mining is still a thing it is not as powerful as GPU mining. Your laptop might be able to get 1 a month. However, I encourage you to consult this list first. List of hardware comparison You will find the highest of processors can maybe pull 100 KH/s and if we put this into a litecoin mining calculator it doesn't give us much. Another reason why you don't want to mine with your CPU is pretty simple. You are going to destroy it. So this leaves us with GPUs. Over the past few months (and years) the HD 7950 has been the favourite because it drains less power and has a pretty good hashrate. But recently the introduction of the R9 290 (not the x) has changed the game a bit. People are getting 850 KH/s - 900 KH/s with that card. It's crazy. Should I mine? Honestly given the current difficulty you can make a solid rig for about $1100 with a hashrate of 1700 KH/s which would give you your investment back in about a month and a half. I am sure people out there can create something for much cheaper. Here is a good example of a setup as suggested by dystopiats PCPartPicker part list / Price breakdown by merchant / Benchmarks
Prices include shipping, taxes, and discounts when available.
Generated by PCPartPicker 2013-11-29 00:52 EST-0500
Estimated Hashrate (with GPU overclocking) : 1900 KH/s Hardware Fundamentals CPU - Do you need a powerful CPU? No but make sure it is a decent one. AMD CPUs are cheap to buy right now with tons of power. Feel free to use a Sempron or Celeron depending on what Motherboard you go with. RAM - Try to get at least 4 GB so as to not run into any trouble. Memory is cheap these days. I am saying 4 GB only because of Windoze. If you are plan to run this on Linux you can even get away with less memory. HDD Any good ol 7200 RPM hard drive will do. Make sure it is appropriate. No point in buying a 1TB hard drive. Since, this is a newbie's guide I assumed most won't know how to run linux, but incase you do you can get a USB flash drive and run linux from it thus removing the need for hard drive all toghether. (thanks dystopiats) GPU - Consult the list of hardware of hardware I posted above. Make sure you consider the KH/s/W ratio. To me the 290 is the best option but you can skimp down to 7950 if you like. PSU - THIS IS BLOODY IMPORTANT. Most modern GPUs are power hungry so please make sure you are well within the limits of your power consumption. MOTHERBOARD - Ok, so a pretty popular board right now is Gigabyte GA-990FXA-UD3 and the ASRock 970 Extreme4. Some people are even going for Gigabyte GA-990FXA-UD5 and even the mighty Gigabyte GA-990FXA-UD7 because it has more PCI-E slots. 6 to be exact. However you may not need that much. With risers you can get more shoved into less. PCI-E RISERS - These are called risers. They come in x16 to x16 and x1 to x16 connections. Here is the general rule of thumb. This is very important. Always get a POWERED riser otherwise you will burn a hole in your MoBo. A powered rise as a molex connector so that additional power from PSU can be supplied. When it comes to hardware I've provided the most basic knowledge you need. Also, take a look at cryptobader's website. This is very helpful. Please visit the mining section of Litecoin Forums and the litecoinmining subreddit for more indepth info. Mining Software Now that you have assembled your hardware now you need to get into a pool. But before you do that you need a mining software. There are many different ones but the one that is most popular is cgminer. Download it and make sure you read the README. It is a very robust piece of software. Please read this if you want to know more. (thanks BalzOnYer4Head) Mining Pools Now that your hardware and software is ready. I know nothing about solo mining other than the fact that you have to be very lucky and respectable amount of hashing power to decrypt a block. So it is better to join pools. I have been pool hopping for a bit and really liked give-me-coin previously known to the community as give-me-ltc. They have a nice mobile app and 0% pool fees. This is really a personal preference. Take a look at this list and try some yourself. How do I connect to a pool? Most pools will give you a tutorial on how to but the basics are as follows:
Signup for a pool
Create a worker for your account. Usually one worker per rig (Yes people have multiple rigs) is generally a good idea.
Create a .run file. Open up notepad and type cgminer.exe -o (address_to_the_miningpool:port_number) -u (yourusername.workername) -p (your_worker_password_if_you_made_one). Then File>Save As>runcgminer.run (Make sure the drop down is set to "All Files" and .txt document.) and save in the same folder as cgminer. That's it.
Double click on runcgminer.run (or whatever you named it) and have fun mining.
Mining Profitability This game is not easy. If it was, practically everyone would be doing it. This is strictly a numbers game and there are calculations available that can help you determine your risk on your investments. 4 variables you need to consider when you are starting to mine: Hardware cost: The cost of your physical hardware to run this whole operation. Power: Measured in $/KwH is also known as the operating cost. Difficulty rate: To put it in layman's terms the increase in difficulty is inversely proportional to amount of coin you can mine. The harder the difficulty the harder it is to mine coin. Right now difficulty is rising at about 18% per 3 days. This can and will change since all you miners are soon going to jump on the band wagon. Your sanity: I am not going to tell you to keep calm and chive on because quiet frankly that is stupid. What I will tell you not to get too carried away. You will pull you hair out. Seriously. Next thing you will need is a simple tool. A mining profitability calculator. I have two favourite ones. coinwarz I like this one cause it is simple. The fields are self explanatory. Try it. bitcoinwisdom I like this one because it is a more real life scenario calculator and more complicated one (not really). It also takes increasing difficulty into account. Please note: This is the absolute basic info you need. If you have more questions feel free to ask and or google it! More Below.
Substratum is a decentralised web hosting network. On this basis, we can look at a current real-time market leader. I have picked GoDaddy as an example. GoDaddy 2014 revenue calcs: 36.6% of revenue comes from web hosting and other related products Using 2016 revenue of $1.8 billion $658 million in revenue is for hosting. Substratum makes revenue through micro transactions in web hits. So, once micro transactions (made in Substrate) are received say the Substrate is held in the hosts wallet for a day? Then it would be sold on the open market (for litecoin or bitcoin or Fiat) back to new hosts. So assuming Substratum takes all of GoDaddys market, $1.8million in Substrate exists throughout the network locked in wallets per day. $1.8million worth of Substrate is bought per day and $1.8million worth is sold per day (Assuming people will hold onto this for a day before selling on an exchange). So, the market value is $0.005 on the basis that people will hold the Substrate for a day. This is based on total tokens of 352,000,000 being available. If more tokens are held speculatively then the market value would increase due to limited supply. *Edit: the above should be Value of the Substrate Token. The network itself is a store of value for the profits taken by the people/companies who will provide the hosting.
Chance Me for MIT, Stanford, CMU, UC Berkeley, etc. (Computer Science)
Schools: MIT, Stanford, CMU (SCS) [Planning to apply ED], Caltech, Princeton, UCB (EECS), Harvey Mudd College, UCSD, Cal Poly SLO Intended Major: CS + EE Double Major; Emphasis in Machine Learning and Data Management Hook: In-State for UCs Demographics: Asian, Male, Non-Competitive Public School from California Rank: At Least Top 9% (School doesn't rank) ACT (One Sitting): C: 36, E: 36, M: 36, R: 36, S: 35, STEM: 36, Essay: 8/12 (Sending this) SAT (One Sitting): C: 1520, R&W: 720, M: 800, Essay: 17/24 SAT Math Level 2: 800 SAT Chemistry: 800 UW/W GPA: 4.00 / 4.3 Coursework (9th-11th): AP Chem (4), AP Calc AB (5), AP Calc BC (5), AP US History (5), AP Lang (4), AP Physics C: Mechanics (5), 2 CS Courses at CC (Both are As); Took the most rigorous courseload Awards:
USACO Gold Perfect Score
AP Scholar with Distinction
PSAT Commended Scholar
Google Code-In 2016 Participant
CM Piano Branch Honors Recital (5% of CM)
CM Piano Advanced Level
MVP of JV Swim Team
ECs (My weak point):
CS/EE Research @ Local UC - Ported an open source benchmark tool to Mac OS X (may consider uploading a binary under my Research Portfolio); developed a data visualization website for the tool which is featured on my lab’s website; worked on some FPGA stuff in Verilog - (11th + 12th grade)
Teaching Assistant of a CS Program for HS Students hosted by UC Professors. I lectured and mentored HS students, so it is my main volunteering. Considering writing about this in my essays.
Cryptocurrency Enthusiast - Trade thousands of dollars in Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Litecoin - made back over 150% in profit returns - self-studied a large textbook on Bitcoins - about to release a cryptocurrency app for Android
Co-founder and CTO of a Startup Company - (11th - 12th grade) - developed the website, but kind of discontinued
President/Founder of 3D Design Club - 1 year only
Android App Developer - Will publish a couple apps on the Google Play Store
Attended some Hackathons - Developer for Android, but no awards won
Volunteered at Library - Help elders learn computers and 3D Printing classes - only around 20 hours in total...
JV Swimming - won some awards (2 years)
Piano and Violin for over 7 years, in my school’s orchestra (9th-12th grade)
Assuming that my essays are good enough, what would be my chances? If you chance, please add in an explanation why. Thanks!
Blockchain to fix horribly broken e-mail system like it is today?
E-mail as it is, is horribly broken. Horrendously broken. It wasn't that many years ago that you could be assured your e-mail reaches whoever you were mailing to. Today it is a mere suggestion, that perhaps this should be delivered to this person, at least for any automated e-mail. This seems to be creeping to manual, organic email as well. Hell, we are seeing even internal e-mails being flagged by spamassassin as spam, organic, human written conversations! In that instance, the spamassassin is also maintained by one of the largest hosting providers in the world... Hotmail/MS services has been for years (atleast about 4 years now!) been silently dropping email, not all, but some. There's a bit of relief lately, as they have started to favor a bit more marking as spam, rather than silently dropping. I know, most email users don't see this problem, but those who use email a lot to do their work, and those who need to send automated emails (say, welcome e-mails for a service) this is a big problem. (Disclaimer, for us, our niche of hosting probably causes flagging as well. Our site is blocked by many corporate firewalls for example) Blockchain to the rescue? This is an idea i've been toying around with a few years. What if any single e-mail would cost a faction of a cent, and who receives the e-mail, gets paid for it? Now that would solve a lot of problems. I realize there has been some half assed attempts on blockchain based e-mail, but they are about replacing email (never going to happen). Using blockchain to enhance the current experience, with least minimal friction should be the goal, not re-inventing the wheel. Imagine a say 0.01 cent (0.0001 USD) cost per e-mail. This price would not be cost prohibitive even for free e-mail service providers (Ad revenue etc. should exceed this value), never mind any legit e-mail users. Especially considering you get paid for receiving. So all legit e-mail services would work rather well regardless of the cost. (never mind free email service could profit from this) Spam however? To send 1 million emails you would need to pay 100$. How many spammers would continue doing so? At least it makes things much harder, not so easy to use a botnet to send your email when you need to include your private key(s) to the botnet, or make some kind of private key management system, makes more complicated. Small business newsletters? Say you need to send 100k e-mails to legit customers, 10$ is nothing. To human time crafting that newsletter is order (possibly orders) of magnitude greater than that. Price would also fluctuate as per the market. The most difficult thing would probably be setting the self balancing mechanisms to keep per mail cost sensible. As such, the biggest hurdle in this might not be technical at all. Technically, how could this work? Sender sends a TX for e-mail they are sending for recipient. This TX contains message with mail ID, and a segment which can be used with the email contents to unlock the private key for the payment. This way it is verified that recipient mail servers receives and reads the email. Once the recipient server has calculated the private key, they can either TX the received sum to their wallet, or this needs to be formatted so that once the sender has sent it, they cannot recover the private key and double spend (technical hurdle A. For someone who knows their stuff unlikely to be an major hurdle) Step by step repeat: * Sender checks if recipient has "MailCoin" capability * Sender sends TX to recipient * Sender sends the email to recipient * Recipient notices on mail header (say x-mailcoin-tx: TXID_HERE) that this is a "mailcoin" mail * Recipient checks TX if it has been received * Recipient puts the mail on delivery queue, antispam is instructed of heavy negative score (MTA admin configurable) * Recipient claims the value of the TX (this is the hurdle A). Recipient can only claim the TX value in case they have received the full e-mail. (Question, can this step be pushed even further down the delivery chain, but still remain MTA only level without mail client support?). Most likely solution is that the header contains the encrypted private key, and chain TX contains the key to decrypt that private key to claim the coins, or vice-versa? Once recipient has the email & payment, they simply mark on their Antispam a automatic lower score and deliver it normally. E-mail server side we have several components:
Recipient server needs component to check for TXs
Sender server needs component to send a TX, and check if the recipient has the capability
Recipient server OR dns zone has indicator the recipient can utilize "MailCoins" (DNS IN TXT field most likely, ie. mailcoin.domain.com. IN TXT publicaddress)
Most typical scenario would be the Recipient server works as outgoing as well, with single wallet. So depending on your mail volume, do you send or receive more on that wallet you might never need to worry about the coins (except for value going skyhigh and having like 10k $ worth of "MailCoins"). So perhaps additional components on per use case are needed, or more likely rudimentary scripting capability (ie. "MailCoin" daemon api) to keep the balances in check. Technical hurdle B: This needs to be super super simple to setup. Or sufficient financial incentive. One would need to develop standard components & configs for exim, postfix, and other MTAs. Infact, make it autogenerate wallet ID etc. and easy to replace or import private keys etc. to put in coins for sending if you need to. Privacy: On the blockchain you would not see the e-mail contents, only that e-mail likely took place (TX with mail UUID) to recipient. If sender can be deciphered it depends on them if it can be traced who they were. Automatic mixers? :) Recipient can also keep cycling the receive addresses to keep things private if they want to. The biggest problem i see here, is that if an attacker can deduce the sender and/or recipient, it might to lead to some issues out of the scope of technical solutions. If attacker could read the emails, they would already have accomplished MitM and could just grab all e-mails. Default implementation should be so, that from recipient address outsider cannot deduce the recipient server nor hostname. Also, if attacker gains access to your mail with full headers, they could see the TXs in blockchain. MTA might need to scrub mailcoin related headers (yuck, scrubbing headers ....) for paranoid users, but most likely solution is that recipient retransmits those mailcoins as soon as they got the private key for the balance. Blockchain: Blocks needs to be done every 10seconds or so, it needs to be fast. Preferrably even every 5 seconds, as not to cause any undue delay. Then again, if your application is reliant on receiving email within seconds, one should consider another means for communicating. Imho, email should be considered a little bit like snail mail, but on internet pace: Couple minutes delay is just OK. Block size given the e-mail volume needs to be fairly large as well, considering the time between blocks. This is technical hurdle C: Hosting the full blockchain. I can easily foresee that this would grow to be terabytes in size. However, any large email operator would have vested interest in ensuring smooth operation of the blockchain, and for them, running a full node would have neglible cost. (Technical hurdle C) Single email sent using the system could easily have TX contents of 100 bytes + TX headers + block headers etc. Say 100 bytes, and 100 million emails per day: 9.31GiB per day, 3 399GiB per year, 5 years later: 16.60 TiB just for the mail TXs. Some estimate there is 200+ billion emails per day, but we all know large portion of this is spam. But even at 50 billion emails a day, 100 bytes per mail TX would add to 4.55TiB per day! So optimizing the blockchain size is obviously going to be important. The volume will be obviously much smaller as semi-spam (those daily half opt-in spamvertising from companies you know) will be lower as well. So probs 100+ billion emails per day at 100% adoption. Blockchain should then be compressed, the whole block. Algorithm probably should favor speed over compression rate, and should be task specifically optimized (needs a simple reference release, where you can just stream the block contents into it and get output as compressed or uncompressed). The more compression there is, the more full nodes will be hosted by smaller operators :) For large e-mail server clusters there should be central store for the blockchain, but this can be accessed on the system administratoconfig level already. The MTA components will just remotely talk to single full node daemon (so not really different from many implementations in existence right now), instead of each one running locally a full node. At today's cheapest hosting rates 16.60TiB is roughly around 85-100€ a month. Purchase cost per 8TB drive is around 230€ mark right now, externals are cheaper. Not an issue for any even semi serious mail provider. Not even issue for datahoarder individuals. However at 100 billion mails per day: 9.09TiB per day added, which is prohibitively large! We should be targeting something like 20bytes per mail final storage spent, or even less. If it looks like it is going to grow really large, full node needs to have configurable multiple storages, so they can store parts of the blockchain on multiple different devices (ie. individual might choose to have it on 4 different external drives). Filesystem side optimizations are needed as well, but these are fairly simple, just split into multiple subdirectories by the 10 thousand blocks or so, ie. 1 for blocks 1-10k, 2 for blocks 10 001 to 20k etc. Filesystems get exponentially slower the more files there is per directory. 10k might start to show slowing down, but is not significant yet. Nodes could also implement secondary compression (compress multiple blocks together), if the blockchain starts to become stupid large. If it starts to become impossible to maintain, we could possibly implement a scrubbing methodology, where very old blocks get the TX contents wiped as they are not necessary anymore. Should not be an issue Blocks with 10second target generated per annum: 3 153 600 Mails per 10second: 115 740 e-mails per 10second block. Final compressed size (say 20 bytes per mail): 2.20MiB + headers etc. per block Let's start small and allow linear growth to this, say 0.1% per day (36.5% annual) and start from 20k / 512KiB. After 3 years: 41.9k / 1072.64KiB per block, After 10 years: 93k / 2380.8KiB. (2027 we should have HDDs in the size of 30TB and daily max size for chain growth is 19.61TiB) On the positive side every problem is an opportunity in disguise. If the blockchain is large, once again botnets will have a hard hard time to spamming, they can't host the full blockchain on infected machines. They will need to develop centralized mechanisms on this regard as well. One method i can see is by having TOR client built in, and via .onion domain to anonymize, but this is two way street, security researchers could exploit this (see above about the private keys) as well. Even without botnets, spammers will need to dedicate significant resources to host the full blockchain. On the flip side, if spammer has also mining operation on the same local area network, they have both the income for mailcoins + full blockchain, and could leverage economies of scale, but this too would increase cost. And after all: This is all about increasing cost for spamming, while having the price in vicinity where real e-mail users, real businesses it is not a significant impact, or may even be an income source Client side Zero, Nada changes. No changes to outlook, thunderbird etc. Everything works under the hood at the MTA level. Very easy adoption for the end user. Everything is in the backend, server side. Economics for users Cost of operation has above been shown to increase wildly for spammers. But how about normal use cases? Joe Average: They receive e-mail a lot more than they send, all kinds of order confirmations, invoices, newsletters and other automated e-mail. They will actually earn (however tiny amounts) from using this system. So for the masses, this is a good thing, they will see the earning potentials! which brings us to .... New business opportunities! I could foresee a business setting up spam traps, the more e-mail you receive the more you earn! So it pays to get your receiver into spam lists. You don't ever need to read these, just confirm receive of them. All of sudden we could see even greater numbers of invalid e-mail addresses in spam lists, making spamming ever more expensive! Free email services might proof to be extremely profitable, to the point of potential revenue sharing with Joe Averages (and above spamtraps). Because free email is mostly joe averages, they will have greater influx than outgoing. On the caveat, free email needs to have limits, but due to the low cost and potential of earnings, they could implement "mail credits" system, base is like 20 emails a day, but each received email could increase this credit limit. As such, it makes actually sense for free email services to implement this at the very least on the receiving side. Business mass emailings. A business which has 100k valid e-mails on their database will not have a problem with paying few dozen bucks to have their mass mailing delivered. BUT they will make extra sure the content is good and targeted, something the recipient wants to receive. These will be the biggest spenders on email, apart from spammers. ISPs, hell they get paid to provide e-mail. And they are on the same spot as free email service providers, they stand to earn more than spend! Blockchain economics This is where things might get interesting, there is so much potential. However, there are several things definitively should not be done:
Initial Coin Offerings
Non-consensus chain (ie. whatever devs say, goes!), always has to be consensus
Infinite & preferential supply
1 & 2 are easy, just do not mine outside of testnet prior to launch. (If devs get paid by companies, there is conflict of interest as well, but let's not get into that right now) 3: Miners and/or full node maintainers decide what goes on. Probably miners like bitcoin is supposed to. 4: Infinite & preferential supply: No after the launch "contracts" etc. to give coins to preferential parties, it should remain as on the launch unless majority consensus says there will be a change. Proof of stake is gray area imho, but then again also proof of work is the rich gets richer. Mining: Storage requirement is a blessing in disguise, the massive storages required for this to function means that there will be no central hardware developer who sells all the shovels, without significant other markets. Ie. WD, Seagate, Toshiba the main players. This means algo needs to be based on the full blockchain being hosted. The hashing needs to be so that GPUs are the king most likely, since almost anything good for CPUs is also doable in GPUs. Eventually someone will likely come with ASIC alternative, but due to masses of data it WILL require high bandwidth, high memory. Nothing like bitcoin currently, where low bandwidth, no memory requirement for the ASIC. There needs to be some expensive commodity components in there (RAM, Storage), and as such GPUs are the most likely candidate, and the bottleneck will not likely be computation, but I/O bandwidth. Quickly thinking, previous block could include number of blocks to be included on the next for verification, in a highly compressible format. Let's say difficulty is number of blocks to be hashed, or from difficulty you can calculate number of blocks to be included. Previous blocks miner just chooses on random blocks to be included on the next one. Listing 10 series of blocks to be included, which can include series instructions. It could request block #5729375+100, or #357492+500 stepping 5 (every 5th block). Hell the random generator could use last block as seed for the next one to make it deterministic YET random as the emails and TXs change. (WTF, Did i just solve how the algo needs to work?!?) Only blocks which would differentiate is the first few, and obviously Genesis, for which an "empty" block would be what is to be hashed. Hashing algo could be SHA256 because of the high requirement of streaming data, and most ASIC miners lacking in bandwidth (infact, it could be made compatible with bitcoin, but only those ASICS with higher I/O bandwidth than storage/ram I/O bandwidth is could actually boost the perf) Different hashable list operations could be (on the block list what to be hashed on the next one): * Single block * Block # + number of blocks * Block # + (number of blocks with stepping) * Block # + number of blocks chosen by random using each hashed block as the seed for choosing next one (makes prefetch, preread, caching not work efficiently) * Number of previous blocks mined (ie. 50 last blocks) * Above but with stepping operator * Above but with choose random next X blocks, with variations based on the last hashed, sum of the hashed * All random pickers would have operation modes for the seed to be used: From hashed sum, the whole block, block contents, block header These modes would ensure the blocks are there and makes it a lot dependable on variable factors, RAM speed, I/O seek time, I/O bandwidth. This way we have proof that the miner has access to those blocks in efficient manner and the full blockchain is stored there, even if it is not practically retrievable from him / her over the internet for others to obtain a copy. HOWEVER, due to the data volumes, i think it is given they have fast access, but a miner would probably prefer not to share their blockchain contents to have bandwidth free for their mining, as the deadlines are tight. It could be built into the full node spec that they do not accept new blocks from sources which are not ready to supply any given block, and perhaps even periodic test of this. However, this would be unenforceable if people start running custom coded nodes which disables this, as it is not part of the blockchain calculation. It is not miner's benefit to "waste" precious bandwidth to serve others the vast blockchain, meanwhile it is end users benefit those running full nodes without mining to get them fast. So an equilibrium might be reached, if miners start loosing out because other miners will not share their blocks, they will start offering them, even if prioritized. At 2MiB blocks, 10 second deadline, a miner would preferentially want the new block within 500ms, which would be barely sufficient time for a round trip across the globe. 500ms for 2MiB is 4MiB/s transfer rate inbound, and when block found you want it out even faster, say 250ms you'll need 8MiB/s burst which very very few have at a home. At more usual 1MiB/s it would take 2secs to submit your new block. On the other hand, if you found the block, you'd have immediate access to begin calcing the next one. Block verification needs to be fast, and as such the above difficulty setting alone is not sufficient, there needs to be nonce. Just picking the right block is not guarantee there will be match, so traditional !???? nonce needs to be set as well most likely. As such, a lot of maths needs to be done to ensure this algorithm does not have dead ends, yet ensures certain blocks needs to be read as full and stored fully by the miners, just plain hashes of the blocks is not sufficient. Perhaps it should be block data + nonce, then all the blocks hashes (with nonce, or pre-chosen salt) and to be generated block combined hash with nonce needs to have certain number of zeroes. Needs testing and maths :) So there are many ways to accomplish proof of storage, we'd need just to figure out the which is the best. Sidenote, this same algo could potentially be used with different settings for immutable, forever storage of data. Since there is no continuing cost to store data, TX Fee for every message (data) byte should be very high in such a coin. Supply. Needs to be predictable and easy to understand. It would be preferential the standard mailing out is always 1x MailCoin, albeit coin itself should be practically infinitively divisable, and as such supply needs to be in the trillions eventually. But these things get complicated really fast, so we need to set a schedule. Current email use is very large, so we should have something in the same magnitude. 8640 blocks per day - so maybe 10 000 coins per block == 86 400 000 new coins per day == 31 536 000 000 new coins per year, halving every 2 years. First halving: 63 072 000 000, Second halving: 94 608 000 000, Third (6 years): 110 376 000 000, but only halving 4 or 5 times to keep some new supply for ever increasing adoption and lost coins. Got all the way here? :D Thanks for reading up. Let me know what you think, and let's start a discussion on the feasibility of such a system! I cannot develop this myself, but i would definitively back an effort up in the ways i can if anyone attempts to do something like this :) And i know i got probably many of the details incorrect The main point of the methods described above is ease of adoption. Without adoption any system is worthless, and with email, you just cannot replace it like that (see the attempts trying to replace IPv4 with IPv6 ...), but you can enhance it. adoption is very critical in communications systems. (No one would have a phone if no one else had a phone) Addendum 1: Forgot to add about pricing and markets, read comment here Addendun 2:Bad actors and voting
A small improvement of bitcoinity (You can see what your BTC are worth in real time)
User -Mahn made something similar this week to show the corresponding USD price at BTCChina on bitcoinity. You can find it here: http://www.reddit.com/BitcoinMarkets/comments/1qbuat/i_hacked_bitcoinity_sort_of/ Inspired by his work I thought it would be nice to see how much my BTC are worth at the current price. So I wrote a Greasemonkey script which does exactly that for you: When opening the tab: http://i.imgur.com/EtXgLAY.png After entering your number of BTC: http://i.imgur.com/OtNq7uO.png As long as the tab is open you see hte prices in real time! Update: Included Version 4 from artiomchi here in the main post with the key features! If you want a Version with support for some small investment/profit calculation see his post below. If you want to try it follow this description for Firefox: Get Greasemonkey here After Greasemonkey is installed go to Extras -> Greasemonkey -> new Userscript http://i.imgur.com/uA6ABvQ.png OK Then Extras -> Add-Ons -> Userscripts, Right-click on the script -> Edit
I understand that BC mining isn't exactly lucrative when done on a small scale, but I do have a more practical question. It seems that one of the biggest costs is A/C. Well I live in Northern Canada, and it sometimes gets to be -50 here in the winter. Would it be reasonable that profit, or ROI could be greatly increased by running a 6 month operation, by opening a window? edit: forgot to mention that we pay about 100-150 in heating per month; so I was thinking of a two birds one stone. The idea would be to invest maybe 2-5k in equipment, and even if I don't have to heat and don't mine a single BC, I would be saving about 800 a year in electricity due to no longer needing to heat. edit2: here's the calcs I came up with for this product https://www.amazon.ca/AntMiner-T9-11-5TH-0-126W-Bitcoin/dp/B01NCX6ZPO/ref=sr_1_7?ie=UTF8&qid=1485137997&sr=8-7&keywords=antminer http://www.coinwarz.com/calculators/bitcoin-mining-calculato?h=11500.00&p=1450.00&pc=0.09&pf=0.00&d=392963262344.37000000&r=12.50000000&er=927.60000000&hc=0.00 Total estimated profit : $1,348.33 USD: or about 1.8 years; however, add the about 800 CAD I spend on heating my place, this becomes about 1900 USD, or about 1.4 years (estimated). That'd be like buying a stock with a 75% dividend yield. Any thoughts? edit 3: forgot that I could only reasonably run this for 6-8 months out of the year, so approximately a 2 year ROI. Still, that's pretty damn good if you ask me, no?
Question - Formula for bitcoin mining profitability that factors increasing difficulty over time
Hi guys, I'm making some basic trackers in Google Sheets for my cloud mining earnings. A profitability calc that factors in cloud mining fees and, ideally - difficulty increases. My question is what is this formula, and what data does it need - to modify Bitcoin produced over the next 12 months assuming that the difficulty steadily increases at a rate comparable to the past 12 months (~478% / ~1.3% daily). What is the formula that allows for a sliding scale over time? Say I was trying to figure out where 7.73TH/s would get me at: D1 W1 M1 M2, 3, 4, 5 etc. Y1 Any help is much appreciated, cheers.
Bitcoin Calculator. The CoinDesk Bitcoin Calculator tool allows you to convert any amount to and from bitcoin (up to six decimal places) and your preferred world currencies, with conversion rates The Bitcoin price and the total network hash rate. The Bitcoin network hash rate is growing at a rate of 0.4527678% per day. This means if you buy 50 TH/s of mining hardware your total share of the network will go DOWN every day compared to the total network hash rate. Find out what your expected return is depending on your hash rate and electricity cost. Find out if it's profitable to mine Bitcoin, Ethereum, Litecoin, DASH or Monero. Do you think you've got what it takes to join the tough world of cryptocurrency mining? *Please note that values are only estimations based on past performance - real values can be lower or higher. Exchange rate of 1 BTC = 9264.87 USD was used. Bitcoin Profitability Calculator – BTC Mining Profit Calculator. Enter your set up information in the form below. Do not enter commas, only dots for decimal separator. Bitcoin difficulty. Bitcoins per Block (BTC/block) Conversion rate (USD/BTC) Hash rate .
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